Monday, June 20, 2016

Leave back in the lead in stunning YouGov upset

This is a suitably surprising end to a bizarre day.  In the morning and early afternoon, the markets (of both the betting and financial varieties) were pointing heavily towards Remain, which led to some suspicions that there might be inside knowledge of forthcoming poll numbers.  Those suspicions seemed to have been borne out when Ben Page of Ipsos-Mori eccentrically revealed on Twitter that two of his firm's competitors were about to release polls putting Remain in the lead.  We knew that YouGov and ORB polls were pending, so those seemed like the most obvious candidates - which suggested a very real chance that a third successive YouGov poll might show a swing to Remain, and perhaps vindicate the over-excitable commentators who have been "calling" the referendum for Remain on the basis of seemingly no evidence whatever.  But as it turns out, one of the Remain leads was in fact a NatCen survey that took place over an extended four-week period, and that therefore tells us absolutely nothing about very recent trends.  Against all expectations, the new YouGov poll actually puts Leave back in the lead -

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 42% (-2)
Leave 44% (+1)

The fieldwork was apparently conducted between Friday and Sunday, so was entirely after the murder of Jo Cox.  The YouGov poll immediately before the tragedy had an identical result to this one, so on the face of it there doesn't appear to have been any direct and lasting impact on public opinion.  (If there has been an impact, it's being masked by the quirks of sampling variation.)

The other half of what we were expecting to happen did happen - the ORB phone poll put Remain in the lead, but there's some pretty good news to be found for Leave even there.  As I've mentioned a number of times, the ORB phone series has been driving me mad because there don't seem to be any definitive 'headline figures' - the Telegraph (who commission the polls) headline the figures that exclude anyone who isn't absolutely certain to vote, while ORB themselves usually seem to prefer the unfiltered numbers.  On the latter count, the Remain lead has actually fallen from 5% to 2% over the last week, leaving us firmly in 'statistical tie' territory -

Remain 49% (n/c)
Leave 47% (+3)

Remarkably, that's the second-best showing for Leave in the unfiltered sample of any ORB phone poll since the series started in March.  (And in retrospect, the outright best showing for them looks like it was a fluke result, because no other phone pollster was reporting similar numbers at the time.)

Curiously, though, the turnout-filtered figures (which until now have generally been better for Leave) shoot off in completely the opposite direction -

Remain 53% (+5)
Leave 46% (-3)

As I always used to point out about TNS polls during the indyref, the trend shown by turnout-filtered figures tends to be much more volatile, because significantly fewer respondents are left after the filter is applied.  So it's very hard to say whether this poll is picking up that Remain supporters have genuinely become much more likely to vote over the last week, or whether the greater margin of error in the filtered numbers is causing an illusory Remain boost.  For what it's worth, YouGov have failed to detect any sudden reversal of the enthusiasm gap - their poll continues to suggest that Leave voters are more likely to be absolutely certain to vote.

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

As a final adjustment to the time-frame covered by the Poll of Polls, from now on only polls that were at least partly conducted within the last seven days will be taken into account.  As I mentioned last week, I've made an executive decision that ORB's turnout-filtered numbers will be used for the rest of the campaign - in the last update that was boosting Leave slightly, but now it's helping Remain.

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 45.4% (+0.8)
Leave 45.8% (-0.8)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 43.5% (+1.2)
Leave 45.7% (+0.3)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 47.2% (+0.4)
Leave 45.8% (-2.0)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last seven days. The online average is based on six polls - three from YouGov, one from Opinium, one from Survey Monkey and one from BMG. The telephone average is based on five polls - two from Survation, one from ORB, one from BMG and one from Ipsos-Mori.)

67 comments:

  1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 20, 2016 at 10:20 PM

    Looks like the Nat sis will have to be content with the English taxpayer subsidy.

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    1. You think Boris,Farage and IDS will treat Scotland well ?
      Are you a some kind of masochist, eager for punishment ?

      Delete
  2. Looks like Glasgow Working Class 2 is happy to be on the same side as Britain First, BNP and the Orange Order for the 2nd referendum in a row.

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    1. Orange order are 60% remain. They tend to do anything the establishment say.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 20, 2016 at 11:08 PM

      Nah tosspot just a Labour man that wants brexit. Have you considered the taxpayers are subsidising inept not required politicians and their floozies. You are weak in mind and an idiot that wants to be exploited and clearly not Scottish.

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    3. It isn't it is only a coward.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 2:06 AM

      I should clarify that I'm not really from Glasgow, but Epsom, which is fully of people who are clearly not Scottish.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 2:12 AM

      ^full, not fully. I guess Alan MacBeth is not the only non-Scot who is weak in mind around here, haha.

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  3. But the Goldman Sachs team are the "progressive" choice?

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  4. The troll is neither Glasgow nor working class. The troll is a blue Tory agent provocateur.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 20, 2016 at 11:11 PM

      I thought the blue and yellow Nat si Tories wanted too stay in!

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 20, 2016 at 11:52 PM

      The best result will be a Remain vote on Thursday.

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    3. Why don't you feck ff idiot! away back to school moron. Get this idiot of this site or it will be the only one left it gets on my nerves The Commie fool!!!!

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  5. The telegraph headline has 53/46 for remain. More propaganda?

    And please everyone, try to ignore the village idiot. Its not his fault his parents were too closely related.

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    1. I've tried to explain that in the blogpost. From the word go, there has been ambiguity about which set of ORB figures should be treated as the headline numbers. The Telegraph prefer the turnout filtered numbers (which in this case give Remain a 7% lead), but ORB themselves and John Curtice's site generally go with the unfiltered numbers, which have the Remain lead down to 2%.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 20, 2016 at 11:14 PM

      Clearly your older brother was your father blue eyes.

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    3. Clearly the best part of you ran down your mothers legs.

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    4. I think the folk who are voting leave don't read the telegraph....

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  6. Glasgow Working Class 2June 20, 2016 at 11:54 PM

    I have been fooling around. Vote Remain on Thursday.

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    1. I think I'm going to cry when Remain wins on Thursday

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  7. At this late stage the undecided will prove the crucial factor . Conventional wisdom with regard to referenda is that undecided voters tend to opt for the status quo .

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  8. It's Ipsos MORI (MORI is an acronym: Market and Opinion Research International), not Ipsos-Mori.

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    1. We've had this conversation before, and I explained to you that I've no plans to change the way I write it. "Ipsos-Mori" is fine.

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  9. That GWC2 guy sure is a weirdo. Seems to have some kind of fetish for Nazis and what Nicola Sturgeon wears as panties. Weirdo.

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  10. An acronym is a word in common use but which is formed from an abbreviation, like 'radar' or 'laser'. Mori (or MORI) is an abbreviation, not an acronym.

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  11. Can we all just ignore GWC 2? Seriously, he feeds off people's responses and getting attention. Just stop responding to him.

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  12. https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/left-case-brexit I wonder if anyone SNP actually reads widely/think critically?

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  13. https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/left-case-brexit I wonder if anyone connected with the SNP actually reads widely or thinks critically?

    The left-wing case against the EU is overwhelming, robust and intellectually coherent - something the increasingly dreadful Sturgeon is not.

    I'd make this point. The SNP do not own my vote, nor my mind. The lack of any debate within the SNP is worrying to see. Not a single MP or MSP diverges from the simple-minded groupthink that the EU is "progressive" and the implication that if one disagrees that you are acting against the interests of Scotland or Scottish independence.

    I for one strongly object to this unpleasant experience/undertone. Where is the sign of open debate and intelligent disagreement within SNP circles. If the 'dear leader' cannot and shouldn't be questioned under any circumstances what feedback mechanism exist to correct mistaken thinking on the 'dear leader's' part?

    Just as the SNP do not own the votes of independence supporters, nor do they own Scottish independence or sovereignty - but act as if they do. It's deeply problematic

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    1. I hear what you're saying, Joe. When Scotland regains its independence I'll be voting for a party which advocates leaving the EU - as it stands. If the EU makes substantial changes [a big "if"] I might change my mind. Until then I'm concentrating on what's best to achieve Scotland's independence, and that's to vote Remain because I believe England will vote Leave, and thus indyref2 to follow.

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    2. Of course there's a left wing argument for leaving the EU but if you think that ideal will be realised by leaving then you're deluding yourself.
      In all likelihood, a Leave vote will facilitate a further lurch to the right, with the prominent leave figures of Johnson, Gove and IDS replacing Cameron, Osborne, et al in the positions of real power.
      If we lived in an ideal world then I'd happily vote leave to move away from the EU, which is everything your link suggests, but we have to be pragmatic here.
      We'd be leaving one right wing construct to move another, potential and probably, worse one.

      mandela

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    3. Joe, I understand your frustrations with the misshapen bound feet of Scottish politics as currently manifested. This is the jelly mold that all 'Scottish' political parties end up having to conform to, when dealing with Scotland's political realities within the UK.

      Whither it be Tories up until the mid fifties, Labour up to the mid nineties and now the SNP, all attempts by the Scots electorate to speak loudly with a single voice. This is an attempt to have our national identity expressed in a singularly political manner within the very difficult non democratic limitations of a unitary state. Witness our love affair with 'tactical' voting. It's not new.

      These limitations have not changed, therefore the electorates behaviour has not changed and so, the political party leadership/elite's response to that electorate has not changed.

      The SNP, if kept operating under the same system as the Scottish Tories, Scottish Labour and Scottish Liberals operated, will eventually come to operate in the same corrupted ways. These are the political realities of power when operating on a day to day basis in the corrupted non democratic framework of the UK.

      You (me and every other Yes voter) are yearning for the luxury of starting to tackle those political corruptions and get rebuilding our society. We are chomping at the bit! But... its not possible yet, and crying over the frustrations of that truth is absolutely counter productive to properly focusing on the structural realities of what WILL break that corrupting political system which Scottish party politics has been purposely subjected to and trapped within by the UK state.

      After all this chat, it's simple really Joe. No matter how cogent the lefts argument is, pro or anti europe, you, me and the rest of the Scottish electorate are not currently in the building where nation state's get to decide such matters.

      The ability to meaningfully decide on the rights and wrongs of the Euro debate are denied to Scotland as an electorate. Face that sad truth Joe and then use your vote to best secure a situation for the Scots electorate where one day soon we CAN decide on those merits, rights and wrongs, and not only on the matter of Europe.

      If your priority is Scottish Independence, an early second Indyref's best chance requires you to:

      Vote Remain (if you are resident in Scotland) and Leave (if you are
      resident in England).

      braco

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    4. Hasn't Jim Sillars been all over the place advising people to vote Leave? I'd say he counts as "connected with the SNP".

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    5. Well said braco.

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  14. I see the 'bring a pen to the polling station' brigade have donned their tinfoil and come out to play on social media.

    Because if 'The Man' wanted to mess with your vote, he'd totally try and rub out all those crosses without leaving any traces or dents in the paper, rather than just crumpling them up and replacing them entirely...

    Presumably they'll also be wearing face masks to the polling station to filter out the mind-altering chemtrails that the New World Order will be spraying the night before the vote.

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    1. "The Man"? Are you being rude to Ruthie?

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  15. I reckon Remain will win the day by 53% to 47%, and the UK will be kept in the EU on the strength of Scotland's Remain vote of plus 60% + - then watch the shit hit the fan..

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    1. If Remain wins by 53% to 47% then Scotland (pop 5m) would not be the deciding factor in the result. So your fan will remain pristine.

      London (pop 8.5m) might do it though. Or possibly left-handed people (6.4m), if they really go heavily for Remain. Who can say.

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    2. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/10/eu-referendum-scottish-remain-vote-could-tip-balance

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    3. And from John Curtice (via the Daily Mail..)

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641427/Scotland-England-EU-against-experts-warn-polls-suggest-referendum-result-close-call.html

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    4. There's only a very small window in which the Scottish vote could swing the UK one. I don't know why so many people seem to have their heart set on this remote possibility, or even what they hope it would achieve. All it'll do is lead to even more anti-Jock whingeing in BTL comments.

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    5. Not at 53 to 47 though, unless you think Scotland is going to break >70% Remain. It's not politics, just maths.

      You need a tighter result than that if you want Scotland to be the swing factor.

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    6. Plus the whole argument is spurious to begin with.

      We're not a bloc vote. Scottish people may vote Remain, but it does not automatically follow that they voted Remain because they are Scottish.

      Correlation does not equal causation.

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    7. What does that even mean? If Scotland votes Remain and the UK votes Leave, then self-evidently Scotland takes a different view.

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    8. Yep - you got there before me, James..

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  16. @ Dan Huil at 10.21

    I'm not having any success trying to reply to you within the nested comments, so am having to make a separate post.

    I hear what you (and other people) are saying, but:

    What if Leave doesn't win in England?
    What if they do, but there isn't an IndyRef2?
    What if there is, but we lose?
    What if we win, but there are no parties standing for election who oppose the EU? (Currently, only Solidarity does, as far as I know.)
    I can't see that there would be EU referendum in an iScotland.

    I campaigned to leave the EEC in 1975, I'm still waiting 41 years later for all those "reforms from within", I've been arguing against the EU throughout that period, and I don't think I can bring myself to vote contrary to that, on the off chance that the votes of X people in Scotland and Y people in England cause a particular outcome.

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    1. "be another EU referendum in Scotland...."

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    2. That's fine anon, it just means that you have uncovered your own particular priorities.

      There are just as many what ifs regarding Scottish Independence should leave win. You are just not grading the likely scenarios of how best to achieve that overall leave win through the prism of 'best likely benefit to Scottish Independence'.

      This legitimately may not be your priority, but it is mine and many others on this site.

      braco

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    3. Does help to highlight why referendums are not some awesome democratic panacea though.

      We're being asked one question, and a bunch of people are instead trying to answer a different one.

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    4. Thanks for the reply, braco; I'm going to disagree with you though!

      I think I am looking through that prism - but what I see is different from what you see. I don't think independence is a likely enough consequence of Scotland = Remain/ England = Leave to vote against my beliefs.

      People who genuinely like the EU should of course vote to stay, here. What they should do in England, I don't know - I dislike tactical voting generally.

      (The link that Joe Kinnear has provided, both here and on Wings, includes the opinion that Brexit makes independence less likely, but would be good for a Labour revival. I'm not convinced that's what Joe himself favours, so it may have been a mistake to post the link.)

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    5. I disagree with that section the article - the substantive elements of it - the technocratic and undemocratic nature of the EU I 100% agree with. Scotland will become independent if and when a majority feel the UK doesn't work or the prospect of independence seems inviting. It's a longer term project that silly tactics around a major problem - the undemocratic and dysfunctional EU.

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    6. The death of the Labour party in Scotland is unlikely to be reversed.

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    7. Yeah anon, I detest tactical voting too, but (apart from Indyrefs) that's all that's left to those focused on achieving Scottish Independence in the current UK political system.

      Everything unfortunately ends up getting assessed in that context. Can't wait until that necessity no longer exists and I can vote like any other normal national. It will be great, but until then... that's how it is.

      Glad for you, but can't agree either.

      braco

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  17. Even if Europe’s left parties do succeed in forging a common program, the EU is not the kind of political entity whose approach to the world can be altered by popular politics. Popular politics is precisely what the EU was designed to obstruct. Like independent central banks and constitutional courts, its institutions are essentially technocratic. Technocracy is not (as some like to pretend) a neutral or rational system of government. Instead, it confers immense power on culturally select bodies whose prejudices will be those of the class their members are drawn from.

    There is no "reformed" EU on the ballot paper nor in any realistic future.

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  18. Joe K, which Union is currently the greatest danger to Scottish interests? Which one imposes WMD on its main center of population. Which declares war and sends our citizens to kill and be killed? Which sets our priorities on social provisions? Which sets and collects our taxes and then decides what spending level is appropriate to our needs?

    One Union at a time. It's that simple if any progress is to be made (whatever direction you might want any future Independent Scotland to move in)

    braco

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    1. Which Union is actually on the ballot paper?

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    2. For Scotland... Neither. The vote itself however does hold the distinct possibility (depending on the form of the overall result) of bringing about a ballot paper that Scotland as a sovereign entity CAN have its say on.

      braco

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  19. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 1:47 PM

    And Sturgeon is now playing the project fear game. Telling women they could lose maternity rights. Maybe some Nat si could inform her that it was the Wilson Gov that introduced maternity rights. Not the corrupt EU.

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    1. Did anyone place an order for mashed crayons and bile? Anyone? Recipe's been cooked in impotent rage...

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  20. On the SNP – it badly needs to raise its game on every front. Virtue signalling about ‘evil Tories’ and screaming ‘it’s our pound too’ is simple-minded pish that will not win over small u Unionist Scotland. Bovine conformity on all matters will not win over small u Unionist Scotland, a cult of the ‘dear leader’ will not win over small u Unionist Scotland. And jumping upon Project Fear the Goldman Sachs version (change is too risky) is utterly useless politics. Cheerleaders for idiocy does the cause of Scottish independence no favours at all.

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    1. And if you want an Indy Scotland i'll eat an ex Liberal leaders hat.

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    2. Joe : I think your own personal disappointment that the SNP do not share your views on the EU is shining through. It doesn't mean they've made a strategic mistake.

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    3. Well I have supported Scottish independence for my entire adult life. But believe whatever you like.

      Can you tell me why it's clever politics for the SNP to get on board with the idea that change is dangerous and risky in one context (the EU) yet be the party of change in another (Scottish independence)? All the experts on Brexit (it will trash the economy etc) will say precisely the same in any 2nd indyref. And the SNPs position will be what precisely? Change is too dangerous/risky?

      Try thinking things through Christ almighty.

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    4. I want out of the EU, i think, but as someone that wants Independence, i am voting Remain.

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    5. It's not even that the SNP are pro EU (I think for a number of reasons - not all entirely good) but it's as much the way they have conducted themselves. Look if their is split decision, Indyref2 and Scottish independence I would take it (even with an idiotic currency union). BUT I have enormous doubts about the likelihood of success via that set of circumstances.

      Some virtue signalling about whatever the issue of the day is isn't a substantial political strategy, nor indeed is clichéd anti Tory rhetoric. I really would like to see some intellectual honesty and evidence of serious thought within the SNP leadership. Sadly I see very little of either. Sovereignty and democracy (the link between the demos and polis) are critical to any conception of the political - have a read of Carl Schmitt on sovereignty - and yet it's a set of issues the SNP leadership seem very uncomfortable with. Why for example the offer of independence lite last time? A massive blunder. Sovereignty suggests an independent currency not an asymmetrical loss of major sovereignty in unbalanced monetary union.

      Are they any intellectual heavyweights in the higher levels of the SNP. I have my doubts. So we shall have to agree to disagree on this.

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  21. @Joking here.
    I've been active on pro Indy blogs for 3 or 4 years. I haven't seen you posting before, yet you say you are a life long Nationalist. Why didn't you get involved during the referendum?
    What would you rather have 2 years from now? An Indy Scotland in Europe, or still in the UK out of Europe?

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  22. @James...I hate this BS of looking at "trends" over two day periods.....

    Check out how Leave has performed in ORB from almost exactly one month ago. 18-22 May.....

    Remain has dropped from 58% to 49% that IS statistically significant so is leave going from 38 to 47.

    Me thinks and I think you believe as well this is indeed a very close horse race, turnout is the name of the game. But from my southerly vantage point there seems to be no turnout mechanism like a general election or as I believe the SNP did with inyref.

    I am a supporter of LabourLeave but am plugged into Labour and there is not much going on from a Labour viewpoint in my areas to "turn out the vote." Though Labour in my area is very much leave.

    George S

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