Sunday, April 17, 2016

"Winning here!" : Why Political Betting ramped up the tension over Clegg's prospects

A guest post by an anonymous contributor

News has reached Scot Goes Pop that raises troubling new questions over what has been going on behind the scenes at the Political Betting website. Allegations have been made that the editorial team led by Mike Smithson have steered their readers towards bad value bets with bookmakers - and it now appears that one of those betting firms has handsomely compensated Mr Smithson for his "advice".


On January 26th 2015, deputy editor "The Screaming Eagles" posted "Interesting market, my money is on Clegg and Salmond" in regard to this betting heat -

Which of Cameron/Miliband/Clegg/Farage/Salmond will achieve the lowest percentage vote share in their seats in the general election?

Nick Clegg 4/6
Nigel Farage 11/10
Ed Miliband 25/1
David Cameron 40/1
Alex Salmond 50/1

The idiocy of this "tip" was apparent to any half-clued-up gambler, as several immediately pointed out; Farage was a much bigger price to win, and was doing worse in opinion polls in Thanet South than was Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, and so the then Lib Dem leader was obviously a "false favourite" in the market. Farage was the shrewd bet at 11/10 (and as it turned out was the only leader to fail to win his seat, as well as recording the lowest share of the vote, therefore "winning" this bet). 

A couple of people offered The Screaming Eagles much bigger odds than 4/6 on Clegg as a private bet, but despite claiming it was "a good bet" and that he had backed it at 4/6, he declined to follow up at EVEN money.

Why was the deputy editor of a betting site giving such obviously poor advice? Why was he claiming to have had such a bet but refusing bigger odds? Only a blind man could fail to see that something was up...

...because something WAS up.

By chance, a PB poster's flatmate was a trader at the betting company concerned, and so, over a pint, he casually enquired into how the Politics markets were going, and specifically, how much money they had seen for Clegg at 4/6?

"Not a penny" was the response.

Strange, the PB deputy editor had claimed his money was on at this price. Anyway, more to the point, surely Farage was the value. Which joker at his company put Clegg in at 4/6?

"Oh the bloke who is advising us on the markets for the GE is a bit of a political shrewdie apparently, we are paying him a fortune. A fellow called Mike Smithson."

Mike Smithson of Political Betting? Surely not???

Surely "OGH" wouldn't be making markets for a huge sportsbook, and getting his deputy to advise backing the "false favourite" on his site? Wouldn't that rip the integrity of any betting advice on "PB" to shreds? How would it be, for example, if a suspicion lingered in the air that Scot Goes Pop's positive views on the likelihood of Scottish independence were not actually the true opinion of the author, but a ruse to attract business for his paymasters?

When called out on his claim to have taken the 4/6 on Clegg, The Screaming Eagles panicked, threatened to report the trader (whose name he didn't know) to the betting authorities (even though he had done nothing wrong), frantically deleted posts and finally banned those who queried the matter from the site, with full backing from Smithson to the amazement of other regular thread writers and site staff who were puzzled by the Stasi-like moderation.

How can a website that employs these tactics be trusted to give impartial advice? Is Political Betting nothing more than a front for Mike Smithson's more lucrative activities? There are shrewd betting contributions from a couple of leader writers but, in light of these revelations, how can anyone know for sure how to distinguish the signals from the noise?

25 comments:

  1. In checking Smithson's Twitter account he is clearly not bothering with Holyrood this time compared to 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Smithson is a serial liar. He has behaved disgracefully towards myself and many other decent people (Mr Kelly being a prime example), but the most disgusting incident was when he made a foul personal attack on fellow LD party-member Charlie Kennedy. He was totally merciless in his spiteful vitriol. Then he had the bare cheek after Kennedy's death a couple of years later to sing his praises. Smithson is a total reptile.

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  3. Ye Gods that's an awful photo of me !

    ReplyDelete
  4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 17, 2016 at 11:39 PM

    Sadly a Nat si took Charlies seat. He was indeed a man with a social conscience. Why people bet is a matter for them but why deny your family.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 7:31 PM
      It is nice to be charitable. Labour 1, Rise 2.Yellow and Blue Tories Nil

      Hypocritical crayon chewer. Hoist by your own petard.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 18, 2016 at 1:01 AM

      Sad person on a Blog keeping records, Nat si.

      Delete
    3. Pitiful troll.

      Delete
  5. Glasgow Working Class 2April 18, 2016 at 1:05 AM

    Hey James who bought the round of drinks?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 15, 2016 at 7:31 PM
      It is nice to be charitable. Labour 1, Rise 2.Yellow and Blue Tories Nil

      Hypocritical crayon chewer. Hoist by your own petard.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 18, 2016 at 11:34 AM

      I may change my mind again and vote for the tank commander as she is left of the Nat sis.

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    3. Pitiful creature.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 18, 2016 at 2:08 PM

      Indeed you are Nat si.

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    5. You're to be pitied in your constant and irrational hatred. It must be hard work being so angry.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2April 18, 2016 at 7:14 PM

      Not hard work at all despising Nat sis that pretend to hate the Tories whilst carrying out Tory policies and screwing the poor.

      Delete
    7. Do you find it therapeutic to come on here and rant?

      Delete
  6. TheScreamingEagles Posts: 35,496
    11:54AM edited 11:56AM
    nigel4england said:
    TSE, just wondering if you have seen this:

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/here-why-political-betting-ramped-up.html?m=1


    I have, it has given me, Betfair and others a great laugh. There's so many things wrong with that, plus it also ignores all the profitable tips Mike and I did post that did cost the bookies/Betfair money.

    Poor Sam, he really is obsessed about me. He should seek help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If he found a good therapist, perhaps they could help with your obsession to continually post references to sex on Smithson's website.

      Delete
  7. TheScreamingEagles Posts: 35,496
    12:17PM
    nigel4england said:

    » show previous quotes
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nigel4england said:
    TSE, just wondering if you have seen this:

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/here-why-political-betting-ramped-up.html?m=1


    I have, it has given me, Betfair and others a great laugh. There's so many things wrong with that, plus it also ignores all the profitable tips Mike and I did post that did cost the bookies/Betfair money.

    Poor Sam, he really is obsessed about me. He should seek help.Is that you in the photo next to Mike?

    Also Sam was banned for life just after he queried you over the said bet, why was that?Nothing to do with me. He should take it up with Mike.
    FlagSpamQuote 0 · Off Topic

    ReplyDelete
  8. "I have, it has given me, Betfair and others a great laugh."

    Crikey. I've got a broader readership than I realised. A pity we can't see a picture of Betfair having a great laugh, I'm trying to imagine what that would look like.

    As has been well-documented on this blog, TSE has been caught out telling the most jaw-dropping lies in the past (about invented tragedies involving his own family, for example), so I suspect many will be a tad sceptical about his vague assurances that "there's so many things wrong with that".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Smithson was coming up with the markets for Betfair, and Eagles lied about having the bet. Two undisputed facts

      The next thread that day was Smithson advertising Betfair's prices as if he had nothing to do with them, & saying Farage was most likely winner even though he had him 2nd fav!!! Incredible front by a couple of absolute charlatans. Pure misdirection

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    2. It is a shame as The Screaming Eagles has completely ruined PB.com. He has inflicted his chauvenistic Muslim values on the site, including the recent blog about blow jobs. He does need several types of therapy - no wonder his wife left him! Classic keyboard warrior who has allowed his internet obsession destroy his life. Yet still too arrogant and stupid to see it.

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  9. The Betfair Fixed Odds site isn't really "huge" and I doubt has a major political market. There is no way anyone would be paid "a fortune" as political betting isn't a major market for any bookmaker. A exception might be Ladbrokes but the person who sets that market is quite well known.

    An example as a good bet that PB had was to tip Khan to be Mayor at 33/1.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What would you consider the going rate for nicking ideas from posters on your website, presenting them as your own then not knowing how to price them up?

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    2. My all-time favourite Smithson post was in October 2014, when he said that Alex Salmond was a fool for standing in Gordon, because a washed-up former leader clearly didn't stand a chance against the mighty Scottish Lib Dems.

      My second-favourite one was when he called the 2012 local elections a "disaster" for the SNP. It apparently didn't matter that they had won across the whole country - all that mattered was that they had fallen short in Glasgow. By the same logic, of course, the independence referendum was a disaster for the No campaign!

      Delete