Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Drama as Leave take the lead for the first time in a telephone poll

In spite of the lavish coverage of Lynton Crosby's grandiose musings on yesterday's EU referendum poll from ORB, I didn't actually pay a huge amount of attention to the poll itself, because at first glance the numbers looked fairly routine.  But as soon as you realise that it was conducted by telephone and not among a volunteer online polling panel, suddenly it looks a hell of a lot more significant.

Remain 47%
Leave 49%

This isn't quite the game-changer that it might have been if it was a ComRes, Ipsos-Mori or Survation telephone poll putting Leave ahead, because that would be fairly convincing proof that there has been a swing to Leave.  Since ORB haven't previously polled by phone during this campaign, it's possible that there's some kind of house effect that is favouring Leave in this poll, and that if the other telephone firms polled again, they'd produce much more familiar numbers.  But there's no getting away from it - the fact that it's even possible for any sort of telephone poll to put Leave ahead completely transforms our understanding of this contest.  Until now, the telephone leads for Remain have ranged from substantial to overwhelming, and that's been the comfort blanket that has reassured many pro-European commentators that Brexit is highly unlikely.  Suddenly it doesn't look quite so simple.

Probably the biggest health warning that needs to be slapped on this poll is that ORB don't seem to have asked the exact referendum question.  (I'm not 100% sure about that, because the datasets are quite difficult to decipher, but it looks that way.)  We know from Ipsos-Mori's research that the official question tends to produce better numbers from Remain - which is a bit odd, given that the wording is scrupulously neutral.  So perhaps Leave are being flattered slightly by ORB, but even allowing for that, it's hard to deny that this is the Outers' most encouraging phone poll to date by some distance.

Where does this leave us?  Completely in the dark, basically.

* YouGov haven't reported recently, but their most recent batch of polls seemed to suggest a significant swing to Remain among their online panel.  However, a more up-to-date full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov showed a big swing to Leave - it's unclear whether that's a Scotland-only effect, or whether it reflects a very recent shift in Britain-wide opinion that will only be picked up by the next UK poll from the firm.

* ICM are the other most prominent online pollster, and you could make a case that they're either showing no meaningful recent change, or a small swing to Leave.  But there's certainly no sign at all of a YouGov-style swing to Remain.

* Neither ComRes nor Ipsos-Mori have published a telephone poll recently.  The last time they did, ComRes seemed to be suggesting that Leave had made some progress, while Ipsos-Mori showed no change of any significance.  But both firms still showed substantial Remain leads.

* And now we have the first telephone poll to put Leave ahead, but with no baseline figures from ORB to measure from.

It's as clear as mud, but on balance I'd suggest Leave have reason to be more confident than they were a few days ago.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 45.8% (-0.1)
Leave 39.7% (+1.1)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 41.2% (+0.3)
Leave 40.0% (+0.2)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 50.3% (-0.5)
Leave 39.3% (+2.0)


(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on ten polls - five from YouGov, three from ICM, one from ORB and one from BMG. The telephone average is based on four polls - one from ComRes, one from Ipsos-Mori, one from ORB and one from Survation.)

*  *  *

You learn something new every day - according to the Telegraph, members of the House of Lords will be allowed to vote in the EU referendum, but only if they live in Gibraltar.  That sounds eminently sensible.

*  *  *

Many thanks to the 227 people who voted in this blog's latest readers' poll.  It may be somewhat academic after Hillary Clinton's solid results overnight, but no fewer than 214 of you (that's 94.3%) reckoned that Scotland's favourite "centre-right socialist" Stephen Daisley would vote for Donald Trump in a hypothetical contest against Bernie Sanders.  Evidently you think "right" is the operative word, rather than "centre" or "socialist".

68 comments:

  1. I thought it interesting that the BBC presenter described the program being set up to SHAPE the Scottish news.

    SHAPE

    So that is what it is all about. Them telling us what the news is.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry folks. This is not the comment I meant to make on this site.

      I shouldn't try to multi-task commenting!

      Delete
  2. Somewhat off topic but I stayed up last night to find out the results of the primaries in the US and was gobsmacked by the eventual lead of Kasich over Trump in Ohio (47% - 36%) when a poll about a day earlier had placed them in a 33% - 33% dead heat. My thinking soon turned to the Holyrood election. If polls in this country are as open to error, then you could have a situation where the SNP actually LOSES - despite the polling putting them well over the 50% line in terms of seats won.

    If this isn't likely and the polls in Scotland are to be treated as being deadly accurate, then what makes polling in the American primaries so inaccurate?

    Aldo

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    Replies
    1. Scottish polling isn't deadly accurate. Not individual pollsters anyway. ICM for example predicted 43% SNP and 7% UKIP in 2 polls ahead of May 15. So much for the gold standard.

      However, when all the polls of different methods were averaged for May 15, the prediction was spot on. This wasn't the case in England, although the error there was really at the bounds of normal error. Still seemed something was wrong though.

      Iref polling in scotland was similarly very accurate. Given that it was a first, the fact the averages said 'Narrow No' and were within error, was pretty impressive.

      No idea about US polling though.

      Delete
    2. It was people crossing over to vote in Republican primary. Ohio is usually mostly closed . this time it was wide open. So you have dems and indys who usually vote Dem voting for trump, for kasich, against trump. In fairness , some of these races are hard. Is such Is viewed as a moderate Republican acting hard right to win. Personally he is pretty nice, so a lot of locals would vote for him. Nobody is noticing that Hillary is racking up huge totals. Bernie is actually doing as well as trump. Trumps % of vote would not win in normal year.plus, the pollsters are not asking good qualifying questions. Plus people lie. We are seeing a huge shy female factor. Woman are saying they are undecided and then voting for her. If you break out the vote, she is getting 70% of female vote.

      Delete
    3. Thanks for clearing that up Bill.

      Aldo

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  3. 55 Remain / 29 leave looks fairly standard for Scotland in the ORB subsample.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. David Coburn just tweeted this link to ScotGoesPop.

      "Lastest Scots BREXIT poll Puts both camps almost neck and neck #Scotleave @naefear http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk "

      Delete
  4. This is pre-budget for the better / schools privatisation.

    Uh-oh George. That ICM poll looks all the more plausible now.

    The government is managing the economy...
    Well: 38% (-12)
    Badly: 49% (+8)

    As Chancellor, George Osborne is doing a...
    Good job: 21% (-15)
    Bad job: 45% (+5)

    On who would make a better Chancellor of the Exchequer:
    G. Osborne: 21% (-22)
    J. McDonnell: 11% (-5)
    (via YouGov)
    Chgs. from Nov 2015.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking at the data for Osborne, I think the Tories need to get rid of him and come up with a long term economic plan asap. Only 21% 'doing a good' job; that's shite. It's the sort of level you get in Scotland for the Tories.

      Delete
    2. Creepy as Osborne is, I think it tends to be more about the economy than the man. Gordon Brown averaged around 60% during his tenure as Chancellor, and he wasn't doing anything revolutionary.

      He could have turned up to work drunk and we'd still have had record GDP.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 16, 2016 at 10:04 PM

      People who turn up drunk for work probably make quick rational decisions unlike the sad sober person who reflects too long and fooks up. Anon & Skier would probably fook up.

      Delete
    4. (sounds the Tory bag carrier Klaxon)

      Delete
    5. Does such a poor rating make it more difficult for Osborne to be viewed as a future Tory leader?

      Delete
    6. Probably, but not much. Taking it the other way round, the popular Chancellor Gordon Brown wasn't a popular choice as PM.
      Osborne isn't exactly well liked, but Tory leader isn't picked by popular vote, and the question will be more about how he's perceived compared to his rivals.

      If it's a choice between Osborne, Boris or Theresa May, some people may see him as the most moderate choice on offer.

      Personally he gives me the creeps, he has a slightly worrying fixed grin that reminds me of the aliens in Galaxy Quest. But then I don't suppose I'm his demographic.

      Delete
  5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 16, 2016 at 8:52 PM

    Great news that people are waking up to this corrupt EU gravy train paying useless politicians taxpayers money. I hope they have the bottle on polling day. The Jocks will vote to stay in as they need a meal ticket moreso if they gain independence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can't be a gravy train and a meal ticket.
      Either we're a net payer or a net receiver. Not both.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 16, 2016 at 9:28 PM

      Some Scots would consider a meal needs gravy. Chips and gravy. We do not need to be net or gross in regards to the EU we just get out, end of it.

      Delete
    3. (sounds the rambling purple Tory Klaxon)

      Delete
    4. You seem to be on this site more often than James, you sad bastard. Are you assigned just to here? Or do you have such a dull life you just live to come here and make unwelcome Unionist troll wank@r comments to the exclusion of a real life?

      What bit don't you get? This site is really just not for tossers like you.

      Delete
  6. "The 'Jocks' will vote to stay in"...then he goes on to claim Scots are scroungers aka 'need a meal ticket'

    Glasgow Working Class
    My Ass.

    The chaps down the Conservative club will be sitting with their head in their hands at this blunder, by their favourite useful eedjit!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would query the word "useful"

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 17, 2016 at 7:45 PM

      Roden and Anon must be the same idiot. So where are the Tory Clubs? Name them.

      Delete
    3. (sounds the rambling Yoon omnishambles Klaxon)

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 17, 2016 at 8:43 PM

      Wonder if any Nat si Tartan Clubs are being built!

      Delete
    5. (sounds the gibbering red Tory Klaxon)

      Delete
  7. Where is this 'conservative club'? I want to go to it.

    "Hmmmmmm....nyasss, the poor really are extremely trying these days" (puffs on cigar)

    We could also have throat clearing competitions.

    Aldo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are two different ones; one for the inners and one for the outers. Too many arguments developing, so they had to split up.

      :-)

      Delete
  8. I think the Leave camp has a large advantage online which may start to influence public opinion as the referendum day approaches.

    Every single comments section below EU articles on UK media is filled with BritNats ranting against Europe.

    By comparison, many pro-EU voters aren't hugely enthusiastic about it. They tend to think that on balance, it's beneficial to be a member - but that doesn't exactly enthuse supporters to rave about it.

    The fear factor this time comes from the more xenophobic UK nationalists - spreading tales of calamity about being swamped with immigrants, terrorists, and sharia law on the way.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Fascinating. In that pre-budget Yougov poll, half the Tory vote doesn't rate Osborne and doesn't want him as chancellor.

    I wonder why that is? Oh, no I don’t; it’s because he’s pro-EU.

    #split

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 17, 2016 at 9:22 PM

      Skier, at least we have Tories on board who want to leave this corrupt EU unlike the Joke Nat sis who want independence just to give it away.

      Delete
    2. (sounds the Kipper bag carrier Klaxon)

      Delete
  10. Erm, wow. This is record level stuff.

    https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/public-trust-scottish-government-three-times-higher-uk-counterpart

    Public trust in Scottish Government three times higher than in UK counterpart

    Scottish Social Attitudes Survey finds 73 per cent of people trust the Scottish Government, compared with 23 per cent who trust the UK Government.

    Public trust in the Scottish Government is more than three times higher than its UK counterpart, according to the latest Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSA).

    The 2015 SSA survey found that 73 per cent of people in Scotland trust the Scottish Government, the highest level since the Scottish Parliament was established, compared with 23 per cent who trust the UK Government.

    The Scottish Government was also more trusted than the UK Government to make fair decisions, with 49 per cent backing it, compared with 18 per cent for Whitehall..

    ...While roughly equal proportions said the UK and Scottish Governments have the most influence over the way Scotland is run, with 42 per cent for the UK and 41 per cent for the Scottish Government, 76 per cent thought that the Scottish Government should to have the most influence, compared with 14 per cent who chose the UK Government.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Yet 55% of voters voted Naw to Indy??? Beggars belief doesn't it!

      Delete
    2. They certainly, going by these findings, did not do so out of any trust or love for the Union.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 12:01 AM

      Question Time was really biased tonight. A Tartan Tory with a triple barrelled name on the panel and a Jock wummin in the audience asking a question.

      Delete
    4. (sounds the embittered Yoon troll Klaxon)

      Delete
    5. @David Francis.

      Panelbase poll showed that 7/10 either support independence or are not against it in principle, but just need more convincing.

      So, what you said.

      Osborne doing a good job at convincing.

      Delete
    6. It's probably just me, but I find myself checking figures which are 'more than three times higher' and thinking no, they're more than 3 times as high.

      Of course, I'm neither a mathematician nor a scientist.

      It is just me, isn't it.

      Delete
  11. It is the myths that the MSM peddles about the EU that will swing it.

    Like:
    All those those foreigners coming here and claiming benefits.
    NOT TRUE - claim rate is lower for EU workers and our benefits are amongst the lowest in Europe (and getting lower).
    They never mention all the people from here who work and live in Europe? How much do they claim in benefits?

    Red tape from EU Regulation.
    NOT TRUE – the EU does NOT make laws. It issues directives which the member state legislatures either turn into new laws or amend existing laws to comply. For the UK that means Westminster and the London ministries.

    If you want to see some of the misleading stories the press have published and the truth, I recommend ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/blog/index_en.htm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 9:28 PM

      Issues a directive! WE do not need directives from them for anything we are not fuckin impotent slaves. We have our elected representatives. Bin the EU.

      Delete
    2. (sounds the ranting Kipper troll Klaxon)

      Delete
  12. England will vote Leave; Scotland must vote Remain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 8:06 PM

      Scotland would be having a huge deficit if we had voted for petty nationalism. We would be in hawk to the IMF and the Gnomes of Zurich. The NAW vote saved Scotland from bankrupsy. Look what the EU and moreso the Germans inflicted on Greece. Better in the Union and OUT of the EU.

      Delete
    2. (sounds the utterly confused Kipper bag carrier Klaxon)

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 9:21 PM

      Tell you what Anon do not waste your time with braindead comments. I will assume you have made it.

      Delete
    4. (Sounds the ranting Yoon onnishambles Klaxon)

      Delete
  13. Better not in the UK union, but better in the European union with poor wee England shouting outside and nobody listening. Looks like the towel folder will be looking for a new job.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 9:39 PM

      Strange comment for a Yellow Nat si Tory to make. You want nationalism just to hand it to European beaurocrats.
      You would destroy a 300 yr old Union and hand over control of Scotland just because you detest the English. The Union has saved Scotland as a Nation.

      Delete
    2. (Sounds the Daily Mail adherent Klaxon)

      Delete
  14. Ids resigns, the Tories continue to tear themselves apart. Lol.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aye, just cracking open a beer to celebrate.

      This so isn't about IDS suddenly finding he has a heart. It's about...The EU!

      Made my Friday.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 9:56 PM

      The Yellow Tories will eventually tear themselves apart when the Jocks wake up.

      Delete
    3. (sounds the ranting Red Tory Klaxon)

      Delete
  15. Osborne has just been shredded by IDS.

    He will never be Tory Leader/PM.

    Has Duncan-Smith just handed both to his new "Bestie" - Boris?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 10:18 PM

      This could be Good Friday the Nat si Yellow Tories may announce a rise in corporation tax and taxing the better aff. Or will they just take handouts from Westminster!

      Delete
    2. Awwww.......what's the matter, McGibbon?

      Your REAL Party is now using up their supply of fanny-pads faster than anyone could have suspected.

      You could always give them some of yours, though.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 11:04 PM

      Hey you old muppet the Tories are claiming victory for getting permission from the EU to drop VAT on the jam rags.
      And your Nat si Yellow Tory mob are with the the real Tories on cutting corporation tax. The rich getting richer auld yin.

      Delete
    4. You should save a fortune in Boots, pal.

      Delete
  16. Anyone know where I can get more popcorn late at night in the borders?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 18, 2016 at 11:35 PM

      Not on the English side due to the Yellow Nat si Tories.

      Delete
    2. (sounds the nae-show-withoot-Punch Klaxon)

      Delete
  17. There seems to be a new Survation poll of Holyrood VI. The details from Britain Elects are

    ScotParl VI (list): SNP: 42% (-1) CON: 18% (+4) LAB: 18% (-1) GRN: 10% (+1) LDEM: 6% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-1)

    via Survation / 10 - 17 Mar

    ScotParl VI (const.): SNP: 54% (-) LAB: 20% (-1) CON: 16% (-) LDEM: 7% (+2)

    ReplyDelete
  18. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 18, 2016 at 11:48 PM

    Good poll figures for the SNP.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. #UKIPnotbreakingthrougheveninagoodpollsterforUKIP

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 19, 2016 at 12:19 AM

      Sad news for the working classes.

      Delete
    3. (sounds the confused Red Tory Klaxon)

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 19, 2016 at 4:14 PM

      Sounds the Yellow Tory blawhard.

      Delete