Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Indyref 2 on the cards as earth-shaking EU referendum TELEPHONE poll shows Remain lead collapsing

Before last night, there had only been two online Britain-wide voting intention polls on the EU referendum since David Cameron's failure to secure credible concessions from his European partners - but the swing in favour of "Leave" seen in both was fairly hard to dismiss as a fluke.  The only remaining question was whether the next telephone poll would confirm the trend - and it was impossible to know that for sure, given that telephone polls have been showing such a radically different picture.  As it turned out, last night's ComRes poll was at the upper end of the expectations of the Leave camp, and suggested that - if anything - phone polls may pick up a bigger pro-Leave swing than online polls.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 49% (-5)
Leave 41% (+5)

What this poll reminds me of is the game-changing ICM poll on independence at the very start of 2014, which completely blew apart the previous sense that the indyref outcome was a foregone conclusion.  The Remain campaign's cushion has now gone - if you believe the online polls, they're already behind, and if you believe the latest phone poll they're embroiled in a genuinely competitive contest.  It may be even worse than it looks, because ComRes don't seem to have applied any turnout filter to their headline numbers - and Leave have a clear lead among over-55s, who we know are more likely to turn out to vote than younger people.  If I was in the Remain campaign, I would be mildly terrified at the thought of being so reliant on a humongous 76% to 20% lead among under-25s.  It's hard to believe such an extreme split in opinion will persist as younger voters become more engaged - but even if it does, that age group is the least likely to make it to the polling stations.

The other big warning sign for Remain is that respondents listed the economy as only the joint-third most important issue that will help decide their referendum vote - well behind more Leave-friendly topics such as immigration and "control over Britain's laws".

In the Scottish subsample, Remain have an almost 2-1 lead (59% to 31%), which is another reminder of the near-inevitability that any Britain-wide vote to leave the EU will be coupled with a Scottish vote to Remain - thus triggering a constitutional crisis, and potentially an early second independence referendum.

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Once again, the latest Poll of Polls update somewhat understates the progress made by Leave, because most of the polls taken into account were conducted prior to the unveiling of Cameron's feeble deal.  It's likely that truly up-to-date figures would have Remain only very narrowly ahead on the 50/50 online/telephone average - although even as it is, the gap is down to a precarious 7.2%.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 47.2% (-0.9)
Leave 40.0% (+0.7)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 41.6% (n/c)
Leave 42.3% (-0.3)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 52.7% (-1.8)
Leave 37.7% (+1.7)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on nine polls - four from ICM, two from YouGov, one from Survation, one from BMG and one from ORB. The telephone average is based on three polls - two from ComRes and one from Ipsos-Mori.)

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50 comments:

  1. But still a comfortable lead at 49 - 41. We'll have every political party bar UKIP and a few awkward squad tories campaigning for "in". We'll have captains of industry campaigning for "in". The intellectually challenged will vote "in" incase a Brexit disrupts their summer hols a fortnight after the referendum.

    It's Scottish independence all over again. Lots of talk about 'momentum', followed by a heavy - and entirely predictable - defeat.

    What will be the trigger once Brexit is off the table? Scotland getting gubbed off England in the WC 2018 qualifiers?

    Aldo

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    1. Aye, polls suggesting 56% (MORI + panelbase average) support for Scottish independence in the event of a Brexit would likewise be a 'heavy defeat' for the UK / 'overwhelming victory' for Scottish independence, should that come to pass.

      I think you are right though; Britain 'can't go it alone' and will 'bottle it' at the last minute in the EUref. :-)

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    2. You have been reduced to dealing with hypotheticals: 'if this happens and that happens, then we WILL get independence'. The reality of the NO vote in September 2014 is finally starting to bite. There is no easy and clear path to an early second referendum on independence.

      As for Europe, same arguments apply - why break up a large and successful organisation? If Europe were a country, it would be richer than both China and America. It is best to retain unfettered access to that market. In this respect, there is little difference between the little Englanders and the little Scotlanders - parochial people trying to end a good thing, to the detriment of all concerned.

      Aldo

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    3. Are you thick? The direction of travel in the polls will see Remain in the lead before June. That's the news here. You really think that the country listens to your captains of industry? Everything they have ever said about the consequences for Scotland voting independent has been proven to be lies. The captains of industry have about as much clout in Scotland as Kezia Dugdale and The Daily Record.

      By June, Scotland will vote Remain, and at this rate, the UK as a whole will vote Leave. Just as Scotland doesn't get the government it votes for, it won't get an EU referendum result that it votes for.

      By the way, that 'heavy' defeat? It was 5%, Aldo. That's not heavy in anyones book except the most deluded of British Nationalists. Or else, how could you explain the Vow, the rush of Unionists up to Scotland to lie and beg their way to an arguably, in hindsight, illegitimate No vote? If it was such a predictable defeat, then why the panic and the lies? Away and take yer face for a shite.

      James is right - and I bet your squirming in your chair, my intellectualy challenged Unionist bampot.

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    4. You really think that the country listens to your captains of industry? Everything they have ever said about the consequences for Scotland voting independent has been proven to be lies. The captains of industry have about as much clout in Scotland as Kezia Dugdale and The Daily Record.

      Except their side won. It's pointless to deny the influence that the rich and powerful can exert.

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    5. Keaton, they did win, but they capitulated massively from a circa 30pt lead. The direction of travel (toward a Yes majority) only changed in the last few days, with the scaremongering about pensions, currency, oil, The Vow and all the rest. Not to mention our pals in the Labour party calling up pensioners and telling them they will lose their pensions if they vote Yes. Remember the over 55s Yes/No vote share compared to the rest?

      The rich and powerful may feel they occupy the region of politics where the real authority and influence lies, but the tides are turning in terms of their ability to influence the masses - evident in polls, newspaper circulation numbers, and the results of the last two Scottish elections (and inevitably the one that's coming up as well).

      Does the SNP winning an increased seat count and a second absolute majority in our AMS system seem like a population that's buttoned up the back and subservient to the rich and powerfuls' arbitrary overtures to you?

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    6. Waldo, barring some sort of catastrophe, we will be staying in the EU. The undecided will swing behind the status quo and some of those who are currently Eurosceptic will also do so - ensuring a comfortable majority for 'remain'. It always happens. It happened with AV and it happened with Scottish independence. Momentum is a useless concept when you are climbing a mountain and things in this life rarely behave in a linear fashion.

      I don't recall the NO campaign in the Scottish independence referendum ever being 30 points ahead. I do seem to remember however a poll from late 2006 showing a pro independence majority (51% to 37% I think). You'd think with all the 'momentum' and old folks kicking the bucket in the following 8 years, that 'yes' would have won handsomely. They didn't - which just proves my earlier point about these things not being linear.

      Aldo

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    7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#Results for all your polling needs. You can see high 20s and indeed 30% lead, as I said.

      Also, it DIDN'T happen with independence. You completely ignored what I just said. What happened with independence was a consistent trend towards a Yes majority, until the last couple of weeks of the referendum, where a combination of lying, Project Fear, and The Vow managed to stave off the Yes advance just long enough to win the vote. You would NOT have won the vote had it not been for the campaign of misinformation, scaremongering and lying.

      Comparing the EU vote to the Indy vote is where you're going wrong, because you completely fail to take into account the changed days in politics for typical Scottish people. No longer are we 'in the bag' as Labour might have thought - the electorate is engaged, articulate, and whether you like it or not, not really up for taking any more of your shite.

      Yes is creeping towards a majority on independence, that is undeniable. And in terms of the EU vote, you really underestimate the little Englander mentality that is pushing more and more towards Leave.

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  2. Yeah, the UK is too wee, too poor and too stupid to survive on its own.

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    1. It does have a huge 'black hole'* in its finances.

      (*budget deficit)

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    2. Scotland's is even larger.

      Aldo

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    3. Not according to the unionist media. It says we've no debt.

      http://archive.is/CNkrG

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    4. Oh gawd - you just confused debt and deficit! Three Hail Marys and two Our Fathers for you, skier - to be said while walking barefoot across some chuckies.

      Aldo

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    5. Er, No he didn't Aldo. The deficit can be fixed with a bit of cutting and tax tinkering. The Trillion pound National debt is the black hole. It sucks in interest payments, it is unlikely ever to be repaid, and in an age of Zero inflation/ deflation it isn't disappearing in the usual "inflate away " method so beloved of politicians.

      If you would just do your homework instead of repeating the mush you are fed in Unionist media. We won't have the same spending priorities once we are independent. We will have all of the taxes we raise. We can grow our economy. If you kept all your wages istead of getting pocket money from your mum, but you didn't spend any of it on your mum's hairdo, then you don't get to include your mum's hairdressing bills in your budget. How more simply can I put it?

      Duh!

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    6. I know perfectly well the difference Aldo. It seems you don't though. If Scotland is debt-free as per the pro-UK media reports, then it could happily run a wee deficit based on borrowing if needed. It's when your debt gets huge your deficit becomes a problem, as is the case for the UK.

      When it comes to Scottish independence, Scotland should take the share of any UK debt it actually incurred. Obviously it shouldn't pay for debt taken and spent on the rUK; only debt spent on Scotland. Hell, if my business partner is not running his end of the business well, I'm not responsible for the debt he/she has incurred. If England can't balance the books, the Scotland shouldn't bail them out. Each nation therefore has a share of the UK debt based on what it spent of that debt, not population share.

      As a Tory I'm sure you'd agree; Scotland's debt should be based on what what borrowed money was actually spent in Scotland. We could go back all the way, but I think 1979 would do fine as that's when people voted for devolution, but Westminster overruled the Yes vote.

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  3. Och, I wouldn't worry about large numbers of older folks thinking about leaving the EU. A couple of carefully-timed scare stories about the threat to their pensions will get them back in line pronto - just wait and see. Project Fear 2014 will be repeated. A close result but but the status quo will prevail. There's no more effective threat than to one's pocket!

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    1. Money rules all. Freedom is useless if you are broke.

      Aldo

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    2. How come lots of ex-British third world countries haven't begged to be brought back into UK bosom?

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    3. Skier, if I can go off topic here, what are your thoughts on the latest Wings article on Jan Eichhorn's May 2015 article which uses the SSAS survey to show decreasing feelings of Scottishness?

      You've quoted feeling British as having peaked for those born in 1944 and I'm curious to put the two into context.

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    4. Skier, they more or less have been - Britain's foreign aid budget is huge.

      Aldo

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    5. @Broty boy

      Moreno is a crap measure of identity and should be treated with caution post 2007. It pits one identity against another meaning if you say e.g. 'Scottish not British' they does that not mean you are anti-British/anti-English? In the political climate, people tell porkies.

      The census is our best bet as it's not political and people freely chose what they put down.

      Scottish identity has not been growing; just British identity weakening. It's both a symptom and a cause of why the UK is in trouble.

      Anyway, what does 2015 and 2016 data look like? We are missing the most important info. Seems identity was not asked in 2015 and makes me wonder why...

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    6. @Scottish_Skier

      Thanks for the reply. Good to see suspicions confirmed.

      Delete
  4. It is the case that many people complain about the EU but as we are in will simply vote to stay in.

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  5. I believe England will vote Leave and Scotland will vote Stay. England will drag Scotland out of the EU against Scotland's wishes. IndyRef2 coming soon.

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  6. The best result will be a narrow Stay vote supported and determined by the majority of Scots.
    England's right wing press will go berserk demanding that Scotland be thrown out of their union.
    How dare we have a say in how England votes and determine their future against their will.
    It's not democratic and so on.
    Ho ho ho.

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    1. I would like a Scotland to Stay and UK to Leave as well, but your particular scenario also would have half of Scotland rubbing its hands with glee :)

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    2. I expect that Scotland / Wales / NI swinging it for "in" would be accepted as the UK majority and we would just get on with it. The English people haven't bothered about the West Lothian question or any of that stuff. Most of them continue to see Britain as a single entity.

      Aldo

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    3. That's why they brought in EVEL

      JH

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    4. That's why they brought in EVEL

      JH

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    5. I tend to agree with you.

      If the MSM spread the fact that it was purely the Scottish determination to remain in the EU, which swung a tiny majority of rUK votes to "Leave", back to "Stay" - I think there would be absolutely massive repercussions down south.

      The Anti-Scottish vitriol which was very, very evident in most English newspapers and on TV - particularly SKY - during IndyRef, would pale into insignificance in comparison.

      I honestly believe that a majority of the rUK would wish to scrap the Union with Scotland.

      Fascinating times ahead.

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    6. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 6:52 PM

      There was no anti Scottish vitriol. The Ruk just want equal expenditure for every working class family. Scotland has been favoured and given far more. Any real socialist would want equality.

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    7. LOL!

      Short term memory-loss, McGibbon???

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    8. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 7:59 PM

      And you lost yer long term socialism tae the Nat si Tartan Tories. Splitter.

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    9. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 10:13 PM

      Dud.

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    10. Yes, you are - and so is your Party.

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    11. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 10:36 PM

      Which Party! I am a socialist.

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    12. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 11:24 PM

      Voters now say these days, 'are you a Labour voter? No we are socialists and now vote SNP'

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    13. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 11:49 PM

      The knob is back impersonating. Get a life and speak for yourself. Knob sounds good. Use it.

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    14. EVEL was put together, justifiably, by the Conservative Party. But I don't think your average English person is really that bothered either way. Why would you be bothered, when you make up easily 85% - 90% of a state? If you feel someone has put one over on you then you have ample opportunity to repay them in kind - tenfold. But I don't think a lot of English people even think along those lines, to be honest. The outlook is quite different down there - they aren't steeped in grievance from birth, like us.

      Aldo

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    15. Your grievance does stand out Aldo.

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  7. here are some FAQ amd info about the UK's attitudes to the EU, the EU's attitudes to the UK, referendum outcomes and potential pitfalls https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/02/14/the-british-question-faq/

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  8. Considering the Yookay is in overall charge of the economy and the debt they continually run up is so Humongous Scotland can't be Independent because it's too poor and the Yookay is in overall charge of the economy (See where this is going yet)

    Lets do a vow to split some cash up, OK, everybody agreed? Hold on says the Yookay, we want to negotiate this differently now that we've agreed and vowed and pleaded and promised and opened our hearts with love and affection

    What's the problem says Scotland? Eh, we just don't want to honour any deal at all really says the Yookay so we'll just do what we've done for 300 years, stall for time while we invent the next lie and anyway I'm going on my holidays till fat boy Davie comes back from Europe for the next set of tactical deceptions to employ, until then, we'll say Scotland is unreasonable, that'll buy us a couple of weeks at least, but don't worry Scotland we'll keep saying an agreement can be reached even though we know there already was one, but by then everybody will have forgotten that and just get bored with entire procedure and we win

    Moron economics for the Yoons 1st edition,

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 7:02 PM

      Any idea why the Nat si Tartan Tory ruling class want to sell Scotland out to the EU.

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    2. You're a silly person who's probably just pedantic for the sake of it because no reasonable minded person is that daft
      You enjoy name calling as a sport, which is fun for you and that's OK it can be

      When the use of terms like Natzis in whatever humorous spelling you might like to put it in, are used, that is offensive and it also demonstrates the type of person you are and not to whom you refer

      If you have an argument to make or a counter perspective you should make it but to just use those terms when you don't like something or make up your own facts because you have no real ones is pointless

      As one of the ruling class to whom you refer the only thing I want to sell to the EU is a confident Independent Scotland with control over our own everything, funnily enough just what The Yoons want for the Great British Kingdom Of England which if you had any brains would have realised by now the only part Scotland would ever play in that is the rest of our assets stripped to subsidise the ailing economy that is the South until Scotland is once again EMPTY and back to being an English holiday camp for the wealthy

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    3. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 10:11 PM

      So you want to sell Scotland tae the Germans so they can replace the English grouse shaggers. What a mug and tosser you are. Or do you feel comfortable in the lederhosen. Never trust a Jock in shorts.

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 16, 2016 at 11:20 PM

      My skin gets a bit raw wearing my lederhosen for any length of time though.

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  9. If the polls tighten such that Remain feel the need to ramp up a Project Fear campaign in the final weeks before the EU referendum,where will that leave the Tories in the aftermath of the referendum?

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  10. The battle in the Tory party (and let us not forget that is what this referendum is really about) is between those who see England's parliament as having absolute sovereignty over everything and those in thrall to neoliberal corporatisation whose only interest is the bottom line (their's that is).
    I predict deep and lasting divisions in the nasty party and Cameron is probably getting out of Dodge before the proverbial hits the fan.

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