Saturday, May 21, 2016

EU Poll of Polls tightens after release of YouGov's split test

When I posted about the EU referendum polls yesterday (and updated this blog's Poll of Polls), I somehow managed to miss the big polling story of the day - that YouGov had conducted side-by-side online and phone polls to test a theory about what might be causing the discrepancy between the findings produced by each method, and that both polls had shown a small Leave lead.  This is just the second time in the whole campaign that a phone poll has reported an outright lead for Leave.  It only seems to have happened because YouGov were especially persistent in trying to contact potential telephone respondents, and as a result eventually managed to speak to enough non-graduates, who are more likely to be Leave voters.  Bizarrely, at almost exactly the same moment that these findings were released, the very recently-retired former President of YouGov Peter Kellner was expounding his own theory that greater persistence in reaching respondents would have precisely the opposite effect - it would turn up hidden masses of socially liberal people who are more likely to vote Remain.

It was rather amusing to see the personal attack that YouGov's current management then made on Peter Kellner.  I seem to recall that whenever I criticised Kellner during the indyref or questioned his motivations, it was cited as evidence that I was plainly an uncivilised cybernat lunatic!  It's gratifying to see they've belatedly come around to my way of thinking...

Seriously, though, it's hard to escape the impression that YouGov were casting around for a reason why they as an online pollster might be right and the phone pollsters might be wrong.  They homed in on educational attainment and it gave them the results they wanted, but you do have to wonder if they could have magically 'proved' the complete opposite - ie. that phone polls are more accurate - if they had lavished their attention on a different factor instead.

The bottom line is that the uncertainty continues, although two newly-released polls showing a Leave lead obviously has a significant impact on the Poll of Polls.  (Both polls are somewhat out of date, but they were mostly conducted within the last three weeks, and therefore qualify for inclusion in the Poll of Polls.)

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 45.5% (-2.3)
Leave 41.0% (-0.7)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 41.9% (-1.4)
Leave 42.7% (-1.3)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 49.0% (-3.3)
Leave 39.2% (-0.1)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last three weeks. The online average is based on seven polls - three from ICM, three from YouGov and one from TNS. The telephone average is based on five polls - one from ICM, one from YouGov, one from ORB, one from Ipsos-Mori and one from ComRes.)

44 comments:

  1. James Kelly

    Who are you?
    What have you done in your life before that has given you the capacity to write a political blog?

    IF

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probably he has real life experiences, not somebody who is nothing more than a political commentator.

      Delete
    2. IF, to quote Eddie Izzard, "this is not a game of who the f*** are you".

      Delete
    3. He's James Kelly, legend, master blogger, champion polling reviewer, eurovision fan.

      All round good guy!

      Who the hell are you?

      Delete
    4. For a start, he can spell his own surname.....

      Alex Birnie

      Delete
    5. Does it matter what he has done in life before? Oh and anybody could in theory write a political blog.

      If you were in any way at all familiar with Political Betting then you might have been familiar with James from there. James is somewhat more tolerant when it comes to banning people than Political Betting became.

      Of course I am forced to ask have you left school yet?

      Delete
  2. It's a genuine question not intended for deriding or mocking James.

    Who the fuck is James Kelly? I am intrigued.

    Alex Birnie - I deliberately spell my name with 3 s's to leave you guessing if i have the two or one s spelling of my name.

    IF

    ReplyDelete
  3. Secretly, James has advised campaigns around the world for more than 5 decades. As a youngster, it was he who advised ms Thatcher to roll the dice on her " let's drain all the resources from Scotland and prop up the English" scheme. A young man at the time, Jimmy meant sarcastically. Unfortunately, this incident did not cure Mr Kelly of his snarky ways...after advising successful politicians with his uncannily precise polling analysis from America ( Bill Clinton) to japan( some Japanese guy who was premier for three months before resigning) , Jim got a man crush on a young Tony Blair...what..??? ..sorry. Why are you so rude? Maybe his lack of whoreing for loser parties and media suck- asses is exactly what qualifies him. As for spelling your name, you are on a blog called scotgoespop..just use your duck in name!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Iain Fergussson,

    Who are you?

    James Kelly is a blogger who does psephology. He seems to be quite good at it. You, on the other hand, seem to be another nobody, a tad like myself.

    I am intrigued to know who the fuck you are.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bill Gates. What have you done in life that you want to write an operating system. Mark Zuckerberg, what have you done in life that you want to start a social network.

    JK is a good blogger. His history matters not. The content is good. Its a good resource. This is the 21st Century. Who the fu#k knows why anyone does anything.

    Read the blog and decide if its for you. If it is stay, if its not you are free to go. If you want to troll, please just fuc# off. This site already has two of those. All it needs a bridge.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 22, 2016 at 1:00 AM

      I am Glasgow Working Class and consitent in calling for the the better aff tae dig doon in their pockets tae help their not sae better aff Scots. The Nat si party have a problem with my suggestion.


      Delete
    2. You realise that by responding you admitted that you are a troll seeking a bridge? You , my good sir, are in luck! You clearly enjoy being under the control of London. And the real London bridge is in lake havasu , arizona, USA. You move, we all win!

      Delete
    3. You realise that by responding you admitted that you are a troll seeking a bridge? You , my good sir, are in luck! You clearly enjoy being under the control of London. And the real London bridge is in lake havasu , arizona, USA. You move, we all win!

      Delete
    4. Gates didn't write an operating system. He bought it for a steal after selling it for a fortune.

      Delete
  6. Why so much hostility?

    I just want to know more bout James.


    We know who other Pro Indy bloggers and activitists were before they became bloggers and activists...

    I just want know more about James. Does he have a job? If so what is it?

    Is he postman, a lawyer, a traffic warden, a teacher, a mathematician, a farmer, a lollipop man, a carpenter, an artist, a footballer, a dole jakey, a fire man...???

    What are his hobbies? Where does he live? What music does he like? What's his favourite and least favourite parts of Scotland? How many fingers does he have? Does he have a dressing gown? what doe he eat for breakfast? Why does he get up so early some days? Can he drive? does he drive? Whats the fastest he has driven? when did he have his first chugg?

    IF

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear God. What is this - Piers Morgan's Life Stories?

      I actually think I've been pretty open about myself compared to some bloggers. I've used my real name from (almost) the very start. Regular readers know what I look and sound like because I've posted pictures and videos. My full ethnic background is common knowledge - so much so that I received constant racial abuse for it at the website Political Betting. I've also mentioned my home town on a number of occasions - although it sounds like you won't settle for anything less than a full address!

      What music do I like? I refer you to the several billion posts about my second favourite subject...

      Delete
    2. I'm also curious what your professional background is, but at the end of the day that's your business. It's not like you're getting paid.

      I do have what is hopefully a less contentious question though : It says at the top of the page 'voted one of Scotland's top 10 political websites', and that's been there for as long as I've been reading, which is a few years. What's the story behind that?

      Delete
    3. There used to be an annual 'political blogging awards' run by Total Politics (Iain Dale's outfit), which was a glorified poll. So I would sometimes put a reference in the masthead to how Scot Goes Pop had done in the most recent poll. The awards haven't run since 2011, but Wings did run a one-off poll in around 2013, so that's what the current wording refers to. I reckon it's still a valid claim, because no-one has run a poll like that since (or not that I know of, anyway).

      Delete
  7. LOL, so the whole comments section was about something else! I guess if someone genuinely wants to know about a blogger they could email them and make a request. Seems simple.

    ReplyDelete
  8. James

    I do apologise for my language, it was unnecessary. Keep blogging.

    IF

    ReplyDelete
  9. In a quite bizarre lists of comments, I actually laughed out loud at dafty McGibbons (Glasgow Working Class 2) desperate cry for attention!

    Back to the EU ref, I noticed a headline on MSN saying that a memo kept secret by Downing Street shows that Britain is loosing Billions of pounds a year to the EU that we are not being told about.

    Not sure if other media outlets will be running with this info, but it could be a game changer if it's true.

    I wonder if this is the first time that Downing Street/Westminster have buried financial information showing a country is loosing billions of pounds a year, as a result of being in a union?

    Hmmmmm!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 22, 2016 at 10:35 PM

      Paitraig, you just have an agenda which does not include helping the poor. You are just a James the shoite supporter. Basically a knob and a loser. Everyone has a Willy except you.

      Delete
    2. ...and the scary thing is, that response took 23 the whole ten hours...

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 23, 2016 at 8:51 AM

      Terribly earth shaking scary,Nat si bhoy.

      Delete
    4. It took 23 that long to remember that writing on the screen with crayons doesn't publish posts.

      Delete
    5. "everyone has a willy except you"

      Oh the pain!!! hahaha, GWC2 always good for a laugh (although he doesn't mean it)

      Delete
  10. England will vote Leave; that's why I'll be voting Remain. Anything that highlights the differences between Scotland and England has to be welcomed since in further undermines the disgusting so-called united kingdom.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 23, 2016 at 1:32 PM

      What kind of stupid nat si are you. If we leave then wee knickerless will call another referendum. Thought that was what you nat sis wanted!

      Delete
    2. You can almost hear the chunks of crayon peppering the screen...

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 23, 2016 at 11:28 PM

      The nat si chunkies are just shaggin in London and collecting their salaries. The Brit system has got them. Just waiting for wee Eck to go to the Lords followed by the nat si spin justifying it. Nat sis thick as shite, duh.

      Delete
    4. 23 seems to have developed an unhealthy obsession with other people's sex lives. It's a disturbing development.

      Delete
    5. "disgusting...United Kingdom"

      Which part of it is disgusting exactly? The free healthcare? The benefits? The 15 billion pound Scottish subsidy? The huge spend on foreign aid? The commitment to human rights?

      What is it that irks you so?

      Aldo

      Delete
  11. Interesting Scotland on Sunday poll today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll wait to see the datasets and the wording of the questions before deciding how interesting it is. What I will say for now is that Scotland on Sunday are putting the traditionally hysterical "another blow for Sturgeon" spin on a poll that actually appears to show only very modest shifts of opinion - indeed they're so modest that they could potentially be explained by normal sampling variation.

      Delete
  12. In better news. Scotland thrashed England at their home 7's event and won the final against Zud Afrique.

    Looking forward to us doing the same at the Olympics! Erm.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Prof Curtice's EU poll of polls has hit a record high for Remain of 56% vs 44% Leave (ex DK) on the back of the latest ORB.

    http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

    That kind of result would settle the matter for a generation, a lifetime even right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unless the Brexiteers start referring to themselves as 'the 44' and all vote UKIP at the next election, I suspect that will be the end of it for a very long time.

      Moreover, Britain will have had 3 great constitutional referenda in half a decade (AV, indy, EU) and there will be a sense that people want to move on from endless attempts at constitutional tinkering.

      Aldo

      Delete
    2. When you see Aldo reverentially agreeing with a mischievous point from Scottish Skier, you know there's something odd going on. He's that rarest of Tories - a man whose fear of Scottish self-determination outweighs absolutely everything, even EU-bashing.

      Scottish Skier : The headline figures in Curtice's Poll of Polls are almost meaningless, because no allowance at all is made for the telephone/online problem.

      Delete
    3. But Scottish Skier doesn't want the matter settled for a generation or a lifetime. He wants a big stooshie and / or a swift rerun that will destabilise the United Kingdom thereby leading to Scottish independence. On these figures, he wont get what he is hoping for.

      On the EU, I'm not particularly bothered. I understand and sympathise with arguments on both sides. However, if backing one side strengthens the UK union then that is the side I will back. I do not want Scotland becoming an impoverished, authoritarian, single party outpost. That would impact materially on my quality of life.

      Aldo

      Delete
    4. You've said many times that there is no possibility of Scottish independence happening in our lifetimes - but you're going to vote to stay in the EU in order to reduce that chance even further from zero?

      Delete
    5. I don't think I ever said the chances were 'zero'. There remains the possibility of another referendum inside the next 10-15 years. Should it come, I want to be able to say "you leave the UK, you leave the EU as well". It seemed to be a particularly influential argument last time out.

      Aldo

      Delete