Monday, February 22, 2016

For the attention of Boris Johnson : your cut-out-and-keep guide to the overwhelming evidence that Scotland will NOT vote in line with the rest of the UK in the EU referendum

I'm getting the slight impression that the outgoing Mayor of London may have read one too many of those endless "Scottish public opinion is basically the same as English public opinion" articles from his mate Fraser Nelson. I can't think of any other explanation for this utterly bizarre claim in his long-awaited Telegraph column last night -

"I also accept there is a risk that a vote to Leave the EU, as it currently stands, will cause fresh tensions in the union between England and Scotland. On the other hand, most of the evidence I have seen suggests that the Scots will vote on roughly the same lines as the English."


Luckily for all of us, the evidence on this subject is publicly available, and to state the bleedin' obvious, "most" of it does not suggest that Scotland is in line with English public opinion. In fact, absolutely all of it suggests the complete opposite.

SCOTLAND : AVERAGE OF LAST THREE ONLINE POLLS

Remain 53.7%
Leave 28.3%

BRITAIN-WIDE : AVERAGE OF LAST THREE ONLINE POLLS

Remain 40.0%
Leave 40.0%

Remain lead in Scotland is 25.4%

Remain lead across Britain is 0.0%

Remain lead in Scotland is 25.4% higher than in Britain as a whole

*  *  *

SCOTLAND : AVERAGE OF LAST THREE TELEPHONE/FACE-TO-FACE POLLS

Remain 57.0%
Leave 23.0%

BRITAIN-WIDE : AVERAGE OF LAST THREE TELEPHONE/FACE-TO-FACE POLLS

Remain 50.3%
Leave 36.7%

Remain lead in Scotland is 34.0%

Remain lead across Britain is 13.6%

Remain lead in Scotland is 20.4% higher than in Britain as a whole

*  *  *

Now, to be fair, full-scale EU referendum polls are conducted less frequently in Scotland than across Britain, so the above numbers aren't directly comparable - some of the Scottish fieldwork is quite a bit older, which might potentially give a distorted impression.  But that's where the Scottish subsamples of Britain-wide polls come in so handy...

Ipsos-Mori telephone poll (13th-16th February) :

Across Britain, the Remain lead was 18%

In Scotland, the Remain lead was 57%

Remain lead in Scotland was 39% higher than in Britain as a whole


*  *  *

TNS online poll (11th-15th February) :

Across Britain, the Leave lead was 3%

In Scotland, the Remain lead was 25%

Remain lead in Scotland was 28% higher than in Britain as a whole

*  *  *

ICM online poll (12th-14th February) :

Across Britain, the Remain lead was 4%

In Scotland, the Remain lead was 19%

Remain lead in Scotland was 15% higher than in Britain as a whole

*  *  *

ComRes telephone poll (11th-14th February) :

Across Britain, the Remain lead was 8%

In Scotland, the Remain lead was 28%

Remain lead in Scotland was 20% higher than in Britain as a whole


*  *  *

On and on it goes. Heaven only knows what "most of the evidence" is showing on Planet Boris, but back here in the real world it's pointing in one direction only. There are two realistic outcomes - either a) Britain will vote to Remain, and Scotland will vote to Remain by a much bigger margin, or b) Britain will vote to Leave, and Scotland will vote to Remain. We all know what the likely consequences of the latter would be.

* * *

Many thanks to the 577 people who voted in this blog's readers' poll yesterday. 87.7% of you want the UK to remain in the EU, while 12.3% of you want to leave. That's almost identical to the result of the previous poll a few months ago (although the Remain lead has grown very slightly).

60 comments:

  1. Well now that I know Boris is backing leave, that's me sold. Rule Britannia! Land of Hope and Glory! Let's build a new Jerusalem, free from johnny foreigner, in this green and pleasant land!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SS

      Another week of this tv coverage and the voters will switch off.

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    2. Aye, going to be a spectacular orgy of British (=English) nationalism. A veritable festival of right-wing Union jack and St George's Cross flag waving.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 11:36 AM

      Skier, you should stick to the real arguments and not the false flag waving. You treat the No side with contempt because the majority voted to stay in. The Nat sis now treat with contempt the Scots that want out of this corrupt mafia EU.
      If we renegotiate and go back to the original EEC agreement I will vote to stay in. We need to get rid of the EU parliament. All we need is a trade commission to oversee fairness.

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    4. The reason Britain has been getting shafted by Brussels is because the English representatives allow them to do so, if Scotland was fairly represented in Europe things would not have turned out this way. The Scottish politicians are better are negotiating a better deal for Scotland and the UK. I will be voting to stay in.

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    5. So to summarise, we're getting shafted because we're badly represented, so you'll vote for that to continue???

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    6. Good point Kirk.... Yet another rational reason for #Indy. Fisheries anyone.

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    7. I'll ask again, Scotland's getting a bad deal from EU, ie fisheries, yet you're going to vote to stay in the EU because it was...er... England's fault?

      Indy Scotland will still just have just 12 MEPs as opposed to 6. So, we'll still have no power, and we'll still be told what to do with OUR fish in OUR waters by other countries.

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    8. Exactly- an independent Scotland would send more representatives to the EU than as present, as part of the UK. Therefore double the influence plus a more consistent policy front- unlike now, where Tory or UKIP English MEPS decide our fate.

      Delete
  2. One more reason to stay in.

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  3. One of the good things that came out of our referendum was the ackowledgement by Westminster that the UK is a political union between our nations and that it is the right of Scots to determine our future constitutional arrangements.
    Only those who deny this reality argue that Scotland does not have this right and justify it by claiming British nationhood.
    If Boris succeeds in getting his out vote,then he will find out whether his claims are correct or not.
    The problem the outers will have if they win the day is that the arguements they deploy against EU union will be the same we will use against interference from London in our affairs.
    What a can of worms Cameron has opened.

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  4. When looking at UK wide 'Remain' leads, it is worth bearing in mind that the Scottish & NI segments of the vote mean that Remain has to achieve approximately 52% of the vote to avoid the 'England Leave / Scotland Remain' scenario. 'Leave' only has to get to about 48% for it to all get really interesting.

    That's 4% of a lead that isn't really there.

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    Replies
    1. Could you explain that a little more clearly, please? I haven't a scooby about what you are trying to say? I'm NOT being sarcastic - I genuinely don't understand what you are saying!

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  5. Does anyone really believe there would be significant implications for the Union between England and Scotland if England voted out but the UK as a whole narrowly voted to remain? I don't think even Farage would support scottish independence if that occurred

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    1. Farage,along with all the other Brit Nats,will never support Scottish independence.
      We belong to them in their minds.
      Should Scottish votes in any way determine the outcome of the referendum,HM press will be in full outrage mode,demanding a re-run which excludes non English/British voters.

      Delete
  6. Sure.

    Polling figures suggest Scotland is going to vote 'Remain' at something like 65% (excluding Don't Knows). Northern Ireland is going to vote 'Remain' at something like 75%. Apparently those figures are reasonably stable, so we shall assume for the purposes of this exercise that these will be the final results.

    This means that in order for there to be an overall 'Leave' result, England will have to vote 'Leave' at a level somewhere above 50% (to counteract the expected Scotland & NI results).

    The issue is that the fun begins the minute England votes over 50% to leave, because this is the point at which the wishes of the two countries differ. Now, it should be now be obvious from the above that the point at which England votes 50% to leave is not the same point at which the UK as a whole votes to leave.

    Calculate in the expected vote shares due to population size, and the magic figure which comes out is roughly 52% of the UK vote has to go to the 'Remain side' before TSHTF.

    So, when the polls talk about, say, a 10 point difference in favour of 'Remain', it's really only a 6 point difference in favour from our perspective. Once the figures fall below 52% remain, we enter the territory where England wants to leave but Scotland (& NI) want to remain.

    I hope that makes it clearer!

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    Replies
    1. I agree with Niall - I don't think a Scottish Remain/English Leave will make any difference unless the UK as a whole votes Leave. There'll be some grumbling in the press, but it won't amount to much.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 7:59 PM

      The EU will be the losers. No British taxpayers money and they cannot stop free trade unless they want war. The EU parliament will surely collapse and best of all the Commission Kinnock and all will go but with their pensions no doubt. Scotland is only showing itself to be a sponging nation supporting this EU corrupt farce.

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    3. Shut yer coupon, Glasgow Working Arse. You'll find the UK imports more than it exports in the EU....Germany is one of the only nations with a trade surplus.... I don't think Europe gives a toss.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 8:42 PM

      Anon, ye cannae beat a trade surplus. Tartan Shoortbreid fur German Brat wurst miitt zwiebell und pomm frites und tomato ketchup. I would sell Scotland for bratkartoffelen. Und a few hundert jihadis fae Syria.

      Delete
    5. This Glasgow Working Class 2 cove is impersonating one of the the the internets most brilliant political philosophers; a soul whose grace and humility touch all most tenderly with the calming milky balm of his sweet reason.


      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 9:08 PM

      Anon, milky balm are you playing with words or yourself!

      Delete
  7. Would Scotland be better off in Europe that is totally right wing, when we are more a socialist country. No I want to leave and I disagree with the idea of a independent Scotland joining the EU. I don't believe a world that comes out of Cameron's mouth. I am glad Boris has come out in support of leave. I heard all this crap during the Scottish referendum from the red and blue Tories.

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  8. What sounds better a German Tory or an English one well in my opinion neither, but better the devil you know.

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    Replies
    1. The German Tory.

      Their country seems to work.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 9:28 PM

      Wee Jim Yung Eck is always making speeches. No one listens.

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    3. Did someone speak? ��

      Delete
  9. And so could Scotland outside the EU. What about VW emissions scandal how's that working.

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  10. Germany showed it true colours during the last days of the referendum. When Alex had to come out and make a speach after Merkel got her Bundesbank to say Scotland's couldn't survive.

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  11. I am Scottish, and will never call myself British or European.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 9:47 PM

      I am British and will never call myself Herman.

      Delete
    2. This one's for GWC:

      <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8VH0sbEU20>Jerusalem</a>

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 10:59 PM

      Skier, this was about the satanic work places. 14hr shifts no fresh air and darkness. A fine bit of music.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 23, 2016 at 12:25 AM

      I am considering calling myself Adolph after my Hero.

      Delete
    5. Is a fine tune. If I was English I'd have it top ranked for an English national anthem, as per the current English parliament bill on this.

      Doesn't bring a tear to my eye any more than the marseillaise does though. In fact the marseillaise is a bit closer to my heart given half my extended family is from those parts.

      Delete
  12. I'm a big fan of Norway, but no fucking way I'll be voting Yes ('leave') to British nationalism in June.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 22, 2016 at 10:30 PM

      Skier, you cannot stomach doing what is right because of ego. Why would you not vote to get rid of the elitist EU commission and the gravy train EU parliament who are all self serving. What have the EU done to get rid of poverty and foodbanks. Search yer conscience. It was not the Greek working class who screwed their economy it was the rich who moved their billions of euros out of Greece. The EU is making the Greek poor pay for the economic collapse. Wake up and lets get oot.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow.Working Class 2February 23, 2016 at 12:23 AM

      Glad to see that the BBC in London have agreed to a 'Scottish 6'. Just hope it is not a Labour Love in now that there is only 1 Labour MP and after May fewer Labour MSP's.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 23, 2016 at 1:19 AM

      So you cannot post with honesty pretend No2. Get a grip and some personal integrity. Any idea why you lost in the referendum?

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    4. Europe couldnt give a fk about Scotland. Seriously.

      You think we're insignificant to London? We're 1% of Europe. 1%.

      The purpose of the EU is to give more clout on the world stage to London Paris and Berlin. Don't be fooled by the save the world crap. Fair play to them but we will become even more of a hand-out junkie region and forgotten economic backwater than we already are. They'd treat us like the PIGS states. And no amount of well intentioned left wing legislation will compensate for that.

      The only way Scotland can get back on its feet is to get control over our own economy and set up our own trading arrangements that suit our own industries better, just like every other small developed country in the world.

      Delete
    5. Still not voting for British nationalism.

      I'll give an iScotland's position in the EU due consideration when the time comes. For the moment, on balance, I'm in.

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    6. Ive also got a feeling that once everyone sees the UK managing fine ex-EU, more Scots will realise how much BS we have swallowed from the media, the politicans and the corporate heads spout when it comes down to matters of nationality. They are only interested in their own issues.

      I think a brexit would give some of the soft No's a bit more confidence that we don't have to listen to the supermarkets, the newspapers, the Scottish bloody Widows etc. We can make these decisions for ourselves.

      Delete
    7. I m strongly for being in Europe and creating a stronger European state Eg same corporate tax bands in every nation and EU wide laws to counter corporate tax avoidance. That said, you make a good point below about an exit from EU could eventually help influence more Scots not to fear leaving UK behind too.

      Delete
  13. Looking at the Scottish polling data, I think GWC needs to get out doorstepping for Leave pronto. Going to get gubbed otherwise, and that'll be the matter 'settled for a generation'.

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  14. From our common experience in the UK, most English people seem to believe that they live in a big country and don’t need to cooperate with anyone else; while most Scots realise that we are a small country and need to work with others to make our lives better. Maybe that is at the root of the difference captured in the polls.
    Why exchange the UK for the EU ? Because we would be treated with respect : as an independent country with rights set down in a Treaty, with a voice and votes to go with it, and with a veto over important things, a Court to rule on disputes. What we devolve to the EU or not would be our decision. How we would cooperate with England and the other parts of the British Isles would be our decision. No longer ‘granted’ by Westminster.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aye, we would e.g. take our turn for Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Currently the Netherlands with wee 'minnow' Croatia up next. 'Piddly little' Latvia and Luxembourg previously.

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  15. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 23, 2016 at 11:21 AM

    Scotland would be treated with the same respect as Greece. We would be a totally insignificant little piece of glaciation controlled by the German bankers and doing their bidding. Strange that you nat sis who want indepence want to give it away.
    And before I laugh pray tell what our currency would be and would our pensions be safe like the Greeks! Go on geeze merr lies��

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Check the polls GWC; you are totally failing to convince people.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 23, 2016 at 12:38 PM

      You Nat si spongers are such racists. Selling out to Herman and the frogs.

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    3. Herman and the Frogs? You hate my French wife too I guess?

      Who's the racist?

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 23, 2016 at 7:58 PM

      I am not racist are you? You nat sis want to cut yourselves of from England for no good reason. Maybe you should look in the mirror.

      Delete
  16. Kirsty Warking ClassFebruary 23, 2016 at 11:58 AM

    Judged purely as a piece of music, ye cannae beat the old Soviet anthem:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BulFwGSi8bc

    Much better than GSTQ or FoS.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 23, 2016 at 8:05 PM

      I am sure the Gulag prisoners just loved it. A nice start to the day before being worked to death.

      Delete
  17. I think the key thing to emphasise this point is we need to turn out in large numbers and vote remain.

    Although with that said, if you really want to do justice to this topic in terms of a proper analysis (rather than just making a political campaigning point) you have to look at more than just referendum voting intention. There's a lot of political science research that shows people take their cues from political parties on issues like the EU (an issue that isn't usually of very high salience and where there's a dearth of public understanding). Attitudes rather than voting intention are more reliable ways of measuring whether there is a real split, rather than just a temporary split caused by current party politics.

    Certainly if you go back through the years the gap between Scotland and England on this issue has varied quite significantly. In 1975 England backed staying in by a 37% margin, Scotland backed staying in by a 17% margin.

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  18. In order to be consistent, I am sure that all the pro-EU, pro-independence supporters here are as outraged by today's 'big business' letter in support of remaining in the EU as they were about the similar letter supporting Scotland remaining in the UK in 2014?

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    Replies
    1. I think such things harmed the No vote in the Scottish referendum. Will likely do the same thing for Remain in this case, giving Leave (and Scottish independence) a boost.

      http://www.scotsman.com/news/matt-qvortrup-bp-boss-could-boost-yes-camp-1-3295791

      That voters vote against the positions taken by the captains of industry is so common that it almost amounts to a sociological law. American political scientists have developed a theory that suggests that voters in referendums base their decisions on “cues” or “information short-cuts”. Voters do not have an encyclopaedic knowledge of the issues, nor have they got time to study the small print of policy documents. But they know who they trust and who they distrust. And the individuals the voters trust are not the rich and powerful.

      So I wasn't outraged then and I'm not now. Consistent if you like.

      Delete
  19. Glasgow Working Class 2February 24, 2016 at 1:49 AM

    The people voted for the EEC and trade agreement. We now have a political elite sponging aff the taxpayer and telling them what is good for them.

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  20. I am fed up about Scotland wanting to leave the uk. As an Englishman If they want to leave let them go. Our nuclear subs can come to uk giving thousands of jobs.

    ReplyDelete