Thursday, March 31, 2016

Magnificent Maryfield makes mincemeat of Dugdale's minions as classy SNP storm to by-election glory

Maryfield by-election result (31st March) :

SNP 49.5% (-1.3)
Labour 22.7% (-13.7)
Conservatives 10.5% (+3.2)
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 5.1% (+3.3)
Greens 4.1% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 3.0% (-0.7)
Independent - McLeod 2.6% (n/a)
UKIP 2.5% (n/a)

I almost always end up calculating by-election results for myself, because it's amazing how often the percentages reported on social media (even by normally reliable sources) turn out to be wildly inaccurate, probably because of the complexity of the voting system.  In this case, my calculation almost tallies up with the figures reported by Britain Elects, but some of the percentage changes differ by 0.1%.  I gather from Facebook that the snappily titled "Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts" are exactly the same outfit as the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, who stood in the ward in 2012, so that's why I've listed a (rather impressive) 3.3% increase in their vote.

In a sense it's disappointing that the SNP's vote has slipped slightly, given that the baseline figure comes from an election in which the SNP were polling below 35% across the country.  A much more crowded field this time around can partly explain the drop, although admittedly it didn't prevent the Tories increasing their vote.  But the real story of this contest is a net 6.2% swing from Labour to the SNP, which is the rough equivalent of a 17% or 18% swing in the UK general election.  That's a bit less than the SNP typically achieved in former Labour heartlands last year, but is still a pretty dismal result for Labour given the difficult background against which the SNP were campaigning in the ward.

The downside of the SNP getting so close to 50% of the first preference vote is that we didn't get to see the full range of transfers, but we did find out how the small number of UKIP voters transferred : Conservatives 10, Independent 8, SNP 6, TUSC 5, Labour 3, Greens 2, Liberal Democrats 2.  I'm not sure that tells us a huge amount, although it's perhaps surprising the Tories weren't favoured more heavily.

*  *  *

There have now been four EU referendum polls conducted since the attacks in Brussels.  Two (ICM and ORB) have shown a boost for Remain, one (BMG) has shown a boost for Leave, and the other (TNS) has shown no change.  So taking all of the available information together, it looks as if last week's tragedy hasn't fundamentally affected the state of play, although perhaps we shouldn't jump to conclusions until we see the first post-Brussels telephone poll.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 44.3% (+0.2)
Leave 40.9% (+0.5)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 41.0% (+0.4)
Leave 40.2% (+0.9)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 47.5% (n/c)
Leave 41.5% (n/c)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on eleven polls - four from ICM, three from YouGov, two from TNS, one from ORB and one from BMG. The telephone average is based on four polls - one from ComRes, one from Ipsos-Mori, one from ORB and one from Survation.)

17 comments:

  1. I was helping out today so quite pleased with the result. We had far more candidates than normal in this ward. The TUSAC candidate is a well know local Yes activist in the ward and so took a bit of our vote but still getting nearly 50% of the vote is quite something. The low turnout will put the Tory share of the vote up as their core vote turns out better than others.

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    1. as an aside - there was a by-election in this ward in March 2009 when the SNP councillor who resigned recently chalked up 46.8% of the vote and gained the seat from Labour.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 1, 2016 at 12:35 AM

      If you look at the figures almost as many did not vote for Tartan Tory natsi ism. Seems the Union is intactium however it proves many Scots do not want to put their hands in their pockets and pay for public services. Still a handout culture taking from the English taxpayer.

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    3. We won - you lost. :) :) :)

      Goodnight all.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 1, 2016 at 1:29 AM

      A small skirmish Marcia but nothing to break the back of the greatest Union in political history. But do carry on trying to lead the Scots back into 17th century poverty and the Clans. Och Aye Ra Noo.

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    5. (sounds the fake plastic Weegie Klaxon)

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    6. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

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    7. I think glasgow working class 2 is flogging a dead parrot and has been for a long time.

      Though gwc 2 would probably say..

      No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage

      And probably throw a Godwins law reference in somewhere.


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  2. As a constituent of the ward I'd like to add I was very impressed with the efforts of both the SNP and TSUC.
    But if I had to hear that independent candidate's van going about for one more day I was ready to launch something at it.
    Playing an annoying song loudly through speakers attached to an advertising vam is definitely no vote winner.

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    1. The Independent chap must have spent a small fortune on that ad trailer and that awful sound system that annoyed quite a few voters today. Apparently the Independent helpers today claimed he is a strong Yes supporter.

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    2. Yup, not surprised it cost him q lot. It was doing loops of the area all day long. Best thing is it never went past slow enough to either hear the song properly or read the advert!

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  3. When I see that 6 Kippers transferred their vote to SNP I felt sure this was an early April Fool! I feel sure it wouldn't happen in Moray if any Kipper was brave enough to admit he was a Kipper. The Tories not lapping them all up is a strange one. Or is it Dundonian humour?

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  4. Have you stopped the 'added hysteria' headlines? Because if not, this one seriously disappoints!

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  5. You seem to get a genuinly tedious quality of unionist posting here James, there not even "core value" amusing. Need to up your game folks.

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  6. Considering the ramping up of anti-SNP, anti-Indy, coverage in papers and BBC ( see Glenn Campbell carefully explaining to Jackie Bird how good Labour's Tax 'plan' was) and the opposition now from Green, Rise, seems amazing that the SNP hold so well.

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    Replies
    1. No-one is listening to the BBC or the Scottish anti-Scottish media. They are busted flushes in Scotland.

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