Thursday, January 28, 2016

Panelbase hints that the gap between Holyrood and Westminster voting intentions no longer exists

It's been brought to my attention that deep within the Panelbase datasets there seems to be the equivalent of a full-scale Scottish poll of Westminster voting intentions.  It's presented as the subsample of a GB-wide poll, but it's derived from a proper-sized sample, so assuming it's been correctly weighted, the numbers can be regarded as credible.  With Don't Knows excluded, they appear to be -

SNP 50%
Labour 21%
Conservatives 19%
Liberal Democrats 5%
UKIP 2%
Greens 2%

Nothing desperately surprising there, you might think (except for the Tories' unusually good showing), but what's interesting is that the traditional gap between Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions seems to have vanished in a puff of smoke.  If this result turns out to be typical, Labour can't blame their low-20s showing in recent Scottish Parliament polls on "the Holyrood factor" - they seem to have genuinely lost even more support since last May.  By the same token, anyone who has been thinking "the SNP got 50% for Westminster, so they're bound to do even better this year" is probably barking up the wrong tree.

The most important reason for the traditional gap was of course that some voters didn't think the SNP were relevant in a Westminster election.  That no longer applies, so it's perfectly logical that the gap has gone.

19 comments:

  1. I had noticed the convergence of the Holyrood and Westminster samples and polls. Cannot see this changing in the next 3 or 4 months.

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    1. I think that convergence was always on the cards. There seemed to be a time lag between WM and Holyrood VIs, possibly as indpendence-minded Labour voters slowly gave up the habit of a lifetime and crossed the Rubicon. This process has been underway for many years but the referendum speeded things up a fair bit.

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  2. This is just common sense, given the new drivers in Scottish politics. You can see the disgraceful willingness of Scottish Labour/Tories to try to force Scotland into a bad fiscal settlement, rather than have to rewrite their manifesto commitments.

    However its also worth mentioning the censorship of the SNP role at Westminster by our colonial broadcaster, BBC Scotland.

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  3. After today's attack on Dr Phillipa Whitford by Scottish Labour and the Daily Mail, it wouldn't surprise me if support for Labour falls even further.

    We're witnessing an extremely nasty sort of politics from Labour in Scotland, if you could even call it politics. Frankly, it just looks like the sort of bone-deep hatred you normally expect to find in right-wing extremist groups.

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  4. Gavin,

    You rarely see any coverage of the SNP MP's outwith PMQ. I doubt if many tune into the Parliamentary Channel and I have been quite impressed by the Westminster Group. One of the best being Dr Phillipa Whitford, usually silence from other parties when she speaks as she is respected by all sides of the H o C.

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  5. I suggest that 'unusually good showing' for Tories results from the return to the Conservative fold by those Blairites who drifted across to Labour as it became a lighter shade of pink who are now returning to their natural home as they find the new leadership (at Westminster) unpalatable.

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  6. Scottish Labour have clearly been in denial since 2007. They thought the Holyrood election of that year was a fluke victory for the SNP, that they would regain what they regard as their rightful place as Scotland's biggest party in 2011.

    Then the SNP got their landslide victory, and there was going to be a referendum on independence. But SLAB were in denial even after 2011, they consoled themselves by arguing that they still had the overwhelming number of Scottish MPs in their number, which was true of course.

    But that did not eventually withstand their extraordinary decision to align themselves with the Tories in BT, just when the Tories were the largest party again at Westminster, and effectively running the British state. Coupled with the rising support for independence from 2012-2014, and the eventual 45 per cent Yes vote, the masterful stroke of Salmond resigning the next day and handing the baton to Nicola Sturgeon, meant SLAB were well on their way to losing almost all of their MPs. The membership surge in the SNP after the referendum, and Sturgeon's brilliant performance at the 2015 general election sealed their fate.

    It appears that Scottish Labour think their revival can be brought about by upping their SNP Bad mantra, colluding with the Tories over the Scotland Bill, and joining in the smearing of SNP MPs with the likes of the Daily Mail...Either that or they know they are completely fucked in Scotland, and do not care anymore.

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  7. O/t. I would love to see a re-run of clip showing Iain Greys face when he realised that the SNP had won an overall majority in 2011.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 29, 2016 at 12:21 AM

      A look at the Nat si despair on losing the referendum gives me comfort along with the Hootsmen and Wummin that voted NAW. You lost accept it and move on or emigrate.


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    2. You finished delivering the Tank Commander's leaflets yet? You know it makes sense - the Labour man said so.

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    3. Go play with yourself elsewhere, Onanist troll.

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  8. GWC

    ... oh! we are moving on 'troll', to an Independent Country and I would suggest that you'll be the wan tae emigrate .... aff tae yer GSTQ, Empire delusions, Bon Voyage .... missing you already.

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  9. If the Tories do move into second place, will Labour argue a vote for Labour (under FPTP is) a vote for the Tories? You know letting the Tories in by the back door etc?

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  10. Aye.It confirms what has been increasingly obvious.

    UKIP on 2%? With the EU referendum starting to heat up I find this interesting.It looks like we are going to see all the other parties,bar some dissidents,supporting Remain.If we have a bitter rerun of Project Fear resulting in a 57:43 victory for Remain,can we assume that the defeated 45 will just accept it and get back into line with their usual parties in time for the next general election? What if they don't?

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    1. That should,of course,read "the defeated 43%".

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    2. Then we'll have 43% of the country calling themselves "ra 43" and all voting UKIP.

      Somewhat unlikely however. In most of Britain, peoples' politics aren't determined by a single issue. That only applies to Scotland.

      Aldo

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    3. Nice to see you get an IRA smear in there quisling scummaggot.

      How's life in your big house at Cramond my big nosed plagiarist?

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  11. I suppose conservative unionism is technically two issues; although Ruth seems keen to make it primarily a single issue, i.e. unionism.

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