Monday, May 16, 2016

Get set for Schrodinger's referendum as bombshell ICM poll reveals that Remain and Leave are both winning

After a whole week without a single EU referendum poll (almost unbelievable this deep into the campaign), ICM have broken the drought with simultaneous phone and online polls, which once again show the traditional disparity.  It looks like public opinion hasn't budged much - the phone poll shows a statistically insignificant one-point increase in the Remain lead, and although the 4% Leave lead in the online poll is unusually high, it's still within the normal range when you take account of the fact that ICM made a couple of Leave-friendly tweaks to their online methodology a few weeks ago.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Online poll :

Remain 43% (-1)
Leave 47% (+1)

Phone poll :

Remain 47% (-1)
Leave 39% (-2)

In line with the Kevin Williamson theory that opinion polls are always 100% accurate and that voters never, ever change their minds as an election approaches (as long as Boris Johnson isn't photographed with a copy of The Sun, naturally), we now know the result of the vote on June 23rd.  Remain are going to win the phone referendum, and Leave are going to win the online referendum.  It remains to be seen who will win the paper and pencil referendum, though, and come to think of it, that could be quite important.

Intriguingly, Martin Boon of ICM has parted company with his counterparts in ComRes, and also with Matt Singh of the Number Cruncher website, by disputing the assumption that the Remain-friendly phone polls are likely to prove more accurate.  Matt Singh's reasoning on that point has always seemed a little suspect to me - for example, he prayed in aid the fact that online polls overestimated the UKIP vote in the May 5th elections (including the Scottish Parliament election), but it could well be that turnout patterns are going to be radically different next month.  The EU referendum is the ultimate 'home fixture' for UKIP supporters, and it's not hard to see why they would be considerably less motivated to go out to vote in a Holyrood contest.

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 44.6% (n/c)
Leave 41.2% (+1.5)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 43.1% (+3.5)
Leave 43.8% (+4.7)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 46.0% (-3.5)
Leave 38.5% (-1.8)


(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last three weeks. The online average is based on ten polls - four from ICM, two from YouGov, one from ORB, one from TNS, one from BMG and one from Opinium. The telephone average is based on two polls - one from ICM and one from Survation.)

50 comments:

  1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 16, 2016 at 7:23 PM

    Its lookin good for the get oot. The get oot should be plugging the fact that there may be a final bonus. They will no longer subsidise the Jocks if they leave the Union. Win win for the get oots.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So, Scotland and N. Ireland continuing to keep England in the EU.

    I'll pish masel laughing if that happens.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 16, 2016 at 8:10 PM

      Skier, the sad thing is you want Independence only to give it away big style. I doubt Merkel and co would give kim Yung Eck the same indulgence as he gets from the UK. Better oot and its looking close. What would you do Skier if you no longer could blame England with your sad hard done tae stories.

      Delete
    2. Get on with being a successful independent country, of course, 23.

      Delete
  3. Has anyone figured out who is finding GWC and Aldo? I've been reading this blog for years now and I'm surprised at the continued presence on the comments section.

    No one is sad enough to put the much effort in, just off their own back. Must be someone funding it.

    @Scottishskier, yes that would be hilarious :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 16, 2016 at 8:56 PM

      You are right Anon it is a conspiracy I am funded by the Free Mason ludge on Gruinard. Well done you are not as thick as I thought.

      Delete
    2. Gruinard? Well, that would explain the toxic mess you keep leaving on here, 23.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 16, 2016 at 9:22 PM

      The toxic mess is the EU and Nat si ism.Yourself included.

      Delete
    4. Chin up, 23. You're still providing us with comedy gold.

      Delete
  4. Northern Ireland will vote to stay in. When Queenie and Cameron purr, the sash and bowler brigade all have orgasms.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rumour (and intuition) says that Queenie wants out, though.

      Delete
  5. Im for a no vote if it means can get out the EU song contest

    ReplyDelete
  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  7. There seems to be a remarkable confidence among commentators in Westminster that Remain will win this.

    From everything I can see, it seems impossible for Remain to win. Their campaign is as ludicrous as Better Together's, if anything the lies are more elaborate and less believable.

    Meanwhile Leave has the Patriotic card to play to Little England. And with no corollary like there was with the British Nationalists in the Scottish Referendum, there's just no compelling reason not to vote Leave if you are a British Nationalist. And that is a very strong mindset in England.

    I don't see how Leave can get less than 55% and expect 60% to be more likely.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 16, 2016 at 11:49 PM

      It has nothing to do with patriotism just common sense. Why waste tax payers money on a bunch of wasters. When we leave the EU will collapse and the job seekers will increase. The gravy train is I hope about to hit the buffers.

      Delete
    2. Nah, you're a British nationalist, 23. Like many Labour people, your commitment to internationalism stops at Dover.

      Delete
  8. What I find strange is that it seems like it should be the other way round. The people who are going to vote leave skew older than the people who are going to vote stay. I would imagine that older people are more likely to be reached by a phone poll, while younger people are more likely to be polled online, and yet it's the phone polls that put remain ahead.

    I look forward to the post-referendum analysis of what went wrong with at least one of these methodologies.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 12:58 AM

    HAAAAMMMM MUSTARD HAAAAAMMMMM

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 1:11 AM

      Sad knobend impersonator Nat si at 12:58am. And offering Nat si usual shite. Nae wonder you lost.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 1:35 AM

      ICH BIN DIE NAWBAAAG NAAT SII

      Delete
    3. Poor deluded 23, still fighting the referendum campaign and screeching the same tired Nazi bile. Lost badly last year, lost badly this year. Just the Tammany Halls to clear out next year.

      Delete
  10. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 7:05 AM

    Flute, bowler hat, 23, big bass drum.

    Da da da

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "When we (who) leave the EU will collapse" - if "we" leave the UK will collapse - it's on the verge of another recession right now. If you were the socialist you claim to be you would be worried about the number of folk who will lose their jobs if the more obscene of the Bullingdon Boys has his way! Why don't you go and infect another blog - something like the Telegraph or Daily Mail where they just love tame Jocks they can push around - all for you well being of course!

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 10:59 AM

      How many thousands would have lost their jobs if the nat si bawbags had won. England would have had to put barbed wire along its border to stop you yesser pricks from crawling oot.

      Delete
    3. Poor deluded 23, still fighting the referendum campaign and screeching the same tired Nazi bile. Lost badly last year, lost badly this year. Just the Tammany Halls to clear out next year.

      Delete
    4. GWC2 - every day in every way you prove what I say. Go away!

      Delete
  11. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/732318723810430977

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 55% (+4)
    Leave: 40% (-3)
    (via ORB, phone)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A stonking lead for remain, obtained through what is believed to be the more accurate method - phone.

      I still think we are on course for a large-ish remain victory, reflected in all 4 of the home nations. The nationalists will then need to latch on to something else - female journalists leading our Scottish MPs astray, perhaps.

      Aldo

      Delete
    2. I'm hoping for a Remain. Say 45-49.9% Leave. Even better if it's Scotland that'd carried it.

      I'll then order in a new load of popcorn in relation to what Farage is on about below.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 11:29 AM

      Och well Skier who will you crawl tae if we vote tae leave! An independent Scotland outside the EU and the Union. We could compete with the Greeks for foodbanks. The Sally Ann would be in their element.

      Delete
    4. Poor deluded 23, still fighting the referendum campaign and screeching the same tired Nazi bile. Lost badly last year, lost badly this year. Just the Tammany Halls to clear out next year.

      Delete
  12. LOL. Surely if it is a 'Remain', it will be the matter 'settled for a generation' and Leavers will need to 'accept the result and move on'?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681

    Nigel Farage: Narrow Remain win may lead to second referendum

    There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The dogs in the street know Farage and Boris won't accept a narrow Remain verdict and move on. If the result is as close as is predicted, you couldn't blame them for wanting to keep the pressure on Call Me Dave.

      Delete
    2. Hold on, but I thought No means No, forever?

      https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/holyrood/417875/row-after-sturgeon-accused-of-holding-nuremburg-style-rallies/

      Mr Thackeray, [now former] chief-of-staff to Mr Coburn who was elected earlier this year, said:

      "...doesn’t need divisive ‘Neverendum’ politics, just everyone to accept the result of a democratic referendum in which the majority of ....voted to remain forever in the union and said ‘no means no’."

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 11:53 AM

      If it is a remain then so be it. The people have spoken. Perhaps you Nat sis will accept that the people have spoken. I notenjoy your Nat sis in Holyrood have still not come up with a currency. After all those years in power and we cannot print a note or mint a coin. So basically they want incependence but crawl to England or the EU for help.

      Delete
    4. I can't see Scotland swinging the vote - too small compared to the overall population.

      There will be no rerun. It's just not an issue people are hugely passionate about - and the turnout will bear this out, I believe. Plus where do you expect the anti EU surge to come from? The yessers had the SNP and to a lesser extent the Greens. The Brexiteers have UKIP. Do you honestly see a UKIP clean sweep at the next GE on 45+% of the vote?

      No, neither do I.

      Aldo

      Delete
    5. We just need UKIP to take 8 seats off the Tories and the fun begins. The likely Tory split will just liven things up.

      You are talking to people in England right Aldo? You know, regular folks on non-political forums etc? There is a lot of passion for indy down there and they are so not going to shut up.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 12:48 PM

      The 8 Ukipers would vote with the Tories.

      Delete
    7. There will be no rerun. It's just not an issue people are hugely passionate about - and the turnout will bear this out, I believe. Plus where do you expect the anti EU surge to come from? The yessers had the SNP and to a lesser extent the Greens. The Brexiteers have UKIP. Do you honestly see a UKIP clean sweep at the next GE on 45+% of the vote?

      No, neither do I.


      Did you see the SNP doing that in 2015, a month out from the independence referendum?

      It would be rash to dismiss the possibility of a significant boost for UKIP. After all, we're only having a referendum because the Prime Minister considered them an electoral threat.

      Delete
    8. The SNP had already won a landslide at Holyrood 3 years previously. To date, UKIP has 1 MP and is viewed disfavourably as a sort of gang of ageing fascists in suits. They lack wide appeal.

      Delete
    9. Up here, definitely. However, 3.8 million votes in last year's general election would suggest that their message - revolting though it is - is chiming with many people in England.

      Delete
  13. Timothy (likes zebras)May 17, 2016 at 11:04 AM

    Is there a Nuneaton-style local council that is likely to declare early and be reasonably representative of the national result?

    I'd like to be able to go to bed at 3am BST with a good idea of the result.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I imagine a vote of this magnitude will have an exit poll.

      Delete
  14. Glasgow Working Class 2May 17, 2016 at 6:08 PM

    EUzealous Jewsellus useless

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What on earth are you wibbling about now, 23?

      Delete
  15. If you look at James' online poll of polls and assume that remain takes 60% of the undecideds on the day, it put remain just above 50%.

    So, even with the most pessimistic of polls for remain, we can still reasonably expect a remain victory.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Cameron said previously he would fix the EU Ref.
    Just like him and his election software pals did with the Scottish Ref.
    Job done.

    ReplyDelete
  17. And I agree that sometimes this blog looks like Aldo and Glasgow Fuckwit giving each other blow jobs.
    Apparently that's quite common in the 77th.

    ReplyDelete
  18. And I agree that sometimes this blog looks like Aldo and Glasgow Fuckwit giving each other blow jobs.
    Apparently that's quite common in the 77th.

    ReplyDelete
  19. ClixSense is an high paying work from home website.

    ReplyDelete