Friday, November 27, 2015

SNP live the high life in Fife as they soar to two by-election wins on big swings

There were two by-elections in Fife yesterday - and they both featured the familiar STV paradox (so lovingly misunderstood by Lib Dem commentators when it suits them) of a party 'defending' the seat in spite of having lost the popular vote in the ward last time around.  Labour would have technically 'gained' both seats from the SNP simply by standing still - but to put it mildly, they failed to do so.

Rosyth by-election result :

SNP 45.2% (+9.4)
Labour 34.5% (-13.2)
Conservatives 9.1% (+3.3)
Liberal Democrats 3.6% (-3.5)
UKIP 3.3% (+0.7)
Independent - Macintyre 2.5% (n/a)


Dunfermline North by-election result :

SNP 43.5% (+11.9)
Labour 29.6% (-19.7)
Conservatives 12.5% (+5.9)
Liberal Democrats 9.5% (-4.1)
Greens 2.6% (n/a)
UKIP 2.4% (n/a)

(Note : I've already had to make a slight adjustment to the above figures based on my own calculations, because there was a small error in the Twitter reports of the Dunfermline North percentage changes.)

The swing from Labour to SNP in Rosyth was 11.3%, and in Dunfermline North it was 15.8%.  To make sense of those numbers, you have to bear in mind that the SNP start from a much higher baseline in local elections than they did at the general election.  So the average swing of 13.5% in the two wards is the rough equivalent of a 25% swing in May - which is very much within the range of swings we actually saw across former Labour heartlands, albeit not at the top of that range.

It looks as if the SNP are performing almost exactly as well in this part of Fife as they did at the general election (the swing in Dunfermline and West Fife in May was 27.1%).  That will give them enormous heart after one or two recent Scottish by-elections in which they did OK rather than spectacularly well.  And there's certainly no sign in these results of any electoral fallout from the Natalie McGarry controversy.

Once again the Conservatives have achieved tolerably good results, although the jury is out on whether that reflects a true increase in their popularity, or is simply caused by the greater motivation of their supporters in low-turnout contests.  And as for that all-conquering Scottish Lib Dem recovery we heard so much about a few weeks ago...well, at a minimum it doesn't appear to have breached the borders of Fife yet.

66 comments:

  1. Onwards and upwards.

    I think the Scottish Government should seriously think about devolving more powers to local councils.

    As long as these powers come into force after the council elections in 2017.

    By that time there will not be any Unionists in power across the whole country at any level.

    Democracy in action.

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  2. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 1:24 AM

    Something to look forward too. Nat sis in total power but will still blame the English.

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    Replies
    1. How are those insults going for you for defeating the SNP? Working well are they? ;D

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    2. Give it a rest Dugdale you total loser SNP riding high in part because of the betrayal of your Didy wee party.

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  3. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 2:10 AM

    You lost the referendum inspite of your lies. So will you tax the Jock rich and middle classes to pay for public services. Nah ye jist want a Jock rich Nat si aristocracy tae rule and fuck ra poor. NAT SI SCUMBAGS.

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    Replies
    1. All those insults appear to be doing wonders for your beloved Labour party...

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    2. Glasgow working class..lol.. I bet not.. 2.10 am bit late for a worker..no? As for lies what lies eh... without independence nothing can be proved. Your simple mind can't adjust to the fact that just now our country has underperformed in this union. Held back from real growth by a Westminster government intent on destroying what Maggie left. The UK has racked up a further 10 billion to the deficit in one year so your unionist claims of our country being in debt of a tune of 7.6 billion (at worse) after 5 years is a lot better than Westminster's track record. As for taxing the rich we don't have that power.. We have the power to raise taxes yes but only the Baseline and that would affect all.. maybe you should do a little research..

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    3. I have as many doubts as the next poster about GWCs thread methodology James but have to say that's a bit of a restricted view of workers shift patterns no? The tireless GWC may just have finished a traditional 'backshift' or even working at a pub or nightclub, 'workers' don't just work daytime hours and require to be abed for a 'sensible' hour, much as it pains me to defend GWC's position, it's that of 'workers' too!

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    4. GWC - anti semitic, but he doesn't care.

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    5. Absolutely Anon, whatever the intent of the avatar/construct GWC is, there's definitely an offensive, antagonistic narrative there on quite a few levels, my only point in defence of the position above at all was it could have been struck by a casual bigot just in from a backshift, even felt slightly grimy making it, it was for the workers perspective not GWC's, honest guv!😊

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    6. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 28, 2015 at 1:40 AM

      James Coyle. That is probably the comment that makes political drivel fade into political insignificance. You must be a Nat si braindead probably a former Labour leftie. HELP Ma boab, well you did try I suppose.

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    7. You seem confused. Never mind, you eat your cereal and let your unionist overlords do the thinking.

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  4. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 2:19 AM

    When the Tories were trounced in Scotland the left thought that was the end of them. I did not I knew the Tartan Natsi Tories would emerge and I was right. They are here and now.

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    Replies
    1. To paraphrase Mick and Keef, we call you the Midnight Rambler...

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    2. You need to stop this pal. Vast numbers of Independence supporters are of a left persuasion, including me and my two children. Their grandfather fought the real Nazis. You debase his memory by debasing his grandchildren. Just stop it, and debate. It's what he fought for.

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    3. GWC your repetitive mischief is boring. If you are really from Glasgow then you will understand when I say that you are shouting loudly up an empty close, The behaviour of a true bampot.

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    4. The Red Tory Natsi's are indeed " here and now". I heard you on the radio this morning, McTernan.
      The reich wing of the Labour Party.

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    5. No the SNP didn't end the Labour government of Jim Callahan in 1979.
      As Jim Calaghan said in hs autobiography.
      "I have since wondered whether those thirty-four Labour Members would have voted as they did if they had been able to foresee that their votes on that evening would precipitate a General Election in 1979, at the least favourable time for their Government"

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    6. GWC shows his racist side, yet again.

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  5. This is a decent result for all the parties,considering the current state of affairs.Tories pleased.SNP content.Labour and Libdems relieved it isn't worse.

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    1. I disagree totally, it's a dreadful result for Labour, and the SNP will be more than just content. On a uniform swing, we'd be talking about a 28% nationwide SNP lead. Yes, there have been evem better results than this, but we shouldn't downplay the magnitude of it.

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    2. Blethers.Labour got about a third of the vote over those two polls.Thats about two thirds of the unionist vote.Not too shoddy really,all things considered.

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    3. Oh, don't be so silly. Their vote completely collapsed in a traditional heartland. You're talking as if these by-elections had taken place in Moray or somewhere.

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    4. Tory vote up as labour voters trying ,to elect anyone but the SNP,look how murray got elected

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  6. Why do any of you engage with the troll GWC.
    Like most narcissists he craves attention IGNORE IT and it will eventually tire and go elsewhere

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    Replies
    1. In total agreement with your comment Rod...

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    2. Me too. It's the downside of reading the comments that you keep coming up against this ... ..., mainly because people keep responding to it. It's the "right man" type, so has to prove it is right, and arguing just makes that syndrome worse.

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    3. First rule don't feed the trolls
      Can't you recognise a shit stirrer ffs?

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  7. Glasgow working class - if you care to take a look at "Political Compass" you will be disappointed to see how far to the left SNP are of Slab and how much less "authoritarian" they are! You may also look around in general and learn some decent way of expressing your ignorance!

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  8. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 11:09 AM

    How can the Nat sis be left off Labour. Labour/Lib brought in the care for the elderly. That is a bit left. What have the Nat sis done that dan be described as left.
    The Nat sis refuse to tax the rich. That is Tory far right. What will they do when they get the new tax powers!

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    Replies
    1. You've had these questions answered repeatedly and disregarded the answers given. Eat your cereal like a good little troll.

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    2. GWC - all he wants to do is belittle the deaths of millions of Jews. He must really hate them.

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  9. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 11:22 AM

    Thatcherite bus and rail privatisation still with us!

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    Replies
    1. Tedious troll. Eat your cereal.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 1:45 PM

      You nasty offspring off Maggie Badface.

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    3. Tedious troll. The Labour man orders you to eat your cereal and leave the thinking to the Party.

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  10. Great result indeed. Scotland is on a different trajectory to the one South of the border, that is clear. It's called anti austerity and not punishing the poor, disabled, jobless, sick and vulnerable in our communities. It's an uphill struggle, well, sort of given the establishment lies and fabrications fed into peoples living rooms day in day out, but we need to keep working at it. Must go deliver those leaflets, it's good exercise as well!

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  11. The McGarry and Thompson controversies could still have some mileage in them yet. If they are investigated and if they are found to have done something illegal or improper then they could well lose their seats.

    At 45-35 and 44-30, the SNP are ahead - but not ridiculously, stupendously, all conqueringly ahead.

    Aldo

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    Replies
    1. It's the swing that matters, Aldo, not the lead. I'll give you a tutorial some time.

      If any MP is found to have done something illegal, they could lose their seat. But from what we know so far, it's no more likely to happen to Thomson or McGarry than to one of your own MPs.

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    2. Given McGarry and Thompson are not holyrood candidates, I'm not sure of the relevance to May's election. Likewise council elections or even UK elections outside of the seats they represent.

      Christine Graham for example is my local MSP and she's not given me any reason to vote for someone else. Even if McGarry and Thomson were guilty as sin that's no reflection on Graham; not unless she knowingly endorsed their actions or something.

      And let's say Graham was caught up in a big scandal, found guilty, but refused to not stand again. The SNP chucked her, but she stood as 'Christine Graham for Scottish independence'. Well, chances are I'd not vote for her after the scandal. However, that's not going to make me vote Labour. Why on earth would I? They have no clear policies / direction and are against Scottish independence. And I'm hardly going to vote Tory; far too right wing for me and anti-devolution / indy.

      So, I'd vote for the new SNP candidate if there was one. Failing that, maybe Green.

      I mean the actions of one person are not going to change my political leanings / stop me supporting independence. That would be utterly idiotic.

      To win support from the SNP, unionist parties need attractive policies. If 'look, that SNP person might have done something wrong' is all their manifesto says, they're fucked.

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  12. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 1:48 PM

    Do remember aldo that the Nat sis are whiter than white. New politics less corruption.

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    Replies
    1. Says the troll that supports the Tammany Hall brigade in George Square...

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  13. MEMO (Mighty Establishment Media Organisation) must be demented. No matter how much they try to hurt the SNP the voters keep increasing for us. Perhaps the penny is dropping in Scotland. I expect some day soon a Scottish Labour for independence breakaway party will be formed. Otherwise they will disappear up their own Northern Branch.

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    1. That's certainly possible,but it seems unlikely.Surely Labour Party members are more likely just to go over to SNP if they support independence,as they have been doing.

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    2. I believe there is a hard core dyed in the wool section of the Scottish Labour movement who will never under any circumstance join the SNP. No matter how sensible that may seem. However some morning soon they may wake up and smell the coffee and decide they still want to be involved in Scottish politics. Jeremy is doing his best to facilitate that today. Watch out for the resignations soon.

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  14. That will be more rabid twisted headlines from the Brit Nat Press and Media then.

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  15. Ha Ha Ha what a clown you are. How is your lying, cheating, thieving, betraying Diddy wee Labour party doing?

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 5:35 PM

      Poor Paul the Nat si fash English hater. Must be terrible wakening up each morning knowing you are a BRIT. Well at least you can go tae ra Portrait Gallery and worship the Great Leader.

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    2. Piss off and eat your cereal ladyboy

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  16. Glasgow Working Class - clearly you have not taken my advice to do some general reading to find a more grown up way of expressing yourself. By the way everyone who lives in the British Isles can be called/call themselves "British" just like the Danes, Swedes and Norwegians can refer to themselves as "Scandinavians". Mind you many would put their heads in a gas-oven before calling themselves "British"! I wonder why?
    Maybe you can help? - oh! you do regularly!

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  17. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 6:44 PM

    Nah Bill the Nat sis hate being dubbed British, the Butchers Apron and all that. You express yourself as you wish I will do likewise.

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    1. You seem to be confusing national identity and citizenship

      Actually, 62% of people in Scotland are not British at all according to the census. They are 'Scottish only'.Quite stunning that figure considering 300 years of union. However, Scotland had never really been 'British'; that peaked briefly in those born in 1944 and his been in decline since.

      National identity is a choice; that's why you could answer anything you like in the census. You could put down Martian if you wanted; that would be perfectly legitimate as a national identity.

      I'm not British for example. I'm 'Scottish only' in national identity; like the 62%. I do however qualify for British and European Citizenship though by birth; in fact the first automatically makes me the second, like you.

      I don't know if you consider yourself European in identity, but you are a European citizen.

      Certainly, if you are going to say to someone 'You are British and need to accept that' you need to say to yourself 'I am European and need to accept that'.

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    2. Why do you continue to belittle the deaths of millions of Jews? Why are you so anti semitic?

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    3. He's also anti-irish by the sounds of it; 'Butcher's apron' coming from Ireland predominantly.

      You can understand why that term was used in Ireland; tens of thousands of Irish fought and died for Britain in WW1. As thanks, Britain then turned its guns and fired on the Irish simply for asking for home rule. Lovely.

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 10:10 PM

      I am Real Irish fae ra Norf a good proddy innatt. The only time Ireland was United was because of the British and paddy blew it with petty nationalism and let the child abusers tak over. Then most Irish fooked aff tae the mainland and the USA tae sing their sad hard done tae songs. Now the Jokes are dain the same. Its the English tae blame.

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    5. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 10:25 PM

      Skier guess whit a couple of million Irish did not want home rule. Does that kind of remind you of September 2014.

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  18. McGibbon/GlasgowWaterCloset - Still paying the Tampon Tax, ya wee Fanny?

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  19. The comment section here is actually quite short if you filter out the GWC threads.
    It's a bit like scrolling through lines of code and ignoring the bits that have no functionality.

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  20. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 9:49 PM

    Looks like we are hivvin a Nat si open day at Carstairs.

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    Replies
    1. Comparing people whose political opinions differ from your own with the mentally ill. How very Soviet of you. The commissar orders you to eat your cereal like a good comrade.

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  21. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 9:57 PM

    Skier, you can on occasion be sensible when you admitted that we could have border controls. Is it possible that when the Nat sis screw up the Jock economy the Jocks will have to apply for a Visa and work permit tae get intae England. And of course those that do would say they voted Naw! It wisnae us it wis the mugs.

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  22. Tell me, WC, is it the red dress and stilettos or the pink dress and slip-ons tonight?

    After all, it is Friday and you'll be going out on the town.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 27, 2015 at 10:14 PM

      David, are you suggesting we meet, I will wear anything you want. Remember yer wallet Jock.

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    2. Thanks awfully, son.

      But my diary is full.

      Don't let that stop you enjoying yourself, though.

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