Friday, June 24, 2016

It's official : Scotland is to be dragged out of the European Union against its will

Unfortunately I had to close the previous thread because of an abusive anonymous commenter, but feel free to continue the discussion below.  A few miscellaneous points on this extraordinary morning...

* Against all the expectations, online polls have emerged as more accurate than telephone polls in this campaign.  (Although Populus was a huge outlier in that regard, and it's been almost as bad a night for Populus as it was for David Cameron.)

* The 'wisdom of crowds' theory in relation to polling has been busted.  That was the idea that you get a more accurate forecast if you ask people to predict the result, rather than give their own voting intention.  In fact, voting intention polls have proved to be much more accurate - all of the prediction questions went heavily in Remain's favour.

* Never again will anyone be remotely impressed by the argument that movements on the currency and betting markets are a better guide to a likely election result than public opinion polls.

* * *

I had an unexpectedly eventful night, because I was interviewed live on Canadian TV just after midnight. It's only the third time I've been interviewed on the mainstream media, and this was completely different from the two previous occasions because it was done from the comfort of my living room via an iPad that I frantically had to ask to borrow at very short notice. I was able to give a little context about how differently the referendum was being viewed in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK, and also how for many people Westminster is the problem rather than Brussels.

85 comments:

  1. I am gutted ,I want Independence for Scotland but I wanted the Uk to remain in the EU, to have it confirmed yet again that how we vote is of no consequence south of the border is depressing.Surely now , those who voted NO the last time will see how futile their view of Democracy in the UK is ? We will only get whatever is voted for south of the border...it is now time for us to go it alone, if not now then when ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who do you trust to push for Indy2?

      We already know the overwhelmingly popular answer for most scots and SNP members.

      Delete
    2. Britnats have decided: Scotland and England are going their seperate ways.

      Delete
  2. Why do people ALWAYS assume bookies know something that punters don't? Bookies set their odds strictly according to betting patterns. They didn't predict a "stay" vote, a load of stupid punters did and the bookies set their odds accordingly, that's all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You mean the Bookies are reactive not predictive?

      Not that the pollsters covered themselves in glory either mind. Still, someone has to pretend they aren't little better than methodologically informed guesswork mixed with frantic arsecovering.

      Delete
    2. i don't know. It seems most had it close and many people seem to wait till the end still undecided. How the eff can you be wrong if y9u ask 100 people and 46 say yes and 43 say no . of the 11 you have an issue where there is no history. I also Think it's obvious now that we have a consistent pattern of conservative voters just plain lying a lot. Shyness is a sometimes thing. 40 years of giving an opposite answer is just ratfucking.the most accurate poll in the USA is the Field poll for California. They call a rolling 40 percent extra each poll from previous elections to compare answers.the actual same people 4 years later. This allows them to adjust for the liars.not sure why other pollsters don't.

      Delete
  3. Just wanted to say thanks. Been reading you avidly for a few weeks (though strangely unable to comment from work even anonymously).

    ReplyDelete
  4. Grass-roots are central to indyref2 Yes. Get your group indy networked with other groups. Reform... It's started watch this NYR promo https://vimeo.com/167142844

    Also, other tweets:

    It's already happening! Come and get your group involved. Reform your Yes group. Campaign!

    And..

    There is a collective grass-root plan, it has collective grass-root support. Build a new Yes group Network now! Watch the NYR films at nationalyesregistry.scot and get your group involved.

    braco

    ReplyDelete
  5. Indyref2 is coming! Get your indy group involved. Reform your Yes group. Get connected. Influence this new campaign Please watch this National Yes Registry promo :

    https://vimeo.com/167142844

    braco

    ReplyDelete
  6. Aldo. Are you with us now?

    There is a need in the independent Scotland for a centre right voice in the politics. I noted that the most conservative parts of Scotland voted remain strongly yesterday.

    Look after your own interests. Join the fight. Vote YES in indyref2.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aldo assured us several times that Remain would win in the so-called united kingdom. So much for britnat assurances - again.

      Delete
    2. Sorry, anon but I still cannot support independence. We would need to adopt:

      The euro.
      Trade tarriffs with England.
      A hard border with England.

      And that's assuming we even get into the EU. Plus most of the difficulties raised by the no campaign the last time are still there.

      I see a panelbase poll puts yes on 52%. If that's all they can manage in the initial shock and heat of this thing with the anti independence arguments still to be deployed, then I can't see them winning. It would be a second, devastating defeat.

      Delete
  7. I can see the attraction of calling Indyref 2 but I foresee two major problems.

    One is that the demographic which left Labour in such numbers and voted Yes in 2014 are the working class voters who feel most threatened by immigration lowering wages and taking low paid jobs. Yesterday they voted Leave in numbers.

    The Remain demographic tended to be affluent, travelled and well educated, and we know they tended to vote No in 2014.

    The second problem is that we would be voting for a hard border with our biggest trading partner England.

    Cameron has just said he will resign before October and the obvious replacement is Boris Johnson and his pals Gove, Duncan Smith and Farage. What could possibly go wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Well done James, I think you did well regarding all the polls and proved your metal.

    As for what happens next, sturgeon has to ask europe for uks continuing membership in event of yes vote. The argument of leave voters is completely minute to the argument of westminster ruking.

    But we need a centre right yes group. Or we will lose.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. totally agree. it was the big failing of YES and BfS never quite opicked up the pace. There are a lot of right leaning europhiles that need to be scooped up into an organisation that makes them feel comfortable.

      Delete
  9. Holyrood must immediately deal with the EU seperately from the so-called united kingdom. The SNP must guarantee another EU referendum to the people of an independent Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  10. There will be no EU for the SNP to join as it will collapse after more countries vote to leave

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 12:14 PM

      Democracy is on the march in Europe. Down with beaurocrats and wasters.

      Delete
    2. As you sow so shall ye reapJune 24, 2016 at 12:26 PM

      Not much of a UK either given the fast moving events in NI.

      The warnings were ignored and all for the vanity of an incompetent PM and the ludicrously insular reason of trying to keep a hopelessly fractured tory party together.

      Delete
  11. Salmond is calling for indyref2 but I don't want to suffer another heart breaking defeat. Let's wait till the support is behind Yes

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Give it a few months more of tory and labour chaos with presuppositions now shattered over what is now possible and I assure you, things are going to change when it comes to scottish public opinion. Not in favour of the BritNats either.

      We also don't just have a couple of months, we have a couple of years.

      Delete
  12. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 9:51 AM

    Might as well cancel my Paris trip. Get it right up Juncker and the gravy train. Wake up workers of Europe and bring this sponging Empire down. Who would have thought the subsidy Scot junkies would have voted to remain!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretend Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 10:02 AM

      Oops. GWC2 has been downing her champagne cocktails again. She's a terror when she's had more than 12 of them. God bless ye, ma'am.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 10:44 AM

      No just a glass off Californian white, Nat si bhoy. I did not stay up to watch the result I was confident. If it was the old Common Market agreement then I would have voted to remain. The ammount of politicians we have now is a burden on working people. Well at least you can console yourself in knowing knickerless will go for a referendum in an attempt to hand Scottish sovereignty over to the EU beaurocrats. I think I am the only Scottish patriot on here.

      Delete
    3. You're not Scottish. You're a British nationalist and an agent provocateur.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Not Deleted Class 2June 24, 2016 at 11:18 AM

      This racist wee shite doesn't seem to raise your ire as much as being contradicted.

      Decisions, decisions...

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 11:42 AM

      Do not call me wee.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 11:55 AM

      GNDC 2. You nat sis are the anti English rascists.

      Delete
    7. Poor wee mannie, getting in a state over winning. Imagine how angry the squatter would be if Leave had post...

      Delete
    8. You'll have to excuse him, he doesn't get many victories in life. It feels like he's been going on about 2014 for about five years.

      Delete
    9. True. I put the worst ravings down to shoe polish poisoning.

      Delete
    10. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 6:11 PM

      Ruth Davidsons buffalo bruised ringpiece from Boris sponging. Nat!!!Is?!!!!!

      Delete
    11. Don't talk about your leader like that...

      Delete
  13. No one seems to like my geography questions by I get confused. My family and my sides come from all over the British isles and Normandy. Where is WALES historically. It seems the whole area south of the bristolbchannel is now considered not wales. But werent Devon and Somerset part of wales? I thought bath was a border town between West England and Wales. Not looking for an official answer, just a clue!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cornwall is part of the celtic fringe with a language closely related to Welsh, but I don't think it would have ever been considered a part of Wales.

      Delete
    2. You're conflating Wales with Brythonic people generally Bill.

      Delete
  14. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 11:47 AM

    Knickerless has basically said she wants to sell us out to the EU beaurocrats and accepts there may be a border with England, How you nat sis hate the English.

    ReplyDelete
  15. As you sow so shall ye reapJune 24, 2016 at 12:21 PM

    Labour now in utter chaos joining the tories in headless chicken mode as chaos is unleashed with simultaneous leadership contests now scheduled.

    Chaos was always where this incompetent westminster bubble class was heading and chaos is precisely what we have.

    Scottish Democracy is going to count for 'slightly' more than the petulant whining of out of touch tories and labour, to say the least. LOL

    Not looking too good for the imbecilic 'SNP bad' merchants right now, is it?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Some interesting indications that Scotland and London may look towards negotiating some kind of 'free zone' status in a similar manner to Jebel-Ali or Singapore.

    Not so sure about Scotland, but for London I could see it as a definite possibility, especially for the financial sector.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What we have now is a society divided between progressive (or should I say "normal") people who mainly live in places like Scotland and London and a few other cities dotted around the UK; and a backwards, anti-foreigner mentality that predominates in the rest of England and Wales (incidentally a mentality that seems to particularly detest people who live in big cities like London/read the Guardian).

      There are two ways that could go - either an American route in which there remains a united country but people are insanely polarised about politics, or Scotland and London break off in some capacity. London breaking off sounded pie in the sky yesterday, but it's arguably the most important city in the world and it's just had its status drastically undermined. It's hard to see what London gains from continuing to be tied to regions that evidently don't want to be tied to London and are intent on trashing it to satiate their own grievances.

      Delete
  17. I think two points are clear here. First, if we want independence then now isn't the time to start wagging fingers at No voters and claiming "I told you so". These are the people who need to change their minds to secure independence - you don't berate people you need to convince. I've already seen a lot of this stuff online this morning and it's completely counter-productive.

    The second is Sturgeon has to call the second referendum. We will never have a better chance than now amidst the chaos the UK is now in and with a lot of people bitter about the result.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As you sow so shall ye reapJune 24, 2016 at 1:01 PM

      Nicola's press conference did precisely what was needed. It set out the Holyrood process and timetable leading to Indyref2 without excessive "I told you so" and looking towards uniting as many Scottish voters as possible.

      Be in no doubt though, the vote can't happen in just a few months nor would we want it to.

      Those who actually tried to get people to vote in this referendum and campaigned in Scotland for an SNP IN vote will be the first to tell you that you can't just pile on vote after vote and expect the public to be fine with that. Enthusiasm for the EU referendum just after a Westmisnter then Holyrood vote was lacking, just a touch. There needs to be time for Scottish voters to adjust and there will be.

      Nicola is by far one of the strongest assets for Indy and the SNP we have so it is hardly invidious to give her the time and space to plot the course through the minefield of Labour and tory chaos we now see for years ahead.

      Those who think they have a better idea by all means tell us who and what it is. Because it sure as f**k isn't RISE or any another splinter group claiming to speak for Indy.

      Delete
  18. Hi James
    There's already people (like Villiers on Sky News earlier) claiming that we knew there'd be an EU ref prior to voting in indyref, thus Westminster should block indyref2.
    Can you shed light on what the UK voting intention polls actually pointed to back then? In my mind, they suggested another Tory/LibDem coalition.
    Cheers,
    Greg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Project Fear - A yes vote would result in scotland leaving the EU. A No vote would keep scotland in the EU.June 24, 2016 at 1:48 PM

      You mean the polls that were wrong?

      Yeah, not quite sure claiming something was virtually a certainty when it quite obviously wasn't is any kind of excuse for denying the Scottish public a vote after such a colossal change in circumstance as Brexit.

      But if out of touch westmisnter tories want to try to deny the Scottish public a referendum then by all means they should try it and see just how well that goes down now.

      Delete
    2. It seems to have become almost gospel on the No side that we all knew this was coming during the indyref. Whenever anyone says this, you should point out that Ruth Davidson said in 2014 the Tories probably wouldn't win the GE, specifically to assuage this fear.

      Delete
    3. Ruth Davidson is one of most odious liars in the UK Conservative Party. There is nothing she will not do for the British nationalist cause. Her constant bullshiting would and should have been exposed by now if we did not have such a corrupt mainstream media. Davidson is just as committed to class warfare against the poor, the struggling, the working class, and the disabled etc as any of her colleagues at Westminster. But she knows she has to hide it in Scotland, and of course the MSM here, and the rest of the UK, have no motive to expose her.

      Delete
  19. It disnae make any sense to want to replace subservience to London with subservience to Brussels

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are France, Germany, Italy or any other EU member Independent countries?

      Yes or No.

      Delete
    2. No matter how many times this line is said, it's comparing apples with oranges. The UK is a single country - Westminster makes all of the major decisions affecting us beyond the limited powers delegated to the Scottish Parliament.

      The EU is about states cooperating with each other on an equal basis to come up with shared rules (the vast majority of which are about minutiae like common regulatory standards which make it easier to trade with one another).

      Eurosceptics have spent decades pretending this isn't what the EU does: that it's some kind of dictatorship by foreign bureaucrat and that it has control over almost every aspect of UK decision-making. It's complete nonsense, politicians know it's complete nonsense (including Farage, Boris, Gove and the rest) yet they've been able to push this line for so long that half the country evidently believes it.

      There is no reason why Scotland has to suffer the same delusion - we can be like every other country in the EU which recognises what the EU is and why it's broadly beneficial to be part of it.

      Delete
    3. Have always found this delusion baffling. Studied UK parliamentary system at university in Germany 25 years ago which explored this exact point in great detail (including Edwina Currie's A Parliamentary Affair in which - among other things - she writes about that very dance UK MEPs have been performing for decades: suggest/support a new EU law/rule, vote it in, go home to UK and proclaim loudly how hard they fought against it, but that they were just utterly powerless against the bureaucrats in Brussels).

      That was widely known amongst the political elite then, it's common knowledge now, but when I bring this up in conversation with average people, they are not just astonished, they think I'm either making this up or have fallen for a crazy conspiracy theory.

      And that delusion in my view partly explains yesterday's vote - having been told the EU was evil for the last few decades, on Thursday they had the chance to leave this behind and did just that.

      Delete
  20. If there is another indyref, who's going to campaign for No? SLAB won't, in the cirumstances. Can't see a solely Tory-UKIP effort doing too well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I suppose the Libs might join in on the wrong side, as usual?

      Delete
    2. In that case, No has it in the bag.

      Delete
  21. Replies
    1. In regards Osborne, I posted earlier on the Guardian that he has likely made a dash for Columbia, now that a peace deal has been signed, and he will no doubt be looking for some Coke mountains to snort at his leisure.

      Delete
    2. The Tragic Plucking of Chicken GeorgeJune 24, 2016 at 4:57 PM

      Chicken George is an even bigger feartie than the incompetent fop.

      Sadly for him the tory men in grey suits will hunt him down, find him and give him the 1922's version of a pearl revolver.

      He should have been front a centre trying to reassure the markets etc. but his reluctance/petulance at being on the losing side has just made him an even bigger target than the twit Cameron for some Eurosceptic tories.

      *reaches for more popcorn*

      Delete
  22. Scotland's government must act as if Scotland is an independent nation, especially in its dealings with the EU.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Another ray of sunshine to amuse Indy supporters today.

    The tory right are going to cut the BBC to tiny pieces with rusty razors as payback for ham-fistedly backing the wrong side when they should have been (LOL) impartial.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Get you James, starring on Canadian TV!

    ReplyDelete
  25. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 4:42 PM

    Jist waitin fur Knickerless and Kim Jung Eck tae ask fur Euro Max 2.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 7:11 PM

      Not an anonymous troll. Obviously.

      Delete
  26. Buffalo Hide for saleJune 24, 2016 at 4:49 PM

    Yet another ray of sunshine for Yessers.

    Amidst all the westminster bubble eagerness to hear the Buffalo pronounce impotently on Indyref2 they appear to have forgotten Davidson was on the losing side of what will become the great tory purge/split of 2016.

    I'm afraid that disny bode too weel for her future career prospects, harmony inside SCON and the wider tory party.

    I fear Boris may well be searching for a handy broom to thoroughly sweep away the Cameroon stench from the Buffalo and her hangers on. Not to mention all Davidson's bluster about 'doin a Murdo' to the Scottish party, something which is going to come back to haunt her soon enough.

    Still, it's not as if someone as isolated and polarising as Davidson is going to be the tory face of the next Indyref No campaign, is it? :oD

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep. The Tory purge to come will be something to see. Sell pounds, buy popcorn.

      Delete
  27. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 5:34 PM

    Knickerless dismissed out of hand the majority who voted in the Scottish referendum. She dsmisses the large minority who voted to leave EU. She claims to speak for the majority of Scots who voted to remain in the EU. So who speaks for the minority!

    ReplyDelete
  28. James,

    Three things:

    You do marvelous work here, this is my 'go to' blog on psephology issues.

    You have the patience of a saint.

    You ought to be earning as much as a certain Professor.

    Please keep going, and be assured that an Indiegogo request would not go unanswered.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'Small' Egos Big ConsequencesJune 24, 2016 at 8:01 PM

      Like Bella just did you mean? Kappa

      Delete
  29. GWC2. Not long now til you have to pack your bags and fuck off to little England when Independence comes you deviant weirdo.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 6:08 PM

      Ruth Davidsons knickerless majority had my minority immigrants brown people bhoy who speaks for my minority jocks ahoy Russ Abbot EU nat!!!

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 24, 2016 at 6:23 PM

      Racist English hater.

      Delete
    3. Tory Racist Class 2June 24, 2016 at 6:45 PM

      Ruth Davidson masterbator.

      Delete
    4. Westminster Bubble ClassJune 24, 2016 at 8:17 PM

      # JFK.. blown away.. what else do I have to say..

      # We didn't start the fire..

      # it was always burnin.. since the world's been turnin..

      Delete
  30. OK four things, the last being the most important.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Labour and the Tories are "two corpses propping each other up with their rigor mortis", Peter Hitchens tells BBC News.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Jeez oh! The Beeb are still digging away furiously spinning an Ultra-Cameroon line on Brexit!! They appear completely oblivious to the fact that their shortening future as a State Broadcaster is now entirely dependent on the most barking mad and far right privatising tories who take over from Cameroon and Osborne very, very soon.

    This is going to be entertaining to watch. Unlike the dumbed down shite/establishment propaganda on the BBC.

    They're giving the soundbite that Cameron is the man who gambled everything on an EU In vote and lost. Seems like nobody has told the elites and public schoolboys running the Beeb they've done the precise same thing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are also still giving the odious Blairites a megaphone because they definitely covered themselves in glory during the EU campaign and are obviously the type of MPs that Labour's lost working class will now turn to in droves.

      Utterly crazy!

      Delete
  33. Why has my unfailingly complementary post not been allowed through?

    James, we must be told.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anyway,

      The four points I wished to make:

      Firstly you are damn good at this psephology stuff,

      you have the patience of a saint,

      It is good to see you spread your wings, you will soon be as go-to as a certain professor whose name I conveniently forget,

      And finally, if you need another Indiegogo, you should ask, because you are worth it.

      Delete
    2. Douglas, apart from the abusive comments from an anonymous troll very early this morning, I haven't deleted any comments today, and there's nothing recent in the spam trap. If you tried to post something and it's not there, I'm not sure what happened. I've noticed that Blogger has become quite bug-ridden over the last couple of weeks.

      Delete
    3. James.

      No worries, no real complaint, shit happens.

      It is nice to post here.

      You run a friendly blog. And I trust my follow up comments will be taken in the spirit they are intended.

      We need to organize an Indiegogo for you. It was much as I had said before it disappeared into a black hole!

      Delete
    4. I think my post has appeared. I'm going to shut up now. After asking, anyone else about to support James in continuing?

      Delete
    5. Well, I would...anyone else? Not reasonable to expect a quality site for free - looks like we're going to need this resource a LOT in the near future..!

      Delete
  34. Was fancying a laugh so searched for Alan Cochrans piece in the Telegraph. Couldn't find it-has he been fired?

    ReplyDelete
  35. John McKee ‏@John_McKee

    @Freedland My twitter feed is deluged with former BT staffers and activists declaring for independence. This is sad for me, but UK is over.

    ReplyDelete