Wednesday, March 30, 2016

BMG bonanza for Bullingdon bore Boris as new poll puts Leave ahead

Last night saw another potentially significant development in polling for the EU referendum, as the second poll to be conducted since the Brussels atrocity suggested both an outright Leave lead and a swing to Leave.  As far as I can see, it's also the first time a poll from BMG has put Remain behind.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 41% (-3)
Leave 45% (+4)

It's always interesting when a firm produces results outside its previous normal range (as long as there hasn't been any big methodological changes).  In this case, it may not necessarily mean that Leave have made further recent progress, but it certainly increases the chances that the first post-Brussels poll from ICM was leading us astray in suggesting a significant swing to Remain.  It could be that the truth is somewhere in between the two extremes, and that nothing much has changed at all.

Meanwhile, the Guardian have picked up on an analysis by Matt Singh (one of the few people to confidently predict that Conservative support was being significantly understated last year) suggesting that Remain-friendly telephone polls are closer to the truth than Leave-friendly online polls, and that the real state of play is roughly two-thirds of the way towards the telephone side of the divide.  That may or may not be the case, but even if it is, I'm not sure it's quite as important as it sounds, or even as important as it would have been just a few weeks ago.  There's been a fair bit of convergence between telephone and online polls recently, so moving the dial from midway to two-thirds currently makes less than a 1% difference to the Remain lead.

*  *  *

I got into a tetchy Twitter exchange the other night with "Johann Lamont", who I automatically assumed to be a parody or troll account.  It wasn't until quite an advanced stage that it occurred to me to check, and bizarrely, it turned out to be the Johann Lamont who used to be leader of the Scottish Labour party.  You'll be pleased to hear I didn't waste a golden opportunity to get in the standard "genetically programmed" jibe, even though I've always been a little more charitable than most about that gaffe - it seemed to me fairly obvious what she was trying (and spectacularly failing) to say.  Kezia Dugdale got herself into a comparable pickle last night during the STV leaders' debate - she was so fixated on emphasising her opposition to a second independence referendum that she somehow found herself giving one of the stupidest and most offensive answers to a straight question in Scottish political history.  Asked simply whether she would respect an electoral mandate for a second referendum if the voters chose to give one, she flatly replied "No".  Only time will tell whether that response will have an afterlife of "genetic" proportions, but it certainly deserves to.

Taking Dugdale's militant approach last night in combination with Labour's utterly bizarre new campaign video (which presents euphoric highlights of Labour people celebrating with the Tories after the No vote), it's very hard to escape the impression that the party's private polling must be suggesting that the Yes voters they've alienated are not coming back any time soon, and that the only real battleground this year is the rump No-voting Labour support who might now be flirting with other unionist parties.

75 comments:

  1. Does anyone else share my view that Kezia is simply being manipulated by (to quote from another time) 'People in the Shadows' who are feeding her a script and 'sound-bites' with no regard for the immediate impact as they have longer term objectives. These include "allowing" Kez to lead the party through the 2017 debacle that is likely to be the council elections, and subsequently to be replaced by Anas Sarwar?

    The alternative is that Kez is just plain stupid and I'm not entirely convinced that that is the case (despite much evidence to the contrary!)

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  2. I think you are more right than you may think, Anthony. She's being manipulated...with her full cooperation, which doesn't speak much about her wisdom.

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  3. Re Anthony Little;

    Kezia will not say anything unless scripted and ok'd by London.
    the question she answered will have been anticipated by London, carefully considered and an answered given to Kezia prior to the television programme.

    To be honest, I don't think that there is a hidden agenda, e.g. Get Sarwar In. Rather I believe that the Labour Party have decided to take a No referendum stance and this decision will be taken in consultation with the Conservative Party.

    Labour and Conservatives will be working together on this subject. Labour are merely continuing with their programme from the Better Together campaign; to work with their other Tory partners.

    What the Yes campaign is flushing out on a continual basis is the incontrovertible fact that Labour and Tory Parties are one and the same.

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    Replies
    1. If"Get Sarwar In" is a hidden agenda, God help them. SLAB would be even more stupid than I think they are. From what I have seen and heard from Anus Sarwar he is a disaster and not very bright either intellectually or politically. Kez is way ahead of him in all respects. But that only shows how poorly they are served by intelligent beings.

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  4. Did anyone else feel that Kez and Willie had been rehearsing together? Their cross-examinations sounded really fake and rehersed

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  5. Re Mike Lothian

    It wouldn't surprise me if they had been rehearsing because the LibDem, Labour & Conservatives are all representatives of London in Scotland. Tories Together.

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  6. Goodness me folks! You might at least have acknowledged our hosts article before charging off topic.I think the Belgian terror attack will have stoked the determination of those who are already committed one way or the other.I don't know if this poll tells us hit or how it has played with the persuadable so in the middle.

    Now,what about Kezia,eh? She fairly set out her stall last night.Yes supporters can GET STUFFED,she announced to the world.I'm not sure if she's campaigning to be First Minister or Grand Master after last nights debacle.Shes pissed off at Ruth because she clambered aboard the tank first.Hilarious.They have to learn to share their toys.Then they can both drive that tank over the hopes and dreams of half of Scotland.

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  7. Kez had to say "No" to a 2nd Referendum because she's competing for the same working class Orange/Loyalist vote as Ruthie Tank Commander.

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  8. Patrick Harvie said something interesting last night regarding independence:

    "That's not what this election is about".

    So can we assume that the Green manifesto will not contain a commitment to an indyref? This could be important in the event that the Greens are called upon to prop up a nationalist government. I think quite a lot of independence supporters will also be interested to know if the Greens have effectively abandoned indy - making a vote for them useless.

    Was also hilarious to see Sturgeon blame the UK for Scotland's enormous deficit. Nothing to do then with Scotland's sparse population, scattered here there and everywhere - it's hordes of sick and elderly people and druggies and drunks and welfare dependent - it's lack of entrepreneurial spirit - it's political instability. Nope, nothing to do with all of that. "Wastemonster", apparently...

    Aldo

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    Replies
    1. Sturgeon was just saying what the population of the UK thinks. You've seen the latest polls right? Like this hot off the press Yougov:

      Do you approve or disapprove of the [UK] Government's record to date?
      58% Disapprove
      22% Approve

      How do you think the financial situation of your
      household will change over the NEXT 12
      months?
      37% Get Worse
      15% Get Better

      How do you think the UK economy will change over the NEXT 12 months?
      45% Get worse
      12% Get better


      The Tories are a bitter divided party and unfit to rule. No long term economic plan (split down the middle on whether to be in one of the worlds largest free trade blocks for example) with Osborne's ratings in freefall...

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    2. Aldo is completely out of sync with his masters in Westminster. If the SG are making such a Horlicks of the Scottish economy, you would have thought that the Tory majority government would have called the SNP's bluff in Westminster, and allowed them to have FFA, thus putting the SNP's "financial incompetence" on full public display, instead of voting down EVERY SINGLE AMENDMENT that the SNP put forward! Strange that......don't you think?

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    3. What's Labour's economic plan - print money and chuck it out of a helicopter? Or the SNP economic plan - magic oil giro? Yes, both of those are bound to succeed.

      Sturgeon specifically accused the UK government of being responsible for Scotland's deficit. Yet, as Willie Rennie pointed out, you'd need economic growth rates far outstripping those of China in order for an independent Scotland to be able to pay its bills. How far can you realistically go in blaming the UK govt for the mess before you begin to consider the more likely scenario - which is that Scotland has some inherent problems that will always be there and the union helps to alleviate those through subsidies?

      Anon, full fiscal would have damaged the SNP - and Scotland at the same time. Plus poverty tends to breed stupid ideas rather than hindering their spread (think 1930s Germany). The UK govt did the mature thing when it opposed FFA. The 5 million people here are British citizens. They need protection from their government against the mad, the bad and the dangerous.

      Aldo

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    4. "It's (sic) political instability"? Everyone knows the SNP are going to stroll this election, and it doesn't look like there'll be much competition in next year's locals either. What could be more stable than that?

      Also, I didn't watch the debate (boring), but I highly doubt Sturgeon used the term "Wastemonster".

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    5. Political instability relating to Scotland's status as part of the UK and, by extension, Europe.

      Aldo

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    6. So the UK is equally unstable? You may have noticed its own continued EU membership is in question.

      Besides which, I thought you repeatedly state that there is no chance of Scottish independence ever occurring. If that's the case, where's the instability?

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    7. Actually,helicopter money would have been a better idea than giving it to the dirty,rotten Tory bankers in London.

      Delete
    8. calamity cameron the pig pumperMarch 30, 2016 at 2:09 PM

      If wee Wullie Rennie sayz itz troo it must be troo. Derp derp derp.

      Delete
    9. Aldo my dear chap, Scotland doesn't have a deficit. The UK has a deficit. The fact that the UK has a deficit can be laid squarely at the feet of the UK government, as they have full control of macroeconomic policy.

      Now, one can argue that an independent Scotland should (or should not) inherit a portion of that deficit in exchange for certain things, but the fact remains- the deficit is a UK deficit and the responsibility of the UK government.

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    10. "Scotland doesn't have a deficit".

      Nonsense. We spend more than we earn - that's a deficit. It would continue to exist if we left the UK only we wouldn't have the taxes and borrowing power of 65 million people to plug the gap.

      Keaton, it's no secret that the uncertainty over the constitutional question is hurting business. I personally do not believe that independence will happen. But some people are evidently worried about it - and that hurts the Scottish economy thereby hitting our tax take and widening our deficit.

      Aldo

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    11. But the same applies to the UK as a whole, so what constitutional stability does Scotland gain from being in the Union?

      Thank God we have the SNP one-party state to protect us from all this uncertainty. Who knows if Cameron will even still be Prime Minister a year from now?

      Delete
    12. The UK leaving the EU is not the same prospect as Scotland leaving the UK. The UK's a top ten economic power. Scotland on it's own is more like Albania or Greece.

      And if, as is likely, the EU referendum result is to remain in the EU, then that leaves the Scottish National Party as the only threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom - threatening to pull Scotland out of both the UK and possibly Europe as well.

      Aldo

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    13. I just showed you an article claiming that the EU referendum was damaging investment in the UK. What evidence is there that the perceived risk of independence is currently doing the same to Scotland?

      If that is the case, however - if the No result of the indyref hasn't extinguished the instability here - why are you so confident that a Remain result will do it in the UK?

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    14. Go and speak to an estate agent. They will tell you business has fallen / been put on hold due to political uncertainty. Scottish Widows has re registered its HQ in London after hundreds of years based in Scotland. Scottish economic growth has fallen behind that of the rest of the UK. Why would you invest in a country where you think there might be currency uncertainty, a fiscal crisis - perhaps even civil unrest?

      The EU ref is a short campaign on an issue that people do not feel as strongly about. Unless you think that either A) All the Brexiters will vote UKIP or, B) The tory party will split into 2 separate parties (both very unlikely scenarios), then you have to accept that a 'remain' vote will bury the issue for several years.

      Aldo

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    15. Not the Daily Mail or ExpressMarch 30, 2016 at 4:06 PM

      Go and speak to an estate agent.

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    16. John Major's limp and battered bodyMarch 30, 2016 at 4:08 PM

      on an issue that people do not feel as strongly about

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    17. The EU ref is a short campaign on an issue that people do not feel as strongly about. Unless you think that either A) All the Brexiters will vote UKIP or, B) The tory party will split into 2 separate parties (both very unlikely scenarios), then you have to accept that a 'remain' vote will bury the issue for several years.

      The Tories don't need to formally split for instability to reign. You think Brexiteers are just going to suck it up and let the Remainers stay in control of the party and government? Look at the way people talk about Cameron these days on Tory blogs.

      Out of curiosity, three months before the indyref, how likely did you think it was that a No vote would lead to the SNP going from 10% to 95% of Westminster seats?

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    18. Aldo I suggest you read up on modern monetary theory.

      http://www.3spoken.co.uk/2010/04/primer-on-modern-monetary-theory-mmt.html

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  9. Right on cue...
    And hereeessss......Aldo.
    Great post Aldo, we're in awe.

    Regards,

    A "Horde"

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    Replies
    1. He's just trying to deflect attention away from the failing and divided UK government.

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    2. Not so divided. You predicted hellfire and brimstone upon the IDS resignation. Still waiting for it.

      Aldo

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    3. Tory Racist Class 2March 30, 2016 at 2:03 PM

      He's no deflecting anything, he really is that stupid. He's jist another racist tory loon who genuinely believes everything he reads in the Express and Daily Mail.

      Delete
    4. I'm watching Tories doing ever worse in polls; that's what I expected. The public can see the festering wound opening further each day. Add in their collapsing economic credibility...

      Jeez, MORI just found the public rate Jeremy Corbyn higher than David Cameron in terms of performance.

      Where did it all go wrong...

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    5. Tories are back on top in the polls. The last two show a 2 point Conservative lead. Four years out from the election, the fact they have a lead at all speaks volumes.

      I eagerly await your next prediction of doom for the conservatives. You are like one of those southern preachers constantly predicting the end of the world :o)

      TRC2 I don't read the Express, I rarely read the Mail, I am not a racist. I am a tory. As for 'loon', I find this pejorative term of yours relating to mental illness to be hugely offensive. It is clear you are a mentalist.

      Aldo

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    6. Tory Racist Class 2March 30, 2016 at 3:16 PM


      You are like one of those southern preachers constantly predicting the end of the world :o)

      Plus poverty tends to breed stupid ideas rather than hindering their spread (think 1930s Germany).

      You really are an oblivious twat and clearly as thick as a plank. :o)

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    7. Can you explain the contradiction?

      Moreover, can you explain why anyone should have to listen to your adolescent whining? I know it's hard, with the union , the tories, the Queen and all that. But you just have to accept you lost. Now, I have a wee stain on my shoe. I think it is only appropriate that you come round and give them a polish. Losers ought to know their place.

      Aldo

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    8. Racist Tory ClassMarch 30, 2016 at 3:50 PM

      the Queen and all that

      It's the "and all that" that makes it poetry.

      You are the kind of human refuse who shrieks venom and hate about immigrants and scots then pretends it isn't racist. You also happily spread your hatred for the disabled and poor based on your low IQ Daily Mail mentality.

      You are an ignorant tory twat who reinforces every negative stereotype they embody with every post you make on here.

      You are the answer to the question - Why are the tories regarded as a pathetic joke in Scotland?

      So, by all means, keep shrieking. :o)

      Delete
    9. Re-read your post. You are the one who is shrieking. You are doing so because you are beaten and humiliated, out debated and just out performed generally in life, I suspect. Enjoy your continued status as subject of the UK and Her Majesty. Every day you wake up, that will be your reality. Think about it when you're having a shave, eating your breakfast and going to work (if you do work). For all my supposed uselessness and cretinism, I beat you. You live in my country - not the one you would wish to. Let that fact burn into your brain.

      Aldo

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    10. Racist Tory ClassMarch 30, 2016 at 4:11 PM

      You are the one

      = No, you are!!! Yet again.

      Not very bright, are you? :o)

      Delete
  10. Tory Racist Class 2March 30, 2016 at 3:10 PM

    "I don't read the Express, I rarely read the Mail, I am not a racist."

    "Scotland's sparse population, scattered here there and everywhere - it's hordes of sick and elderly people and druggies and drunks and welfare dependent"

    Pure Express and Daily Mail racist stupidity. LOLZ :o)

    "I find this "pejorative term" of yours relating to mental illness to be hugely offensive. It is clear you are a "mentalist"."

    You witless hypocritical twat. LOLZX2

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    Replies
    1. What have I said there about Scotland that isn't true? The truth hurts, I know - but it is the truth.

      Still not understanding the racism accusation. I did not insult Scotland and, even if I had, Scotland is not a 'race'.

      Throw all the insults you like. It doesn't change the fact you are a loser and forced to live every day under my preferred political system. How does that feel?

      (awaits next outpouring of helplessness and desperation... :0)

      Aldo

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    2. Tory Racist ClassMarch 30, 2016 at 3:29 PM

      I did not insult Scotland and, even if I had, Scotland is not a 'race'.

      Throw all the insults you like. It doesn't change the fact you are a loser

      Completely oblivious. It's like watching a chimp shrieking gleefully as it eats it's own shit.

      Delete
    3. Well, you'd know all about that as you are one.

      When you coming round to polish my shoes? Servitude cleans the soul. I may even turn you into a unionist!

      Aldo

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    4. Tory Racist ClassMarch 30, 2016 at 3:58 PM

      Well, you'd know all about that as you are one.

      No, you are!! LOLZ Well debated dumbass.


      All too easy.

      Why on earth do so many on here humour this imbecile when it is self-evidently so absurdly easy to expose him for the thick, racist, foaming at the mouth yoon he so clearly is?

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    5. The shoes are ready TRC. You are welcome round anytime, to fulfil your calling.

      Aldo

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    6. Scotland is not a 'race'

      Totally agreed that there's no such thing as anti-English racism; English are not a race as you say. You need to have a chat to your mate GWC2 about this.

      Delete
  11. Aldo - your glorious Rule Britannia, Land of Hope and Glory, Swing Low Sweet fucking Chariot Union is on it's last breathe. It's finished. The people of Scotland have set a different path and, on present polling, a clearl majority are now set on that path to indy.

    Your fucking Union is a busted flush. It's finished. Only a matter of time now. Get over it, you Tory dimwit.

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    1. ROFL! Oh dear - apparently struck a nerve!

      You know what I see when I look out my window in the morning? The United Kingdom. And when I switch on the telly I often see our Prime Minister, David Cameron. This is the reality. We are UK citizens. We have been for over 300 years. People were given the chance to change it and said no, loud and clear. If 1.4 million votes is a "lion roaring", then 2 million is what - a T Rex?

      We beat you. And now your economic case has been demolished you are going to stay beaten, with the SNP acting as a unionist party in Holyrood. That's the pure, unfurnished, unspun truth - a precious find on this blog.

      So I suggest you re-assess your situation.

      Aldo

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    2. Aldo you're so entertaining! PMSL

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    3. Thank you. All donations are welcome!

      Aldo

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    4. Heathite omnishamblesMarch 30, 2016 at 4:20 PM

      And when I switch on the telly I often see our Prime Minister, David Cameron.

      Very entertaining! PMSL

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 30, 2016 at 9:36 PM

      Dream on Anon.

      Delete
  12. What are the trends for both phone and online EU referendum polling? Can we extrapolate?

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  13. As with our referendum,the London establishment may win the battle but will lose the war.
    The Tory party,whichever way this turns out,will be divided and impossible for a leader to command making getting business through Westminster extremely difficult.
    Cameron,or whoever is left in charge of the Tories,will have to do deals with the Blairites and possibly even our Scottish MPs to get his way in Westminster.
    Trouble at mill.

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  14. Glasgow Working Class 2March 30, 2016 at 9:14 PM

    The Joke Nat sis must be shiting themselves. If the sensibles vote to get out of this EU corrupt institution then where will the Nat sis go for subsidies? Or will they shut up and just take the money from the majority non Jock British taxpayer,
    Looks like options are narrowing.!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://sfi.usc.edu

      A little schooling

      Delete
  15. Please readers. I actively promote this blog. And yet the comments get ever harder to read because they are infested by those two tits GWC and Aldo. Can you all please just ignore the two dummies. Either they are deliberate plants or they have nothing better to do than come here and ruin the threads.

    Has anyone encountered either of them on any other indy friendly site? Are they paid to come here? GWC seems to have this site permanently on, as it comments repeatedly and frequently.

    Please ignore the pair of them. Never reply to them. Ignore them. You cannot convert some people to the true path whatever you say. So leave them to shout at the wind. Pretty please.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 30, 2016 at 10:16 PM

      I get paid ten bob a month by MI 7 to intervene in your superior intellectual arguments.

      Delete
    2. "they have nothing better to do"

      This is basically it.

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    3. If Scottish indy hadn't a chance in hell, Aldo and GWC2 would be down the pub relaxed and happy, chatting with mates, not freaking out on a blog like this.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 30, 2016 at 11:10 PM

      I was down the pub earlier but I am home now and in Glesga. Never thought you would be freaking out! But you are. You really hiv tae get used tae losing at the ballot box...You have to get 1/2 Million tae vote Nat si tae win and tell them the begging bowl tae England is over. You Nat sis are lost in the wilderness because you are not prepared to tell the truth to the very people you want to vote Brexit from the Union. Now do tell the truth and the concequences of Brexit from the UK and you may find you get credibility and maybe win. The Scots may just be prepared to take the economic pain. The paddies did it.



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    5. (Points and laughs)

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  16. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 31, 2016 at 12:30 AM

    Have you not thought of getting some mental help? Just show your posts to the psychiatrist.

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  17. I would imagine that the current crisis with Tata steel will have an effect on people’s voting intentions. I’m not sure which way, though, because anger and concern will be directed at relations with China and India and not necessarily the EU.

    What the Tata crisis will highlight though, is the diminishing profile of the UK in the greater world.

    It’s a sad day when a core industry that was at the heart of historical world prominence sees it’s fate in the hands of the Indians and Chinese. How ironic. Steel built the former Royal Navy, the railways, the Empire.

    And now what?

    The UK cow-towing to the Chinese government.

    Old Prince Philip wheeled out in his toy soldier suit for them.

    The corrupt Saudi’s given the full on Bunting and State visit treatment.

    It’s pitiful how far the UK has fallen in the world.

    And we are supposed to be proud of this? Puffing out our chests with the pride of it all? Sharing in the glory?
    Basking in the shared light of the Chinese President being wined and dined in London while they shaft British Industry?

    And the Unionists wonder why Scots would want to be independent? The UK is going down the toilet.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 31, 2016 at 11:22 AM

      Frau Sturgeon goes to China on Trade Mission July 2015.
      Kim Jung Eck gobshit goes to Iran where trade unionist are shot.
      Both countries have some of the worst human rights on the planest.
      Somehow it is always different when the Nat sis do what others are expected not to do.

      Delete
    2. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-has-sold-56bn-of-military-hardware-to-saudi-arabia-under-david-cameron-research-reveals-a6797861.html

      https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/saudi-arabia

      Pimp them guns. It's the British way.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 31, 2016 at 6:24 PM

      There are around eight Scottish arms manufacturers!
      But Herr Anon I got you on the trade deals so stop acting that the Jocks are innocent and sounding like Go Balls with your Nat si propoganda.

      Delete
    4. https://sfi.usc.edu

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    5. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/blood-money-uk-s-123bn-arms-sales-to-repressive-states-8711794.html

      Delete
  18. The comments part of this blog is now unreadable. Such a shame because there used to be such interesting analyses.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Glasgow Working Class 2March 31, 2016 at 10:39 PM

    So strange you nat sis have gone quiet on this thread!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://sfi.usc.edu

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 1, 2016 at 12:39 AM

      Speak do not post attachments.

      Delete
    3. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

      http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/glasgows-missing-millions-labour-should-look-themselves-not-snp

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