Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Leave campaign receive big boost in landmark ComRes telephone poll

As you'll remember, the Leave campaign took the lead in a telephone poll last week.  That was a genuinely sensational result, because all previous telephone polls had put Remain ahead by either a substantial or enormous margin.  The snag was that the new poll was carried out by ORB, who hadn't previously conducted an EU referendum poll by telephone.  So there were no baseline figures to work from, and it wasn't entirely clear whether there was some sort of ORB 'house effect' favouring Leave, or whether Remain's big lead in telephone polls had genuinely evaporated.  The first evidence today from a non-ORB telephone poll suggests that it may be a bit of both.  ComRes still have Remain ahead, but the lead has slumped to its lowest level to date, and Leave now appear to be firmly within striking distance.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 48% (-3)
Leave 41% (+2)

There's still a missing piece in the jigsaw, though.  ComRes first reported significant slippage in the Remain lead a good few weeks ago, and yet the only Ipsos-Mori telephone poll since then showed business as usual.  Logically, you'd think that the next Ipsos-Mori poll would be bound to finally start picking up the same trend as ComRes, but if it doesn't we'll be left scratching our heads slightly (and not for the first time).

Online polls have of course been showing much more favourable results for Leave all along.  That wouldn't necessarily stop them showing the same direction of travel as phone polls, but it's extremely unclear whether that's happening at the moment.  ICM appear to have detected a small swing to Leave in recent weeks, but the last batch of YouGov polls (which admittedly were quite a while ago now) suggested that it was Remain that had made some progress. 

And we don't have any post-Brussels polls yet, so for all we know the entire state of play may have been rapidly transformed by yesterday's horrific events.  It's hard to know which side that might benefit - if there's an urge to show solidarity with Belgium and France, that ought to work in Remain's favour, but of course anything that promotes irrational fear of immigration might be expected to boost Leave.  We'll just have to wait and see.

I'll calculate the Poll of Polls update later, but I've no doubt at all that the 50/50 online/telephone average will show the Remain lead at a new all-time low.

UPDATE : In fact, it's pretty extraordinary - the telephone and online averages have more or less converged.  That's very likely to be a freakish finding, because there are only two polls in the telephone sample, and one of them is the ultra-Leave-friendly ORB poll.  But the rules are the rules.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 44.2% (-1.6)
Leave 42.6% (+2.9)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 40.9% (-0.3)
Leave 40.1% (+0.1)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 47.5% (-2.8)
Leave 45.0% (+5.7)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on ten polls - four from YouGov, four from ICM, one from ORB and one from TNS. The telephone average is based on two polls - one from ComRes and one from ORB.)

100 comments:

  1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 23, 2016 at 9:44 PM

    Great news indeed there is a chance that Scotland will not be sold out to the EU by the Nat sis.

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    1. Nat sis? What a pillock.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 23, 2016 at 10:48 PM

      Anon are you the Bigot PT that posts on Irish Republican Flowers?

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    3. (sounds the gibbering Nazi obsessed troll Klaxon)

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 24, 2016 at 6:54 PM

      Caught then? Scotland does not command your loyalty after all.

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    5. (sounds the clueless Yoon omnishambles Klaxon)

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  2. I wonder if English Patriotism will last longer than 80 minutes? I must congratulate them on their Grand Slam win. Will Brexit get a boost from it?

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  3. There's one big snag James. The 48-41 score is based on self-reported turnout. In the same poll, ComRes found a much bigger lead for Remain (52 - 38) if they applied their turnout weighting model, which they would do for general election VI polls. This is because Remain was further ahead with more affluent voters.

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-march-2016-eu-referendum-poll/

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    1. I don't expect England to vote leave, but instead there'll be a narrow Remain. Of course that will cause a grandiose mess, splitting the Tory party, even triggering a new GE. Will cause unstable UK government for years as the 'independence' issue refuses to go away. Of course that's not a bad outcome for Scotland. Will just reinforce the feelings expressed in the latest SSAS; better that the Scottish government run everything in Scotland rather than the incompetent mess that Westminster is descending into.

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    2. James M : Not sure that's such a big snag. ComRes have been producing additional turnout-filtered figures for some time, and they have consistently shown a bigger Remain lead than the headline numbers. That contradicts what we've been hearing from other pollsters - ICM have been dropping fairly heavy hints that as soon as they introduce their own turnout filter, the Leave vote will increase (presumably because older people are disproprtionately Leave and are more likely to vote). So the most that can be said is that the pollsters are still struggling to get on top of this problem.

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    3. Wishful thinking Skier. If the right splits in a first past the post system, the left wins big and implements all the stuff they hate anyway. So the tory party will not be ripped apart. They will stick together out of necessity.

      Also, most people do not feel particularly strongly about Europe. They just want to have a say on it for the first time in their lives (if they are younger than 58) and, if they are older, to be given the opportunity to revisit the issue. When the vote is over, the boil is lanced.

      Aldo

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    4. (sounds the John Major wishful thinking Klaxon)

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  4. Oh, and James... In the MORI telephone tables on the EU and her maj poll, there's EU VI crosstab data which suggests 60:40 for remain ex DK.

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  5. Happy non-independence day guys! We could have been independent and facing the worst austerity since a puritan in the 1950s. But instead we get to remain a proud and stable part of the fifth largest world economy. Hooray!!

    Aldo

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    Replies
    1. Yay for eternal Tory rule we didn't vote for! Yippee!

      *does a cartwheel*

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    2. Remember that WFI meeting when kezia dogbreath had to explain the labour leaflet that stated Scotland would be poorer than Pakistan.

      Stick your 5th largest up your quisling arse. Tiny poor Norway or huge rich India.

      WWhy do you hate Scotland and Scottish people?

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    3. Indeed, James, I'm glad you are coming around to our way of thinking. Besides which eternal socialist rule would be far, far worse.

      Why are Nationalists so obsessed with Norway? High taxes, high cost of living, dwindling resources, increasing social problems. No thanks to that also.

      I think I will buy a bottle of champagne on my way home tonight.

      Aldo

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    4. Good idea. You'll need it to drown your sorrows soon enough.

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    5. I'm not particularly worried about the SNP unionists taking Holyrood James.

      Aldo

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    6. Aldo, you do realise that more Scots now think Scotland would be better off economically if it was independent precisely because pro-UK parties keep telling Scots that being part of the UK is ruining Scotland financially right?

      I don't understand how unionists fail to get this. If you want Scotland to stay in the UK, demonstrate how well it is doing economically, not try to show things are really crap. This is just basic common sense stuff FGS.

      ---

      43% Independence would be better for Scotland's economy
      37% Independence would be worse for Scotland's economy

      SSAS Fieldwork July 2015 - January 2016.

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    7. The Scottish economy is garbage. The union is what keeps it on life support.

      Your poll demonstrates that a minority of people believe independence would be good economically - with the rest either taking the opposite view or not expressing an opinion either way. This isn't exactly an endorsement of the economic case for independence. It also finished in January '16 - missing the recent devastating GERS report by a couple of months.

      Nice try though!

      Aldo

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    8. I find it so amusing that you don't get it.

      Scotland was on its knees in 1997 (excluding oil and gas). The equivalent of the population of Dundee had emigrated in search of a better life as testament to that.

      74% voted Yes with 64% for the max independence on offer. Polls suggest that 64% is what you'd have got for independence at the time.

      So, by all means keep going with the 'Being in the UK is ruining Scotland's economy' thing. It's working as you can seen from the SSAS results and Holyrood polling.

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    9. Don't be an idiot. Don't knows get removed. The remaining proportions show 53.57% saying better off and 46.25% saying worse off - a statistically meaningful lead of over 7 percentage points.

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    10. Skier, on the contrary, the UK does all it realistically can to help Scotland with huge state support - a subsidy to the tune of 15 billion pounds per year and increasing. To lose this would represent dire consequences for Scotland's services and its economy. You wilfully choose to misinterpret the situation as Scotland being dragged down. But a quick glance at the Scottish Government's own figures dispels that myth.

      64% for indy in 1997? Hahaha!! Oh dear! :0)

      Anon, I'm well aware that don't knows get removed. They continue to exist in the population, however, and can still vote. We know that in 2014 those unsure voters decided to stick overwhelmingly with the status quo.

      Aldo

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    11. The 15 billion deficit includes nonsense like major infrastructure programs in England that Scotland contribute to an an inflated military budget, amongst other things that would not be included in iScotland's figures.

      Regardless, the UK didn't subsidise Scotland a single penny. If you weren't aware the UK runs a massive deficit too. All deficits are closed by loans, not y the UK. So what is to stop Scotland securing their own loan?

      I'm not sure if you are an idiot and are not aware of this or you are aware of this but just feign ignorance so support your agenda.

      Mandela

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  6. Or Anonymous, as we say in Scotland.

    Aye..........Right

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  7. Re Glasgow Working Class 2

    I noticed on the earlier thread that your Da was a Commie.
    Would he proud of the fact that his child turned out to be a Tory?
    Just asking.......

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 24, 2016 at 12:43 PM

      He would have been sad to see the Yellow Tartan Tories continuing with Blue Tory policies. Buses, Train privatisation etc. Not taxing the rich. Giving tax relief to Corporations. Freezing council tax. Taking large donations from the bus man who was a fan of Thatcher. OK knob now do try and ask sensible questions.

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    2. Your dad sounds like a bit of an idiot.

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    3. (sounds the evasive Red Tory Klaxon)

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  8. GWC

    This is the "knob" again;

    You didn't answer the question.

    Would your dad be proud of you turning out to be a Tory?
    Simple question...

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 24, 2016 at 6:40 PM

      I think we should keep this blog for the living. You are simple and your question irrelevantl

      Delete
    2. (sounds the nippy Yoon troll Klaxon)

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  9. Maybe the people of Scotland are interested in the nearby state of Norway because they have a similar population, are a northern European country with substantial fishing resources and a lot less oil and gas than Scotland. They are also the richest people on the planet.

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  10. WeSaidNoToYesMen :-)March 24, 2016 at 4:07 PM

    Happy Non-Independence Day Everybody!

    Better Together

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. (sounds the Tory bag carrier Klaxon)

      Delete
    2. Happy Dependence Day

      Delete
  11. Glasgow Working Class 2March 24, 2016 at 6:46 PM

    You Nat sis must be scunnered that thousands of jobs were saved and thousands of Scots were not forced to leave Scotland for work.

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    Replies
    1. (sounds the shrieking Britnat troll Klaxon)

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 24, 2016 at 11:10 PM

      If people wanted to leave Scotland then that is their choice. Someone else can take over their job.

      Delete
  12. Do the various pollsters ask the question about eligibility to vote?

    In the Scottish referendum the voters roll was used. That mean't different nationalities were able to vote, whereas for David Cameron's reformed EU referendum only British voters are eligible.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 24, 2016 at 8:19 PM

      Scottish residents who enrolled voted. And you Nat sis lost. Were you scunnered an sick tae the stomach folowed by nausea? Go On Go On tell an make ma day Nat si.

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    2. (sounds the floundering Britnat Klaxon)

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    3. James, if you want readers to keep coming back, you may wish to have some basic rules here. You seem to attract some brain dead posters such as GWC2 who is ruining what you have built up. Is it too much to ask for a thread free of personal insults.

      Delete
  13. I knew it! GWC is a Tory. Just so you all know.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 24, 2016 at 7:56 PM

      Always thought that Joke Nat sis would not want to be part of any Union. Seems I was wrong. They want to sell Scotland out to the nearest bidder.
      Shameless Yellow Tories.

      Delete
    2. (sounds the Red Tory blare)

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 24, 2016 at 9:22 PM

      Sounds the soundbite Yellow Tory who makes no sense to herself or is it him. Who care Nat si loser.

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    4. (sounds the shrieking Britnat troll Klaxon)

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  14. GWC is a Tory.
    His Commie dad (bless him) would/will be sooo disappointed.
    I pity you....

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 25, 2016 at 12:33 AM

      Have you considered making a political comment! Instead of referring to the dead. Or are you dead. Do move on idiot.

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    2. (sounds the shrieking Red Tory Klaxon)

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    3. I did make a political statement. I'll repeat it for your benefit; GWC is a Tory.
      The evidence?
      GWC supports a Blue/Red London Tory government governing Scotland, therefor GWC is a Tory.
      Simples....

      Delete
    4. GWC also mentioned in a reply to one of my comments that his family came to Scotland, worked hard and made it good, so he is from a wealthy family and certainly not 'working class' or if he calls himself working class it's in the same way that Margaret Curran used to call herself Glaswegian Working Class, from her £2 million house in a posh part of Glasgow.

      GWC is the worse type of Tory, he holds on to the coat tails of his successful parents, but wants to make sure no-one else can climb the ladder as well, so he hates the socialism of the SNP and their ideas of taxing the wealthy to give educational and life chances to all Scots who wants it. what tories like him want is for the poor to be clobbered in order to offer even ore tax breaks to the rich, who as Gordon Brown assured us would then earn more money and pay even more tax that would trickle down for the benefit of all.

      RED Tories/Blue Tories/ Lying Tories.

      Your father would be ashamed GWC, but the chaps down the Conservative Club will be scoffing with delight at you.

      Delete
  15. Talking of Political Corpses....... how are you McGibbon?

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 25, 2016 at 7:08 PM

      Fine David hope you are well.

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  16. Still hiding your Tory leanings under a Glesca-Speak bushel?

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  17. Glasgow Working Class 2March 25, 2016 at 10:14 PM

    David, sometimes you speak a resemblance of sense then you talk shoite. Get a grip man. You are supporting Yellow Tartan Tory Nat sis. When did you decide to sell out the working class. Have the Nat sis given you a salary.

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    1. (sounds the gibbering Britnat Klaxon)

      Delete
  18. Craig - you are really fooling no-one any more, pal.

    You are an obvious Tory, so stop pretending otherwise.

    It is not illegal to be a Scottish Tory (yet) and you have every right to follow a Party that most Scots would use to wipe their erses.

    At least be honest and stop the pretence.

    I am SNP, have been for many decades and am proud of that fact.

    Get some self-respect, pal and come out of yer wee Conservative Closet.

    I will still talk to you - even if I would need to take some anti-emetics first.

    Only joking!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 25, 2016 at 10:56 PM

      Seems we have a first in Scotland. A muslim shopkeeper has been murdered for allegedly wishing christians a happy Easter. Time to vote brexit before it is too late.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 25, 2016 at 11:00 PM

      Francis, I thought you claimed to be a socialist some time back? When did you change and join the Nats is?

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    3. What's wrong, McGibbon?

      Ashamed of being a Tory?

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 26, 2016 at 12:13 AM

      Question answered by a question!

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    5. (sounds the Red Tory blare)

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  19. I just seen a Press Association Poll of Polls which strips out NI figures. Dont know why they do that but the Remain lead is just 1% at 41 to 40 and a massive 19% are listed as undecided. Well that is a large number of undecided to me at least.

    I am going to laugh my head of if things are so close that anti EU England is kept in EU by Scots and NI votes. I have a feeling that "once in a generation" is going to disappear quickly from Brit Nat Press and Media speak if Scots keep anti EU England in the EU. I will also expect to see "respect for the result" similarly vanish from the Brit Nat Media vocabulary!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 25, 2016 at 11:29 PM

      Scots, NI and not all Welsh are subsidy junkies. The English who are the mass taxpayers are the subsidise r's. And yet the Nat sis hate the hand that feeds them.

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    2. I said exactly the same thing, months ago.

      If it is only the Scottish NO vote which prevents a narrow English Leave vote from getting over the 50% line......there will be all hell to pay, starting with the Daily Fail, the Torygraph et al.

      There is absolutely no way that England will accept Scotland having the decisive say on the EU.

      Personally, I believe that could have a catastrophic effect for the British Union, as the English Brexiters and their numerous friends in the MSM, go off their collective heads.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 26, 2016 at 12:21 AM

      Better in the British Union David and oot of the EU you know it makes sense!
      The EU have let in the religious nutters who are on a blood lust killing spree.
      We have to protect ourselves from inept EU politicians. Time tae get oot.



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    4. (sounds the Kipper boot polisher Klaxon

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  20. Oh I am laughing at this

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

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    1. Looks like GWC2 Will have to move to erm Provincial Tory Voting Ingerland and it seems they don't like him very much! Oh dear! I am sure the Kippers will love you - well maybe not!

      Delete
  21. Glasgow Working Class 2March 26, 2016 at 10:53 AM

    Surely if we vote to leave the EU is doing you Nat sis a favour as it gives you the excuse to have another Scottish referendum. You may win and even hand Scotland over to the EU euro and all with border posts with England. Francis, Anon and More are chuggin at the thought.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. (sounds the Kipper bag carrier Klaxon)

      Delete
  22. So Craig McGibbon a Tory from a well to do family, is so thick and lacking of any morals, that he has been coming on this site pretending to be a Labour voting Working class Glaswegian, and has repeatedly used the title tartan Tories as an insult.

    Think about that for just one minute, imagine being someone, that is so lacking in any genuine moral standard, that you were reduced to coming on a political site to insult people, by accusing them of being something that you choose to be by choice!

    Can you imagine how empty of meaning his life must be!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was my fault, earlier.

      He is, indeed, James - not Craig.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 26, 2016 at 7:06 PM

      Whats your name Anon? Second name coward! David Francis probably knows my address. Easy to round us up.

      Delete
    3. Why don't you just post under your own name, McGibbon?

      What's to lose?

      Delete
  23. "I am going to laugh my head of if things are so close that anti EU England is kept in EU by Scots and NI votes. I have a feeling that "once in a generation" is going to disappear quickly from Brit Nat Press and Media speak if Scots keep anti EU England in the EU."

    You and others fail to realise that most voters don't view the result in terms of 'england', 'scotland' etc. Most voters will just note the overall result for the country. Only narrow minded nationalists would break things down as you do. Regional breakdowns of the vote will be irrelevant to most people in the UK and the result accepted for what it is. Real shame the narrow nationalist politics agenda of SNP supporters and others continues to seek to create division where none exists.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Eh? The post you quote doesn't say anything about voters. It says the press will make a fuss. Given that the Tory, anti-EU sectors of the media do indeed contain a large proportion of "narrow minded nationalists", who currently have a major hard-on about EVEL, that prediction seems pretty reasonable.

      Delete
    2. That is not correct. There is a huge under current of anti EU feeling in England. If the result is close and a "remain" based on Scots and/or NI votes there will be great ill feeling.

      People in England will feel angry and that will be displayed in terms of "Englishness" not "Britishness".

      Call THAT narrow minded nationalism if you choose but it will certainly be an anglocentric reaction.

      Delete
    3. Most people in Britain are not 'British'. In England, most are English, just as in Scotland, most are Scottish. Same for Wales; mainly Welsh.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24302914

      Opinium just got a similar result. Only 40% of respondents said 'British' was part of their identity.

      Note that support for leaving the EU is strongest in the most English areas of England.

      https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

      EU referendum: Provincial England versus London and the Celts

      So people in England are thinking about this from a very English perspective. That's who they are. Just because they much more commonly conflate the terms English and British, doesn't change the situation.

      Delete
    4. Thank you Keaton. You are correct I was referring to the Brit Nat Press and Media and not voters. It wasn't me breaking things down but YouGov that chose to break things down as they did. Anon will have to ask them their motives for doing so. It certainly made for a good headline story of Provincial Ingerland against London and the Celts.

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 26, 2016 at 10:24 PM

      The Celts were from Germany, Austria etc. Or is it a football team.

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    6. (sounds the gibbering Britnat Klaxon)

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  24. James

    There is a Survation poll in the Sunday Post according to a tweet by PLW.

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    1. According to Sunday Post a poll of 1000 voters aged 60+. That would be their core readership.

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    2. They could lose their Attendance Allowances if they have demonstrated still having their wits etc about them.

      Delete
  25. Sunday Post poll a disaster for Labour with over 60's abandoning them for the SNP and the Tories.

    If they lose the auld ains, they lose the only demographic that they can still scare into voting for them.

    The majority of those polled think that Labour will never be in power in Scotland ever again!

    They're finished in Scotland and all that will be left to do after the 2017 local elections remove what little power they have left, will be to bayonet the bodies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 27, 2016 at 12:06 AM

      The Jocks were always fast forward with the bayonet. Helped build the Empire and Scottish prosperity. Better than living in a butt an ben wie nae lights.
      You Nat sis are in denial like the Irish you want the prosperity but slag aff the Union for giving it. Pure hypocrite vomit materiel.

      Delete
    2. (sounds the Red Tory sense of thwarted entitlement Klaxon)

      Delete
  26. Glasgow Working Class 2March 26, 2016 at 11:35 PM

    Pensioners usually always vote for their own interests and not daft nationalism. The new Tory pension scheme from April this year will give muppets who have worked most of their life £600 quid a month including myself however I would never consider voting for either Tory Parties BLue or Yellow. Labour 1 & 2.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 26, 2016 at 11:59 PM

      Yes neither Tory Lite or Tory Proper. It has to be SNP for Constituency and List.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 27, 2016 at 12:11 AM

      You omitted Tartan Tory SNP.

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    3. (sounds the Red Tory blare)

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  27. Labour on 19% of the pensioner vote? On the back of their conference? This must be the most depressing poll ever for them.They keep hitting a new low and I think "that's them down to their core support,what's left will not change their vote".......but they continue to do so! I wonder how many Labour voting pensioners maybe feel a little guilt for trampling on their children and grand children's hopes and dreams.There definitely will be some.

    When we look at any poll we must remember it's only a snapshot at a certain moment.When we look at a poll of the elderly we have to think about voter turnover,which is dramatically higher than in the population as a whole.Does this mean swings can be much more dramatic in that group?

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    1. If the poll was done by internet I would question the purpose of the poll as I know quite a lot of over 60's who don't have a computer nor a mobile phone. It might skew the poll to the more wealthy section of that age demographic and get a higher Tory vote than a face to face poll. Still, it is a dire poll for Labour.

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