Monday, April 4, 2016

ORB telephone poll puts Leave just seven points behind - but what does it mean?

There does seem to be something about EU referendum polls.  Every time we need a particular type of poll to make things a little clearer, we kind of get it, but in a form that isn't actually of much use.  Here is the latest telephone poll -

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 51%
Leave 44%

In normal circumstances, a telephone poll putting Leave just seven points behind would be interpreted as a dreadful result for Remain. But this one is from ORB - who have only previously conducted one phone poll, and it stuck out like a sore thumb by putting Leave ahead. So there are a few possibilities - perhaps the last poll was a freak, and the new one can be seen as being in line with ComRes in showing a much reduced telephone lead for Remain. Or perhaps ORB have a Leave-friendly house bias, in which case this poll might indicate that Remain have bounced back over the last couple of weeks, meaning we should expect the Remain lead to return to double figures in the next ComRes and Ipsos-Mori phone polls. Or perhaps the apparent swing to Remain can be explained by a methodological tweak (it wouldn't be surprising if ORB have reviewed their phone methodology, given how unexpected the outcome of the last poll was).

To put it another way, we're none the wiser, and all we can do is wait for more information.

56 comments:

  1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 10:59 PM

    All Leave need is 50.01% and this corrupt EU is over and done with. The Jockanories will be at a loss and no where to crawl tae. The
    Nat sis I predict would not call another referendum.
    Looks like wee Nicola is doing everything she hated about the Brits. Dain deals wi China dictators. Och Aye Ra Noo and up yer kilt Jocks are being taken tae ra cleaners by the Joke Nat sis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have you ever been to Scotland? For your information no-one in Scotland EVER said och aye ra noo. It's like pretending to be from Yorkshire and putting ee ba gum lad at the end of every sentence. Also no-one in Scotland ever refers to themselves as Jocks. ESPECIALLY unionists. If you were a real Scottish Unionist you would know this.

      You also have an irrational hatred of those Scots who voted no, or, as you refer to them, those who want to stay subsidised by the English. You won't find a single anti-SNP unionist in Scotland who attacks the no voters as subsidy junkies.

      Everything about you indicates a God Save the Queen UKIPper who has never set foot in Scotland, knows nothing about us, definitely bigotted, definitely misogynistic, probably Ulster Unionist and definitely right wing. I'm guessing probably alcoholic too, your late night loss of rational thinking certainly indicates it.

      Pity the only place where you can talk to people is on here where everyone hates you.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 1:33 AM

      That was a cry for help.

      Delete
    3. Everything the plastic Weegie troll posts on here is a cry for help...

      Delete
    4. I was watching "The Rise of Evil" last night on Netflix (Begby as Hitler).

      All I can say is this - thank God we don't have that many beer halls in Scotland!

      Delete
    5. Yeah, your allies in the referendum certainly would have used that to their advantage Aldo.

      Delete
  2. Somewhere near Maryhill there is a village missing it's idiot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Somewhere near Maryhill there is a village that was glad to get rid of its idiot

      Delete
    2. As an inhabitant of the village in question, will you please stop giving him clues as to where he came from? We went to great efforts to get rid of him, and don't want him back!

      Delete
  3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 11:31 PM

    The SNP policy is to ignore issues and make flippant comments hoping it will all go away. But do keep that up Nat sis you will be knobled. Now anything sensible to say? Or jist go tae yer scratcher.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 5, 2016 at 12:34 AM

      Gordon Brown in January 2008 when he did a deal with the Chinese Dictatorship found the vegetable market chock full of delicious items to put into a stir-fry. Much healthier to eat with vegetables cooked in a wok.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 1:36 AM

      Edith Smelly, do advise, I like a mild chicken curry.

      Delete
    3. No curry for you. Only cereal.

      Delete
  4. Gwc2 is a moron do not engage with the man. He is a true troll and I you guys feed him every day. Wise up ignore him ffs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassApril 5, 2016 at 11:24 AM

      It costs the EU taxpayers well over 60 million per annum to pay MEP'S. Then there is expenses and paying their bits on the side. And for what!
      seems tae me that you are the thick as shit moron on here.Clearly you are on benefits and have an empathy with the blood suckers.

      Delete
    2. You do know the Kippers and Tories are laughing at you, not with you?

      Delete
    3. GWC2 is a parody acount.

      Delete
    4. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 5, 2016 at 1:27 PM

      Kippers for breakfast is a good start for the day. Eat plenty of fruit. Some say your food should represent your personality. For GWC2 we suggest tripe and onions cook well otherwise you'll be crying.

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 4:23 PM

      Two tottie scones, two rashers of bacon, two slices of Stornoway black puddin wie a couple of fried eggs is the way tae start the day. You middle class Tartan Tories stick tae the tripe.

      Delete
    6. No. Cereal for you.

      Delete
  5. The sample size on this poll was a mere 800. That means the margin of error is huge. Anything less than 2000 respondents in a poll is not worth considering seriously.

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    Replies
    1. That's complete and utter rubbish. Sample sizes of much less than 800 aren't unusual in US polling (we also see them occasionally here), and the margin of error is a bit higher, but it isn't "huge". What matters is whether the methodology is sound.

      Delete
  6. James, are you going to do an article on the BBC Ipsos-Mori poll? The figures that David Halliday tweeted may not be to the BBC's liking.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Looks like the sort of polls we were getting 3-4 months ahead of the indyref - the separation option not miles behind but behind enough to pretty much guarantee defeat, barring a huge event.

    When Brexit is ultimately taken off the table, what will the sep excuse be then? You got your devolution deal, you're about to keep Europe. What's the next point of agitation? Trident? The world cup qualifiers? The state of the back closes in Govanhill? :0)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unlike you, Aldo, I don't pretend to know the future with certainty. But even the most conservative estimate suggests that there is a significant chance of Brexit (Elections Etc produced a probability of well over 10%, based on both the current polls and past precedents of swings over the course of comparable referendum campaigns), so I'd be intrigued to know what your own reaction will be if you've got this one - as you've got so many others - wrong?

      Delete
    2. I called the other referenda accurately. It was clear that Unionism would win in Scotland - the only question being how big the victory margin would be.

      And I see a similar situation playing out here. In the event of a close race, the don't knows will save the day (and the race isn't even that close!).

      But let's just see what happens!

      Delete
    3. No, Aldo, you didn't "call the referendum correctly". What you do is predict that the unionists will win everything, or failing that, that every defeat for unionists is in fact a victory in cunning disguise.

      Delete
    4. Trident and House of Lords abolition.

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  8. It's kind of funny, but yoons have to win every referendum and we separatists have to win only once. Tic, tock, for the union.
    Guess what independence is inevitable, and there is nothing that the yoons can do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 8:11 PM

      Aye but if you screw the Scottish economy which you Nat sis are likely to do then there will be another call for a referendum.
      If you think you can compete with England for investment without driving wages to poverty levels then your heids are up yer erse.

      Delete
    2. The angrier you get, the funnier it is...

      Delete
  9. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 8:06 PM

    The Nat sis sign mega deal with notoriously corrupt Chinese mob.
    Nat sis say we didnae know at the time. Nat si followers follow blindly uncomplaining.
    Will Wee Nicola resign!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11943880/China-to-invest-30bn-in-UK-plc-how-the-deals-break-down.html

      Delete
  10. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/24/britains-deals-with-china-billions-what-do-they-mean

    ReplyDelete
  11. Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 9:14 PM

      Tock tick to the fall of the Nat sis. It will come and you can treat the Scots as fools for a limited time while you line your pockets with taxpayers money and perhaps brown envelopes. You can shout loud and disguise your corruption but like Labour and Tory your day will come. Time tae get out of the EU as a starter. Then one British Parliament with a small elected second chamber.

      Delete
    2. You're hilarious. The angrier you get, the funnier it is.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working ClassApril 5, 2016 at 10:02 PM

      You do wonder at the cheek of Labour stooges who are totally blind to the Labour Cabinet Minister who are now on Boards of Arms Companies or Investment Companies. Quite a few now millionaires. We need no lectures from Labour thank you.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 10:08 PM

      Anon you tosspot I do not get angry just amused by Nat sis. Now do change tact instead of your well worn constant shite. Try politics. And maybe we should know how many Nat sis have shares in arms companies!

      Delete
    5. If GWC2 had a 100000% increase in his intelligence that would still make him politically thick. I await his insults.

      Delete
    6. The troll once again tried to drag the SNP into the sewer by associating it with Britnat gun pimping. The troll should realise that there are people being paid to dig dirt on the SNP. Despite their efforts, the SNP continue to poll up to 60%. The troll's shrieking is no more effective than the mainstream media's.

      Delete
  12. Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 10:21 PM

      Tock tick.

      Delete
    2. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 5, 2016 at 11:31 PM

      If your clock is getting out of time as your does, why not enjoy a retune and see where you are out of sync with the rest of the country.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 6, 2016 at 12:10 AM

      Smelly, your recipies are out of sync and you talk shite. Try something else Nat si in whatever country you claim to represent.

      Delete
    4. Flushing all your principles to bag carry for Kippers and Tories out of hatred for the SNP must hurt. It would explain your constant enraged rants.

      Delete
  13. Glasgow Working Class 2April 6, 2016 at 12:25 AM

    James, do you think jock nat sis to the best of your knowledge are involved in anti semitism and the overthrow of Israel by islamic fascists. Aye

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    Replies
    1. Classic projection...

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    2. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn_uk_57011e18e4b069ef5c00629d

      This is what the troll is projecting about. Rather than do his bit to deal with this within Labour, the troll tries to smear the SNP. It's classic psychological projection.

      Delete
    3. When you have nothing to say, just hurl abuse. Please give facts not accusations with all quotable resources in each post. If you did that then we won't hear a word from you. Have a lovely day.

      Delete
  14. The foostie old union reeks o pish.

    ReplyDelete
  15. James, please make it GW2's day by posting an article on the latest Holyrood poll. His face will then turn milk sour. :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 73% Remain / 27% Leave (ex DK) on an 84% potential turnout too.

      That's a 'Remain' landslide of epic proportions, ensuring Scotland's place in the EU is not threatened by a Brexit.

      Delete