Saturday, January 9, 2016

SNP's mammoth lead increases further in Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls

I had some technological problems before Christmas, and wasn't able to update this blog's Poll of Polls for the Holyrood election when the most recent TNS poll came out.  So I sat down to do it today, and suddenly realised that the rules I decided upon a few months ago are coming back to haunt me.  I said that only pollsters that have conducted at least one poll within the last three months would be taken into account (that was to prevent a repeat of the situation during the indyref when an ancient Angus Reid poll was left in the sample for almost a year), and that now means Panelbase and Survation will have to drop out, because neither have carried out a (published) voting intention poll since September.  The trend figures will therefore become somewhat less meaningful, but I may as well stick with the original plan.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 53.0% (+0.2)
Labour 20.7% (-1.3)
Conservatives 16.3% (+0.9)
Liberal Democrats 5.3% (-0.3)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 48.3% (+1.7)
Labour 19.7% (-1.7)
Conservatives 15.7% (+0.9)
Greens 7.3% (+0.3)
Liberal Democrats 5.7% (-0.3)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have reported Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers over the previous three months, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are three - YouGov, TNS and Ipsos-Mori. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)

The Tories' moderately good showing can be explained by two factors : a) YouGov are a Tory-friendly pollster in Scottish terms and make up a bigger portion of the sample than usual, and b) the Tories did unusually well in the most recent Ipsos-Mori poll, which may well be a freakish finding because other firms haven't shown a similar increase.  Even with these advantages, though, Ruth Davidson's mob still find themselves several points behind Labour, so the right-wing media are probably deluding themselves with their belief that Labour can be displaced as the leading opposition party.

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Alex Massie in the Spectator -

"Everyone loves Ruth Davidson. No one will vote for her."

Not for the first time in his life, he's half-right.

19 comments:

  1. Ruth Davidson has got to be the most overrated and overhyped politician in Scotland. She can't even scrape together enough Tories in Scotland's largest city to get herself elected, even under a reasonably proportional electoral system. Hence the rather undignified chicken run to the Lothians.

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    1. Exactly less than 2000 voted for her the last time. How does she get all these positive headlines? She is doing worse than the man in drag Goldie.

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  2. She was handpicked by Cameron because she seemed modern and would do well on TV - hence the likes of Massie are desperate to big her up. In practice however I'm not sure what they mean by saying that she 'had a good referendum'. How important was she in practice to the referendum outcome? Did she motivate more No voters to turn out, or did she only reach voters who would have turned out anyway? In practice Alistair Darling and latterly Gordon Brown won the referendum for the No side - Davidson's presence alongside them probably worked out to the long-term disadvantage of the Unionist parties as a bloc.

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    1. Sorry Niall she was picked for her sexual preferences this was to try and show the modern side of conservatism

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  3. This is a great position for the SNP to be in. However, at no point can we take any vote for granted. Every vote has to be worked for and earned.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 9, 2016 at 9:55 PM

      It is about what they do when in power. The Scottish rich are getting richer the foodbanks are increasing. So what is the purpose of the Nat sis other than helping the rich get richer! Giving a few bob tae the flood victims is a gimmick the insurance companies are responsible for this,

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    2. ...and yet another Nazi smear from the troll. You're as tedious as you are predictable. Had government funds not been made available to those affected by the floods, you'd be on here shrieking about government hard-heartedness.

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  4. I am not a member of any political Party, and in my seven decades have voted for three different Parties.
    What I think is, if you are you lean toward one particular point of view, then you are most receptive to that point of view.
    Hence partisan journalists lean toward Davidson, as she is of the same belief as those journalists. Scotsman, some Herald, Times, Telegraph, Mail etc, etc,.......,

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    1. Gavin, the problem is that no-one discusses her realistically. It is the same with every Scottish Tory leader. Davidson does not have much in the way of her own politics. Compare her to Heseltine or Ken Clarke for example.

      The thing about Davidson that bugs me is that if Nigel Farage became Tory leader tomorrow there is a good chance he could count on the Scottish Conservative support as well as support from the likes of Massie and Torrance. They'd support all sorts of bizarre policies designed to malign Scots specifically if the Tories were the ones implementing them.

      It is quite remarkable that even with this press support she is still polling less than the Tories under McLetchie.

      We will find out in May if Davidson can turn her bizarrely large support in the press into actual votes. Alex Salmond certainly managed it.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 9, 2016 at 10:28 PM

      Pricks vote for Salmund Davidison may find that hard.

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  5. GWC I don't think Davidson is looking for any hard pricks.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 10, 2016 at 12:05 PM

      Something battery charged perhaps.

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    2. You truly are a nasty piece of work.

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  6. Where is the Rise vote?? I think we need more of Fraser Stewart, Ian Dunn and Darren McGarvey, etc pish and see where it leads us

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  7. how are they helping the rich getting richer? They haven't had much in the way if fiscal powers until recently. If they increase taxation at higher rate they must do so at lower rate. What are your suggestions?

    Insurance?? My boss has just been told by insurance company that flooding was 'act of god' (all ins policies have that clause) & they're not paying out

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  8. Could we only rate SNP no.1 and not rate the other parties by leaving the voting paper blank when voting for the list candidate ?

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    1. The list vote isn't a second preference. The vast majority of people vote for the same party on both votes.

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  9. SNP a bit low there - 53 / 48? That wont give them many MSPs on top of their current number.

    Greens would have a strong showing at 7%. However, the liberal democrats seem a bit low - as always. They got 7.6% in the GE. I don't expect that vote would go anywhere else. So, lib dems a bit higher, greens a bit lower.

    Overall, as you were. No great SNP demolition job. It could never happen under PR anyway.

    Aldo

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