Monday, February 29, 2016

"Leave" campaign narrows the gap to just 6.4% in latest EU referendum Poll of Polls

Happy Leap Day, everyone (or whatever it's called). Obviously I've done the prudent thing today and stayed indoors, because I can't be bothered having to fend off the hordes of women proposing marriage. But the fact that we've made it to the end of February means that there only just over two months to go until the Holyrood election, and less than four months to go until the EU referendum. This may not be a Greek-style referendum campaign that lasts only a week, but it certainly seems pretty truncated when you bear in mind how much is at stake.

There have been a couple of online polls published since I last updated the referendum Poll of Polls. ORB have Leave in a 52-48 lead, which is at the upper end of their normal range for Leave, but on the other hand BMG have Remain in a 3-point lead, which is at the upper end of their (relatively narrow) normal range for Remain. Taking the two together, then, it looks like the changes are probably meaningless margin of error 'noise' - but what we really need is another telephone poll, ideally from Ipsos-Mori, because the last two ComRes polls have suggested Remain's big telephone lead may have slipped, even as the online state of play remained fairly steady.

The gap between Remain and Leave on the headline 50/50 online/telephone average is down to just 6.4%, which is the lowest figure since the Poll of Polls started. That's been caused purely by two Remain-friendly telephone polls from January dropping out of the sample.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 45.9% (n/c)
Leave 39.5% (+0.7)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 41.0% (+1.0)
Leave 41.7% (+1.0)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 50.8% (-1.0)
Leave 37.3% (+0.5)


(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on nine polls - four from ICM, two from YouGov, one from ORB, one from BMG and one from TNS. The telephone average is based on four polls - two from ComRes, one from Ipsos-Mori and one from Survation.)

15 comments:

  1. Watch out for an on-line proposal, James.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 29, 2016 at 7:11 PM

    Never fend aff the fairer sex James.
    Great news the gap is closing and I hope those that vote for the Nat sis will wake up and note there can be no independence in Europe just servitude. We do not want to be a Greek Tragedy.

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    Replies
    1. Boris wants his shoes shined. Git oan wi it, Yoon.

      Delete
  3. I heard Cameron stating,as fact,that this is a once in a generation vote on EU membership.He was elected on a minority of the vote for a fixed term.He has no right to make such a statement.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 29, 2016 at 8:18 PM

      You should engage the brain before opening your trap. Cameron is the PM under the present electoral system your fellow idiot Nat sis are MPS under this system.

      Delete
    2. Yoon will never persuade folk tae yer way ay thinkin by callin them idiots n Nazis. Noo git n iron Nigel's shirt for the morn.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 29, 2016 at 10:21 PM

      Have you considered saying anything that will convince your fellow Nat sis to tax the rich and unfreeze council tax instead of your nonsense posts!

      Delete
    4. Ma case in point.

      Delete
  4. James, did you do a piece on the ipsos poll on nuclear weapons...Feb 6 or so.?

    ReplyDelete
  5. GWC2 has criticized yes voters on the seeming inconsistency between wanting to be independent from Westminster, but still remain within the EU, yet he finds it entirely consistent to want to stay united (and strong?) in the UK, but to leave the relative security of the EU. What a strange person!

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 1, 2016 at 7:35 PM

      I have not criticised them. I am just baffled by the yes mob who want independence then throw it away.

      Delete
  6. Glasgow Working ClassMarch 1, 2016 at 10:29 AM

    Two Holyrood new polls out today. SNP ahead by a couple of miles.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Ye'll hae tae bide ben the hoose til Hogmanay, ma loon!

    ReplyDelete
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