Tuesday, April 12, 2016

No, RISE are not "on 4% in Glasgow"

I was assailed on Twitter today by Jonathan Rimmer, who I gather writes for Common Space and various other publications.  His profile doesn't identify him as a RISE member, but it's pretty obvious he must be a dedicated supporter at the very least.  Basically he was incredulous when I made an observation that I've already made umpteen times over the last few months, ie. that RISE are heading for zero list seats, but that it's unclear whether Solidarity will win zero or one, because we know from past elections that Tommy Sheridan has a small concentration of support in Glasgow that national polls may not be able to pick up.  In an attempt to rebut this point, Jonathan made a number of wild assertions - that RISE are on 4% of the vote in Glasgow, that several polls have shown RISE ahead of Solidarity in "every single region", and that "every" poll that has mentioned RISE has had them ahead of Solidarity.  (The latter point, even if true, wouldn't of course be strictly relevant, because it would be perfectly possible for Solidarity to nick a seat in Glasgow while finishing behind RISE in the national popular vote.)  When I asked him for more details, he became strangely evasive, and just vaguely said that he'd seen the polls on Common Space.  I pressed him further to supply some evidence, and at that point he started exhibiting all the classic signs that he'd probably been bluffing.  "Can't do it, buddy, I'm on the phone!  No, can't do it after I get off the phone either, much too busy.  Do you think I carry polls around with me in my pocket or something?  Why, yes, of course the fact that I'm tweeting right now means that I've got internet access, but not of sufficient quality to access opinion polls.  Don't be ridiculous."

I'll just put him out of his misery and explain quickly why his claims are complete rubbish.  There are only five active pollsters in this campaign, so let's go through them one by one...

YouGov : As you may have seen from the update on the previous post, YouGov revised a mistake in today's datasets - it turns out that for the first time, they asked respondents about RISE by name.  On the constituency vote, both RISE and Solidarity are on zero.  On the list vote, RISE are on 1% and Solidarity mysteriously weren't offered as an option.  YouGov don't provide geographical breakdowns, so can't help with the claims about RISE being on 4% in Glasgow, or ahead of Solidarity in "every single region".

Ipsos-Mori : They don't provide a breakdown by electoral region either, but their most recent poll in February more or less disproves the claim that every poll that mentions RISE has put them ahead of Solidarity.  On the constituency vote, Solidarity were on 0.3%, and RISE were on just 0.1%.  Perhaps Jonathan can claim a very technical get-out clause here, because on the list vote the position was reversed (RISE were on 0.3%, Solidarity were on 0.1%).  But that's pushing it a bit - essentially both parties were absolutely nowhere.  This was the poll I referred to a number of times in the debate I had with Tommy Sheridan a few weeks ago.

TNS : One of only two firms that provide a breakdown by region - but they don't mention RISE by name.  Nevertheless, this seems to be the poll that Jonathan is getting the "4% in Glasgow" figure from - he's using the SSP as a proxy, and the number comes from a tiny, unreliable regional subsample of just 39 people.  A mere TWO respondents in Glasgow said they were voting SSP - and that's what's being prayed in aid as evidence of RISE's dominance over Solidarity in the city!  The SSP were ahead of Solidarity in only five of the eight regions - in the other three, both parties were tied on a big fat zero.

Survation : The other firm that provides a breakdown by region - but they don't allow respondents to express a preference for RISE, the SSP or Solidarity.  So nothing to see there.

Panelbase : The most recent Panelbase poll in January did mention RISE by name and gave them just 1%, but didn't mention Solidarity.  No breakdown by region was provided.

As you can see, none of Jonathan's claims stand up to any scrutiny.  It's untrue that every poll mentioning RISE has put them ahead of Solidarity, because Ipsos-Mori failed to do so on one of the two ballots in February.  It's untrue that several polls have put RISE ahead of Solidarity in "every single region", because the only two pollsters that provide breakdowns by electoral regions haven't mentioned RISE by name (and one of the two hasn't even offered the SSP as an option).  And even if you rely on tiny subsamples, it's not strictly true that RISE are on 4% in Glasgow, because that poll didn't mention them by name - but in any case that 4% was made up of a truly laughable TWO people.

65 comments:

  1. So,does that put them ahead of the anarchists?

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 13, 2016 at 12:38 AM

      Big Tam Sheridan the Socialist! Is giving the Tartan Tories his first vote and the left his second.
      Kind of like the PF for Judea voting for Judean PF while the Romans stand by pissin themselves laughing.

      Delete
    2. Shush; the grown ups are talking. Go back to your crayons, and try not to leave tooth marks in them this time.

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  2. As soon as he called you "Buddy" I knew he hadn't got any info!

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  3. I wonder if their incessant propaganda on Bella Caledonia will cease when they end up with exactly zero MSPs on May 6th.

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    1. There's a possibility they'll start blaming the electorate(or merely SNP voters).

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  4. Unionists would love to see RISE and Greens taking seats away from the SNP.

    First things first: Independence.

    SNP x 2

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  5. I see our so called Pro-Independence Newspaper is bigging up the Greens.

    OPIPs away!

    SNP X 2 and for In the EU.

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    1. I suppose the Greens are classed as a pro-Independence party and are entitled to as much coverage as anyone,the constant witterings of Cat Boyd being a case in point. Having said that,I wouldn't touch any party that has the odious Ross Greer as a candidate with the proverbial barge pole

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  6. rise does at least have activists, the unionists rope their candidates together then drive them round scotland, picturing them in front of famous landmarks, using narrow angled cameras, in an effort to convince people that hoards of the great unwashed flock to them like flies to shite.

    all in all, rise are going somewhere, perhaps not in this election. whereas the unionists are falling of cliffs like lemmings

    sc

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 13, 2016 at 9:45 PM

      It is your luck the Unionists are from different parties however we are still here knob and do not forget it.
      Looks like Labour are prepared to tax the rich you yellow Tory shithead.

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    2. Shush; the grown ups are talking. Go back to your crayons, and try not to leave tooth marks in them this time.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 13, 2016 at 10:28 PM

      Still on the watchkeeper duty roster. Old Churchill had you Nat sis summed up.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 13, 2016 at 11:48 PM

      Hey Anon looks like the voters are turning fae the EU. You will need the Barnet Formula for decades now. Nae dinner ticket fae the EU and selling out Scotland. Have a Cigar!

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    5. Shush; the grown ups are talking. Go back to your crayons, and try not to leave tooth marks in them this time

      Delete
  7. Going by the polls, if RISE and Solidarity get nowhere at this election, you would think there would be some serious thinking to do. As things stand, all they will achieve is getting a few more unionist MP's elected.

    I don't understand the assumption that SNP supporters somehow owe them tactical votes. From an SNP point of view, being held to ransom from a party with a hard left agenda would be the worst thing that could happen to the cause of independence. The unionist parties would have a field day.

    Is it so hard to see that under limited devolution, the SNP has no choice but to practice sensible centre-left policies to take the majority of the population with them? Their 'radical' policy is independence itself and the opportunities that a new environment and a full powered parliament will bring.

    The only way I could see the possibility of major tactical voting in future is to bring back the idea of a pure 'Independence Party', with no other agenda. Tommy Sheridan made a valid point on his recent STV interview, saying he supports the SNP in the constituencies - not for socialism, but as the most effective path to independence. Where there would be far more potential for left wing politics afterwards.

    Putting the cart before the horse is the fatal flaw for the parties of the hard left at this time. If they were smarter they would use SNP support as a means to an end.

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    1. I'm not sure how much leverage a small RISE contingent would have even if the SNP were to fall a few short of a majority. It's difficult to imagine the situation in which they could deny the SNP confidence and supply. Bringing about the collapse of a pro-indy government would be disastrous for them. In many ways, it'd be a position similar to that in which the SNP would have found itself in Westminster if Miliband hadn't proven such a miserable failure.

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  8. Glasgow Working Class 2April 13, 2016 at 11:39 PM

    Sheridans plan is clearly for independence where he hopes the hard left will flourish and his version of socialism will prevail. So we can import tobacco from Cuba and make Scottish cigars and do trade deals with N Korea. Tommy the dear leader has to spell out his parties economic programme for Scotland in a post independent Scotland.

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    1. Shush; the grown ups are talking. Go back to your crayons, and try not to leave tooth marks in them this time

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  9. I think I've decided to vote for Sheridan. The greens are full of pretentious bores (bar Harvie), I don't like the way Rise have gone about this election..more about electioneering than policy..real shame. It's between SNP and Sheridan. Head says SNP heart says Solidarity. I'm going with my heart for a change. Understand the numbers but for first time ever don't feel entirely comfortable snp 1 and 2. I'm a total contrary!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 14, 2016 at 1:22 AM

      Well your head and brain is confused so try the heart which just pumps blood. Aye daft Nat si.

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    2. Shush; the grown ups are talking. Go back to your crayons, and try not to leave tooth marks in them this time

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    3. Pretentious bores. That could be the Fibrils, Tories and Corbynites.

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  10. (a bit ashamed to admit it but I actually stopped reading the comments coz of the filthy mutterings of that unbalanced individual who we all know so I won't even dignify by naming. Anyway, my eyes have now got the hang of skipping over his comments without taking in a single word. Yay! I can read the comments again!)
    As for RISE-without-trace...they've tried to equate themselves with Podemos but the analogy doesn't work because Spain lacks any equivalent of the SNP, a popular, broadbased party that is perceived as, and to a limited degree actually is, anti-establishment. Yeah I've heard the argument that the SNP is the establishment but that's true only in a very narrow sense: as long as the UK government controls the key economic levers, it will remain the case that the SNP is anti-establishment in a crucial sense. The SNP is soaring, for all its flaws. For now there just isn't room for a party like RISE to make much progress. Plus the Greens take much of the votes of those looking for a radical alternative. A post-indy Scotland might offer RISE a much kinder political landscape, however.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 14, 2016 at 5:22 PM

      You did manage to get something right. The Nat sis are the establishment and in Scotland do we do not need another establishment and moreso another Tory mob in disguise as the SNP.
      The Nat sis like the Tories want the old order to remain. No real land reform, no nationalisation and making sure the rich get wealthier by not taxing them. Fn scum.

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    2. You're just a gift that keeps on giving, Crayola.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 14, 2016 at 8:24 PM

      Go away silly Nat si person. Subsidy junkie.

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    4. Aw, someone's cranky. Up past your bedtime?

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    5. Doesn't "Crayola" suggest opposable thumbs?

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  11. [UK] Westminster voting intention:
    LAB: 34% (-)
    CON: 31% (-2)
    UKIP: 17% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+2)
    (via YouGov)
    10:52 PM - 13 Apr 2016


    LOL

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    1. Most of those UKIP voters are Tories in disguise so current polls don't mean much. Under a FPTP system, UKIP is a wasted vote. So another UK general election tomorrow would likely see Scotland inflicted with another Tory government we don't vote for. Under Boris or George or whoever.

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    2. Possibly. I just think it's funny.

      However, watch the EU ref rip the Tories apart. They can barely contain their hatred for each other over the issue and things are just getting started.

      So we have a bitterly divided Tory party, a bitterly divided Labour party, a fucked Lib Dems and an ugly UKIP party... UK increasingly ungovernable.

      Best just go for indy and let the rUK sort its own house out.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 14, 2016 at 9:00 PM

      Anon, unlike the Nat sis we all know most UKIP are Tories as you Nat sis are.

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    4. Comedy gold from our squatting red Tory troll. Lay off the crayons, laddie.

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  12. Glasgow Working Class 2April 14, 2016 at 9:48 PM

    Comedy gold fae the workin class traitor muppet who wants Scotland tae crawl tae the EU for subsidies. We can get subsidies fae oor English neighbour withoot crawling as they are used tae us and hard done tae stories. Why spoil a good thing.

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    1. How about getting off your knees ?

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 14, 2016 at 11:52 PM

      We Unionists do not crawl tae anybody unlike you Nat sis that want to kneel tae the EU while taking benefits fae the English taxpayer. You Jokes hiv nae shame.

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    3. Are you upset because you missed Bob the Builder?

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  13. GWC2: Inarticulate class warrior for Anglo-BritNat GCHQ when "Aldo" is having a day off.

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    1. Yep, he's our hostile neighbourhood crayonista.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 11:17 PM

      Hey old muppet what happened to all that Celtic Tiger and that Norway Iceland rhetoric fae Kim Jung Eck who said they were economic examples Scotland should follow. Awfy quiet now is the Great Leader. Got your crayons oot old chap. Maybe Panama and Bermuda next from the Nat si idiots! Aye.

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    3. Are you upset because you missed Bob the Builder?

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  14. Whatever the reason, GWC2 has succeeded in derailing what used to be very interesting and consistently well considered discussions on all things political below the line.
    Can't remember the last heated and well argued extended discussion on here between the genuinely interested. GWC2 and the like's 'freedom of expression' has certainly limited my own interest in the kind of debate now commonly found below the line on SGPoP (and therefore my own willingness to engage in discussion and exchange of views on the site).
    I think it's a real shame that such a resource has been lost to the Independence debate and I would like to urge James to reassess the direction that BTL 'debate' has slowly and continually been driven (and to what purpose). Just my own opinion.

    braco

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  15. Braco, I hear what you are saying, and sympathise completely, but I also see where James is coming from. Perhaps those of use whose tongues aren't coloured from eating crayons could make a pact to flatly ignore any comments from the usual suspects (with the exception of the odd crayon reference)?

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 11:17 AM

      Strange that I have not read anything interesting from the various Anons just the usual promotion of the Nat si Tartan Tories.
      And what will the Jock currency be when Britain leaves the EU? Who will you crawl tae, the EU or the UK?

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    2. Shush; the grown ups are talking. Go back to your crayons, and try not to leave tooth marks in them this time

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    3. Anon, unfortunately think it's become structural rot. 'Nat sis' is sadly defining the threads. An infantile mood is being set. Sad considering some of the well informed, passionate and extended political discussions that SGPoP has been host to in the fairly recent past...

      braco

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  16. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 10:54 AM

    Has empress Nicola been dain dodgy deals wie the Chinese or was she and her delegation incompetant and out of their depth!

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    1. You're just a gift that keeps on giving, Crayola.

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  17. postal vote arrived
    snp1greens2
    fife&mid
    ram it kelly
    schrodingers cat

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    1. I hope for your own sake you didn't write "2" next to the Greens, because if you did your list vote may not count. AMS isn't a preferential voting system.

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  18. I've given up on the BTL recently. Just no point in even attempting a discussion anymore with such trolls stinking the place out. Shame.

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  19. The blog owner needs an extinguisher for the flamebaiters on this site.

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  20. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 6:54 PM

    You need to be extinguished Nat si. It is the various Anons came that should come clean and identify themselves.

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    1. You're just a gift that keeps on giving, Crayola.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 7:31 PM

      It is nice to be charitable. Labour 1, Rise 2.Yellow and Blue Tories Nil.

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    3. Comedy gold from our squatting red Tory troll. Lay off the crayons, laddie.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 8:14 PM

      David alt muppet dae ye get yer crayons and colouring in book fae Wetherspoons family area?

      Delete
    5. Shush; the grown ups are talking. Go back to your crayons, and try not to leave tooth marks in them this time

      Delete
  21. What I want to see is the RISE reaction if they fail to win a single seat on 5th of May. What form will the blame game take? You can bet your bottom dollar they won't be blaming each other. It will likely be the "stupid" electorate for not giving them enough second votes. Having seen their performance on Bella over the last couple of months.It will surprise me if anyone but their die-hard supporters vote for them at all.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 16, 2016 at 1:07 AM

      This version of Anon seems to be anti socialist but what else can you expect from a Tartan Yellow Tory.

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    2. If you've run out of crayons, you could always eat your cereal.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 16, 2016 at 12:27 PM

      I am sure the cereal will come in handy at the Scottish food banks. The rich getting richer and food banks increasing under the Na si Tartan Tories.

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    4. Comedy gold from our squatting red Tory troll. Lay off the crayons, laddie.

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