Thursday, April 7, 2016

Dugdale's daft dreams turn to dust as brutal Survation poll condemns Scottish Labour to certain destruction

With less than a month to go until polling day, a new Survation poll has just been released placing Labour an eye-watering THIRTY-ONE points behind the SNP on the constituency ballot.

Constituency ballot : 

SNP 52% (-2)
Labour 21% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 44% (+2)
Labour 19% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 10% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (-1)

The Greens are making a valiant attempt to spin these numbers as some kind of amazing breakthrough for them, but if anything, I suspect they may be privately disappointed.  We know that there are very serious question marks over the way Survation pose the list ballot question - at least two eminent academics have suggested that this flaw may well lead to the SNP list vote being underestimated, and to the Green and UKIP list vote being significantly overestimated.  If that's right, what matters is not the raw Green vote reported by Survation, but the trend.  As you can see, the Greens have seemingly failed to gain any boost from the early part of official campaigning, while the SNP list vote has actually crept back up again (albeit not by a statistically significant amount).  That flatly contradicts the trend seen in this week's TNS poll, which reported a sharp drop in the SNP's list vote - albeit the Greens were only getting a limited benefit from that.  The chances that the TNS findings were a bit freakish have therefore increased, but we'll still have to wait and see what the Survation fieldwork dates were before reaching any firm conclusions.  Unusually, today's poll was commissioned by a trade union, and I wouldn't be totally surprised if that means it's been held back for a little while.  (UPDATE : Just found the fieldwork dates - the poll started on March 23rd and finished on April 3rd.  So in a sense it's reasonably up to date, although the very earliest interviews are more than two weeks old.)

Explanatory note : As a fond tribute to the mainstream media's restrained take on the GERS report, Scot Goes Pop headlines will contain 50% bonus hysteria for an indefinite period.

26 comments:

  1. How many seats does this give the SNP?

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  2. According to ScotlandVotes.com this would give;
    SNP 71
    Labour 23
    Conservative 15
    Libdem 5
    Green 2
    UKIP 0

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    Replies
    1. Which adds up to 116. There are 129 seats up for grabs.

      After using ScotlandVotes myself I see what you did. Other than SNP & Lab, you gave the 2011 results for parties. This is down to the way SV displays the results, in a mess of columns.

      SNP 71
      Labour 23
      Conservatives 18
      Lib Dem 6
      Green 11
      UKIP 0

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  3. Using Scotland votes for the figures above, I get SNP 71, Labour 23, Conservative 18, Lib Dem 6, Greens 11, UKIP 0

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    Replies
    1. That is assuming that the votes are evenly spread out through the country. It doesn't take into account any concentration of the vote in each of the Regional areas for the list. The Greens may be concentrated in Lothians but nowhere else. It depends on the List results for each Region so we have to wait and see the parties share on Election Night. That predictor that keeps being quoted would be better if it could predict the list results for each Region and not Scotland as a whole.

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  4. If Labour and Conservative get the same number of seats, will they have to take it in turns to be official opposition?

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    Replies
    1. I was thinking they could toss a coin, but could they be trusted to let it hit the ground. On second thoughts, don't know who would risk lending them it in the first place.

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    2. They could merge.

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    3. Though they had, just need to work out which is the reserve team.

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    4. That'll be for their next leaders to discuss.

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  5. red & blue tories are 2 cheeks of the same arse

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  6. calamity cameron the pig pumperApril 8, 2016 at 8:42 PM

    Superb week for the Bullingdon tax dodgers.

    Or as one potty old bigot put it "Cameron is best when his back is against the wall." And in front of the pig no doubt.

    Cameron and wee wullie rennie should go on a farmyard tour for laughing stock politicians.

    Even Jimmy Carr is having a field day laughing at the Etonian incompetent.

    PMSL!

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  7. Glasgow Working Class 2April 8, 2016 at 11:26 PM

    Will not be long until the joke nat sis are exposed. Big China Deal !

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    1. Lol, exposed for securing a £10BN investment in Scotland, creating jobs etc etc.

      Shut it, you muppet.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 9, 2016 at 5:40 PM

      Is that ten thousand Chinese Restaurants?

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    3. Petty, pathetic racist troll.

      Delete
  8. Yo, GWC wannabe Brit GCHQ
    Ca va, mon Petainist brave?

    Your wallies still hingin' in there?

    Bestest achtungs tae ye via your local LOL ludge + man hugs for the Jock Freemasons for repeatedly rejecting your repeated applications for membership on account of your neo-Mosleyite affiliations.

    Awra jackboots in your Morris Dancer bollox box and best wishes on a Hitler resurrection.

    Aye fondly
    "Uncle Joe" MacStalin

    PS Is Trotsky still trying to unpick the cocktail ice-pick frae your demented napper?

    PPS Multo homo-erotic Natsi cuddles.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 9, 2016 at 5:38 PM

      Listen muppet you will never be the orater that Trotsky was or lead an army. I sneaked over the border evading your camp! border patrols to see the Grand National. I am somewhere in England. Getting back in may be difficult.

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    2. Broadmoor is in England.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2April 9, 2016 at 11:30 PM

      Carstairs is in jockland! However the crumpet was great even the jock wummin pissed and wettin their knickers were attractive.

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    4. You got a transfer from Carstairs to Broadmoor.

      Delete
  9. Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 11, 2016 at 12:15 PM

      What face!

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    2. Pick one. You must have at least two...

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  10. Jamesey, I think the healdine would have be better with this "Dugdales daft dreams down and dusted as devastating poll demolishes the dalradian divvies.

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