Perish the thought that anyone could ever call YouGov "secretive". Until today, we had assumed that their last four EU referendum polls showed Leave in the lead, but now we learn that they've been quietly polling more recently without releasing the figures - and in all of the last four polls, Remain have been ahead, by anything between two and five points. That's too consistent a change to be easily explained away by sampling variation, so it seems there has been a genuine and potentially significant swing to Remain among the YouGov polling panel as campaigning has got underway in earnest.
Strangely, though, this can't be taken as an indication that online polling from other firms will necessarily show the same trend. The fieldwork for the first two of the four newly-released polls either preceded or overlapped with the fieldwork for the most recent ICM online poll, which not only failed to show a swing to Remain, but was actually the joint second-best poll for Leave that ICM have produced. Perhaps that poll will turn out to be a red herring, but it's at least possible that YouGov and ICM are parting company on the trend in the same way that Ipsos-Mori and ComRes have done recently on the telephone side of the divide.
As you'd expect, the release of four new polls in one go has had a telling impact on the Poll of Polls, with Remain nudging back into the lead on the online average...
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 45.8% (-0.1)
Leave 38.6% (-0.9)
ONLINE AVERAGE :
Remain 40.7% (-0.3)
Leave 39.8% (-1.9)
TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 50.8% (n/c)
Leave 37.3% (n/c)
(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on thirteen polls - six from YouGov, four from ICM, one from ORB, one from BMG and one from TNS. The telephone average is based on four polls - two from ComRes, one from Ipsos-Mori and one from Survation.)