Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Leave campaign holds narrow lead in BMG online poll

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 44% (+1)
Leave 45% (n/c)

Not a huge amount to say about this one, other than that it adds even further to the weight of evidence that online polling is not picking up the swing to Remain reported by the ORB and Ipsos-Mori phone polls.  There have now been seven online polls published over the last ten days or so, and six of them have failed to show a meaningful swing to Remain (once methodological tweaks are allowed for).

The fact that Leave's support is proving resilient this week of all weeks is absolutely critical - because postal voting is about to get underway in earnest.  It would be the worst possible moment for either side to suffer a collapse.

24 comments:

  1. So the hysterical Stay campaign Propaganda doesn't appear to be having any effect whatsoever.

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    1. I forgot to add I don't think the rabid way in which IFs report was presented today will do the Remain campaign any favours. They continue to treat people as idiots and easily scared.

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    2. These scare stories are now becoming predictable and hysterical in nature. We heard them all during the 2014 Referendum. They will backfire on the Remain camp.

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  2. While it's fascinating to watch the kippers and tories pull strips off each other, I'm finding it very hard to engage with these hustings on a personal level. Maybe it's my privelleged position up here in sunny Caledonia, but I've never felt the EU or immigation to be particularly controversial or threatening issues. The mind boggles at how vehemently a lot of the WWC down in the SE think that Brexit will improve their life chances. But how things will get better without human rights, workers' rights, health and safety at work and grumpy neighbours who won't be clamouring to pay top Euro for our products, I don't know...

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  3. teeth in the glassMay 26, 2016 at 11:21 AM

    Rather strange to see the Tories divided on which best serves their personal interests. Or is all just a sham?
    Oh well off to Catalunya soon for a breath of fresh air. A wee saltire or two might be welcome there.

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  4. I suspect that what the Tories want is a close vote with a low turnout. That way, they can have their very own Neverendum.

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    1. Not sure why they'd want that. The party is tearing itself apart over this issue, as it always does. Look at the contempt Tory Brexiteers on sites like ConHome and pb.com have for Cameron. Why would he want that to continue?

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  5. The really fascinating thing is watching the nats scrambling around for any morsel of news which seems to increase the chances of brexit.

    You do have to feel sorry for the SNP though as they're in an impossible position. A party that is so pro Europe can hardly campaign on the basis that the EU is good for Scotland but bad for the UK as a whole - & it's excruciating watching Nicola trying to walk this tightrope - making pro-Remain speeches while simultaneously hoping & praying that the UK as a whole votes for Brexit.

    The irony is that even in the (hugely unlikely) event of a brexit vote, a majority of Scots still won't want another indyref (as evidenced by the recent opinion poll that we aren't allowed to mention !!

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    1. What's becoming hugely entertaining is watching you desperately try to maintain the fiction this referendum isn't even competitive when the last four polls have shown :

      1 Leave lead
      1 Remain lead
      2 dead heats

      Good luck with that one, Davy.

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  6. Hi James - But Davy is right that you appear to display an inordinate amount of pleasure every time that a poll appears showing Leave ahead....

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    1. Hi Edinburgh Phil! I'm not sure Davy can have it both ways - according to him, polls putting Leave ahead barely even exist, so what chance would I have of displaying "an inordinate amount of pleasure"?

      We all know what his game is, and it's not going to work.

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  7. Whatever rgevoutcome this is a Win ,Win for Scotland.
    Leave and Indy Ref 2 and probably a YES victory.
    Remain and watch right wing tearceach ithercto shreds,perhaps even resultibgvib defectiobscto UKIP and no Tory majority
    Interesting times ahead.

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  8. Glasgow Working Class 2May 26, 2016 at 3:31 PM

    Glasgow Central Nat si MP moaning in the Commons about the short life expectancy in Glasgow. Does ths daft cow not know who has been in power in Scotland for nearly a decade. Does she not know who has slashed the Glasgow budget and has frozen council tax. Does she not know who is refusing to tax the Scots a bit extra. Yes Westminster is far away even for a Nat si.

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    1. Do try not to choke on those crayons, 23.

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    2. You have just proved with this nonsensical post that you are only about 12 years old you should really be posting in the Beano.

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    3. It's good to have a site moron,if only to emphasise the more sensible comments on the blog. McGibbon fills the role perfectly with his puerile,low-brow,pro-Union verbal garbage. He and Aldo.with his psuedo-intellectual approach make a great team. As a duo,they're [almost] on a par with Ant and Dec. Let them be.

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    4. Raging misogyny and xenophobia that even the Dreary Heil would find embarrassing. 23 is a gift that keeps on giving... for us, rather than for his beloved Union and Labour accounting unit (North Britain).

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2May 26, 2016 at 9:14 PM

      Yeh right glad you have arrived moron. At least you are not the first Nat si moron to avoid issues that affect Scots. You lot seem to get your rocks aff wie polls. Makes ye blind ye know.

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    6. No argument, just abuse and Nazi slurs. This is why we laugh at 23.

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  9. The so-called united kingdom continues to disintegrate. Great to see.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 26, 2016 at 9:24 PM

      Nat si ism is disintegrating. The Union will survive because you Nat sis know deep down you need the English subsidy. The Joke Parliament will disolve as it is inept, useless and raking in workers tax to line their own pockets. The Scots will awaken and rid us of this bloodsucking scum.

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    2. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanMay 26, 2016 at 11:53 PM

      He has escaped from his carers.

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    3. No argument, just abuse and Nazi slurs. This is why we laugh at 23 and his sub-Spanneresque ravings.

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  10. SwagBucks is a very popular get-paid-to website.

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