Friday, June 10, 2016

Indyref 2 could be moving closer, as stupefying ORB poll puts Leave 10% ahead

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 45% (-4)
Leave 55% (+4)


The first thing to say is that it's astonishing that the official Leave campaign have immediately tried to discredit this poll, and have claimed that their own data shows the race to be closer to 50/50.  Regardless of whether that's true or not, their eagerness to say it out loud is telling - it seems eerily similar to the Yes campaign's counterintuitive horror in 2014 when the famous YouGov poll was published putting Yes ahead.  (If you recall, the SNP's reaction was to hurriedly release a private poll showing No slightly ahead.)

Presumably the fear is that as soon as the perception takes root that the 'change' option is actually winning (as opposed to merely being in with a shout), the forces of hell will be unleashed, and all the scrutiny will be applied to one side only.  That's exactly what happened to the Yes campaign, although I do have the impression that people aren't quite as susceptible to scare tactics as they were two years ago - partly because, rightly or wrongly, they don't feel that quite as much is at stake.

Leaving aside the highly unusual health warning slapped on this poll by Leave themselves, the more general caveat is that not too much weight should ever be given to 'just one poll'.  But is this 'just one poll'?  The trend is very much in line with the findings of recent ICM phone and online polls, and also with the most recent Opinium online poll.  It's hard to say whether the last ORB phone poll (tonight's poll is an online poll from the same firm) showed the same trend or not, because the turnout-filtered headline figures and the unfiltered figures reported swings in opposite directions.  But the YouGov poll a few days ago did flatly contradict what we're seeing tonight.  So while the new poll isn't a complete departure from what we've seen before, the evidence isn't totally consistent.  The most that can be said is that it now looks somewhat more probable than it did a few hours ago that there has been really significant movement towards Leave.

For what it's worth, the small and unreliable Scottish subsample in the new poll puts Remain ahead by 60% to 40% - which of course full-scale Scottish polls suggest may be a conservative estimate.  So as of this moment there does seem to be a very real chance of the scenario that we've long thought might trigger a second independence referendum - ie. a Leave vote across the UK coupled with a clear Remain vote in Scotland.  The unionist ascendancy within the official Remain campaign have been playing a high stakes game by "warning" English voters about the likelihood of Brexit triggering Indyref 2 - that's fine if the warnings are heeded, but if not, it's going to be hard for the same people to argue later on that it would be illegitimate for the SNP to push for Indyref 2.  In that sense, I'm inclined to say that the interventions of John Major and Tony Blair are of much greater significance than the recent ICM and TNS polls showing narrow majorities against the idea of holding a second referendum in the event of Brexit.  (In any case, both polls showed a statistical tie - ie. even if the methodology was completely sound, the standard 3% margin of error makes it impossible to know whether there is a narrow majority for or against a second referendum.  Essentially the polls suggest that public opinion is split down the middle, which puts the ball firmly in the court of our elected representatives in the Scottish Parliament - and most of them are pro-independence.)

* * *

LEAVE TAKES THE LEAD FOR FIRST TIME IN SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 45.0% (+0.7)
Leave 45.8% (+1.9)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 42.9% (+0.6)
Leave 45.6% (+1.9)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 47.0% (+0.7)
Leave 46.0% (+2.0)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last two weeks. The online average is based on seven polls - three from YouGov, two from ICM, one from Opinium and one from ORB. The telephone average is based on three polls - two from ORB and one from ICM.)

33 comments:

  1. Game changer, bring on the vow!

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    Replies
    1. don't start with that old shite! lol

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  2. Look forward to seeing the datasets of the poll.

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    1. Scotland is 60% remain in this poll.

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  3. I always had a feeling the Brexit camp would move into the lead as English nationalism kicked in. If it does happen, it shows that a referendum campaign doesn't have to start with a lead in the opinion polls.

    We are well on the way to getting dragged out of Europe and I reckon the only things that can stop it now are:

    1. A future referendum promised against Turkish membership of the EU.

    2. Europe playing hardball and pledging some kind of banking tariff or transaction tax that would hurt the city of London.

    3. Targeting the xenophobes and racists directly by pointing out that a Brexit will see an increase in the ratio of non-EU immigrants. Especially the type they are most against..

    I reckon we might see a few surprises yet.

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    1. There is also a chance that the government is declared illegitimate if the 26 tory mps fraud allegations are found to be guilty.

      In that case it could be argued that the general election result is invalid and the referendum is also invalid.

      Interesting times.

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    2. No there isn't. Read Jack of Kent.

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  4. What a stinking hypocrite! 55/45 is now a narrow margin!

    SeanT Posts: 12,013
    6:30PM
    Surely the BEST that Cameron can hope for now is a painfully narrow REMAIN win. 55/45 or closer. That is his optimum scenario, round about now.

    Imagine his feelings.

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  5. Remember that if we'd had a balanced media then Scotland would be a normal country once more.

    Project Fear don't enjoy the same ability to spread their lies and scare stories unchallenged. There's no way that the english vote will be turned back to remain without a Super Massive Vow (tm) And that probably won't work as everybody knows that Vow is just another word for lie.

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  6. The intervention of war criminal Blair will have helped sway many to the Leave campaign.

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  7. I have no doubt that following Brexit polls will quickly show a hardening of Scottish opinion & a reasonable majority for Indyref 2.

    There's going to be an enormous clamour also, rightfully, for the Scottish government to immediately begin negotiations with the EU to maintain our membership.

    As the Chinese say : may you live in interesting times!

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    1. Interesting times indeed. Sturgeon is facing political suicide. The second ref won't happen. The polls in Scotland aren't nearly as wide as they're claiming - last one was at 51% leave. And with oil scraping the barrel (pun intended), how's she going to sell that one? Not forgetting that she'd also have to sell it alongside selling the Euro to the electorate, and considering the tangle they got into with their last ham-fisted effort at selling the currency, it's going to be pop corn time as we watch them now implode.

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    2. You forgot to sign your name, Aldo.

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    3. You should consider that sturgeon can now ask banks etc to set up in edinburgh, rather than move to franfurt and out of london. Edinburgh has a financial area, is predominately well known and is our capital. In such a case as brexit, tje fact we have easy access to england could also help if they are out.

      England out and us in totally changes everything and the past unionist arguments would no longer work.

      You best get used to that.

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    4. Only oil isn't scraping the barrelled as anyone who buys fuel will have noticed, the price is rising and is currently at $51 a barrel.

      Oil companies have used low oil price to rationalise costs and now say if oil is $55 a barrel it's as profitable as $100 a barrel to them.

      http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Crude_Oil_Brent/CB?search=CB*



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    5. @ initial anon To join the Euro you first need to issue your own currency. You are then required to sign up to the ERM (which is voluntary) for a minimum of two years (with no major fluctuations in that time). An indy Scotland could not be forced to join the Euro, we'd simply decline our offer to sign up to the exchange rate mechanism. A sovereign Scottish currency has always been the sensible option. Sharing the pound was never a good plan long term but I think it was the option deemed least likely to frighten the horses at the time.

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    6. This is also true should scotland take up the uks implied continuing membership of the EU.

      There is a reason why major and blair say it would result in scotland leaving uk.....cos its an easier argument to make for a yes vote.

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    7. The important thing now for Scotland is that it votes to remain within the EU.

      Short term - if england votes brexit, scotland's government should work hard to emphasise Scotland is an EU country that is staying in the EU. Scotland doesn't need to negotiate entrance - it just needs to negotiate how it is going to fit in. The currency issue (among others) can be worked out during the negotiations. it's a red herring at this point in time.Hope the scottish govt has a think tank already preparing for this eventuality.
      Long-term - The advantages/disadvantages of EU membership as an independent country can be weighed up and decided by the scottish parliament and people , once Independence from the UK Union and full state EU membership have bedded down and people can get their heads round all the implications

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  8. My gasted is well flabbered.

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    1. I forgot to add that I guess there will be no "Love BombS!" coming from EU and certainly not France with UKOK Thugs at it in Marseille.

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  9. The English are much more self confident than us and Project Fear was always going to be risky as they aren't used to being told they aren't capable of being self sufficient. We on the other hand have been conditioned to believe this over decades, centuries even. 60% seems very high for a Scottish remain vote. But after peak scaremongering the English and Scottish votes have gone in opposite directions I'm not that surprised.

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  10. The English are much more self confident than us and Project Fear was always going to be risky as they aren't used to being told they aren't capable of being self sufficient. We on the other hand have been conditioned to believe this over decades, centuries even. 60% seems very high for a Scottish remain vote. But after peak scaremongering the English and Scottish votes have gone in opposite directions I'm not that surprised.

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    1. Absolutely. As much as Scots like to think we are politically obstinate, Scotland is still more likely to say "OK we can go along with that", whereas England, as anyone paying attention will have anticipated, is more likely to say "who the f**k are you to tell us what to do?"

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    2. Absolutely. As much as Scots like to think we are politically obstinate, Scotland is still more likely to say "OK we can go along with that", whereas England, as anyone paying attention will have anticipated, is more likely to say "who the f**k are you to tell us what to do?"

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    3. Absolutely. I've been saying that for months. Basically Project Fear worked in Scotland because of the Cringe. Too many people really did believe we were too wee and too poor because they'd been conditioned for generations to see that as the default position.

      There's no English Cringe. Tell the bulk of English voters they're too wee and too poor and you'll get an earful you're unlikely to forget.

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    4. Exactly. Remember that Britain/England are synonymous down south. The years of pomp, flag waving and Nationalism are now backfiring on the remain camp.

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  11. Brexit is a disaster for a chance of independence. I don't think the implications are being thought thru. Campaign to leave U.K. And join eu. Also the rUK could now say we would not have free movement. So scots could work in Stockholm or Madrid but need to apply to work in Newcastle.

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    1. Nobody would need a visa to work in Newcastle,you,me or anybody else here,we would still be eligible for a British passport,as would even the grandchildren.

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    2. I thought the white paper said uk passports would be valid until they expire and then u would apply for a Scottish passport but because of eu freedom of movement not an issue for working etc in rUK.

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