Friday, February 12, 2016

EU referendum : "Leave" campaign storms into the lead in average of online polls

So far, there have been two Britain-wide polls on the EU referendum since Cameron's failure to secure credible concessions, and both have shown leads for the "Leave" campaign that are clearly outside the normal range. YouGov had "Leave" a full nine points ahead, and although the lead with ICM was a wafer-thin single point, that's still highly significant, because ICM have previously always had "Remain" ahead. (Although the main focus has been on the huge divergence between telephone and online polls, it shouldn't be overlooked that there is also a mini-divide between online firms, with ICM tending to be slightly more Remain-friendly than YouGov.) It's possible that this is just a wild coincidence, but the more likely explanation is that voters have reacted badly to the proposed deal, and that there has been a genuine swing to "Leave". However, we could really do with a telephone poll to confirm that.

The movement has been enough to push "Leave", for the first time, into a slight lead in the online average of the Poll of Polls - although that may well underestimate the true strength of the Outers, because most of the polls in the sample were conducted before the details of the deal emerged.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 48.1% (-0.3)
Leave 39.3% (+0.3)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 41.6% (-0.7)
Leave 42.6% (+0.7)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 54.5% (n/c)
Leave 36.0% (n/c)


(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on ten polls - four from ICM, two from YouGov, one from Survation, one from Panelbase, one from BMG and one from ORB. The telephone average is based on one poll from ComRes and one from Ipsos-Mori.)

39 comments:

  1. I'll be astonished if the EU referendum doesn't ultimately return a result of Leave.

    The majority of newspapers lustily tap into the little Englander, EU bad, anti-foreigner sentiment which resonates greatly in England.

    The longer the campaign, the more the rabid invective will increase I fear.

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  2. The funny thing is that England leaving the EU is the most probable trigger for a united states of Europe. Since I'm a federalist, I'd be very happy with this outcome. Remember that Yes Minister skit about why the UK joined the EEC.

    England could find itself as a plaything between the USA and USE.
    Scotland will have an opportunity to choose its future separately from England.

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  3. Yes minister is still on point. All the time. Stunning.

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  4. This vote will be close and could be interesting in what the regional votes are like. I heard a rumor some time ago that there wouldn't be separate indications of voting in different parts of the UK. Does anyone have any idea if this is so?

    If no separate poll is taken, how will England, Wales, Scotland, and NI show their preferences?

    On balance I think it is in Scotland's interests to remain a full member. The participation of the UK in the EU over the last 30 years does NOT give true reflection of the benefits that being an active member can have. Thatcher's rebate deal meant that BILLIONS of EU grants were lost to the UK in regional infrastructure projects. Imagine a fully dual carriaged A9 for example? Or improved rail system?

    Of course the EU needs to improve its internal democracy, but we can't do that be being on the outside and having to contribute 75% of our current fiscal bill and having NO real say in the 'rules' of the game.

    There really is NO way to have our cake and eat it.

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    1. To the best of my knowledge, the stuff about there being no regional breakdown is a complete myth. Scotland is certainly going to be one of twelve distinct counting regions, so the idea that the result will be kept secret seems a bit fantastical. I would imagine there'll be a proper announcement, probably even at local authority level.

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    2. Thanks James. I couldn't see how there wouldn't be "regional" results, but given the absence of an exit poll in the most important constitutional vote in the 300+ year history of the UK I was prepared to believe anything.

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  5. Given that one of the biggest preoccupations of leave is immigration, am I the only one who finds the phrase leave to remain ironic ?

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  6. It seems the biggest disaster for the YES stay in is the PM


    walofs

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  7. Small I know but don't forget Scotland's pro percentage. Could make a difference to the overall stay percentage in the UK wide polling. So leave might be further ahead in England than we think.

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  8. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 12, 2016 at 11:47 PM

    Looks like the Brits are awakening from their docile slumber. Time tae get oot of this political beaurocratic gravy train. I will not campaign for Labour to stay in. How on Earth the Joike Jocks who want independence want to be run by Bruxelles and Frankfurt is mind boggling.

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    1. What a phenomenal brainfart. Very sub-Spanneresque.

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    2. Hate to say it. But GWC is right. There is nothing to be gained from independence that we won't lose by being part of an ever closer union.

      Scotland's economy has become a basket case within the UK. Independent controls over our economy to create trade advantages, increase exports, is the only way to create more wealth. But the EU's mission is to centralise economic control. With limited economic controls to offset our limited influence and geographical isolation, we'll simply be living on handouts, as a much smaller fish in a much bigger pond.

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    3. That's a pretty basic interpretation of Scotland's position in the EU upon independence. Scotland is currently part of the EU within the so called UK. The powers that currently reside in Brussels would remain as-is but the powers that reside in Westminster would come to Holyrood. No additional powers would be ceded to Brussels upon Scottish independence, only what is currently in place would remain so this statement of "why leave the UK to hand power to Brussels" is ridiculous as Scotlandwould be in an identical position within the EU but have full autonomy from Westminster. That is an incredible net gain.

      FWIW, I'll be voting to leave the EU but this assertion that Scotland will take power from Westminster only to give to Brussels is utter wilfull ignorance.

      Mandela

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    4. I'll maybe vote for Scotland to leave the EU in the future. That will be a decision I'd make for an independent Scotland. For the coming English referendum on the EU which Scotland is being forced into (only England voted to hold a referendum), I'll be voting for Scotland to remain firmly in the EU. If England suddenly became super pro-EU, I could well change mind and vote leave. :-)

      I'm certainly not going to vote for the Tories / UKIP / pro-UK by voting 'Leave' in the English EUref.

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  9. I'll be voting Stay not because I like the EU but because I believe Engand will vote Leave.

    First things first: independence. Everything else, EU NATO etc can wait.

    SNP x 2

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  10. Calm down folks. The UK will not vote to leave the EU. It may be close, but as in 2014, the last minute bottlers will swing it back to the status quo.

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    1. Maybe. But I think leaving the EU seems like (and probably is) a less major change than leaving the UK, which will reduce the bottler factor.

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  11. WeSaidNoToYesMen :-)February 13, 2016 at 2:45 PM

    You always used to big up the polls of the splitters for the independence ref too.... :-)

    BETTER TOGETHER - UK AND EU

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    1. Do you mean I pointed out that the Yes campaign were making major gains? Yes, I did. And I was right.

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  12. There seems to be a deliberate strategy from fatty Blair and his yoon legion online where they all argue that Yes voters should vote out in order to cause a new referendum.

    Which is exactly the opposite of what would be the casue of a new referendum, Scotland voting to stay and being dragged out by the english.

    For a master (bating) strategist he really is quite obvious sometimes.

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    1. Spot on. Anything that accentuates the differences between Scotland and England is good.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 13, 2016 at 6:51 PM

      There is no difference between the English and Scottish working classes except a very short distance. Petty Scottish Nationalism will only lead to a one party state which is only good for the minority rich property and landowning classes.

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    3. The Scottish parliamentary voting system was contrived by Labour and Donald Dewar in particular to prevent any possibility of a Nationalist majority in Holyrood. Unfortunately for Labour and the rest of the Unionist parties,The electorate cottoned on to their sheer incompetence and slavish devotion to Westminster. If there is a semblance of a one-party state in Holyrood it is not the fault of the electorate,it is the fault of the other parties for failing to listen to the majority of the people.

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 13, 2016 at 10:12 PM

      The system was devised to give minorities and the majority a voice. Donald Dewar was always in favour of a Scottish Parliament. There was no conspiracy. You are an erse and falsify the truth. The trouble is with you Nat sis like the Nazis is you make it up for your cause. Real scumbags you are.

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    5. The system was devised to keep Labour in power.Fortunately,it has backfired spectacularly in Labours face.

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    6. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 14, 2016 at 7:47 PM

      So who devised it and why did the Nat si Tartan Tories agree to it?

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  13. It would be brilliant to see England a nation of of ofline spoon whitlers. And Scotland prosper in the EU.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 13, 2016 at 10:16 PM

      So how would you trade with the EU without access through England its ports and the Tunnel. Would you extend the Finnieston Rotunda tae France? Think before you write, knob.

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    2. Yes we will have to dig a big tunnel. Ireland manage to trade fine so they must have a big tunnel too. Actually maybe we could T into their tunnel?

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    3. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 14, 2016 at 1:35 AM

      That is because the English allow them to pass through their British territory.
      The English are a nice lot. You hate them sad Nat si.

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    4. I can't really see England managing to bully Scotland with a blockade when Scotland will have the full backing of the other 26 member states of the EU. In any case, England's roads are an overcrowded mess and we should bypass them anyway. The forth to Zeebrugge link was a good idea but it needed more resources. An English blockade would be just fine to encourage that. Not to mention improved air routes. Now of course if the English did make life hard they'd have to pay more for transatlantic flights as they would have to go the longer way around.

      The funny thing I see from unionists is that the think that the English are a nasty lot. I prefer to think that they will be reasonable and treat us well - just as we will treat them. Still it helps to think it through.

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    5. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 14, 2016 at 4:55 PM

      It was Scotland that wanted the Union to have freedom to English markets and this has been very successful. Why spoil a good thing just to please the English haters.

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    6. Cos as better together told us, bigger is better. The EU market is several times bigger than the UK market. Our 18th century forbears would appreciate the choice of EU over UK.

      You are just a little brit nas-si aren't you. Why do you hate Germans and the French so much?
      So why spoil a good thing with the EU just to please the German haters?

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  14. here are a few FAQ about Brexit, views from Europe and some potential outcomes and pitfalls https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/02/14/the-british-question-faq/

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  15. what a shit article

    no explaination of what the figures say, a headline which is at complete odds with the actual figures quoted

    more convinced by the day that james Kelly is a unionist stooge


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