Sunday, April 3, 2016

Ochone! Opinium's overnight offering is awfully ominous for pro-Europeans, as the Leave campaign opens up a four-point lead

Opinium have only conducted one previous voting intention poll over the course of the EU referendum campaign, and it showed a razor-thin Leave lead, so their new poll showing a four-point Leave advantage doesn't particularly indicate that anything dramatic has happened.  But assuming there haven't been any methodological changes, it further strengthens the evidence that Remain haven't made progress of any significance in the wake of the Brussels attacks.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 39% (-1)
Leave 43% (+2)

The poll was commissioned by the Observer, who focus on the very familiar pattern of younger respondents backing Remain but being much less likely than their Leave-leaning seniors to actually cast their vote.  Irritatingly, though, we're not told whether the poll is filtered/weighted by turnout - if it is, the disadvantage for Remain is already factored into the headline figures.  If not, the poll could be implying that Leave are really ahead by a fair bit more than four points.  We'll presumably find out one way or the other when the datasets emerge.

Assuming that differential turnout will on balance work in Leave's favour (which it probably will, although ComRes take the opposite view), it's worth pointing out that both polling evidence and past precedent suggests that we're heading for a comparatively low poll in June.  Turnout in the 1975 Common Market referendum was around 10 points lower than the norm for general elections of the period, so if history repeats itself we might be looking at a figure in the mid-50s, leaving plenty of scope for the greater motivation of Leave supporters to swing the balance.  That said, the result in 1975 was already a foregone conclusion by the time referendum day came around.  If the polling this time remains tight and/or contradictory, that in itself could galvanise Remain sympathisers into turning out (in much the same way that No voters were galvanised in the closing stages of the indyref campaign).

I'm going to hold off from updating the Poll of Polls, because there's been a flurry of half-breed polls published recently, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to decide which polls should be classified as 'proper' voting intention polls.  Hopefully the mists will clear shortly - but basically, any average of online polls would show a more or less deadlocked race, while telephone polls are for the most part continuing to show Remain ahead, but by a narrower margin than we've been used to.

UPDATE : The Opinium datasets have now been released, and as Roger Mexico points out in the comments section below, not only is there no turnout filter, but respondents who are not even eligible to vote have been eccentrically left in the headline figures.  Taking the elementary step of removing those people isn't quite enough to change the rounded voting intention result, but the unrounded numbers work out as -

Remain 38.7%
Leave 43.1%

As usual, the Scottish subsample is far more Remain-friendly : Remain 53%, Leave 30%.

70 comments:

  1. Opinium UK-wide party leader NET satisfaction in order:

    -11% Nicola Sturgeon (+29% in Scotland)
    -19% David Cameron
    -23% Jeremy Corbyn
    -24% Nigel Farage
    -28% Tim Farron

    #EnglishNatSis

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  2. Vote Remain because England will vote Leave.

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  3. Irritatingly, though, we're not told whether the poll is filtered/weighted by turnout - if it is, the disadvantage for Remain is already factored into the headline figures.

    Not only is it not filtered by turnout, but Opinium's headline figures even include those panelists who say they are not eligible to vote in it! (presumably EU nationals). If you look at the tables here, among those who say they definitely would vote (10/10) Leave has 49%, Remain 41%, DK 10%.

    But what filter you put on will make a difference. Those saying 7-9/10 are more pro-EU for example, including them lessens that gap quite a bit.

    Opinium also asked a squeeze question to the undecided who remain high in numbers, even among those certain to vote. This split 45% Remain, 28% Leave, which would make things closer again.

    You need to be careful about movement from last time because the last Opinium survey was done 9-12 Feb, which was before the negotiations were finalised. In addition the question was asked at the end of the survey after a number of other related ones.

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    1. Thanks you Roger for the link to the tables. Quite interesting to see all the party leaders ratings.

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    2. You do need to be careful about leadership questions, because different pollsters use different questions to assess it and the wording can make a big difference.

      For example Opinium ask what people what they think about "The way [X] is handling his/her job as [Prime Minister/Leader of the [Y] Party]" with the results shown above. MORI ask "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way [X] is doing his job as [Prime Minister/leader of the [Y] Party]?" (only Opinium ask about Sturgeon) which produced very different figures, even though it might not look like a big change in wording.

      Sturgeon's figures are interesting because they are very heavily influenced by Party support across GB, not just in Scotland. Labour (+18) and Lib Dems (+12) approve as obviously do SNP (+98 !), but Conservatives (-41) and UKIP (-55) are violently opposed (There's also an interesting gender gap - Men -23, Women +0) I suspect this shows the effectiveness of the anti-SNP/Scot campaigning in England by Tories and the media last year.

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    3. Yes, based on this poll I would expect the SNP to do extremely badly in the English local elections this year.

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  4. It might have more to do with a Press rag stirring the proverbial for Cameron and Osborne than any genuine attempt to get an angle on actual voting intentions..

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  5. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 6:58 PM

    Great news indeed. Gettin oot would be like riddin oorselves of the Italian Mafia. And what would all those redundant MEP'S do, get a job mibbie.

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    1. Ach, you YoonYoonSis. Doesn't it get tiring hating the Germans?

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    2. What do you think of Labour and Lib voters giving the thumbs up to Sturgeon UK-wide. Ingish 'Nat Sis' that hate themselves?

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 8:26 PM

      James, who hates the Germans?

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    4. GW2 does hate the Germans but loves Adolph and other Nazi's. He seems to have an unhealthy fixation about them.

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    5. GWC2 hates the English because they rate Nicola Sturgeon higher than all the other party leaders. For him they are 'Nat sis'.

      That's what I understand anyway.

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    6. I suspect the thing he hates the most is himself.

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    7. Yep. Gotta hurt to realise that you've sold all your principles to the Tories because SNPBad.

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  6. James
    As stated previously, I'm a senior citizen and a conservative supporter so that's two strikes against me from an SNP point of view.
    However like yourself and the overwhelming number of fair minded Independence suppoters I detest my fellow Scots being classified as Nazis.I had several uncles who served in the Royal Navy and Army during the war and they would have been horrified that ordinary working people would think of them as Nazis.

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    1. I may differ from you politically Jimmy but amen to that.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 8:46 PM

      How different politically are you?

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    3. I am not a Conservative supporter.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 9:50 PM

      I assume you must be a Tartan Tory Nat si Conservative!

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    5. I'm not a member of any party but I want Scottish Independence. Politically I'm closest to the Scottish Greens. What would be your take on them be - Mussolini's Fascisti perhaps?

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    6. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 11:11 PM

      If you are a green then so be it. Was Mussolini a green?

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    7. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 11:01 AM

      Always eat your greens. Relax by making delicious fishcakes and with a fresh green salad you cannot go wrong. Plenty of recipes on the internet that you can choose from.

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  7. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 8:43 PM

    I do not get what you Nat sis are thinking at all. If we vote to leave the EU then you have said you will have another Scottish independence referendum. So why not vote to leave the EU?
    Are you scared shoite the EU will not subsidise you like the English taxpayer does. Make up your fn minds who you are going tae crawl to.

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    Replies
    1. Because we have to vote In whilst England votes Out to get a referendum, you unfathomably stupid dunderheid.

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  8. if brexit happens then indyref2 will be announced immediatly. polls indicate that about half the no voters want to stay in the eu. with indy support at 50%, the issue of the eu will rip the unionist support in scotland in two. regarless of the respective size of the 2 pieces left, an independent scotland will happen very quickly. voting to stay in the eu isnt a permanent situation. voting to leave the UK will be.
    enjoy gwc2,

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 9:57 PM

      I look forward to that very much. We leave the EU the Jockanories vote for independence again not knowing if they get an EU meal ticket. They will vote for the English meal ticket. The EU will not interfere in a British referendum and will not give any guarantees to Scottish Nat sis.

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    2. You're more Nazi obsessed than the History Channel. Grow up.

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    3. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 11:04 AM

      Don't become obsessed with the Nazi's GWC2, instead why not bake a lovely Black Forest Gateaux, mouthwatering and tasty. Glass of German wine to accompany although only have one glass.

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    4. Schmeckt gut, oder? ;-)

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    5. Enid Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 8:19 PM

      Ja.

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  9. I'm afraid James,that our resident second class citizen from Glasgow reminds me of something very unpleasant I've had to scrape off my shoe on a hot Summer day

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 10:41 PM

      So you have lost the argument and have intentionally stood on your own shoite. Seems you Nat sis have made this a consistant habit.

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    2. On the subject of habits, your habit of calling people Nazis is tiresome. And no, you're not getting to hide behind the semantics of spelling.

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    3. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 2:01 PM

      GWC2 you should consider bile beans, they will keep you regular and give you the slim physique you have always craved. Don't spill them on your shoes as they can stain.

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  10. Glesgow Working Class 3April 3, 2016 at 11:37 PM

    Th' proaper meanin ae 'natsis' is "The textural composition of most diarrhea poops". Meaning GW2 talks a load ae shite.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 3, 2016 at 11:54 PM

      You Nat sis are just piling up yer shoite oan yerself. Ever tried original thought. Try reading the Ragged Troosered Philanthropist and educate yer self's. Fookin narrowback idiot planks a wud.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 3April 3, 2016 at 11:56 PM

      lol

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 12:25 AM

      None of the Loyal Orange Lodge abbreviation. Be serious!

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 3April 4, 2016 at 10:09 AM

      lol

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    5. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 11:13 AM

      GWC2 too much orange can upset your system with acid. Instead why not bake some lovely delicious fruit soda scones to neutralise any acid in your system. Spread some low fat spread and reduced sugar jam.

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    6. Fucksake, there's at least three of them.

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  11. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 1:09 AM

    Seems tae me you Nat sis are just run of the Mill losers by responding tae me. You lot of anti wurkin class traitors are destined for the dustbin of history.
    And you will be remembered as idiots who folowed eck and the sturge.

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    1. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 1:48 PM

      You should use ground pepper with an inexpensive pepper mill that you can obtain at most supermarkets or £1 shops. Stewing Beef casserole with fresh pepper, delicious and nourishing.

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    2. "anti-wurkin class traitors...the dustbin of history"

      This guy would have gulags all over the place if he ever got any real power. He'd be sitting up all night combing Twitter with Blair McDougall and putting wee pen-strokes through names.

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  12. The troll's rants get more shrill and enraged with every passing day. The troll has lost the argument time and again, simply by coming on here to spit bile long into the night.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 5:08 PM

      What argument? We won the referendum.

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    2. When Scotland is a prosperous and independent country, you'll still be saying : "But we won the referendum! Well, you know, we won THAT referendum."

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 6:43 PM

      And when will that be James? And of course the Nat sis being the expert predictors will name a date when this prosperity will arrive. The Scottish wurkin class will rise like a Felix fae the Ashes to prosperity guaranteed by you Nat sis. And when will be given notification what our currency will be?

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    4. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 6:52 PM

      You know you can order Felix for your cat via the internet and pay in what currency you want and have goods sent worldwide.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 7:30 PM

      Edith Smelly, I did not know that and I do not have a cat. Thanks.

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    6. You're such a child...

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  13. Please help

    http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/linlithgow-labour-holyrood-campaign-2016

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  14. Jimmy said:
    "As stated previously, I'm a senior citizen and a conservative supporter so that's two strikes against me from an SNP point of view.
    However like yourself and the overwhelming number of fair minded Independence suppoters I detest my fellow Scots being classified as Nazis.I had several uncles who served in the Royal Navy and Army during the war and they would have been horrified that ordinary working people would think of them as Nazis."

    Yep Jimmy, most people (Even Tories) are not happy reading people who have never picked a gun up in their pathetic lives, accuse people in Scotland of being Nazis, just because they want their own country to be independent.

    This is why James lets him continue to post on here, as it lets people like yourself see who is on your side and hopefully causes fair minded people like yourself reconsider their politics.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 6:50 PM

      Hey Paddie do you like talking to yourself?

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    2. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanApril 4, 2016 at 6:56 PM

      Delicious rice dishes are only minutes away, served with chicken they give you a nutritious meal.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 4, 2016 at 7:33 PM

      Edith Smelly, I do like rice dishes. Thanks.

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    4. You just can't help yourself...

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  15. GWC is a one man SNP vote winner.
    I continuously point out his quotes and comments to swithering No voters.
    "This is an example of Hard Core Unionism. Think about it."
    And they do.

    Keep it up GWC; your hatred is a tonic.

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    1. I fully agree with this statement.

      His hatred makes me feel carefree and happy. As long as Unionists like that exist, independence is a shoe-in.

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  16. To the tune of Hamilton bohannon let's start to dance.

    Shake a boom boom
    Shake a bang bang
    Shake a boom boom tang tang orangey drum

    yo bang that beat to the sound of the Orange drum.

    All day all night
    Don't stop, don't stop, don't block the nat

    Shake a boom boom
    Shake a tang tang

    Hey now this ain't a question of how godwin you can go
    But actually how natsi you can go

    So here's to your health, now express yourself
    Glasgow working class make it orangey.


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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 12:16 AM

      What an expected comment from an idiot Nat si. Just confirming. Now anything to say about politics? Idiot Nat si.

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    2. More sub-Spanneresque bile and rage. Keep it up, dearie. Your impotent fury is comedy gold...

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 4:35 PM

      Not fury just fun you bigot.

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    4. Oh, it is indeed fury.

      We didn't supine ourselves to the Union and are emerging stronger than ever after the referendum.

      That is what makes you furious. That and the Grim Reaper going about his busy work thinning out the No vote every winter.

      Tick-tock.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2April 5, 2016 at 10:50 PM

      Such desperation Anon the Grim Reeper will get you and Scotland will still be British. You will die very sad. Och Aye. Hiv a few wee hauwfs before ye go.

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    6. All you have is abuse. No cogent argument, just ranting. That won't save your beloved Union because we've heard it all before and we're tired of it.

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    7. Oh, I'm not desperate. I'm 25 and prepared to put my feet up for a few years and watch the Union unravel all by itself.

      People like you are an absolute asset to the cause of independence. Keep up the good work and y'know, rage, rage against the dying of the light.



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