Sunday, November 8, 2015

Horsin' around

A week or so after the independence referendum last year, I was whisked off by helicopter to a top-secret location near Falkirk (and luckily I don't think the two small sculptures in the background give the game away at all) to be interviewed by Phantom Power about my thoughts on what had just happened.  That interview is included in the newly-released Part 2 of  'Altered State : Reflections on Scotland's First Independence Referendum'.  Other contributors are Janice Galloway, Paul Kavanagh, Derek Bateman and Christopher Silver.



If the embedded video doesn't work, the direct link is HERE.

45 comments:

  1. The extremely biased views of the Yes supporters expressed in this video will simply strengthen the resolve of the NO supporters to vote for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom.

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    1. By all means lets make sure lots of No supporters watch it, and then we can find out if you're right.

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    2. Thanks, Jimmy, all comments valued. I did ask No people to be involved but they all declined.

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  2. both parts of the film are up here - there are lessons to be learned about how voters are swayed as Scotland moves forward to parliament elections in the spring. https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2015/11/08/phantom-power-how-the-uk-won-the-scottish-referendum/

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  3. A year on and I think the realisation of what the No vote has tied us into,is now dawning on more and more No voters.

    The evidence is clearly that around 3 - 5% of them have moved to Yes,since last September and I think that will only increase as the UK Tory Govt continues to rip up the Welfare State and penalise the poorest and most vulnerable in our society.

    There will, inevitably, be another Referendum - as the majority of Scots wish - and, with a starting point of 45 - 50% support (according to the latest poll-averages) I believe the Yes side will win.

    Changing the status of our Nation was never going to be an easy or quick endeavour, but the signs are there that change is definitely coming.

    The Scottish mindset has completely changed in the last couple of years - and it will never go back to "knowing our place".

    Independence WILL come - and probably sooner than most Unionists will admit.

    Constantly mopping up the deliberate crap being consistently flung by Westminster is not what most Scots see as an acceptable price to pay, to stay within this decrepit, unequal and dying Union.

    And they are right.

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    1. Independence may come or it may not. To sit here and confidently predict one outcome or the other is simply wishful thinking.

      At the moment, economics are on the side of the pro UK camp and we also have time on our side (the winning of the 2014 referendum effectively rules out another go until well into the 2020s).

      It doesn't mean the pro UK side will win, but, at this moment in time, the things that matter are stacked in our favour. I'm content with that.

      Aldo

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    2. Not one correct point made.

      Hence - I am also very content with what the future holds for my Country of Scotland.

      Very content indeed, in fact.

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    4. Your religious zeal wont make independence happen if it's fated not to happen David - just like belief in Christianity or Islam wont magic up a God and afterlife if all we are is just a collection of molecules with no soul.

      Will independence happen? The only honest answer is "I don't know".

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    5. Amazing that a Tory alleges that another Party is populated by "Religious Zealots" - when the Church of England was always known as "The Conservative Party at Prayer".

      I will gladly leave the notion of "God is on our Side" to your Party, Aldo.

      Scottish Independence will if Scots wish it.

      I believe that they are closer than ever to wishing it now and will continue that journey in a shorter time-frame than some Unionists will admit.

      More and more Scots are now concluding that the political Union is more trouble and has more drawbacks than it is worth.

      The enthusiasm for that Union is visibly waning - even since last September - and, I believe, will continue to wane in the near future.

      As I said previously - I am very content that my Country of Scotland is on the track that I favour.

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  4. By the way - well done in getting to 101% of your fundraising target with a mere 3 days.

    Brilliant stuff!

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  5. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 8, 2015 at 9:30 PM

    James, I am not a NO Supporter, just British. Why should I change my nationality considering my ancestors came from all over Britain to Scotland and worked hard. You see James some of us Brits just do not get your inkling for Nat si ism. The difference on my part and you Nat sis is I do not hate you, think you are daft but that is it.

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    1. "James, I am not a NO Supporter"

      Splendid. I'll pencil you in as a possible Yes.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 8, 2015 at 10:11 PM

      James, please do not exert your wrist on my behalf. I know you fundamentalists have never forgiven the English for bailing out the Failed Scottish Darien Colonial scheme however it did bring prosperity in the long run along with the Enlightenment, Walter Scott, Kilts and shortbreid collectable tins. We should express our gratitude to the English.

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    3. Hmmm. I rather suspect Walter Scott would have been born anyway, with or without the Act of Union.

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 8, 2015 at 10:43 PM

      Mibbies aye mibbies naw depends on availabilty of women in those times.

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    5. What a truly delightful person you are.

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    6. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 8, 2015 at 11:26 PM

      Thanks James I appreciate your comment and your sense of reality!

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    7. Maybr if you're a good little troll, bowing low, tugging forelock and eating your cereal, your Unionist overlords will give you permission to have a biscuit...

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    8. I think people are angry about how this referendum has pigeon holed them. In the glorious days before 2011 (and particularly before 2007), there was no great divide in this country. The sectarian thing was there but had receded and was largely confined to knuckle draggers in football stadiums. There was a sense of Scottishness that everybody shared in. Now you're a yesser or a noer - a nationalist or a unionist.

      Some don't consider themselves pro or anti anything and resent being labelled as such. They just want to return to simpler, saner, more cohesive times.

      Aldo

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    9. "There was a sense of Scottishness that everybody shared in."

      Jings, I thought unionists hated Brigadoon.


      "They just want to return to simpler, saner, more cohesive times."

      Before the Big Bang then.

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    10. @ Aldo

      This isn't really something that's unique to independence, it's something that happens with most passionate referendums and I expect we'll see the same thing with the EU vote. The greatest mobilising force in politics has always been to create an "us vs them" mentality. I suspect that was always the SNP's aim - i.e. they might lose the referendum, but by forcing everyone to pick a side and whipping people up into a populist fury about what those on the other side were doing they'd make themselves the dominant force in Scottish politics.

      Is Scottish society better off as a result? Of course not - we're more divided than ever - but political parties couldn't care less about national unity, they care simply about securing their own support base and a Scotland polarised around independence is exactly what the SNP have always wanted. Great for them; for the country not so much.

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    11. The so-called united kingdom is certainly disintegrating.

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    12. No it's not. I look out my window and I hear birdsong and see people going about their business, driving to work, going to the pub, going to the footie, booking their holidays for next year.

      This independence business is an abstraction and a distraction. Meanwhile, life marches on, as normal, with the vast majority of people enjoying a standard of living that is, to them, satisfactory, and - to the rest of the world - luxurious.

      The UK is certainly not disintegrating although some people probably wish it were!

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  6. Apologies for going O/T - just did a Panelbase poll which had Rev Stu written all over it. Anyone else do it?

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    1. Stu did give people the chance to suggest questions for a Panelbase poll - which must be the one you did. What sort of questions were asked in it?

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  7. I remember speaking to someone around early September (before the YouGov poll was released) about an opinion poll for Yes Scotland (by Panelbase) that was apparently held back (and nothing was ever released) due to it showing a figure swing of 7-8% from the previous Panelbase poll (would've put Yes at 55%). I don't know where the rumour came from, but looking back it may have been that people were "hearing things" and interpreting them as fact. This sort of thing may have made people believe that a solid Yes vote was likely to occur. I think some of us convinced ourselves that we were going to win it before the vote.

    There was also the postal ballots - 22% of votes cast were by post. There may be many of that 22% that voted, before the Yes surge that occurred - and possibly regretted voting so early. I've heard suggestions that the postal ballot was roughly 70% No - which seems high considering the final result.

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    1. There were rumours about a Panelbase poll, but what there doesn't seem to be much doubt about is that there was an internal Better Together poll (possibly a telephone poll conducted by Ipsos-Mori) putting Yes at 53%. I remember Gary Gibbon openly referring to that poll on Channel 4 News at the time, and talking of the blind panic it had caused.

      I'd have to trawl through the archives to find the exact figures, but there's polling evidence that the postal vote for No was much lower than 70%.

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    2. I remember the #PublishThePoll campaign on Twitter. Although, I think it referred to the UK Government polling. I read the Disunited Kingdom and it suggested that a UK Gov poll showed Yes at 53% - it's possible that the UK Government were giving their polling data to Better Together.

      The 70% No figure may have been in a specific council area, although the postal vote figure was much higher than the overall figure (IIRC).

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    3. #PublishThePoll referred to a much earlier poll, which was assumed to show a Yes surge, but not an outright lead.

      I'm not clear whether the 53% Yes poll was funded by Better Together or the UK government, but that's pretty much a distinction without a difference. From memory, it was a Labour MP who leaked the news to Gary Gibbon.

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 9, 2015 at 12:05 AM

      James, how could a Yes poll or indeed a NO poll be funded? I thought polls were neutral and entirely democratic! Are you by any chance saying polls are used to gain advantage.

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    5. So in GWC world, polls are not funded? They just magically appear?

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    6. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 9, 2015 at 12:36 AM

      My world is not the issue James. Polls should be independent and non party. Although if a party wants to poll its members on a party issue then fine. Putin is ahead of the Polls in Russia so lets vote for Putin! And Putin is in charge of the Polls. Public discussion open meetings and argument on issues is surely preferable, I think. Mibbie.

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    7. Let's have a talk about this when you're sober.

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    8. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 9, 2015 at 1:13 AM

      OK James when you are sober we can have a blether.Take me drunk I am home.

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    9. Eat your cereal.

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    10. It's not that surprising to have postal votes showing a higher percentage of No as a lot of older people use postal votes. I would also imagine on average that the kinds of people who are temporarily living in another part of the UK but have permanent residency in Scotland (who also use postal votes) might be less inclined to support independence as they have a bit of a broader outlook on the world.

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    11. Or they are double dipping. They get the extra resources by working in the south where the gov pours resources into businesses and jobs etc, but get to use the general subsidies in Scotland when they want. Just a guess.

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    12. Or they are double dipping. They get the extra resources by working in the south where the gov pours resources into businesses and jobs etc, but get to use the general subsidies in Scotland when they want. Just a guess.

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  8. Yes supporters prior to 18/09/14:

    "Publish the poll! Publish the poll!!!"

    Yes supporters after 18/09/14:

    "Don't publish the poll!"

    Aldo

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    1. Can I just ask why you are anonymous and then sign as also? Why not just post as " also is sometimes right" or something.

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    2. Can I just ask why you are anonymous and then sign as also? Why not just post as " also is sometimes right" or something.

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    3. "Yes supporters after 18/09/14:

      "Don't publish the poll!""


      Could you explain that joke, because I'm not sure I get it? Which poll did we not want published after the 18th, and why?

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 9, 2015 at 9:03 PM

      Bill Palmer. I think it says Aldo! And why do you do a double post?

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    5. Eat your cereal, troll.

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