Wednesday, April 6, 2016

This TNS poll is so God-awful for Scottish Labour that J K Rowling didn't even have a perfect response to effortlessly shut it down

The monthly TNS poll of Holyrood voting intentions came out earlier today, and the big news is that Labour have returned to their all-time low of 19% on the constituency vote.  They've only previously had one sub-20 showing on the constituency vote with TNS, and that was during the initial honeymoon period after the SNP's landslide victory in the UK general election last year.  To put it in perspective, they had recovered to as 'high' as 24% during the autumn, so it appears that something has gone seriously wrong since then.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 56% (-4)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservatives 15% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+2)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 47% (-8)
Labour 21% (n/c)
Conservatives 15% (+2)
Greens 8% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+2)
SSP 2% (+2)
UKIP 1% (+1)

Is there any cause for concern in the apparent drop in support for the SNP?  Not necessarily on the constituency ballot, because 56% remains within the normal TNS range for the SNP, albeit at the lower end of it.  However, 47% on the list ballot is easily the lowest TNS have reported since before the general election, and perhaps more importantly, the disparity between the two ballots is much bigger than normal.  Unlike with Survation (who routinely show the SNP losing a big chunk of their constituency voters on the list), that can't be explained by an inadvisable question wording.  The explanation offered by TNS themselves is that, as the election approaches, more voters may be recalling that they do have an option of using the list vote for a different party.  I'm slightly sceptical about that, because almost half of SNP constituency voters who switch parties on the list in this poll end up in the column of an anti-independence party.  If it was simply a case of SNP voters being emboldened to be more adventurous on the list, you wouldn't expect them to be going to Labour.  I'm wondering if we're just looking at a slightly weird sample here, but future polls will tell us one way or the other.

All the same, this is a moderately good poll for two of the smaller pro-independence parties.  8% for the Greens isn't unusually high, but it's towards the upper end of their normal range with TNS.  2% for the SSP is still well below the level at which RISE can realistically expect to win even one seat, but it does mark the first time since heaven-only-knows-when that any firm other than YouGov have put the SSP or RISE higher than 1%.  Time will tell whether that's a freak result.  The news remains grim for Tommy Sheridan's Solidarity, though - they're listed in the datasets, but they failed to trouble the scorer.  In the weighted sample, not a single respondent was a Solidarity voter (although the presence of an asterisk implies that they probably had a solitary voter in the unweighted sample).

Incidentally, UKIP would have joined the SSP on 2%, but they lost two-thirds of their voters when the turnout filter was applied.  That might be a little clue as to why David Coburn and his delightful chums are highly unlikely to grace Holyrood with their presence after May.  The European election two years ago was effectively a 'home' game for them, with their supporters disproportionately motivated to turn out, but a Scottish Parliament election is very much an 'away' fixture for the Brit Nat ultras.

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

I never got round to updating the Poll of Polls after the most recent Survation poll, so the percentage changes below take account of both Survation and TNS.  This is the first update in which Labour have slipped below 20% on the constituency ballot, although of course we're well used to seeing them below 20% on the list.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 52.4% (-0.8)
Labour 19.8% (-0.6)
Conservatives 16.6% (+0.4)
Liberal Democrats 6.2% (+0.8)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 45.8% (-1.8)
Labour 18.8% (-0.2)
Conservatives 16.8% (+1.2)
Greens 7.4% (+0.6)
Liberal Democrats 6.4% (+0.2)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have reported Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers over the previous three months, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are five - Panelbase, Survation, YouGov, TNS and Ipsos-Mori. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)

58 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. I remember when we used to get 7%. I expect about 50% if the current trends continue.

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  2. "IF" support for the SNP has slipped then two factors have influenced this... the bbc which accounts for 70% of ALL broadcasting within the Uk have been openly hostile to the SNP & to those Scots who voted in the GE by returning 56 mp's to wm... where they have managed to make some wonderful speeche's ... have mostly filled the benches allocated to them continuously... BUT have changed nothing as far as Scotland is concerned... sorry... legislation on road signs... but otherwise have simply gone along with wm rules & became part of the old chaps club.
    When 56 SNP mp's were returned by democratic mandate they should have adopted the same stance as Sien Fein did... and stayed in Scotland. What would have been the reaction of HM gov?... sent in troops?... Decreed ALL legislation as they are doing now??.. stopped us using the pound?... Whatever steps they would have taken would have been to our Independence benefit ....as history only remembers the risk takers.

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    1. Why would UKGov have "sent in troops" (or taken any action at all) if the SNP refused to take their seats?

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  3. Nah I think SNP slipping a wee bit because of their timidity on council tax and income tax and land reform. Think they should have set down a marker how things could be different and given the public a flavour of how an indy Scotland could have been. I'm SNP x 2 but I think if I was living in Edinburgh I defo would be voting green on the list to get Andy Wightman into the parliament - he would be a huge asset on land reform related stuff. The green guy in my neck of woods not much chop so SNP x2.
    They definitely could have been more radical without scaring the horses completely.

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    1. In my opinion, the idea that ruling out radical tax increases for average-income people is going to *hurt* the SNP is absolutely laughable. Land reform is more of a niche preoccupation, so that's unlikely to have much of an impact either.

      As I stated in the blogpost, this poll does not constitute evidence that there has been any drop in support for the SNP on the constituency ballot - 56% is within the normal range for TNS. The list result is an oddity, but it should be treated with caution until and unless it's replicated in future polls.

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    2. James, honestly, is GWC a real human or have you invented him?

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    3. He may or may not be real, but I certainly can't claim the 'credit' for him.

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  4. Time to get out and leaflet some houses and canvass!

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    1. Go! Go! Go!

      To the Nat Mobile!

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  5. Glasgow Working Class 2April 6, 2016 at 8:35 PM

    If the Jocks had voted for independence the SNP would have been the new Yellow Tory Party. Low tax, freezing council tax and dodgy deals with China. Almost reminds me of New Labour and Blue Tories.
    If we vote to leave the EU we will at least trim back on some corruption and be left with just the home grown.

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    1. Does yer maw drink gin does she drink it oot a bin does she get a funny feelin as her belly hits the ceiling does yer da drink wine does he drink it aw the time did he skelp yer arse for stealing when he came back hame beelin' is yer sister tight does she get it every night did she have a hairy fanny when she rode your brother Danny

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  6. And here we go with GWC pish. You have been on here for a year now really. Give up, who's paying you?

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    Replies
    1. I have to admit I really have a soft spot of him.

      Actually it is located in the quicksand's in the Solway Firth.

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    2. J.K Rowling?

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 6, 2016 at 9:32 PM

      Anon, if you noted I have been commenting for a year then how long have you been talking pish?
      Strange Edna you should mention the Solway. I am going back there soon to revisit my old residential holiday school after 50 yrs. I may oblige you in the quicksand. You can join me and we could sink together. You probably could not sink lowest than you did 19 Sept 2014.

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    4. "You could probably not sink lower than you did 19 Sept 2014"

      That's true actually, we won't. A little freudian slip from you there GWC.

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    5. "residential holiday school"?
      Borstal surely?

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    6. Glasgow Working Class 2April 6, 2016 at 10:07 PM

      Well spotted Anon. Andy, borstal was later.

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    7. Eat your cereal.

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  7. It's also possible TNS are converging with the other pollsters as well, this result is very similar to the last Survation poll.

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    1. Maybe, but the likelihood is that Survation are producing distorted results on the list because of the way they ask the question. Other pollsters don't generally produce that kind of divergence between the SNP vote on the two ballots.

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  8. In 2011, SNP were polling 38% on the list. Got 44%.

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    1. Yes I do have a feeling the Greens will be a little over estimated in polls.

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  9. Most likely to be promoting the line "your first vote for the SNP, what way will you cast your second vote" with the view to confuse responds into believing the "second" vote is for someone else. That said, despite the possible manipulation by TNS, this is an utterly appalling poll for the pro trident pro lords existential unionist and imperialist New Labour.

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    1. Rather crap for the Tories too; suggests the best they can do is replicate May 2015 due to more of their voters turning out.

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  10. It's very important to note that the poll was conducted between the 2nd and 22nd of March - ie before both TV debates. Any poll that follows this one is almost certain to be conducted after the debates.

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  11. Aye, I agree with all the bbc-being-as-usual-sickenly-britnat-biased posts but folks that is going to continue until we actually do something about it.

    If you truly believe in an independent Scotland do not pay the britnat bbc licence tax.

    Honestly, it doesn’t hurt to cancel the DD. And the consequences, so-called, are nothing compared to the consequences faced by Scotland’s patriots of the past.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 7, 2016 at 12:58 AM

      Patriots = last vestiges of despots, hypocrites and dictators..

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    2. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2762876/Union-flag-waving-demonstrators-make-Nazi-salute-Glasgow-victory-celebrations-Police-separate-rival-groups-tension-increases.html

      Patriots indeed...

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    3. "Patriots = last vestiges of despots, hypocrites and dictators.."

      Agreed, and your laughing stock of a former leader was certainly reaching his last vestige when he wrote a a commitment to patriotism into your party's constitution.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 7, 2016 at 7:12 PM

      And your point? There is no similar clause four or any socialist ideals associated with the Nat sis.

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    5. Subject was patriotism, not socialism. Do try to keep up, dear.

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  12. Any thoughts on what turnout might be like? Is it reasonable to expect a record high for Holyrood? You'd certainly hope so given current public levels of engagement, and the 70% achieved last year. On the other hand (and this is maybe only in my head) this election feels a lot more low key than 2011, or even 2007.

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  13. I am going to utter some heresy to the out and out SNP voters. The failure to give a roadmap to achieving Indy is now damaging them. They have got complacent on relying on opposition incompetence. The ca canny approach isn't working. They haven't even offered a map to getting more powers for Scotland and this election was a great opportunity for them to do so.

    I sniffed the same level of enthusiasm in the disastrous EU Election that resulted in UKIP getting a seat in Scotland. That one was bad because it should have been a launching pad for the later stages of the Indy campaign. -4 and -8 respectively if that isn't a cattle prod for the SNP then I don't know what is!

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    1. Hope you are wrong Iain, but sadly I have to agree.

      braco

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    2. Iain, sounds like you're saying the SNP should be aiming to push their ratings back up towards 60% by concentrating on "giving a roadmap to achieving indy" despite the fact support for indy is only 47-49%?

      How does that work exactly?

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  14. Glasgow Working Class 2April 7, 2016 at 1:33 AM

    Do not know why you Yellow Tories are debating. You are going to win. So what is on offer from you scum for the poor and wurkin class. Spell it oot now.

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    1. It's not going to matter to you. You'd rant and seethe no matter what's planned. Oh well, onwards and upwards:

      http://www.snp.org/getting_young_people_into_high_skilled_high_quality_jobs

      http://www.snp.org/tories_need_to_go_back_to_the_drawing_board_on_social_security_reform

      http://www.snp.org/our_income_tax_plans_explained

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    2. Why don't you spell out what policies the party you support are going to introduce? Oh that's right NONE as you don't support anyone you are just a pain in the arse who thinks they know everything when you are indeed a clown from the Liebour party Northern branch who are about to get destroyed for their lies Ha a!1

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  15. Nothing to add other than the headline for this article made me honk like a goose. Nice one James!

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  16. I think the result of next months election will be very similair to last Mays election.Folk know where they stand on all the policies.A bit of tactical voting around the edges might make a wee bit of difference,I suppose,but turnout will be more important.

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  17. Note that the SNP drop coincided with their announcements on the following 1)Weaker land reform bill than expected (where offshore trust transparency rejected !!) 2) Council tax proposals 3) income tax proposals
    I would suggest that playing too safe has lost them votes - they could have given a wee taste of change - embraced the offshore trust transparency (winner given the last few days news) , done some transitionary stuff over next 5 years to scrap council tax and onto maybe a land value tax over time, and for gods sake walloped the 50p tax rate in with a promise to strengthen rules to stop avoidance. Not exactly revolutionary measures but would have done something whilst showing up the limitatations of the new powers. Just tinkering doesn't cut it - whats the point in voting for that when we all know current set up is rubbish. I 'll still be SNP x 2 but they have been a bit disappointing in their ambition.

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  18. James, Another Survation Poll commissioned by Unison and released today is being greeted by the Green as though it forecasting they will have 11 seats. We had the same spin 5 years ago. The poll results show the SNP having an increase in both constituency and list compared to the last Survation poll. Dire numbers for Labour though.

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  19. The Survation poll figures:

    Constituency

    •SNP 52%
    •Labour 21%
    •Conservatives 16%
    •Liberal Democrats 6%

    List

    •SNP 44%
    •Labour 19%
    •Conservatives 16%
    •Greens 10%
    •Liberal Democrats 6%
    •Ukip 4%

    Is that a 5% increase in the SNP list vote from their last poll?

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    1. I looked at the pension poll in error - from the last full Survation down in the constituency by 2 but up by 2 in the list. Margin of error stuff.

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    2. Labour just a whisker under half of the anti Scottish vote on the constituency.Has their share finally bottomed out?

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    3. Dundee Working ClassApril 7, 2016 at 7:51 PM

      Absolutely horrendous poll for Labour. With the un-questioning, unrelenting support of almost every TV/ radio station and newspaper with very few exceptions, we could question what share of the vote they would get if treated with the same brazen contempt as the SNP and the truth over Labours corrupt gangster run asset stripping PFI companies, support for the aristocracy, house of lords and nuclear weapons of mass destruction on Scottish soil was conveyed to the people. They'd be on 1.6-2%, not 16-20%

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 8, 2016 at 12:02 AM

      DWC you are a typical middle class Yellow Tartan Tory Nat sis. Stop your pretense you have any connection with working class people.

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    5. There's no little irony here, DWC. The troll is a plastic Weegie and a plastic prole.

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  20. Are the Greens going to get one out of every ten list votes? I just don't see it happening.Theres no feeling of it on the doors anyway.

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  21. See GWC2 has changed his tone from calling SNP Nat si (read Nazi) to yellow Tory. Oh, and referring to Scots as Jocks. Who the hell in Scotland as a native Scot refers to themeselves as Jocks? Thats the kind of shite nickname I was given when working and living in England. Oi, Jock, wot you sayin'?, stop talking jockanese.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 7, 2016 at 11:55 PM

      The English let you work in their country. That is a benefit of the Union Nat si.
      Scottish soldiers have been called the Jocks for decades without any problems.You are a narrowback thick as shit Nat si. Why did you crawl over the border to work in your hated England!

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    2. Did you stay up late to come up with such an incoherent rant?

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    3. No Scott likes being insulted by being called Jock I think we shall start calling folk like u Wanker. Hopefully like Jock it will stick to u

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  22. Does the Labour Party still have branches in Dundee and if so,do they hold meetings etc?

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  23. SwagBucks is an high paying get-paid-to site.

    ReplyDelete