Monday, March 7, 2016

Will Europe make a "big and generous offer" to Scotland in the event of Brexit?

It's been a long time since I last braved the unparallelled horrors of the comments section at Stormfront Lite, but for some reason I decided to do so today.  I happened to stumble across this comment from "Charles", which I thought might be worth bringing to the attention of a wider audience...

"Just had a very amusing conversation with my man in France.

The French are spitting with how Cameron f**ked up the negotiations. They wanted him to propose something sensible that worked for everyone - on immigration, on benefits and everything else. They would have then ganged up on Germany and delivered it.

But Cameron went for the "I'm alright, Jack, approach" and tried to wing the whole thing. Result - in their view - is there is a real chance that Brexit may happen. (But he confirmed that they will make a big and generous offer to Scotland.)"


SL has always had more than its fair share of out-and-out fantasists, so I've no idea if this chap really does have "a man" in the upper reaches of the French government or civil service. But his account certainly has the ring of truth to it. Keeping the lesser-populated northern third of the island of Great Britain within the EU would clearly only be a consolation prize, but I suspect it's one that European governments (with the obvious exception of Spain) might well be interested in chasing if all else fails. It would arguably steady the ship slightly at a moment of maximum danger for the European project. Could an independent Scotland be offered a fast-track to membership, and perhaps even the chance of inheriting the UK's opt-outs?

62 comments:

  1. My question would be whether Scotland would have to join the Euro in that situation. I am open to remaining in the EU (as the UK or as Scotland) but right now being a small independent member of the Eurozone looks worse than being in the UK

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    1. The countries that supposedly "have" to join the euro are showing very little sign of actually doing so.

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    2. Not only is the Euro very easy to avoid, you have to run a stable (vs.€) currency for several years before you're allowed to join.

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  2. First, no-one *has* to join the Euro. Ask Sweden or Denmark. Second, Spain would obviously have reservations because of Catalonia, but they are also the ones who profit most from fishing in Scottish waters.

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    1. A comparable situation would be rSpain voting to leave the EU, but Catalonia voting to stay in, with rSpain becoming independent of Catalonia and outside the EU.

      Anyway, Spain might threaten to block a new trade deal with an rUK outside the EU, lest Catalonia vote to leave the EU and become independent of the rest of Spain, as it looks like England + Wales might from Scotland + N. Ireland.

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    2. That would be comparable, but I don't believe Spain is as anti-EU as England.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2016 at 9:11 PM

      In the event of Brexit and Scotland being independent a few years from now we would need a Scottish currency if we were allowed into the EU if not accepting the euro. Scotland would join the euro and be at the mercy of Frankfurt. The Nat sis would sell Scotland. The Nat sis have had years to come up with a Scottish currency and a stock exchange and have failed.

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    5. GWC2 - You are the nationalist on this thread.

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    6. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2016 at 10:37 PM

      Not at all I am a Glasgwegian, Scottish and a Unionist. Nationalism is nasty and the last vestige of a scoudril.
      I am against Tory policies of privatisation, freezing council tax and not taxing the better of. The Nat sis who were verbally against Tory policies are now following them. And yet you slag aff the Tories!

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    7. You support an end to the Union (European). You are a nationalist, not a unionist.

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    8. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2016 at 11:15 PM

      What kind of nationalist? And I am against the EU because it has been proven to be corrupt and is not needed. We joined the EEC to trade not to provide careers for unnecessary politicians.

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    9. GWC2, you are a British nationalist, you want to preserve an old and parochial imperial construct rather than embrace the internationalist structure that is the EU.

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    10. It's got nothing to do with nationalism, and more to do with self-determination; dare I say it - sovereignty. As things stand at present, Scotland is part of the UK, which means if Brexit occurs the UK is out and that includes Scotland. If you then want to be independent, fine, go ahead, but the EU will not take you as countries like Spain (Catalonian issue) and Belgium (Flanders/Wallonia issue) will block your accession before you can say Haggis. Then what are you going to do. rUK won't let you use their currency, and even if the EU let you use the Euro, it still means that you have no control over your economy.

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    11. The big incentive for them to block an independent Scotland becoming a member state will have been removed, namely that they don't want to set a precedent that a part of a member state can break off and become a member in its own right. Scotland can become independent one minute after the UK officially ceases to be part of the EU, meaning that it will not have split off from a member state and so no precedent will have been created for Catalonia or Flanders.

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    12. Without the Scottish contribution, the GBP is finished as a viable currency. May I remind you of the off-the-record comments made by a member of Her Majesty's Govt during the indyref. Besides, the duty to establish Scotland as an independent state would be incumbent upon HMG. Relax. We are masters of our own destiny.

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    13. If you then want to be independent, fine, go ahead, but the EU will not take you as countries like Spain (Catalonian issue) and Belgium (Flanders/Wallonia issue) will block your accession before you can say Haggis.

      If Catalonia were independent and applying for EU membership, do you think the UK Government would block their accession (Scottish issue)? And if so, what ostensible reason would they give?

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    14. To Rapscallion:

      Absolute loony YOONY bollocks. Haven't seen so much tripe since England stopped eating it.

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  3. Why Not! Could happen! It's possible! Spain? They don't trust anybody, I know, I lived there for 15 years, but they're also good people who don't care for the South of Britain folk or Americans at all
    Scottish Passports and we're Golden

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    1. You sure like making generalisations about people who come from places.

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  4. It makes complete sense for the EU to peel away Scotland from an exiting UK as a warning to others while also reducing the bargaining power of rUK in the resulting trade negotiations.
    That's before you take into account the geographical and geopolitical advantages of Scotland. Remember the long game is to have England rejoin a far more integrated EU as a more cooperative partner and that is more likely if England's independence is a failure.

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  5. Spain will let us in. They want the fish!

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 7, 2016 at 11:31 PM

      And subsidies.

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  6. James

    Very realistic. It also gives an out for the Spanish government who can say this is not a precedent for Catalonia as Spain is not leaving the EU.

    Why would we want the Tory opt-outs? let's be proper full EU members, including Schengen and the Euro which are both great.

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  7. I don't interpret that phrase quite the same way, 'but he confirmed that they'll make a big and generous offer to Scotland'.

    I read the 'they' as Cameron et al, not Merkel and Hollande et al.

    I think he's referring to the Scotland Bill and the fiscal framework as the 'big and generous offer to Scotland'.

    Don't get your hopes up!

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    1. No, I think it was fairly obvious from the context that it was an EU (or French) offer to Scotland. I don't get my hopes up because a) I think Remain is likely (albeit far from certain) to win, and b) "Charles" may be a classic SL Tory fantasist who is just making all this up, or is reporting the verdict of a random French mate of his as if it's the view of the government.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 12:02 AM

      The EU or French should not be making any offers to Scotland as that would suggest they are interferring in our democratic process. If the UK votes to leave or remain the EU then it should be accepted as the will of the people. When we joined the EEC it was not the will of the people but a subsequent referendum vote shewed it was.

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    3. Wow. Yoon made it through an entire post without racial epithets or calling anyone Nazis. Nigel will give yoon a biscuit imminently.

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    4. The EU or French should not be making any offers to Scotland as that would suggest they are interferring in our democratic process

      You mean like some sort of 'Vow'?

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 12:31 PM

      I do not do race.

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    6. Yoon have made repeated references to Frogs and Herman. Yoon certainly have done race.

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    7. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 7:02 PM

      That is not race just derogatory.

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    8. It's race and yoon did it, thus showing yer previous statement fir the eyewash it wis. Noo git n polish Boris's shoes.

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  8. @ GWC

    You are a deluded idiot thats like a broken record. If you mean we are Nazis, say it. You can't, because you know it's rubbish. The only ones wearing psuedo military uniforms and marching around with oompa bands Nd spouting hate (remember George Square?) are the Orange Order. Now bore off!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 12:36 PM

      I have not used the Nazi word to describe you Nat sis however I am sure you have a few in your ranks. In general it is usually bigots of some other persuasion that continually have a go at the legitimate organisation called the OO.

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    2. Semantics won't cut it. Yoon have been calling the SNP Nazis for months, troll.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 7:13 PM

      Naw a hivnae prove it Nat si.

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    4. and here's what an MP who's also a member of the Loyal orders thinks about Brexit. Brace yourselves Scotland for an onslaught of similar arguments!!
      https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/03/07/drama-queen-westminster-mp/

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    5. The yoon omnitroll proves my point by calling me a Nazi and thinking that the semantics of spelling let the troll off the hook.

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  9. We should consider this at our ease. We will have time. If Brexit occurs then it will take a minimum of two years to exit, and Cameron is openly stating a decade.
    Scotland will therefore have time to have OUR exit referendum and see how things stand within that time.
    We are compliant with the Copenhagen Criteria, Acquis Communautaire---so any waiting period should be minimal.
    But let us not rush things. England is and still would be our main trading partner.
    We do have a currency dilemma. I said during REF1 we should float a currency and peg it to the EURO, but that may now drive the Pound way down, and make our trading situation terminal.
    We need an actual economist to come up with a viable solution.

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  10. I recall a French journalist on the BBC's News Channel a few weeks ago proffering the view that Scotland would be welcomed with open arms in the EU if there was a Brexit.

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  11. Coincidentally I was reading Wee Ginger Dug's Collected Yaps Vol 1 on this very subject. The Wee Ginger Dug's owner lived in Spain for many years, (as most 'Vile Separatists,' myself included, will know), so he knows his paprika from his chorizo.

    One thing he is very clear on is Spain and the EU's post YES vote roles. See pg 92 posted 1 December 2013.

    THis the paragraph which chimed with SGP's post today,

    "On Sunday, the Guardian published a poll taken in a number of Europen countries which showed that - by a very large margin - their inhabitants are not disposed to do the UK any favours and that thy are thoroughly disenchanted with the recalcitrant role the UK plays in European affairs. Yet Project Fear asks us to believe that these countries will willingly damage their own national interests to punish Scotland as a favour to Westminster, all so that Westminster can wreak a little more havoc on the common European project than it has done to date. It's not going to happen". (Quote from Wee Ginger Dug Volume 1 pgs 95-96).

    That was written nearly two and a half years ago! Think how absolutely pissed off the EU is with David Cameron and the UK eurosceptics now!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 12:28 PM

      The more pissed aff the better. Better Oot or back to the original trade agreement. Far too many politicians fleecing the tax payer.

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    2. Why cant you just sod off and ruin the enjoyment of some other blog's posts?

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    3. I'm sure replying to him will help that to happen.

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  12. When you remember that Scotland has 25% of the potential wind, wave and tidal energy of the *entire* EU, plus 62% of the proven oil and 12% of the proven gas for the *entire* EU, it becomes obvious that the EU will fight hard to keep Scotland in.

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    1. It is why the Brit Nats employed every dirty trick in the book to keep us in the Corrupt UKOK snake pit, or at least one of the reasons. They want to exploit those resources on their terms and not ours.

      But never fear the UKOK campaign to stay in EU in the early 1970s worked spectacularly well and I see no reason it wont work again.

      Whatever way the EU vote goes down South though we are well effed in Scotland!

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  13. GWC re your earlier comment - "I am against Tory policies of privatisation, freezing council tax and not taxing the better of."

    Well it would seem that you have very little choice in terms of a UK party to vote for, considering that Labour and the LibDems embrace the same policies.

    I'm interested to understand where you are coming from politically, at a UK level?

    I think it's all very well being a supporter of the UK, all very understandable; but working class, anti-Tory, in the UK? How does that work? How do you get there? Blair & co didn't believe you could do it, and they just joined them while hiding behind a red rosette.

    The LibDems morphed into the Tories completely.

    Who's going to turn the tide at a UK level?

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 7:07 PM

      Labour in Scotland are proposing a moderate tax rise although not enough. The Nat sis are a UK party and do not want to raise tax from the rich therefore Tartan Tories fits.

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    2. Oh aye, the Better Together tax. Mitigation ay the cuts yer beloved Labour party helped yer new masters push through...

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 9:10 PM

      Labour are not in power at Holyrood or Westminster so there is no chance of the Tories or their Tartan version of raising tax from the better off. The thing about the Tories is they are honest scum unlike the Tartan lot who are lying scum.

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    4. Labour's plan is tae tax everyone n tae git folk tae apply tae the cooncil fir rebates. Yoon are as confused as they are.

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  14. As for the EU 'Bureaucrats', the EU commission employs 33000 people. That compares to Glasgow CC's 20000 and Edinburgh's 18000. Not a lot really.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 7:11 PM

      The 33000 are not required neither are MEP'S. Just a useless gravy train quango.

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    2. Much like criminal Labour Lords on the Wastemonster gravy train...

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 8:56 PM

      So we are in full agreement. However it will not be long until at least one Nat si breaks the mould and enters the Lords.

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    4. Oh, don't yoon wish. SNP policy is abolition of the Lords. That used to be Labour policy until they started collecting their three hundred quid a day and subsidised bevvy. Now they all want a rat-lined robe...

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 8, 2016 at 9:16 PM

      The Nat si policy was to get out of NATO and get rid of the monarchy. And why are the Nat sis copying traditional Tory policies. Try a bit harder with your excuses Tory Boy.

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    6. If yoon are looking for Tories yoon are in the wrong place. Wisnae the SNP that made common cause wi yer new masters in the indyref.

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  15. Does Effie Deans man come from Glasgow working class background ?

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  16. Well, the fast track membership would have been on offer for an independent Scotland, at least as far as Germany was concerned. There is no reason to think that has changed. If the commentator named Charles is to be believed, that's the two most powerful nations within the EU in favour of offering Scotland the EU membership.

    As far as the UK as a whole is concerned, for various reasons, the goodwill of many European nations towards the UK is eroding and the general mood looks likely to swing towards giving a post-Brexit UK no quarter.

    Britain is known as somewhat of a hypocrite when it comes to the EU. British MEPs have for decades instigated, suggested and supported laws they then pretended to have fought against on their return to the UK. They also love nothing more than to blame the EU for problems caused entirely by their own failures (see last year's floods blamed on EU, which prompted the EU to put out a press release refuting this in detail). This fact is now widely known outside of the UK (less so within) and highly damages the credibility of the UK.

    Worse still is the fact that the UK demands and receives special treatment with a whole range of exemptions and privileges given only to us, but is unwilling to return the favour or even to pull its weight within the union, even when all other member states agree.

    As Cameron is doing this entire exercise purely to becalm Eurosceptic and therefore UKIP-favouring voters, it's a really sore point that he is negotiating over immigration etc (measures on which will have only a minute effect within the UK, but will significantly damage the interests of a great number of EU countries), but does not seek to change any of those issues that desperately need to be addressed (for instance the undemocratic setup providing for a law-making unelected chamber and one that while elected has no real executive or legislative power).

    Add all that up and it is entirely ludicrous to think that EU member states will be at all willing to continue to afford an out-UK the special treatment it has received until now.

    This is not news to anyone who can read the national press abroad, by the way. Our media, however, chooses to focus on the other countries asking us to stay while completely ignoring the multitude of voices saying "good riddance and don't come back asking for favours".

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