So far, there have been two Britain-wide polls on the EU referendum since Cameron's failure to secure credible concessions, and both have shown leads for the "Leave" campaign that are clearly outside the normal range. YouGov had "Leave" a full nine points ahead, and although the lead with ICM was a wafer-thin single point, that's still highly significant, because ICM have previously always had "Remain" ahead. (Although the main focus has been on the huge divergence between telephone and online polls, it shouldn't be overlooked that there is also a mini-divide between online firms, with ICM tending to be slightly more Remain-friendly than YouGov.) It's possible that this is just a wild coincidence, but the more likely explanation is that voters have reacted badly to the proposed deal, and that there has been a genuine swing to "Leave". However, we could really do with a telephone poll to confirm that.
The movement has been enough to push "Leave", for the first time, into a slight lead in the online average of the Poll of Polls - although that may well underestimate the true strength of the Outers, because most of the polls in the sample were conducted before the details of the deal emerged.
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 48.1% (-0.3)
Leave 39.3% (+0.3)
ONLINE AVERAGE :
Remain 41.6% (-0.7)
Leave 42.6% (+0.7)
TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 54.5% (n/c)
Leave 36.0% (n/c)
(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on ten polls - four from ICM, two from YouGov, one from Survation, one from Panelbase, one from BMG and one from ORB. The telephone average is based on one poll from ComRes and one from Ipsos-Mori.)