Monday, December 21, 2015

Despair for Dugdale as SNP soar to 34% lead on the Holyrood list in tumultuous TNS poll

It's been a long time since we've had a full-scale Scottish Parliament poll.  The most recent one was the Ipsos-Mori phone poll which completed its fieldwork in mid-November, and showed a slight drop in the SNP lead.  Since then, one or two of our unionist friends (naming no names, but Aldo) have got carried away with the odd glimmer of hope in subsamples and a local council by-election in Blantyre (I know, I know), and convinced themselves that there are finally signs that Labour are closing the gap.  I fear that today's new TNS poll is going to be something of a hammerblow for them. 

Constituency ballot :

SNP 58% (n/c)
Labour 21% (-3)
Conservatives 12% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 4% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 54% (+2)
Labour 20% (-5)
Conservatives 12% (+1)
Greens 9% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-1)
UKIP 1% (-1)

A poll from TNS isn't the ideal way of breaking a long drought, because the firm's face-to-face fieldwork takes place over a period of weeks, and is always somewhat out-of-date by the time we see the numbers.  So there's still a theoretical possibility that there's been a very recent change in fortunes that this poll was unable to detect.  However, many of the interviews took place after the closure of the Forth Road Bridge (the latest in a long line of supposed turning-points for the unionist parties), and there's no sign of that having had any negative effect on the SNP's standing.  The Natalie McGarry controversy is also partly factored in.

As you may recall, the SNP scored 60% or higher on the constituency ballot in the first three monthly TNS polls after the general election.  They've been consistently below 60% since the late summer, so it looks like there was some genuine slippage after the post-May hoo-ha died down a little.  But it seems that the position has stabilised in recent months - the further drop to 56% in September now looks very much like a blip caused by normal sampling variation.  Weirdly, the SNP's 54% on the list ballot is a joint post-election high - it equals what they had when they were on 62% in the constituencies, and betters what they had when they were on 60% in the constituencies.  I can't think of any obvious explanation for that, unless SNP supporters are simply coming to the view that they don't want to split their two votes.  But, even now, almost half of the Greens' 9% support on the list is coming from people who plan to vote SNP on the constituency ballot.

There's no doubt that this poll will give the Greens a lot of heart after a string of disappointing findings for them (only Survation have offered them any comfort in recent months).  However, until their apparent bounce-back is confirmed by other polls, there remains the possibility that it's just an extreme example of margin-of-error noise.  And I'd certainly advise people to pay only limited heed to the excitement on Twitter about the Greens' 24% share of the list vote in Lothian, which is based on a regional subsample of just 85 people.

The biggest story of this poll is that Labour's mini-recovery since the spring seems to have been completely wiped out.  They were consistently on 23-25% of the list vote in the last three TNS polls, which was a few points higher than their showing in the early post-election polls.  But all of a sudden, they seem to be practically back to square one -  20% is just 1% higher than what they had in the May TNS poll.  Again, though, that may be a sampling blip - we'll just have to wait and see.

No such comfort for the Tories, who find themselves languishing on a dismal 12% of the constituency vote for a fifth consecutive month - that's 2-3% lower than they managed in the first two post-election TNS polls.  The pollsters are divided on whether or not the Tories are in a competitive race for second place, but if TNS are even vaguely close to being right, a few right-wing commentators are going to have egg on their faces after their recent musings about how their favourite party must be in line for a long-overdue breakthrough because Ruth Davidson is just so funny, so ballsy, and...ooooh, so smashing!

Irritatingly, TNS are still offering their respondents the SSP as an option, rather than RISE.  However, given that the SSP have once again scored a big fat zero on the list (or strictly speaking 0.2%), and given that RISE enjoy weaker brand awareness than the SSP, there is no particular reason to suspect that RISE would have registered any support in this poll.

There's more grim news for those who adhere to the Kenny Farquharson/Fraser Nelson worldview that Scottish public opinion is near-enough identical to English public opinion (once you strip away the inconvenient fact that the two countries keep voting for different parties).  One of the supplementary questions in the poll is about Britain's nuclear weapons, and the percentage of respondents who say that Trident should not be renewed significantly exceeds the percentage who say it should be.  (29% support renewal, 38% don't).  That's the opposite of what we know to be true about English public opinion on Trident, and it's a finding that should be taken very seriously, because this is not an online poll with a sample that is potentially skewed by having too many politically aware people - it's a 'real world' poll with a sample found by knocking on people's doors.

105 comments:

  1. James - just brilliant.

    Just wait until the #FRB is open again - early!

    Is there no limit to how high the SNP vote can go?

    Good to see Greens high on list too - that will be another few less Unionist MSPs as well.

    Saw the Lothian list Poll and Greens ahead of the three Tory parties. Truely amazing considering the little coverage they get.

    Onwards and Upwards.

    Yeee Haaw!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oops - just noticed - should have said "and Greens ahead of the three Tory parties" - combined!

      Ha, Ha, Ha - really funny - the end of Red Morningside.

      Delete
    2. Yup, the FRB will be open to cars and other light vehicles from 6am tomorrow.

      Delete
  2. Hee Hee hee. Sorry, rude to laugh.....Ahhahaha!

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is the news i like to hear when I am eating my cereal.

    ReplyDelete
  4. RED IS DEAD AND SCOTLAND IS BETTER FOR IT.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Wondering how there is n/c on all three of the other const parties mentioned but -3 for Slab?

    Free lunch?

    ReplyDelete
  6. SNP 67% in the 16 to 54 year old group

    ReplyDelete
  7. Where is the Saddo Glasgow Working Class? It must be ecstatic with Labour AKA The Red Tories performance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He is ironing his sash.

      Delete
    2. He has changed his name to Belfast Working Class - he is emigrating soon.

      Delete
  8. Oh dear back to the drawing board for Bird and Co. All that SNP bad guff just isn't working it seems.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They don't have the intelligence or experience to change tack. It's all they know. One trick donkeys.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  9. Labour,yet again,have more than all the other unionist parties combined.Theyre still the major force in unionist politics.Libdems look increasingly like a fringe regional party.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, I did think of headlining this post "Mighty Labour only drop 5%, and with a stunning 20% of the vote are yet again the dominant force in unionist politics", but I was afraid that people might question my sanity.

      Delete
    2. I've been in no doubt about your sanity since discovering your penchant for Eurovision! Yep,being the biggest unionist party in this and other polls will be small comfort for Labour,especially when they look at the tables.Their support in the youngest age groups puts them borderline fringe party status.

      Delete
    3. This is why I don't think too much of the chances of the Tories becoming the seconds largest party in Holyrood. There hasn't really been any evidence of the Tories doing anything other than standing still. The only straws that the Tories have been able to clutch are a few relatively favourable subsamples of UK-wide polls.

      Not that this makes things any less grim for us in the Labour Party.

      Delete
  10. UKIP vote collapsed by half in a month. Carswell was right; Farage must go.

    :-)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Wonder what the unionist media will try now. Katie posh English Grant who lives in Harry Potter land with Jk. Was rubbing her hands in glee at the Bridge problems in Sunday politics.

    She thought she had finally nailed the SNP. Oh dear Katie back to the Daily Hate for you. Must try harder!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The bridge thing was probably the most mind numbingly stupid thing I've ever heard.

      Do people really believe someone might e.g. go from an independence supporting left-winger to solid pro-union Tory because of an unforeseen crack in an ageing bridge that the SNP are building a replacement for?

      Jesus wept.

      Delete
    2. In case JK Plagiarist ever visits (we know she does) can I just say Get it right up ye! All your millions donated for anti_Scottish propaganda are being well spent.

      On a more serious point. She has just flat out lied and denied that Hermione Grainger was ever described as being white in order to support the PC vomit casting of a black woman in the new play. Which raises a serious question. Did she even write the sodding books given that she doesn't seem to know what is in them?

      Hermione goes on holiday and comes back brown becasue she has a Sun tan. Her white face is spotted peeking out from behind a tree. She blushes pink when being complimented by Ron. And she was depicted as white in the illustrations and films when JK bigot had absolute control over what was produced.

      It does explain a lot about her and her batshit mentalist SNP BAAAD activity on the internet. Being called, "Mother," and, "my Queen," by millions of acolytes seems to have driven her even further into an alternative Universe.

      Delete
  12. I suggest the SNP send a couple of MISSIONARIES to BLANTYRE.

    ReplyDelete
  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To correct a sticky caps button on some computers?

      Delete
  14. The Liberal Democrats don't appear to have been much affected (positively or negatively) by the Carmichael affair, though that might have a strongly regional effect not being picked up by these polls.

    I wonder how much churn their was between Lab - SNP - Green? It's notable that Labour haven't lost many votes to their right, as the right-wing press might have expected. If they are losing votes to the SNP and Greens it does suggest that the main driver of a lot of what is going on is national identity/ desire for more decisions to be taken in Scotland rather than the respective placing of the parties along a left-right spectrum.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Face to face? Conducted over several weeks?

    Pray tell, when the pollster went out to conduct his surveys, did he travel by horse and cart?

    Did he require a chaperone for when he interviewed the young maidens?

    This poll is worse than useless - and you don't need me to tell you why!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know how you feel after that comment, Aldo, but I'm embarrassed for you.

      Delete
    2. Aye, could be underestimating SNP / overestimating Labour a tad:

      TNS 2015 UKGE pre-election averages (4 polls, late Jan to Mid April):
      48% SNP
      27% Lab
      14% Con
      5% Lib

      :-)

      Delete
    3. If a shy unionist factor has emerged in Scotland, conducting face to face polls isthe worst way you could possibly go about collecting information on voting intentions.

      TNS are out of kilter with other polling agencies.

      Delete
    4. James, you are a nationalist. The wee hormone that allows your brain to feel embarrassment has long since ran out.

      Delete
    5. TNS polling is anonymous Aldo. They just door chap to sample. The interviewer has no idea what the respondent answers on the TNS computer (CATI) survey; that's explained the moment the door is opened.

      Telephone polling is not anonymous as you have to give your answers to the person on the end of the phone. MORI got the SNP on 50% recently which is a little low, suggesting maybe shy SNP/indy?

      :-)

      Delete
    6. We discussed this a while back. The personal interaction with another human being may be enough to make people clam up, even if assurances are given.

      Your MORI telephone poll could be shy unionist - with the SNP actually on 40 or 45%. Let's face it, shy SNP-indy? Who ever heard of such a thing? If only they could be humble.

      No - the shyness factor, if it exists (and I believe it must) applies to unionists, not nationalists.

      Not that it matters. Polls at the same point in the electoral cycle last time showed Iain Gray taking the nation by storm. In the UK election, all indications were a geek-sep coalition / alliance.

      This far out, a heavy pinch of salt must be taken.

      Delete
    7. Aldo, if all you've got left is unconvincing amateur psychology and bogus historical comparisons, things are looking pretty grim for you.

      Delete
    8. I was just thinking back to TNS and MORI showing huge leads for No in the iref, then suddenly converging with more anonymous online in the last few weeks as images of big Yes gatherings on the streets hit the news etc.

      Polls in the end were accurate though. They said No had haemorrhaged a lot of support but would hold on and that's what happened.

      ----

      58% SNP / 12% Con.

      Christmas has come a few days early :-)

      Delete
    9. Nothing amateur about it. When I was fifteen I was made, along with a bunch of other people, to complete a computer survey on "health and sexuality" at school. We were assured privacy and anonymity but we all made big claims about our sexual experiences - despite most of us having never touched a woman since we were breastfeeding (myself included). So people are always inclined to bullsh1t in surveys - especially if you have a person saying to you "I wont look, honest....".

      The historical comparisons aren't bogus.They happened. The electorate is given to big swings in the last months before an election. It has happened countless times all over the world. It put George W Bush into office. It gave John Major his second term. It gave us the con-dem coalition, destroyed Iain Gray and gave Cameron another shot when all seemed lost.

      Never underestimate the potential for the public to suddenly change their minds. After all, half of them are women!

      Delete
    10. You suspect another SNP surge ahead of May?

      I think that's a bit 'out there', but with them getting sat ratings hitting 7/10 it's possible. Sat ratings were a far better early indicator of the 2011 result for example. SNP were well comfortable on this 2007 on, even though they were battling with Labour on VI and seemingly well behind going into the campaign.

      Delete
    11. Are you now Glasgow Working Class or the Minister for sour grapes?

      Delete
    12. I think people will take a long hard look at the SNP and seriously think about where they want the country to go. This will inevitably pull some people back from the SNP and associated parties. If the TNS poll is overly generous to SNP (and I suspect it is), then real SNP support is around high forties / fifty percent. Should that fall much further, it puts them in real danger of losing their majority.

      Another SNP government means another 5 years of constitutional deadlock and another 5 years of making enemies out of our friends - in Scotland and in the rest of the UK

      Delete
    13. (Continued)

      If that's what people want - they can vote for it. Alternatively they can clip the SNP's wings. People may decide about March time that continuing on the path of actively stoking civil unrest is unwise.

      Don't count your chickens.

      Delete
    14. Oh for the love of God, Aldo, can you seriously not comprehend that it's possible for something to have happened and yet still be a bogus comparison? It's not the event that's bogus, it's your comparison.

      Delete
    15. I don't see why. Political weather changes very quickly. That's all I'm saying. You obviously hope that it does not, in this case - but what you want in this life and what you actually get aren't necessarily the same.

      Delete
    16. Aldo, I think you should make this your party piece:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zEqfle758M

      ;-)

      Delete
    17. "but what you want in this life and what you actually get aren't necessarily the same."

      Well, quite. You're hoping for an electoral miracle, and you're highly unlikely to get it. I know that's an unwelcome message, but you'd be wise to heed it all the same.

      "Nothing amateur about it."

      In other words : "I'm projecting the way I once felt onto other people AND THAT MAKES ME A PROFESSIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST."

      Delete
  16. Out of interest, I was telephone polled by Opinium last week. Full set of Scottish politics questions, no Westminster ones.

    Couldn't tell me who client was....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Survation have done a string of Scottish phone polls recently that never saw the light of day, so clearly some private polling isn't being done on the cheap. Which parties have the money to spare, I wonder?

      Delete
  17. I don't really see any reason why the Tories should be 3% down on what they actually polled at the GE

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does your mammy know you're oot?

      Delete
    2. The poll has them within 1% of the last GE in 2011. Suggests static at best.

      Delete
    3. Aye,but it's putting them at 12% when they got nearly 15% in the election in May.I can't really think why a fifth of their voters in May would be saying they'll not vote for them come the Holyrood election.The Tories,since May,have done pretty much what everyone expects of a Tory government.I'm pretty sure those who voted Tory last May will always have voted Tory.They support hounding of the poor.They support Trident and bombing foreigners.So what have the Tories done to piss off a fifth of their Scottish vote? Why would some of them fancy a Tory government at Westminster but not vote for them at a Holyrood election? I think it's a question interesting enough to be debated here.

      Delete
    4. aside from the tally residing around the margin of error, there is also the fluffy factor. Every time he opens his mouth it is a bonus

      Delete
    5. The Tories (and others) keep telling us that the Second Referendum cannot happen. I wouldn't be surprised if this gets the SNP a few votes from Tories who prefer a fiscally sensible SNP government to a wasteful Labour embarrassment at Holyrood.

      Repeatedly telling the electorate that Indy is off the table might not be a very useful tactic for Loyalists.

      Delete
  18. Out of interest, I was telephone polled by Opinium last week. Full set of Scottish politics questions, no Westminster ones.

    Couldn't tell me who client was....

    ReplyDelete
  19. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 21, 2015 at 11:09 PM

    Going by all those polls it is mathematically possible I could be First Meenster. But I doubt the Jocks are ready for socialism. Who would have thought the land of the Red Clydeside would vote in Tartan Tories and they do not know it. But the education system is less than desirable amongst the working classes and the Nat sis will ensure this continues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The education system is in intensive care and flatlining with the little heart monitor going "bleep bleep!". Nobody gives a flying passionate embrace though. Educational standards? Pah! The great unwashed are only concerned with their bank balances and, possibly, the x factor (for the thicker ones).

      Delete
    2. The heart monitor making a continuous "bleep", actually, come to think of it.

      Delete
  20. Aldo.... Civil unrest!...he is a card. Lay down Cameron and unsock your feet so I can caress your feet.

    Aldo forgets his imperial masters are currently bombing the crap out of Syria,supplying arms to Saudi and threatening to leave Europe. There is no escape hatch for the terminally deluded sycophant.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 21, 2015 at 11:34 PM

      We are not attached to Europe there is a Sea and Channel. And why do you Nat sis wish to prostrate my country to the German Frankfurt Bank? I thought you wished independence and self determination. Do you wish a Greek Tragedy on Scotland? Or do you want the British pound. What the fook do you want ? Who do you want to bail you out?

      Delete
    2. Bombing the crap out of Syria? Hardly. No bombs dropped in a week. Of those that have been dropped, no civilian casualties - only ISIS rapist bastard scum who deserve to be hanged slowly rather than ended in a single, massive explosion. We are being lenient.

      You are stoking civil unrest. The othering of England, the constant blaming of Westminster - even for things that are the SNP's fault. You've got to call a spade a spade. The SNP are destabilising a stable country - encouraging civil unrest. You need to be stopped. It's as simple as that, really.

      Delete
    3. Cameron is to be admired. His overall majority renders the separatists, socialists and pacifists impotent. He saved Britain from those who would destroy it. Truly a great premier - up there with Thatcher, Attlee and Churchill.

      History will judge him well.

      Delete
    4. Air strikes on us?

      Delete
    5. Did Thatcher, Atlee and Churchill Shag Dead Pigs as well?

      Delete
    6. He didn't shag it. He just out his penis in it for a split second. There was no orgasm.

      Delete
    7. Air strikes on the SNP?

      Ahhh!!!! We can but hope!

      Delete
    8. To shag something you need to be aroused. Who could be aroused by a pig?

      Uh oh! I've just spotted a flaw in my logic.

      Salmond's wife / granny.

      Delete
    9. James, I have been reading your blog with interest for some time, particularly because of the informative content and insights into the dynamics of the political machinations which occur. Unfortunately it would appear that your services are a victim of its own success primarily because there are recent 'commentators', such as these who immediately above who appear to have mistakenly logged on thinking that your blog is not dissimilar to Guido's red top carry on type blog. Either that or some 13 year old are up late due to the Xmas school break. James, I really do feel for you. This aside, many thanks for the continual insights into political reality, and thank you to those immediately above for reminding me that I am educated.

      Delete
    10. Also needs reminding that the serious social unrest has already happened in England under Cameron. Don't you remember when England's cities burned and the incompetent idiots in downing Street dithered?

      Cameron will go down as an unimpressive PM. Tactically good but strategically useless. Fiddling as Rome burns. He's one of the best assets that the SNP have - annoying Tory but weak and ignorant.

      Delete
  21. Aldo.....who are you talking to, exactly?

    Who do you think, in Scotland, is listening to a poor, wee, lonely Tory like you?

    You have your derisory, miniscule 12 - 14%, son.

    That's it.

    On here, you are just a slight imbecilic, little annoyance - so shout and stamp your wee clogs as much as you wish, it will change absolutely nothing up here.

    Your beloved Tories are merely a laughing-stock now - that is their natural place in the order things Scottish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They run the country.

      Based on that, I think I win! :0)

      Delete
    2. Really - if they "run" Scotland, why do you blame the SNP for "running Scotland badly"?

      As I said previously, imbecilic.

      Delete
    3. Because they've made a complete arse of the limited areas available for them to control, that's why.

      Scotland has two governments - but only one is competent.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 22, 2015 at 1:24 AM

      David . The Tartan Tories are doing the Tory Job. And you are part of it.

      Delete
    5. Aldo you win but it's only temporary. Your useless allies in Scottish Labour are drowning and hopefully the Tories will overtake them as the true voice of British nationalism.
      The disconnect between Scotland and the rest of Britain is getting more pronounced - just make sure that you're on the last helicopter out of morningside.
      Short of a major war, it looks like the UK is on the wrong side of enormous historical change.

      Delete
  22. Glasgow working class is a silly troll...it is obvious...grow a set...I want to discuss more interesting things like tactically voting green on the list in some regions like midscotlamd and fife or Lothian the latter which is clearly viable

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think that will annoy the author of this blog more than I do!

      Delete
    2. Green on the list for Lothian is a good call Jam, when it comes to holding the SNP leadership to account over land issues there would be no better parliamentarian than Andy Wightman! Wouldn't want to see the odious Ross Greer anywhere near holyrood though, so your right, tactical voting in some regions is worth discussing beyond the simple considerations of SNP majority!

      Delete
    3. Wightman is 2nd on the Lothian list and his presence could popularize an important issue to people who currently dinnae huv a clue aboot it. To get 2 in Lothian we need around at least 15% green on the list which is the lower end of the95% confidence interval from the tns figures. This implies the green Lothian list is important..it might be important in mid Scotland and fife and possibly in the weej. I'll take a look at their list candidates so we can see if they're yes enough. Everywhere else as it currently stands seems to be double snp vote. Time for wise heids and open minds

      Delete
    4. Tumshie some regions only 3 am I potentially advocating currently and only Lothian has my current strong support although I think mid and fife looks likely..greer is west of Scotland and I'm not selling him. I prefer snp but for reasons of tactics and secondly wightman there are some places where we shid shift. It's obvious

      Delete
    5. Wise heids and open minds indeed sir...mark ruskell is top of the Scottish greens list for mid Scotland and Fife, not a bad call either, decent msp 2003-2007 and latterly doing a decent job as a councillor in Stirling, might be worth consideration...whisper it though, in some regions too, as they finalise their lists, might be worth looking at the individual and regional merits of Rise candidates, though I'm only advocating careful rather than blanket consideration!

      Delete
    6. Thanks tumshie my view on rise or indeed any tactical vote away from snp is it has to satisfy the snp list vote is wasted and the tactical vote is the way to prevent a nawbag double condition. I'm not sure rise can do that. Weej or west is most likely but even there I doubt it. Please post on the rise candidates merits though as polls may change..I'm currently trying to persuade lothians I know to vote list green and fife and weej to monitor it. If you identify suitable rise candidates and if they could win (seems currently unlikely) then let us know

      Delete
    7. Nice to find someone with an attitude similar to mine regarding Ross Greer.

      Delete
    8. Nice to find someone with an attitude similar to mine regarding Ross Greer.

      Delete
    9. By all means vote Green on the list if you want Andy Wightman or Mark Ruskell as an MSP, but that's not "tactical voting" - that's voting for the party (or in this case the candidate) you most want to be elected. Genuine tactical voting isn't feasible on the list.

      Delete
    10. Think I was more pontificating in the general battle 'tactical' sense but not explicit enough on a poll based thread guvnah, knuckles considered duly rapped!

      Delete
    11. Yes it is James. Stop lying

      Delete
    12. In Lothian such a turnout for green on the list would produce potentially 3 greens with snp a maximum of 1 list but most likely none. It's obvious then to tactically vote in that region..I believe the same applies to a lesser degree in fife but will monitor the polls as that's my region.

      Delete
    13. Tns provides Lothian level constituency vote..we know what it was last time and in 2011 for Lothian and each seat..tns also provides key explanatory age, sex and social economic group information.we know these variables at seat level. Using this information we can predict the outcome for each seat. We have the list regional vote so we can put it in the calculator to see who'll get the list seats and how much say snp or green would need to get an additional seat. It's not perfect but I'll give it a go and share it if you're interested.Sorry about saying you're lying James I think we just have a different opinion on it.

      Delete
    14. "Tns provides Lothian level constituency vote."

      Oh for heaven's sake. They provide a Lothian subsample of 85 people, which is not properly weighted, and therefore has an incalculably huge margin of error. THAT'S what you're basing your "tactical voting" on? Seriously?

      Delete
    15. It's information. I know what the confidence intervals are. Snp has risen even further and will likely take every Lothian seat including edinburgh south. In such an instance 41% plus or minus 9% gives them f all on the list. Are you trying to deny that? Green meanwhile could get 3 on Lothian. If the trend continues then yes I will recommend a green list vote in Lothian.

      Delete
    16. It's totally obvious Lothian fits the green list strategy as does mid and fife and weej but both to a lesser extent compared with Lothian...high numbers of socio-economic As and Bs who vote green and significantly lower for snp especially on the list...It's an entirely reasonable strategy to want to use that demographic to our advantage...we need to monitor it and be cautious but Lothian has all the ingredients for a brilliant coup d'etat and if it keeps a nawbag oot count me in

      Delete
  23. Well I'm yes and respect James. I'm snp as the delivery vehicle too. There is a debate about how to do it but we are on the same side unlike you aldo so less ae it as you won't split us

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. You'll split yourselves - or put yourselves out of government entirely.

      The left always, always, always fall to Judean Peoples' Front syndrome - the desire to fight amongst yourselves rather than battle the right. It's mystifying - but good! Carry on.

      Delete
  24. I see the Tories are starting their split over Europe.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35150356

    Popcorn at the ready. This is going to make the major years look like a picnic. When the right fight each other, it's really ugly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Skier, Do you think that there'd be enough support for Scotland declaring its intent to leave the UK in order to stay in the EU?
      The wiggle room for Sturgeon is that there would need to be a referendum to ratify the negotiations. After all if the EU referendum was a clear Scottish Remain then that's justification enough.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 22, 2015 at 9:09 PM

      It was the UK that stupidly joined the EU.

      Delete
  25. Looks like YouGov have done a full Scottish poll over the weekend. One of their employees has blurted out the results of their Syria/Iraq questions.

    Narrow plurality (44-41) in favour of the Syrian airs strikes. Tories heavily in favour (77-12), Labour plurality in favour (46-35) and SNP majority against (31-56).

    https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/679242929563680768

    ReplyDelete
  26. Forth road bridge to re-open before schedule - on Wednesday.

    SNP/SNP in May.

    ReplyDelete
  27. FRB opening on Wed (2 weeks ahead of deadline - txs for heads-up, Dan).

    Unionists looking increasingly fcuked it seems via polls.

    Aldo & GWC to be swallowed up by the Dead Sea, perchance?

    Festive season looking good for a few hefty drams of Glengoyne:)

    ReplyDelete
  28. Excellent, even just the title of this article is music to my ears.

    Won't bother trawling through the trolls' comments but they are looking desperate, boo hoo.
    Happy Xmas to all!

    ReplyDelete
  29. These poll figures are great news. However, it's important that we don't take anything for granted. To translate them into votes, we have to do the work. Every vote must be worked for and earned.

    ReplyDelete
  30. 60% +++ is a target to frighten the waens, Aldo and GWC. It has got to the point where no figure seems unattainable or mythical!

    ReplyDelete
  31. Heard the prof on Radio Scotland using that 60% minimum poll rating for indi 2 story. He claims it was agreed at the SNP conference. Was it hell and he knows it. There is no figure agreed. It was when the people show a will for indi 2 and when support is consistently higher for yes.

    ReplyDelete