Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Blushes all round for clueless Tories as it emerges that there WILL be a clear majority in the Scottish Parliament for a second independence referendum in the event of Brexit

I wouldn't actually recommend visiting Conservative Home, but what you'd see if you did is the bizarre spectacle of Tory bloggers and commentators furiously agreeing with each other that Scotland "voted against a second referendum" last Thursday.  It may seem decidedly odd that we did this by electing a second consecutive pro-independence majority, and by re-electing the SNP government for an unprecedented third consecutive term in office, but apparently we made our views known by means of a special code that only Tories can decipher.  You'll also be intrigued to learn that the most important effect of this cunningly disguised 'decision' is that the mass army of Scottish Brexiteers who have just been pretending to be Remain voters to keep our beloved United Kingdom together will now feel safe enough to follow their hearts, and the huge Remain lead in Scotland will pretty much vanish overnight.

Hmmmm.  I'm sorry to have to acquaint these people with the real world, but the Scottish Green leader Patrick Harvie has now been quoted as saying that his party would vote in favour of any SNP plan for a second independence referendum in the event of Brexit.  So we can forget all the hypothesising about how the arithmetic would work out if the Greens abstain, or whatever - we now know for sure that any post-Brexit proposal for an independence referendum would be passed by the Scottish Parliament by either 69 votes to 59, or 68 votes to 60 (depending on which party supplies the Presiding Officer).  In other words, absolutely nothing has changed over the last week - we have a pro-independence parliament, and it does exactly what it says on the tin.

To coin a phrase, I wonder if the Tory commentariat have a "Plan B"?

73 comments:

  1. Perhaps Mr Cameron does not have time to read that website, as he said (reported in The Herald) that Brexit could lead to the breakup of the UK. He for one was at least paying attention to the make up of the newly elected parliament in Holyrood.

    Shagpile.

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  2. The Tories in Scotland are a bit like a boxer who has been almost counted out after being floored a number of times and manages to struggle to his feet one last time.
    Delusional expectations of winning the contest probably as a result of brain damage received in previous encounters.

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  3. Do the seps have a plan B, for when Brexit doesn't materialise?

    Aldo

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    1. Looks like it, "Sturgeon plans summer of independence". They are off back to the drawing board to come up with Plan B.

      Don't forget Aldo, research has found that up to 70% of the population would vote for independence under certain reasonable circumstances. And the No vote only just won it and not through positive campaigning.

      Think about it next time it comes around, the arguement on the £ is diluted after Mervin King's recent statement. You can't use the more powers card again. Betrayal on shipbuilding. HS2 not coming to Scotland. Renewables investment cut. Pensions are still at risk. Retirement age is rising. Employment rights are being reduced. The BBC's reputation is tarnished. The main stream papers are dieing a quick death.

      I wouldn't put money on either side (just for the record) but the No side have sold their soul for the union.

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    2. You have no economic case - and no mandate. The result of the first referendum is less than 2 years old. The SNP can campaign for independence but all they'll do is annoy people and distract themselves from their devolved government duties - and face an even greater punishment at the next election.

      The future's bright - the future's red white & blue.

      Aldo

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    3. Vive la France!

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  4. Continue to build a positive case for Independence, this time ruthlessly excluding the Trotskyite diddy parties, and answering the reasonable questions that people had in 2014 more convincingly.

    Obviously

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  5. Yes, we do. Having "done our bit" in the successful "stay" campaign, we will concentrate on making Scotland a better place to live, trying as best as we can to minimise the negative effects that the Bullingdon Boy "geniuses" are having on our country, waiting for enough of our country to become enamoured of the idea of self-government, at which time, we'll hold ref2 and say an unfond farewell to the Tories. That's our plan B.
    Alex Birnie

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  6. Oh! I forgot one thing.......watching "bull-rider woman" squirm as she tries unsuccessfully to be avoid being associated with the Bullingdon Boy "geniuses". Now, THAT will be fun! :)
    Alex Birnie

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  7. Papers today quoting "sources close to" Sturgeon as saying that the possibility of another independence referendum has receded with the result of the Holyrood election.

    You have no majority and no mandate. Now the SNP must answer its true calling in life - refuse disposal etc.

    Aldo

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    1. Dunno if it's escaped you but there's an overall majority of pro-independence MSP's in Holyrood. So if a referendum goes to a vote in parliament, what do you think will happen?

      I love this unionist mantra - 'no mandate, no mandate...' but the reality is there most certainly is, and it's the same as 2011. Arguably, it's even stronger this time, as it's multi-party support.


      So once you've stopped celebrating your Tory, errm, 'victory' have a think about that.

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    2. There is no mandate as the manifestos of the SNP and Greens were ambiguous on the matter of an indyref as well as being at odds with each other. The British Parliament can just say "no". There is no pressure on them whatsoever to grant you another.

      Aldo

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    3. 1 You haven't read the Green manifesto.
      2 It would be a Scottish Nationalist dream, to have the UK Government publicly block an independence referendum. Which is why it'll never happen.
      3. Did you miss Patrick Harvie's quote in the Herald, which is what the above article is referring to?

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    4. If Holyrood votes for a referendum, I suspect the UK Government will indeed block it. That risks increasing support for independence in the long term, but this would at least stop it happening on their watch. Why should Cameron and co give a shit if Scotland becomes independent after they've left office?

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    5. Short of calling the troops in to physically prevent people voting there's nothing they can do. The threat of non binding referendum with three options including Devo Max is what pushed Cameron into a binding one.

      In this case DM would be full autonomy within the UK with irrevocably devolved powers other than defence and some aspects of foreign policy.

      Depending on how generous Holyrood was feeling the vote would be first and second choice.

      If the winning option is independence then game over.

      If the winning option is remaining as now the game over.

      The only interesting option is if DM comes on top with independence second.

      Westminster could either acknowledge the result or refuse it.

      This time round if they want to grant the power for a binding referendum then no negotiating away a third choice if that's the will of all MSPs except the Conservatives. A motion passed at 97:31 can hardly be called undemocratic.

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    6. The UK government can suspend Holyrood as it did with Stormont. It can also advise unionists not to participate in any unofficial referenda. So you end up with a 99% independence vote based on less than half the people who turned out last time. Humiliation for the separatists and a fatal loss of credibility would follow, worldwide.

      Any referendum must be endorsed by the British Parliament. You do not get to override authority. Just as you and I have to pull over for the police, so must Holyrood defer to Westminster. It is this calm, ordered, structured society with a hierarchy of authority that keeps us in a civilised way of life. You can campaign for what you want - but you cannot force the issue (especially when the people already said NO).

      Also, devomax = full fiscal autonomy = unaffordable. The same problems still apply - you'd be billions short.

      Never mind - maybe Stewart Hosie can put our minds at ease this summer about all this stuff. ROFLMAO!!! :0)

      Aldo

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  8. I agree with David Cameron in that a Brexit while Scotland votes Remain justifies another Scottish iref. As he says, we are a voluntary union and can't force things such as an EU exit on each other.

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  9. Aldo

    The trouble is that the media use "sources close to" to mean two contradictory things: either (a) this person told me off record or (b) this is something we've made up. (a) is mainly used for politicians they support, (b) for those they don't. So in this case we many be able to guess the more likely meaning.

    In truth the SNP strategy for a second referendum has been pretty explicit for a long time. They are watching to see if opinion polling (and they will have private polling to go on as well) will give a substantial lead for Yes over a good period, so that a win is assured. That isn't happening at the moment. The most recent poll showed Yes 41%, No 48% and that is pretty much unchanged over the last year and more.

    Most voters in Scotland have made up their mind, though that may change under pressure of events. But a second referendum hasn't been a high SNP priority for a while. Although the last campaign seems to have changed the mind of perhaps 10-15% of the electorate long-term, they aren't guaranteed a similar effect again.

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    1. "That isn't happening at the moment."

      Except of course in phone/face-to-face polling. We've had three such polls since the referendum, all of them showing a Yes lead. But we know you discount the significance of that - in fact you even went to the lengths of creating a phantom ICM telephone poll showing a No lead to muddy the waters!

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    2. Aldo, as someone with no skin in the game, I need to know: why do you constantly post highly selective facts on a site that has the averages already displayed. If you think James is lying, just say so like a man or go away. There have been two elections since the referendum. It is clear that there is no clear majority for independence. Claiming only 41% support at this point confounds any realistic intelligent reasoning. Are you really just a made up patsy for James to "knock around" ? I am beginning to wonder. Of its at 41%, the Tories should just schedule another ref at the brexit vote and end it.

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    3. Roger Mexico != Aldo

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  10. "...the bizarre spectacle of Tory bloggers and commentators furiously agreeing with each other that Scotland "voted against a second referendum" last Thursday."

    The tories just don't get it. It's hilarious. They actually believe the britnat media too! Only because the britnat media believes the tories.

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  11. The SNP are the only party who have independence as their only reason to exist. Therefore the fact they alone did not win an overall majority of the seats or popular vote makes it very clear the SNP have no mandate to call for a referendum. That is not to deny that along with the Greens they have the parliamentary arithmetic for a pro-independence coalition but the Greens stand for more than just independence...their leadership may state that they would vote for independence but you cannot by any means assume that all their voters feel the same.

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    1. Actual promises aside, you don't need a mandate to hold a referendum. A government can attempt to pass any bill it wishes. It just risks peeing off the electorate if it tries to do stuff they don't want, and may pay for that electorally.

      Likewise, there is no such thing as a legally binding referendum. All referendums are consultative. Likewise they are all legal if free and fair. It's only acting on them that you'd need to be careful. In the case of Scotland, if Holyrood went ahead with another iref that for some reason Westminster objected too, it would not matter what Westminster thought, but what the rest of the world thought, as that's who decides your are independent.

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    2. Well said....

      When you elect a government you give them the mandate to exercise power as they see fit...they do not need to consult the public at any time. If the public disagree they get the chance to force the govt to change tack by petition or local action....but the government doesn't need to change its mind.

      Manifestos do not represent a cast iron guarantee of what a government will do nor is it legally binding, nor can it act as a block to government acting in other areas not included in the manifesto - to infer otherwise is a bit silly.

      If the government chooses to hold a referendum - it can

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    3. I'm glad there exists the division of powers that we enjoy within the United Kingdom. Here we have posters seriously endorsing a rerun of the independence campaign when we already decided on the issue, based on a mandate that is non existent (neither Greens nor SNP promised a referendum), and an economic case that has been blown apart. If the Holyrood parliament were to proceed with such morally unsound behaviour (I am sure they will not), then it is the Westminster government's constitutional duty to step in and refuse them. Anything else disrespects the will and welfare of the people of Scotland - who are also, for the time being, British citizens.

      "There is no such thing as a legally binding referendum". Debatable. If Parliament is determined to enforce the outcome, then it's legally binding - or as good as - from our point of view as citizens.

      Interestingly, if a Yes vote were ever to occur in a future secession plebiscite - and the UK government were to follow it up with a second referendum following a negotiation process - do you think independence supporters would accept that their previous win was 'not legally binding'?

      Aldo

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  12. In my opinion - humble, as always - the only thing that can now feck this up for the unionists is Brexit (and you can tell the seps know it too as they always bang on about Brexit). If, as is highly likely, the EU ref returns a 'remain' vote on the morning of June 24th, then at that moment the indy wars will be over. That's not to say they wont flare up again some 15 years or so down the line - but, for the foreseeable future, the union will be secure and the sore elbowists will have nowhere to go. I just hope they don't become violent like they did in George Square.

    Aldo

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    1. Who became violent in George Square? Remind me again? With proof please.

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    2. A pity that our more constructive Unionist contributor seems also to have devolved into a pointless wind-up merchant. Whatever happened to Stoat? You could have a sensible conversation with him/her.

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    3. You need a whopping great remain to settle the matter also. Polls have it 50/50 right now. What would be really cool is if Scotland keeps England in the EU. All hell will break loose politically down south. I'm chatting on forums to people down south and they are talking about civil disobedience and stuff.

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    4. As a witness in George Square, I can assure Aldo or Adolph or whatever he calls himself, it was Murdo Frasers'"Vanguard Bears" and their flute-playing bretheren with their "Seig Heil" salutes that caused any violence. There is plenty video evidence to substantiate this but don't expect to find it in the BBC archives.

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    5. The oracle has spoken. And it's 100% wishful thinking.

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    6. @Scottish skier...

      not only would Scotland keeping England in the EU be hilarious....it would be the fastest way to break up the UK

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    7. Glasgow Working Class 2May 10, 2016 at 7:36 PM

      I was a witness In GS during the afternoon after leaving the council tax office and the leftie nat sis were having some verbal with the loyalists. If the losers had stayed away then the problem would not have occurred.

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    8. Nice of you to say so, keaton. Been quite busy recently. There's the Labour campaign, work commitments, family commitments, writing Sonic the Hedgehog fanfiction. I've been a busy bee.

      And skier, probably best if you don't listen to the mouthbreathers on right wing websites. The whole civil disobedience is idea is something that only exists in the fevered imaginations of the most extreme fringes of the Brexit campaign.

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    9. Sure stoat, but I'm kind surprised to encounter that on a popular weather forum. Which incidentally, has it's own poll results the same as Prof C gets.

      It's quite enlightening chatting to proper SE Tories and Kippers.

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    10. Folks, the Georgie Square thing was a joke. Jeez - chill with the still!

      Skier, the telephone polling - which is regarded as being more accurate as it isn't skewed towards conservatism - shows a much more healthy 'remain' lead. There are also many undecided people who will, at the last minute, opt for the status quo option in their droves. I think there will be a vote to remain in each of the nations of the UK. And there will most certainly NOT be a quick rerun! It took us about 40 years to get this one.

      As for civil disobedience - what are they going to do, exactly? Leave things on the wrong shelf in Marks & Spencers?

      Aldo

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    11. In Scotland, telephone polling shows Yes ahead.

      We've seen what civil disobedience in England looks like many times, most recently in 2011.

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    12. But the most recent study into social attitudes in Scotland (which uses face to face I believe - reportedly the best way to interview), shows towering support for the union at something like 58 to 42%. That seems about right, considering the oil crash, massive tantrum throwing by the YES side etc.

      Do you think Brexiteers are the sort to riot and start fires Skier? I've got this mental image just now of Farage panning in a shop window and running off with a TV.

      Nah. As entertaining as that would be, it wont happen.

      Aldo

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  13. unprecedented third consecutive term in office

    You'd certainly hope it was unprecedented, given we've only had 5 elections...

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  14. Aye the Tories are punch drunk, defo concussed. Why doesn't the referee put a stop to it? Oh wait a minute their isn't a ref as he is as concussed as the Tories. The Ref being the obsequious Brit Nat Press and Media!

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  15. Even if their is a Brexit I don't think there will be a second independence referendum during this Holyrood session (2016-2021). If the UK does leave the EU, then I would expect the SNP to go into the 2021 Holyrood elections with a clear commitment to holding an independence referendum.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 10, 2016 at 7:50 PM

      Why should they. Scotland has relatively low unemployment being in the Union. Why blow it because of a brexit. The UK has tens of thousands Spanish, Italians and Portuguese workers fleeing poverty. The EU is corrupt and not working class friendly just look at what the EU has imposed on Greece. The Nat sis really have to throw of this hatred of the English and wake up to reality.

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    2. Thanks for that incoherent drivel, 24.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 10, 2016 at 10:50 PM

      Hey Anon, when you were in GS on that glorious day 20 SSeptember 2014 what flag were you waving, the red hammer and sickle or did you change it to the fash saltire? You Nat sis are a confused bunch of oddities.

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    4. Not half as confused as you are, 24.

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  16. 'Nat sis'

    All you can do is scoff.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 10, 2016 at 10:38 PM

      I am being moderate with you lot of class traitor Nat si scum that promised the world and shit on the poor. Go back to your GE promises last year. Firing squad is to good for you.

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    2. So angry, dearie. Did you miss Bob the Builder again?

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  17. Peninsula--I think the potty training went wrong in the early years

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 10, 2016 at 11:26 PM

      Aaaww nice you have a bum chum tae share the same chanty, dead sweet.

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    2. Homophobia too. Is there no beginning to your talents, 24?

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 11, 2016 at 11:13 AM

      Nae end tae yer drivel Nat si Bhoy. And why were you in George Sq 20 September 2014. Just an innocent bystander!

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    4. 'Nat Si Bhoy.' That was a good one. So you're one of the peeepul. Now it all makes sense.

      Why is it that so many of you are dribbling incoherent wrecks?

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    5. When you are fed the kind of crap GWC believes all your life what else do your expect? - Someone who thinks for themselves or just a follower of the band?
      Takes courage and coherence of thought to break away from the propaganda provided by London! And think of the joy to be able to hate everyone except of course the "peepul"! What an embarrassment to humanity!

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    6. Yep. Realising that you've sacrificed all your principles to bag carry for the likes of Boris and Call Me Dave has to hurt. That's why auld 24 lashes out with abuse.

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    7. Says the bag carrier for Wee Nippy. At least Cameron is upper class - things must be really bad if you look 'up' to Wee Nippy!

      Aldo

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    8. 31. That is all.

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    9. 31 and 63 - both of them less than 65.

      Aldo

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    10. Thanks for the arithmetic lesson. Now, any chance of the right-wing media catching on to this? Nah, thought not...

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  18. Glasgow Working Class 2May 11, 2016 at 5:29 PM

    Hey Anon Nat si Bhoy why were you in George Square on 20 September 2014 causing trouble interrupting the great celebration by the Loyal Unionists?
    So you also do not recognise England as a country. I suspect you do not recognise Israel.

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    1. Chin up, 24.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. I've heard the queen stinks of piss. What do you reckon, do you think she does?

      But the funniest thing of all, is that you drooling bottom-feeders are dying out at an ever increasing rate.

      The vast majority of people in Scotland have three reactions to you now. Disgust, pity, or they point and laugh. Fear is not one of them anymore.

      And just FYI, I'm not a Catholic or a Celtic supporter.

      I was born into a Free Presbyterian family in the Highlands, in case you don't know, that's as Protestant as it gets. But I can tell shite when I see it, and I can also tell when a country has been duped and colonised over centuries. You're the living proof of it.

      So I'll point and laugh

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  19. Delighted to know that you approve of (You missed out "Brave")"Loyal Unionists" pushing a couple of young girls around, pushing the Butcher's apron in their faces and, just to insult the memory of all Scots who have died for Britain's welfare, giving Nazi salutes. No wonder incoherence and name calling are your stock in trade!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 11, 2016 at 7:36 PM

      You are a disgrace to even say butchers apron. Our ancestors fought fascism and were proud to fly the Union Flag. But no doubt some Nat sis would have fought for Adolf given the chance.

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    2. Comedy gold. You're a gift that keeps on giving, 24.

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    3. GWC2 - I'm sure you are proud of the thugs who abused your flag of choice accompanying the flying of it with NAZI salutes. This abuse of a flag, any flag, insults the memory of anyone who died for it!

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  20. Glasgow Working Class 2May 11, 2016 at 7:13 PM

    Mr Mclean, you have your version but failed to mention the pensioner assaulted by the New Age leftie fascists. And I do approve of people celebrating peacefully. But you do have to explain why various leftie groups had converged on George Square. The National Socialists had lost the election.

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    1. Not my "version" - the entire disgrace is on film. You fail to mention the 80 year old man who had his wrist broken by a unionist in Edinburgh and the (now) Labour MP from England who kicked a nationalist - still the subject of a court case. It's true what they say about bigots - waste of time proving their stupidity to them!

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