Saturday, March 12, 2016

Desperate Dugdale reels in horror as apocalyptic YouGov poll prophesises the end for Scottish Labour

It seems that YouGov are once again ploughing their own furrow - today's new full-scale Scottish poll contradicts much of the narrative from recent TNS, Survation and Ipsos-Mori polls.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 49% (-1)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Labour 19% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 43% (+1)
Conservatives 19% (-1)
Labour 17% (-3)
Greens 8% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (+1)

This is the first poll from any firm since the UK general election to show the SNP slipping below 50% on the constituency ballot, and is in sharp contrast to recent polls conducted by other firms which have shown the SNP vote going back up.  If we believe YouGov, the SNP are now performing just 4% better in the constituencies than they did in the 2011 election - when of course they required at least twelve list seats to win an overall majority.  This once again demonstrates the utter folly of assuming that the SNP are guaranteed to win a majority on constituency seats alone, and that the list vote represents some kind of 'free hit' for pro-independence voters.  It's also somewhat troubling to note that the SNP's list vote continues to be lower than the 44% achieved in 2011 - albeit only slightly.

In a sense, YouGov are in line with other pollsters in showing the Tory vote slipping a little.   But the huge difference is that they're also showing the Labour vote slumping on the list at the same time.  The Labour list vote now stands at a scarcely believable 17%, which beats the all-time record low reported by Survation a few weeks ago.  It's also the first time ever that any firm has shown the Tories ahead of Labour on the list - the famous YouGov poll a month ago had the Tories in second place in the constituencies, but only level-pegging with Labour on the list.  This is particularly grim news for Kezia Dugdale, because Labour are likely to be dependent on the list for the vast majority of seats they win.  So if they finish third in terms of list seats, it's fairly probable they'll finish third in terms of overall seats.  However, two crucial points should be borne in mind.  Firstly, polling for the list has tended to be somewhat less accurate than constituency polling over the years.  Secondly, there is now a very clear divergence between different pollsters - as things stand, all firms other than YouGov are showing Labour still fending off the Tories with a few points to spare.  So if I was gambling man, I'd still be betting with a reasonable amount of confidence on Labour finishing second and the Tories finishing third.

YouGov are also a little different from others in what they are saying about the Greens and UKIP.  Although the last Survation poll had both parties higher than we see today, we tended to discount that because the way Survation ask for regional list voting intentions seems to be more than a little suspect, and tends to flatter the smaller parties.  In any case, there was no sign of a recent boost for either the Greens or UKIP in the Survation poll, which in that sense was very much in line with what Ipsos-Mori and TNS have been showing.  YouGov, by contrast, are now putting UKIP on 4% for the first time since 2014, which puts Farage's delightful mob in contention to nick the odd list seat here or there.  The Greens are up to 8% - the first time that any firm other than Survation has had them that high since last summer.  We'll have to see whether that's the start of a trend or just a freakish one-off finding caused by sampling variation.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Constituency ballot :

SNP 53.2% (-0.2)
Labour 20.4% (n/c)
Conservatives 16.2% (-0.2)
Liberal Democrats 5.4% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 47.6% (+0.2)
Labour 19.0% (-0.6)
Conservatives 15.6% (-0.2)
Greens 6.8% (+0.4)
Liberal Democrats 6.2% (n/c)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have reported Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers over the previous three months, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are five - Panelbase, Survation, YouGov, TNS and Ipsos-Mori. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)

Explanatory note : As a fond tribute to the mainstream media's restrained take on the GERS report, Scot Goes Pop headlines will contain 50% added hysteria for an indefinite period.

119 comments:

  1. Sturgeon's future in question as SNP plunge under 50% share of poll.

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  2. Those numbers in the electoral calculate put SNP at no change on 2011 (69 MSPs). WARNING to anyone thinking that there is a no-lose in voting non-SNP on the regional vote! Beware - this is what the pro-Westminster Managed Dependency side want.

    Cons take 2nd place with 25
    Lab 20
    Green 9
    LibDem 5

    All caveats apply with local variations, but this should be a wake up call. This might be our last best chance to get a stronger SNP pro-Independence Government in Holyrood. (Sorry, but I do not trust the Greens)

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    Replies
    1. I put the figures into Scotland Votes and it suggests that their model may have a bug as it appears to give Aberdeen South to Other, which I can't see on these figures. An Independent got 6% there last time and it looks as if the 7% Other votes in the Constituency VI above have been misallocated just to where an Independent stood last time. Put a CVI figure in for UKIP (even 1%) and it vanishes and the seat stays SNP.

      Scotland Votes also gives the Conservatives six constituency seats (Ayr, Eastwood, Pentlands and the three Border seats). It seems unlikely given the General Election results that they will pick up all these and it may also be that the Lib Dems struggle to keep both Orkney and Shetland (though they might get a list seat in recompense).

      Even with the SV projection though, the SNP only get five regional seats and also picking some of the above constituencies would reduce that number even more. So a regional SNP vote would probably be 'wasted' in most regions. Probably not South Scotland though where four of the Tory(?) six are.

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    2. "the SNP only get five regional seats"

      That's an odd use of the word 'only' - this is, once again, a very useful demonstration of how the SNP can pick up a list seat in the majority of regions even if they are totally dominant on constituency seats.

      Even if it were possible to have magical foreknowledge that an SNP list vote will be wasted in any given region (which it isn't) it is of course still necessary to have reasonable confidence that the party you might switch to tactically is going to reach the de facto threshold for representation in the region. If anything, that's even trickier, given the pollsters' track record of overestimating the Greens on the list.

      Delete
  3. I think the historical differences with yougov are largely down to their panel being overly stacked with English (born) Labour and Tory voters. I still don't get how they can't correct this with targeting; you can only weight out such a problem do much. I'd say this problem is why the always underestimate SNP.

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    1. The targeting thing has always puzzled me too. I suspect it's a technical thing due to the way their system works, meaning they can't target the sample based on too many criteria. Presumably the target groups then become too small to be useable.

      But at least they do compensate for it now, so the final figures in their Scotland only polls should be more accurate. However it does mean that the Scottish sub-sample figures in their GB polls will have too many UK-born but non-Scottish participants and should be treated even more cautiously than the small sample size dictates.

      Incidentally, judging by the tables I link to (and indeed , YouGov appear to not be asking 16 and 17 year-olds in this survey.

      Delete
    2. Oops a line went missing there. The parentheses should have read:

      (and indeed their February poll)

      Delete
    3. I've been on the YouGov list for a number of years, and when the political questions came up I always supported SNP.
      However, in the last three months I haven't received a political questionnaire from YouGov. I still get the ones asking about banks, credit cards, domestic appliances etc, but never any with politics. I'm wondering if YouGov are stacking the deck...

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    4. I'm wondering if YouGov are stacking the deck...

      Almost certainly not. No one gets asked in every poll and most of the polling that YouGov (and other pollsters) do is non-political. They haven't been doing as many Scottish polls as you might expect in the run up to an election - presumably because it's seen as such a foregone conclusion that the people who commission them to poll (such as the Times) don't want to spend money on polling that won't produce any new 'news'. There's been very little movement in the Scotland polls for a year now.

      You would have been asked a lot more a year ago because YouGov were doing at least five political GB polls a week which has now been scaled back to perhaps one a month if that. So now there will only be one or two possible polls per month in which they will ask you how you would vote, rather than 20-30 as would have been the case then.

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    5. They have traditionally weighted in favour of the Labour Party for reasons best known to themselves. If this is true of this poll as well then it is very grim reading for SLAB.

      Delete
  4. I assume these are the Holyrood figures from the YouGov poll (fieldwork 7-9 Mar) which you mentioned at the end of your last post. YouGov haven't got anything up on the archive with the VI figures yet. The weighting data for that poll suggest that YouGov are adjusting their methodology to weight by education (by age and sex) and political attention.

    I suspect these changes may be intended more generally for GB polls. Certainly they attempt to address the problems identified by the various inquiries into what went wrong with polling in May, particularly with there being too many people in the samples with an interest in politics. As well as changing the weighting, YouGov have also been trying to recruit more 'low attention' panellists.

    Whether the same changes will have the desired effect on Scottish polling is another matter. The pollsters were fairly accurate in Scotland for May and turnout for Holyrood will be lower than a year before. If there is a turnout filter on these VIs (YouGov haven't before) that might compensate though. As it happens there doesn't seem to have been much alteration in the figures from a month ago, but the weighting alteration means that they aren't strictly comparable.

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    Replies
    1. That's interesting. Thanks RM.

      Yes, averaged out, polling in Scotland was absolutely bang on in the May 15 GE.

      http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Slide12.jpg

      Yougov themselves overestimated Con and Lab a bit / underestimated SNP as usual, but only within standard MoE.

      Delete
    2. Just to annoy James, I have to point out that his precious 'real world' polls were worst out, both over-estimating the SNP by 4 points. In the final averaging this balanced by the online polls (of which there were many more) being around a point too low. And it was the other way round with Labour, though the online over-estimate was higher there.

      I suspect there were technical reasons for this to do with failure to weight for referendum vote and also maybe 'compliance bias' being higher in phone and face-to-face polling. It makes me suspect that MORI and TNS figures are still similarly out and the current SNP CVI is still around 50% rather than higher (or lower). James is probably right about the Labour vote being too low in this poll and YouGov often seem to over-estimate Scottish Tories, though May could have been a bit skewed by last-minute tactical voting for the Lib Dems.

      However a sample of two non-online polls in May (MORI and TNS) isn't much to go on, (but we then don't have more now really). That said, all the Scotland polls were more accurate than the GB ones in May. London-only ones weren't too bad either which suggests some of the problems were due to different movements between polling regions.

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    3. "I have to point out that his precious 'real world' polls were worst out"

      Oh, absolutely, I've pointed that out myself. But I hope you will now acknowledge that you were completely wrong in what you said a few weeks ago, and that post-referendum 'real world' polls have been absolutely unanimous in showing a Yes lead on independence. The "ICM telephone poll showing a No lead" that you cited didn't exist (you were probably looking at an ICM online poll).

      Delete
  5. Brilliant MSM type article, James. Headline doesn't reflect the analysis or the story.
    Keep it up!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'Scot Goes Pop headlines will contain 50% added hysteria for an indefinite period.'

      Actually it is quite funny. I presume the Times dod not like the data of the poll as it seems buried away in their paper and no screaming headlines. Bless.

      Delete
  6. The Tories are banking on having a very strong campaigning point during the main campaign and TV debates. "No higher taxes for Scotland". This is of course why only income tax was devolved in isolation. An attempt to force the issue of left/right politics instead of who stands up best for Scotland.
    Nicola has pledged to keep the basic rate the same, but nothing about the higher bands. I think it would be a HUGE mistake for Scotland to become known as the most highly taxed part of Britain. It might bring in more revenue in the short term, but it's bad news for long term growth in the economy. Tactically they may have no choice in the short term, but I think most Scots would understand the message that we don't exist in a vacuum and we will gradually lose investment to England. And that far more useful powers are needed.

    Good news is that the yoon vote is split in most seats, but this is still a warning sign that list seats may well be needed to bring up the numbers, especially in areas where the Tories are likely to do best.

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    1. The Tories have been using the 'Lower taxes / no tax rises' campaigning message at elections since the 1950's. It's not exactly been a rip-roaring success in Scotland. The group of people who it resonates with is just rather small. About the level of the Tory vote in fact.

      Delete
    2. This time is different with income tax devolution on the way.
      There is a genuine chance of having higher taxes in Scotland than England.

      The Tory vote is currently low, but that could change. Problem is that those who say they don't mind paying higher taxes is always less than those who actually vote for it.
      And many of those who don't mind paying higher income tax still see the danger in Scotland becoming less competitive than England for business.
      Business here already has natural disadvantages including being further away from major population centres, Europe and international markets.. with higher transport costs etc.

      Delete
    3. So long as people are making money they will moan about their taxes, but pay them regardless - whatever the rate. Where we have an issue is that in some cases a taxpayer may be able to domicile in another part of the UK and pay their taxes to a different authority. They may not be discouraged by the hostile one party state that administers our pocket money.

      Where for example, does the litigious Author pay her taxes? Does she pay them in Scotland? How much of her income is in fact subject to income tax? Will she be happy paying more in Scotland - being a charitable sort - than she would if living in the other bit of the big island? What tax rate would promote decolonisation?

      Delete
  7. If Scottish politics becomes 'Ulsterised', then British Labour could become an irrelevance.

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  8. YuoGov producing good polling figures for the Tories.
    Not exactly a surprise. They are nothing but a Tory front company. So lets bin this and ignore YouGov now and for ever.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have hit nail on head, James needs to smell the coffee.

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    2. Surely they're a Labour front, if anything. Kellner is married to Cathy Ashton.

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  9. Oh deary me! Even UKOK LabGov is putting the boot into saviour of the Union Kez!

    So which Brit Nat Organisation commissioned the poll?

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  10. Glasgow Working Class 2March 12, 2016 at 6:18 PM

    Who would have thought that those who fought the class struggle for decades would have two Tory parties leading in Scotland while a decent girl was marginalised. Thatcher killed socialism who would have thought the Jock Nat sis would idolise her policies.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 12, 2016 at 6:32 PM

      Yes the other Tory, Tony Blair did kill the Labour Party in Scotland.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 12, 2016 at 6:41 PM

      His Iraq policies may have done so however prosperity in Scotland did rise so much so that those who prospered have turned on the poorest in society in self interest and vote for the Nat sis not to be taxed. As I have said previously Scotland is right wing.

      Delete
    3. (points and laughs at the Blairite troll)

      Delete
    4. GWC2 - I say this to insult you. You tell bigger lies than David Dimbleby....

      Delete
    5. GWC 2, Hi nas-ties, give me your address, I'll send you another bootle of Buckfast, should keep you quite for a while.

      Delete
  11. So far I haven't received election leaflets from any of the political parties. Normally with less than two months to go to an election you would expect the SNP to have put at least two leaflet thru my mail box but Nada so far.
    Perhaps they want their Spring Conference out of the way then they will start leafleting door to door, if the SNP don't get a move on it could be Labour or the Conservatives who are first to give me an election leaflet

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    Replies
    1. I have had junk from the Blue Blue Tories. That was weeks ago as well. It has probably ruined any chance of Douglas Ross increasing the Brit Nat vote in Moray. I have seen Tory leaflets littering the bottoms of budgie, canary and parrot cages. Ruthies face is well clattered!

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    2. Must depend on how close the parties strategists expect a given seat to be.

      From memory I've had 3 apiece from SNP and LieDems. The Red and Blue Tories are keeping their head down to let the LieDems present themselves as a Pan-Unionist candidate. The Greens are completely invisible at the moment.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 12, 2016 at 8:12 PM

      Now Andrew it is the Yellow Tories nae hiding behind the SNP Nat sis disguise.
      The way the Nat SS are heading tae the right we will need a social democratic alliance.

      Delete
    4. ANDREW
      You're probably correct, my local MP is Michael Matheson and there must be very few people indeed who would bet against him not retaining his seat.
      He is also well liked and comes across as a genuine regular guy , as Tony Blair would say. I'm a Conservative supporter so obviously he will have to get on with his life without my vote, but it doesn't stop me admiring Michael as a person.

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 12, 2016 at 8:49 PM

      I note Michael Matheson had an Open University education which the progressive Harold Wilson introduced.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 12, 2016 at 9:46 PM

      And funded in part by the taxpayers living in Scotland. As far as I know Scotland wasn't Independent in 1968.

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working Class 2March 12, 2016 at 10:09 PM

      I was a taxpayer and was happy to fund it. What has being born in a certain part of the UK got to do with it Nat si? I thought Scotland was an Independent nation in 1968 and in a Union.

      Delete
    8. (sounds the gibbering Yoon Klaxon)

      Delete
  12. So far 3 activist delivered SNP leaflets and one from Ruthie through the junk mail in Clacks & Dunblane Constituency.

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  13. This Glasgow Working Class 2 character is a right knob!

    He did a written impersonation of a Dundonian talking on another thread, using the word 'ra' for 'the'

    Everyone in Scotland knows that 'ra' is a West Coast/Glasgow, term and is never used by people from the East Coast of Scotland.

    So is he English? Norn Irish? or just One of the new 'recruits' the Tories employed, to disrupt the Nationalist sites they see as a threat?

    Glaswegian/Scottish? ...My Arse!

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 12, 2016 at 11:15 PM

      Knob and arse sum you up everyone in Scotland knows that.

      Delete
    2. GWC 2nd class is a well known Unionist troll on this blog. He is famous{or infamous} for his fake Glasgow pithy patter and room-temperature IQ.Any comments he makes can be confidently disregarded as they are usually rabidly anti-SNP and consist of mainly disjointed and senseless drivel,more so at this time on a Saturday evening when he is normally half-pissed.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 12:24 AM

      Well Nat si you seem not to disregard my comments. Glad you can manage to type one handed while choking the bisbop.

      Delete
    4. How very droll. Nice to see your IQ has dropped to Centigrade levels.

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 12:47 AM

      That was a short sentence did your other hand fall asleep with boredom.

      Delete
    6. (Sounds the insomniac troll Klaxon)

      Delete
  14. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 2:36 AM

    Mein Gott just watching frau Nicola entering the stage to such adolation was like watching a Nuremburg Rally minus Adolf. The Jock Nat sis will be up for invading the Sudetenland soon.

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    Replies
    1. (sounds the Nazi obsessed troll Klaxon)

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working class 2March 13, 2016 at 10:31 AM

      Honk honk zombie yoon alert!

      Marching band, flute bowler hat, zombie top, honk honk!

      Delete
    3. Ah, its a sex fantasy you have weirdy troll.

      I have never - not ever - watched a conference by any of the onanist parties. Have you thought of asking your GP to refer you to a specialist? Free in SNP Scotland. Like eyetests and prescriptions ( two other services you may need to avail yourself of).

      Delete
  15. I directly question the veracity of YouGov polling because it is just too closely connected to the Tory party. Every CEO has been or became an MP for the Tories or at the least a candidate. It was setup by Tory members and funded by Tory donors. What ever Tory policy is they produce a poll stating public support.
    In short they make propaganda. It suits them sometime to tell the truth just so it makes it easier to slip in lies between the truth. You know A and B are true so why question if C is true? The poisoned pill in the spoon full of sugar tactic.
    If it suited them they would prop up Labour in Scotland. But the narative here is the Tory revival in Scotland.

    The SNP could play along make it a vote for Labour lets the Tories in the back. Just as they did against the SNP for decades. But I have a feeling UKIP will burst this inflated Tory dream.

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  16. Wonder how long it will be before the Lib Dems in Scotland realise breaking ranks and backing independence is the only option they have left to avoid their impending extinction?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I suspect it'll take at least one more skelping at the ballot box.

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    2. As a Lib Dem, I highly doubt that will happen. However if the Brexit referendum goes the wrong way you could see some Lib Dems backing independence due to how central the EU is to the party.

      Broadly, if anyone is interested (which I doubt), what's happening in the Lib Dems at the moment is the party is being repositioned as a socially liberal, anti-populist party. The logic being:

      1) None of the other major parties (except the Greens) are willing to call for cannabis to be legalised and other socially liberal policies so this is a way to distinguish ourselves on ideological lines from everyone else. Being in opposition is partly about calling for policies you believe in, but that you know the government will never implement. Legalising cannabis is a classic example: if you press the SNP on it they'll refuse to go there because they don't want to alienate the centre.

      2) In general Europe is coming to be dominated by populist politics (nationalism, anti-immigrant politics, secession movements) rather than centrist, evidence based policy. You might reject the idea the SNP come under that label (I'm saying this for context rather than because I want to argue about it) but whether they do or don't, most people in the Lib Dems see them that way and want to position the party as one that isn't led by appeals to grievance and identity, but sensible policy.

      So for that reason the only way the Lib Dems will move over to backing independence is if one form of populist politics (Euroscepticism) comes into conflict with the other (Scottish nationalism).

      Delete
    3. A rational, considered response, delivered without rancour. Thank you very much for your contribution, Bercy.

      Delete
    4. Bercy, thanks for that insightful reply. I asked the extinction question because I hope for more liberal policies, but I have given up on Westminster's ability to deliver these. The coalition was my only hope and was a massive let down. The AV ref was a joke, and the student fees fiasco was the last straw.

      I am just a bit surprised so few other Lib Dems realise independence is actually the most likely means for Scotland to have a more Liberal minded government.

      Delete
    5. Actually, it would be hard for the lib dems to lose any of their current representation - never mind be rendered 'extinct'. They dropped to the bedrock of their support in 2011, and PR guarantees them the seats they currently are in possession of. They may even gain one.

      Still laughing at the 'extinction' comment though - imagine Jurassic Park becoming Lib Dem Park? :0)

      Aldo

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  17. Another poll predicts Scotland would vote to leave the UK if the UK votes to leave the EU.

    A smaller margin of 52% for ICM compared to 54% and 56% for Panelbase and MORI respectively.

    However, ICM were spectacularly off for the May 2015 GE in Scotland, consistently predicting 43(-7)% SNP and 7(+5)% UKIP for example.

    Which no doubt explains the difference.

    ICM make Yougov look impeccable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 53.3% actually for ICM. 49% Yes / 43% No for Scottish indy in the event of a Brext.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 12:12 PM

      Skier, surely Nat sis should be encouraged to vote for brexit if you think you can win a referendum. In order of importance is it Scottish independence or Europe? Maybe it is a case of who will be your next meal ticket the BOE or the Bundesbank. Hardly any point in being independent if you are to be bankrolled by either!

      Delete
    3. (sounds the Kipper bag carrier Klaxon)

      Delete
  18. doubtful as to whether there will be a brexit-linked Indyref2
    https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/brexit-no-ukexits/

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  19. Encouraging that GWC2 was tuned in to the SNP conference.

    Just shows that even people of low IQ are 'getting into politics' because of Nicola's popularity.

    His 'betters' down at the local Conservative club wouldn't be to pleased if they found out he was going native though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 6:24 PM

      It is always worthwhile listening to political fanatics. Better knowing the enemy and it makes the idiots easier to deal with.

      Delete
    2. (Sounds the gibbering red Tory Klaxon)

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 7:34 PM

      Pardon me Paddy Boy have you been to the Transylvania Station! I drink in the local Legion with veterens.
      I am not aware of any Tory Clubs in Glesga but I am sure if there is they will welcome fellow Tartan Tories. And why not, same politics same policies.

      Delete
    4. (sounds the gibbering red Tory Klaxon)

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 9:18 PM

      Very strange monotonous echo has been appearing on this blog.

      Delete
    6. Have you been talking to yourself again?

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working Class 2March 13, 2016 at 10:10 PM

      Nah yer Nat si bum chum.

      Delete
    8. (sounds the ranting Britnat Klaxon)

      Delete
    9. (also sounds the homophobe Britnat Klaxon)

      Delete
  20. Roger Mexico's comments about the changes in YG weighting methodology are well made. Additionally, they seem to have dropped the weighting by "Newspaper readership" (which always seemed a bizarre attempt to shoehorn the Scottish papers into a London mould.

    Whether their adopting a better methodology results in more accurate numbers than other pollsters? We'll find out in May!

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  21. "I am not aware of any Tory Clubs in Glesga"

    Laughable attempt at writing in a Scottish accent, from 'Glasgow cap doffer'

    Certainly will have earned another pat on the head from his superiors in the Conservative Club.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 14, 2016 at 5:21 PM

      Well Paddy me boy where are those Tory Clubs?

      Delete
    2. (sounds the rambling red Tory Klaxon)

      Delete
  22. SNP sub 50% on both ballots (first time since last Spring / Summer)

    Yes support down to 40% for the first time since before the referendum.

    Something is happening. The worm is turning. Next month we have the manifestos coming out - and quite possibly no mandate sought for a second referendum. Then, in June, we have the EU vote that will, if current polling is to be believed, result in the UK staying in the EU.

    It could be that, within months, what little that remains of the case for independence is demolished and the SNP confined to a mandate-less prison of their own making. And all the while, their support will gradually be ebbing away as the months and years go by.

    Unionism is winning - it's just taking a rather tortuous path to victory.

    Aldo

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    Replies
    1. "Unionism is winning - it's just taking a rather tortuous path to victory."

      You've been on this tortuous path for 300 years and you still haven't won us over. Good luck.

      Delete
    2. Re-read your comment. The union has lasted 300+ years. Perhaps we don't need to win you over - but simply contain you. With the state of the Scottish economy, a NO victory in the bag and SNP support declining, that looks to be an increasingly manageable task.

      Aldo

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    3. All that's happened is the weightings have changed so they now take into account attention paid to politics. So both yes and no are down and don't knows have increased.

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    4. But 'don't knows' would convert to 'no' at a ratio of about 3 to 1. If a referendum were being held tomorrow and a poll came out tonight showing NO 47%, YES 40%, I'd open a bottle of bubbly, breathe a sigh of relief and then sleep like a baby. A Yes supporter would need to still be on their guard if the figures were reversed.

      Aldo

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    5. Aldo reminds me of certain Nats during the referendum: convinced (or at least claiming to be convinced) that victory is inevitable and imminent, despite almost all the evidence pointing the other way.

      Delete
  23. Lol at Aldo,

    The poll I saw recently had Yes down 3% but No down 4%!
    As Rev Stu stated "A good poll for don't knows"

    People are beginning to take notice of the EU vote and will be unsure as to how this would effect Scotland or the UK in the event of the result being Brexit.

    The constantly repeated 'SNP/Independence bubbles burst' by britnat media/commentators, is hilarious and shows a desperation that is telling.

    The unpalatable truth for Unionists is that once people decide that Scotland would be better letting people who live here and are accountable to the people here, make decisions about our nation, they are unlikely to ever go back to Unionism/Ignorance.

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    1. Yes on 40% shows that people are becoming more uncertain about nationalism. Uncertainty favours the status quo.

      What could be more ignorant than cutting yourself off from your neighbours and hurting the process by which wealth is redistributed from rich to poor? It is nationalism that is ignorant and pig headed. Unionism is progressive. Just now, the Scottish government is able to increase spending in certain key areas that would be facing heavy cuts had the Yes vote been 6% higher. Unionism is the progressive choice and the choice of the people of Scotland.

      Aldo

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    2. Net more uncertain about British unionism though.

      Surprising as the poll wasn't a bad one for the Tories; Yougov's new English correction being applied to the Scottish data it seems, boosting them.

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    3. We know from previous referenda that about 60 - 75% of 'uncertains' tend to vote for the status quo on the day in high stakes votes. That means the greater the uncertainty, the greater the likelihood the status quo will triumph. The status quo option can only be negatively affected by greater uncertainty if they are starting from an extremely high point of popularity - much higher than 'NO' currently polls.

      Aldo

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    4. But there's no referendum on the cards right now, so this is a mute point.

      More interesting is the falling faith in the Tories with respect to the economy and them being seen as more divided than Labour, which is quite an achievement.

      A growing problem for Ruth ahead of May certainly.

      What is interesting is that 53-56% back independence if there's a brexit. Now personally I think the chances of a brexit are low. Scots likewise think there's all bit no chance; 23% think it'll be a leave vs 59% who think it'll be a Remain in the latest Comres Scottish subset.

      I wonder what would happen if to support for the status quo within the EU should England vote to leave? As you say, people swing towards the status quo at the last minute. That could take independence (the status quo option) to over 60%.

      Certainly, people I know don't believe the UK will vote leave, however they're very worried about the consequences if it did as the EU union is more important to them than the UK one. This is obviously backed up by recent polling on the matter where the EU is preferred over the UK.

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    5. It isn't really a moot point. The polls refer to a hypothetical situation which I am also referring to hypothetically. We all know there is no referendum in the offing. It doesn't stop people pondering 'what if there were?' though.

      Likewise, I think Brexit is unlikely. Britain has been in the EU since 10 years before I was born and to paraphrase Mark Twain I have not suffered the slightest inconvenience from it. I think most people are the same and will vote to maintain the system they have lived under most or all of their lives. But if there is a Brexit then Scotland's views will depend very much on the renegotiated relationship and what powers return to Holyrood instead of Westminster. We could end up in a better position. Why then would you exchange that in return for Schengen, the Euro, higher taxes and Brussels austerity? I'd rather not see a Brexit. But if there is one, it does not guarantee a separate Scotland.

      Aldo

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    6. Aldo,
      Before you go on trumpeting 'wealth distribution' as a positive case for Scotland staying in the UK, might I suggest you look at the latest article on Wings showing how wealth is really being distributed by Westminster.

      A quick clue...It's not from the rich to the poor...but the other way around.

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    7. It's passing strange that the newspapers most aligned with right-wing politics - the Mail, Telegraph and Express - are also those most vociferously in favour of the Unionist cause. You'd think they would be against such a redistributive, progressive system.

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    8. Glasgow Working Class 2March 14, 2016 at 7:07 PM

      The Nat sis want to cut fuel duty for airlines. More profit for big business. Another Tory policy implemented by the Nat sis,

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    9. (Sounds the ranting Blairite troll Klaxon)

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    10. Glasgow Working Class 2March 14, 2016 at 8:24 PM

      Keaton, the Nat sis are persuing Tory right wing policies and failing to reverse previous Tory policies so the papers you mention would no doubt support the Nat sis in an independent Scotland.

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    11. That doesn't explain why the Mail and the Telegraph are so supportive of the Union, which Aldo claims is a redistributive system.

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  24. Glasgow Working Class 2March 14, 2016 at 7:00 PM

    Anonymous the bigot is now Patrick Roden the bigot. They detest over half the Scottish population for thinking for themselves.

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    1. (sounds the right-wing authoritarian troll Klaxon)

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 14, 2016 at 7:59 PM

      Methinks you are the Troll as you are never up front with a name. But you are clearly a Nat si bigot and hate the majority of Scots. So why not use permanent monika!

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    3. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 14, 2016 at 9:43 PM

      The broken record keeps spouting abuse also hides under an alias too.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 14, 2016 at 9:59 PM

      What abuse?

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    5. GWC2. You should get out campaigning. Polls continue to show a huge 'Remain' vote.

      There's a lot work to be done and very little time!

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    6. Glasgow Working Class 2

      Calls another commenter a troll, because they don't use their own name when commenting!

      Talk about low IQ, lol.

      The masters down at the local Conservative Club, won't be happy at this type of gaffe, it's not what they pay you for!

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    7. Glasgow Working Class 2March 15, 2016 at 1:02 AM

      Paddy you are becoming repetitive and frankly boring. Do get a sense of humour and indulge in politics. Do try and engage as a human! Since when was IQ relevent? I will buy the last few weeks of your Celik season ticket if you are skint, Duh.

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    8. (sounds the honking Yoon troll Klaxon)

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    9. Glasgow Working Class 2March 15, 2016 at 11:46 AM

      Anon, just out of curiosity how did you feel when you knew the Yes Nat sis were going to lose the referendum? Were ye sick tae the stomach and did you cry like a big wean. You must have been scunnered knowing thousands of Scots would keep there jobs in the Yards and in defense jobs etc. The British Army being intact must have really pissed ye aff And thousands keeping their jobs at Faslane must have nearly sent you suicidal!. Go on go on tell.

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    10. Sounds the ranting, rambling, swivel eyed Britnat klaxon

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  25. (sounds the racist homophobic troll Klaxon)

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  26. Oh Dear, GWC2, the term Glaswegians use is Shelic' not Celik.

    The chaps down the Conservative club will be reaching for the Vaseline if you make many more blunders like this,

    Being a Unionist though, I'm sure you wont mind, you practically beg for it in every post.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 15, 2016 at 5:05 PM

      Naw yer wrang it is Sean Connery who says Shelic and he is fae Embra. That Anon really is a bitter fundamentalist German Helmet. Nae wunner we voted Naw.

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    2. (sounds the confused Kipper bagman Klaxon)

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  27. Saw this comment on a wings post but thought it summed up Glasgow Working Class 2 so accurately I had to copy it here.

    Read it GWC2...This is you this is!

    Dr Jim says:

    15 March, 2016 at 2:58 pm


    I spent a long time last night having a look round all the Yoon sites (Yes I know true grit eh)

    Even although I admit bias I tried to absorb some of what they were on about, and I found out something I always suspected but because of my own admitted bias rejected

    On examination of these sites I found the standard of education to be well below Independence supporting sites to such a degree on some so totally moronic as to be positively Neanderthal

    Most of us normal people make spelling mistakes and grammatical errors, sometimes even quite often but I’ve never felt that’s ever detracted much from what folk have to say intellectually

    But on these Yoon sites people are posting the most absurd lies and nonsense and their supporters seem to gobble it up like greedy puppies begging for more
    Nothing is challenged for evidence, everything is agreed with so long as it’s Anti Snp but here’s the funny thing practically none of these sites criticise the Tories for being the root cause of anything

    It seems all these Yoons sites simply accept and ignore the Tories solely to focus all their blind hatred on the SNP even when it’s perfectly obvious to a blind man with a shoe in his face it wasn’t the SNP who kicked him

    In conclusion Yoon logic seems based on nothing more than a baseless hatred of something they just don’t understand and given their inability intellectually or educationally to comprehend or rationalise it’s unfortunately led me to believe and doubt that the FMs desire to help them understand the Independence vision is in jeopardy before it begins

    The other problem is many of them don’t want any assistance in saving themselves and are content in awaiting Darwins natural selection towards extinction

    Don’t know where that came from, sorry
    Jist kinda spewed oot me

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 15, 2016 at 9:51 PM

      To use the word yoon is childish and I suppose is used deliberately and is intentionally derogatory towards others by people who have an opinion you disgagree with. Kind of language used by Nat si and Nazis.
      Darwin was an observer and must have frightened the establishment moreso when they put his body in Westminster Abbey and said he converted to Christianity. What a sad end to a great thinker.
      Darwin was an observer of the species

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    2. (sounds the gibbering Britnat Klaxon)

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    3. "To use the word yoon is childish and I suppose is used deliberately and is intentionally derogatory towards others by people who have an opinion you disgagree with. Kind of language used by Nat si and Nazis."

      Observe, like Darwin would then, this species of Troll, as it ploughs its lonely, counter-productive furrow whilst engaging in its own little survival of the thickest.

      I've always preferred the term Unionazi to Yoon myself anyway. It reminds me that the actual far right sleep in Union Jack pyjamas when it comes to the subject of Scottish Independence.

      Anyway, great stuff, keep it up. I find your impotent rage most pleasing.








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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 16, 2016 at 9:17 PM

      I doubt you have the capability of being pleased. Your previous comment is one of a sad impotent excuse for a so called human who has his head up his erse engulfed in his own excrement.
      Darwin would have recognised your condition.

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    5. (sounds the ranting confused Yoon Klaxon)

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