Tuesday, May 31, 2016

The earth shakes as Leave takes the lead in astonishing TELEPHONE poll from "gold standard" ICM

My theory that the apparent big swing to Leave in last night's ORB telephone poll was just a routine reversion to the mean has taken an almighty knock.  Today's new phone poll from ICM (the firm regarded by some as the UK's "gold standard") shows an enormous swing that takes Leave into the outright lead - and this time the shift can't be put down to a freakish pro-Remain sample last time around.  There was nothing out of the ordinary about the last ICM phone poll, and indeed no previous ICM phone poll has shown Leave even close to being in the lead.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? (ICM, telephone)

Remain 42% (-5)
Leave 45% (+6)

Even more incredibly, if this poll is to be believed (and the jury is obviously still out on that, because it's only one poll), the previously huge divergence between phone and online findings has been wiped out - exactly what happened at the close of the indyref campaign.  The parallel online poll from ICM shows an almost identical result - although it still picks up a modest swing to Leave.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? (ICM, online)

Remain 44% (-1)
Leave 47% (+2)

The big problem for the Leave campaign is that today could be their equivalent of the penultimate Saturday of the indyref campaign (when YouGov famously put Yes ahead).  The shock of that day meant that there was no longer any chance of Yes sneaking in under the radar, and for the following week Scotland was blitzed by the London establishment's shameful 'shock and awe' propaganda campaign.  The only thing that might insulate Leave from a repeat performance is the fact that there have been any number of previous polls putting Leave ahead, so perhaps there isn't quite the same sense of expectations being turned on their head by a single poll (although there probably should be).

As far as phone polls are concerned, Ipsos-Mori are ICM's nearest competitors on the "gold standard" stakes, so the next poll from Ipsos-Mori could tell us a lot.  It's hard to believe they'll go in one jump from an 18-point Remain lead to an outright Leave lead, but if there is a big cut in the Remain advantage, that would corroborate the story ICM are telling us about the trend.

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE : 

Remain 45.6% (-0.3)
Leave 41.6% (+1.0)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 42.3% (+0.2)
Leave 42.9% (+0.7)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 48.9% (-0.7)
Leave 40.3% (+1.4)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last three weeks. The online average is based on nine polls - three from ICM, three from YouGov, one from TNS, one from Opinium and one from BMG. The telephone average is based on nine polls - three from ORB, two from ICM, one from YouGov, one from Ipsos-Mori, one from ComRes and one from Survation.)

62 comments:

  1. Cameron desperately dreaming up another "vow"?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Been waiting a while to see the polls start to tick towards the fundamentals. This is it, I still see no way that Leave cannot win big in England and this indicates exactly what will happen.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 31, 2016 at 8:53 PM

    Great news indeed. The Joke Nat si party are deliberately sitting on the sidelines waiting to see where the next meal ticket will come from. Bunch of crawlin wasters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 23 weighs in with his usual crayon-flecked ravings.

      Delete
    2. Who, Labour? The Guardian has commented on that.
      And Wee Wullie Rent-a-Gub is the "Joke" in this campaign.
      And the "Nat si" Tory Bullington Boys are split from here to eternity. Cameroon is doomed.

      Delete
    3. The joke Nat si party????

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2May 31, 2016 at 9:23 PM

      You nat sis really need to make up your minds. Do you want subsidised by the English taxpayer or have an EU Greek Tragedy.

      Delete
    5. What a Fud you are, go away back to your primary school.

      Delete
    6. What a Fud you are, go away back to your primary school.

      Delete
    7. Obviously "joke Nat si" is to distinguish from the real natsis in WM - the Tories

      Delete
    8. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  4. We are verging on a "Historic Moment"?----or not.
    Accuracy of polling? That took a knock after the general election in England was forecast badly. So is this real? And will it stay where it is?
    The BBC is already in Cameron's pocket, so the UK can expect the same heavy handed propaganda that Scotland got from our "independent" broadcaster----but the English press is in the other camp, so can he buy them off?
    This is getting exciting, but only because of the possibility of an upset result. The campaign is dreadful.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'BBC in Cameron's pocket.' Utterly wrong. The Leave camp is delighted with the BBC having to provide a counter for every pro-Remain word uttered.

      Delete
  5. @James, the month before indyref, yougov had leave at 35%.

    The undecideds clearly migrated to leave, but some likely got weak knees in the end so the vote total only hit 45%.

    You expereinced project fear in the fullest, I am solely an SNP member "due south."

    I admit Cameron has the big guns again but his government is divided. This is unlike indyref.

    What else can he pull out of his hat right now? Frankly the BS is not sticking this time around. Leave is "tied" with remain and I bet the undecideds will go leave in the end just like indyref.

    Regardless, there is nothing like the smell of P-A-N-I-C.

    George Stewart

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Project Fear for EURef is every bit as laughable as for Indyref but it's also weakened by being a repeat. It's a joke of a campaign and Leave is set for a win.

      Delete
  6. Sainsos has 3 packs of butterkist microwavable at £1-50. Might be a good investment.

    England expects .....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 31, 2016 at 9:25 PM

      Do they have the salted kind?

      Delete
    2. No popcorn for you, 23. Eat your cereal.

      Delete
  7. There are some fundamental differences with Indyref and EUref in relation to the relative strength of (a) Remain\No Resources (b) Remain\No Project Fear.

    On (a) No had near universal media unanimity to call upon. Remain does not enjoy the majority print or broadcast media; the latter straining to be more impartial this time around. No also enjoyed universal and enthusiastic Westminster party support. Not this time with Labour's response half-baked and the Lib Dems an irrelevant rump. And in terms of business, there are far fewer high profile interventions in favour of Remain because there is more risk splitting affections in a market of 60m.

    In terms of (B)? Project Fear ONLY works if you have the element of surprise, universal media support, and parliamentary solidarity. It also needs to work on issues relevant to specific target groups: this time round you don't have a currency union Achilles heel nor pooling and sharing re the pensioner vote. And you have an 85% right wing Eurosceptic press happy to peddle the opposite - that risk comes with EU membership!!

    Frankly the Brit Establishment has sleep-walked into the jaws of defeat because they thought Euroscepticism was a nutjob minority fringe pursuit. That fringe minority is about to register 15-18 million votes on a turnout circa 75\80%...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 31, 2016 at 10:07 PM

      This so called Brit establishment you refer to, who are they?... Do we have a Scottish establishment?.. However let them all walk into defeat. Vote leave and watch this shithouse corrupt EU collapse into oblivion.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 1, 2016 at 9:00 PM

      Limpless knobend.

      Delete
    3. No-one's interested in your medical history, 23.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2June 1, 2016 at 10:05 PM

      How do you know this.

      Delete
    5. Because we're not your doctor, 23.

      Delete
  8. Holy Bat Shit Robin! VOW TIME! It will be the full to the Devo Max Home Rule! UKOK will be the most powerful Parly in the EU! Or more than likely a 90% plus PV turn out!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Looking at the data sets of the ICM, Scotland is Remain despite Leave overall. The poll figures I see don't include Northern Ireland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The latest poll for Northern Ireland is favourable for Remain: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/bill-white/eu-referendum-70-of-unionists-voting-for-brexit-34761354.html

      Delete
    2. We've had some news recently about migrants getting drowned while making their way over the med / English channel. Perhaps that has influenced opinion.

      There are 3 weeks still to go however - and enough undecided voters that remain can still easily pull it back, provided the news agenda isn't completely toxic for them (immigration, terror etc)

      Aldo

      Delete
    3. The pro-Brexit media will throw the four horsemen of the Apocalypse at Call Me Dave if it'll get them the result they're after.

      Delete
  10. I'm kind of hoping Scotland votes Leave, England remain, and Scotland swings the result to Brexit. Just to see how all sides would play it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm kind of hoping Scotland votes Remain in enough numbers to keep England in the EU despite a small English majority for Leave. Then England will demand their independence and Bob's your uncle.

      Delete
    2. My way would be funnier.

      Delete
  11. Only 13% undecided seems a bit low in my opinion. Most of the people I speak to still sit on the fence, that may just be a reflection of each regional difference though.

    Let's hope England votes us out and we get another indyref because I cannot live with the tories wrecking maternity pay, human rights etc etc.

    God help us.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Glasgow Working Class 2June 1, 2016 at 8:58 PM

    Strange how all the subsidy junkies seem to want to remain. Nae shame.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ...so speaks the Tories' bag carrier.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 1, 2016 at 9:55 PM

      So speaks the Nat si Tartan Tory scumbag who is happy to collaborate with blue Tory policies. I stood on shite today hope it was you.

      Delete
    3. Yep. Obviously hurts 23 to realise he gave up all his principles to do Tory and Kipper dirty work.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2June 2, 2016 at 11:08 AM

      Well hit me with yer shovel mick, 5:40am now thats dedication I award you the Croix du Wullyum Wallace 24+.

      Delete
    5. Some of us have jobs to do which necessitate rising early, 23. We don't all get to laze around all morning. Oh, and spare me the ethnic slurs.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2June 2, 2016 at 11:38 PM

      Picking mushrooms then.

      Delete
    7. Lazy and presumptive, 23. On the subject of mushrooms, no doubt you miss the days when the Labour party treated the people like mushrooms - keeping them in the dark and feeding them manure.

      Delete
  14. James, in indyref the incumbent was remain in the UK and polling showed remain above 50%.

    In Ukref the incumbent is remain in the EU and polling is below 50% and tied with leave.

    If the incumbent rule is in fact in play here, IMO remain is in serious trouble because we saw in indyref the undecideds break to leave but the problem was they did not have a base large enough to get over 50%.

    http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

    UNLESS, Cameron can pull some new rabbits out of that fearful hat.....he is toast.

    George Stewart

    ReplyDelete
  15. Heading towards the squeaky bum time zone/figures for the referendum. A narrow win for remain can look towards rabid bitterness towards Scotland from Little Engerlunders/England uber alles/BritNats faction. Eager for revenge and asking for a chance for the electorate to deliver a verdict...
    Or a narrow Brexit pulling Scots away from the EU, with the unjust bitterness that would swell up...
    Looks like the EU referendum is going to do more damage to the UK political set up than all the SNPbad referendum. the IRA and Welsh hoodlums burning holiday cottages put together.

    As a British passport holder resident in Finland, the quicker Scotland gets on-board with the Nordic council the better- EFTA or EU is a rosier prospect than relying on a belligerent southern neighbour despising anybody who can't speak the RP english, FFS they hardly take our banknotes already. Just saying.

    The EU is imperfect but you can change it quicker from within with votes both to the parliament and the council of ministers. WHen you are out, all you can do is bitch. Maybe that is the plan....

    ReplyDelete
  16. I do understand a slight hope among Nats that Leave will win in the hope that it will foster their cause. I do not blame them, But I think Scot Goes Pop has to recognise what you are truly dealing with.

    BREXIT is now become nothing more than a right wing putsch, attempting to turn a referendum on economic issues into a full-blown Thatcherite revival massively promoted by Murdoch's press with lovely lashings of near-racist gravy on the side

    Patrick Minford , Boris's economic mastermind, is in reality Thatcher's old pet economist promoting the most red-blooded of capitalisms. No wonder he has been kept out of view but the cat was let out of the bag on the Today show this morning.
    The car industry engineering, etc. all doomed as most honest BREXITERS admit without shedding a tear. We are heading right back to the era of Hillsborough and Orgreave.

    The only question is whether there is time to expose this to the more wavering BREXITERS who believe it is just a nuance. Or might (this surely the stupidest and most mindless of all motives) want to give Cameron a bloody nose. The man will be gone in two years at most for heaven's sake and you will face far far worse!!

    And as for an Indyref. Johnson, Gove? That lot would probably go to war rather than enable it. Sure Scotland can go it alone but think of the mess everyone would be in. This has become about even more than Indyrefs. Do you want to live in a racist country? Or even with a powerful racist neighbour? Points systems, visas, will there be some for Scotland? I can hear Nats say yes if we get what we want but believe me deals with the devil (step forward Rupert Murdoch) never turn out well for the other side.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Welcome to the 'family' of nations anon. Starting to see our British reality are you? Boris, Murdoch, Gove, Therasa May, IDS, Orgreave, Hilsborough, death of industry, Thatcher, Cameron, Minford, Lord Darling, 'the City', offshore financial 'services', Great British bake-off, low wage economy, institutional Racism and Bigotry are NOT new British phenomena!

      More of the same... or more of the same? You choose.

      I say:
      End London Rule. Build a Scottish democracy

      braco

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 2, 2016 at 11:41 PM

      I thought we had a Scottish Parliament within a Union which the Jocks voted for. Are you some kind of Nazi that hates democracy.

      Delete
    3. Poor 23 believes democracy only works when everyone shuts up and votes for the Labour man.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2June 3, 2016 at 10:55 PM

      Democracy works when the majority win and the losers eat their cereal.

      Delete
    5. You may eat your cereal at your leisure, 23. Alternately, you can complain to your MP or MSP...

      Delete
  17. Indeed. We SNP voters are immediately equated to 1930's Germany. It is odd, so it is. Perhaps all socialists should be tarred with Pol Pot? Why not? Because insults are easy to hand out but far harder to retract.

    For info, Glasgow Working Class 2, the election of Adolf Hitler to power had, sadly, a basis in democracy. In 1933 they had approx 33% of the vote, and were the majority party. A level not far short of a certain Conservative Party in the UK who rule us with approx 37%. Not a huge difference, is it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't equate SNPers to 1930s Germany. The nazis were dangerous and came close to achieving their goals. The SNP are a bloody laughing stock.

      Delete
    2. Touchy, isn't he?

      Delete
    3. The SNP stand up for you and me. Quite how that makes them a laughing stock is just ridiculous hyperbole from a unionist troll. Oh! That would be you.

      Delete
  18. Of course what happened next in Germany would never, ever, be a template for the future shape of UK politics. That could never happen. Could it?

    Demonisation of immigrants and asylum seekers, a change of categorisation from the deserving and undeserving poor to the single category of undeserving poor, an increasing fear of 'the other'. A nation impoverished by stupidity. A nation welded to the notion of nuclear weapons, which does nothing about eliminating them, either nationally or internationally. A nation that goes to war on a lie? A nation who are, quite literally no more than bit players on the international stage and who keep kings and queens as tho we were still ruling an Empire on which the Sun never sets? A fairy tale, dysneyesque dystopia.

    What a sceptred isle. Not.

    Get real.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep. It's Oceania with a thin layer of Ruritania to distract the worker drones.

      Delete
  19. I don't know which poll was being quoted but there was an indication that Scotland and NI might swing the vote to Remain. That would be interesting.

    ReplyDelete