Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Game-changing Ipsos-Mori poll suggests Scotland would vote for independence in second referendum

This is truly historic - the first time that Ipsos-Mori have ever shown a majority in favour of independence.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 53%
No 44%

It's the first post-referendum poll on independence from Ipsos-Mori, so it doesn't necessarily point to a sudden Yes surge out of nowhere.  To some extent, it could even be said to be in line with recent polls from other firms showing a slender No lead, because all pollsters are agreed that there has been an increase in Yes support since last September.  But Ipsos-Mori's distinctive methodology has seen that increase translate into an outright Yes lead, and one of sufficient size to qualify as "decisive" in BBC terms.

Ironically, Ipsos-Mori were one of the most No-friendly firms throughout the long referendum campaign, which meant they showed a much bigger swing to Yes when the 'Great Convergence' occurred at the death.  But it now seems that was simply a waystation on an unlikely transition, and that Ipsos-Mori are emerging as by far the most Yes-friendly firm (of those that have reported recently).

The biggest issue is probably that they don't weight by recalled referendum vote, or indeed by any recalled vote at all.  Instead, they put all their eggs in the basket of demographic weighting.  That carries the risk of there being too many pro-independence voters in the sample, because those may be the people keenest to answer political questions down the phone.  But that can't wholly explain such a favourable result for Yes - remember that Ipsos-Mori's final poll of last year's campaign (published on the morning of polling day itself) overstated the Yes vote by just 2%.  And the early post-September polls from YouGov, carried out before recalled referendum vote weighting was introduced, showed a Yes lead but a much narrower one than we see today.  The most positive interpretation is that today's poll is a very rare telephone poll, and perhaps a 'real world' approach to data collection is picking up a Yes majority that polls reliant on volunteer online panels are missing.

Either way, the very fact that it's a telephone poll makes it that bit more difficult for opponents of independence to dismiss.  Back in the days when Panelbase were the most Yes-friendly firm, Labour people used to make daft allegations that the Panelbase panel had been "infiltrated".  It'll be a bit difficult to make that claim about Ipsos-Mori, who seek out a completely fresh sample of respondents every time.

What we could really do with now is an independence poll from TNS - the only other regular 'real world' pollster on Scottish political affairs.  They use the face-to-face approach rather than telephone, and if they come close to replicating Ipsos-Mori's finding, it could be hugely significant.  (If they don't, of course, it increases the chances that the online pollsters are closest to the mark.)

Make no mistake, though - today is a game-changer.  Until now, it's been possible to make the claim that the polls are broadly showing a small No lead, and that the occasional exceptions have been caused by normal sampling variation.  Today's poll can't be explained away like that - the Yes lead is too big.  So the new reality is that Yes could be in the lead, or No could be in the lead - we can't say which, not even on the balance of probabilities.  That will obviously have an impact on the debate over the timing of a second referendum.

Apologies for taking so long to complete this post, and also for the fact that it's a bit shorter than usual.  As you've probably gathered by now, I'm away on holiday at the moment.  I blogged about independence polls in some unexpected locations last August, but I think today's was the most exotic so far!  If I ever get rich, I'll aim to blog about a 30% Yes lead from a beach in Goa...

135 comments:

  1. That's a shock - Ipsos Mori were traditionally one of the pollsters to show Yes lower...

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  2. Cruel tory austerity, EVEL, attacks on disabled, trident renewal, New Labour and media attacks on Corbyn, EU referendum, bombing Syria, Abolishing welfare state, Peers and MPs raping and murdering children, stealth privatisation of NHS and other public services, TTIP, erosion of human rights, increased inequality, promotion of aristocracy as ruling elite, no new powers of any significance, treats Scotland like a colony.

    The real jaw dropper is that 44% of Scots still think UK:OK

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    1. Well said. That's a poster for #snp

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  3. 53.5% Yes / 43.9% No with rounding to 1 decimal place. 9.6% lead for Yes.

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    1. Or 54.9% YES excluding don't knows

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  4. What nice polls news to read on return to Scotland today.

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  5. In August 2014 Ipsos MORI had YES on 42%, No on 58% excluding undecideds, 6 weeks before the referendum. Which, looking back, was probably fairly accurate.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3429/Yes-continues-to-make-progress-as-we-enter-the-final-stretch.aspx

    So I'm guessing this could be a genuinely massive increase in favour of independence.

    Suck on that Working Class Glasgow and Aldo. Looking forward to your imminent hissy fit, go on, knock yourselves out :D

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  6. James - it's 55% Yes without undecided voters. It's an "overwhelming" lead - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11108124/Scotland-overwhelmingly-rejects-independence.html

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  7. This has fair put a spring in my step. Wonder if No voters are switching now that it's apparent we've got years / decades of Tory rule ahead of us.

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  8. I wont watch any TV tonight then. I can predict a hysterical Brit Nat reaction to this poll. Does it account for Ruth Davidsons postal voters?

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  9. YEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS ..... LETS GET PIISSHHHEDDD!

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    1. I wonder what you'd be like if we actually won a referendum.

      Sadly, this is just a poll - but it's a massive step in the right direction.

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    2. I got steaming in anticipation and passed out before the result

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  10. It's the first time Ipsos MORI have put Yes ahead in a publicly released poll, to be more precise. The Ipsos MORI-conducted private Cabinet Office polling showed, in the last couple of weeks of the campaign, a consistent lead of 2-5% which of course sparked the shock and awe phase of Project Fear.

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  11. I'm with those that think Yes support lags SNP (other Yes party too) support. Deciding to support/vote for/accept a decisive majority result as a No/Undecided is to take half a step toward Yes. At the very least it indicates the absence of active antipathy to Yes. Time, defending your position and conversation with older shifters then tends to make them more and more comfortable with Yes tropes, ideas, ways of thinking, and importantly accessing Yes information sources.

    The danger would be to assume such shifters are permanent, those who fall out of love tend to react strongly against. Think of how many us former Labour voters now see the Red Tories. So to wait too long for IndyRef 2 is to risk the bleeding away of Yes support as SNP support gradually wanes except in the unlikely scenario of it waning only towards Green/Left parties.

    Nicola, you and We have to strike while all our stars are in alignment as they must inevitably drift apart. Corbyn represents a potential risk as much as an ally. The conditional commitment in the next manifesto must leave room for it being called simply because the polls indicate majority support for Yes. People will forgive that once battle is joined and the result is known. We only have to win once.

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    1. Only a snapshot - but underlines that there WILL be a time and tide and we must not through over-caution miss it. The vital skill will be timing it AND the run-up campaign right - for there is every reason to believe that the campaign will build further from where we start off next time - just as last time, but this time with the wind very much with us. Whenever it is going to be, it seems increasingly likely that it will be sooner than the longer term estimates have suggested. 2020 looks better and better - either for the poll or for Independence Day.

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    2. 2020 is too far away. As i said in my post below, i would make the Holyrood elections the test. Vote for us and we hold a referendum.
      A snap referendum in June would give little time for Project Fear.

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    3. The problem is the SNP are too cautious/feart to do that. They think their parliamentary support would evaporate as No/Undecided people shy away. Their commitment to Independence comes after their desire for political success. They are too dominant for a Catalan style Yes political coalition as well.

      The argument will also be that unlike Catalonia Westminster has already conceded the majority indicated wish for one referendum. Only if a second referendum is decisively blocked AND people clearly blame Westminster for it that say a snap Holyrood election on a Yes ticket might even be considered.

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    4. You didn't deliver the promised Home Rule, so let the people give their response.

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    5. @Muscleguy.
      I totally disagree that the SNP commitment to independence comes after their desire for political success.
      The SNP aren't a 'normal' political party. They are a movement that lives and breathes for one aim. Scottish Independence.

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    6. @Juteman
      Except, it was all very well to be all principled when they were a small band of principled rebels. But now they are an establishment party with boys and girls with jobs they need to look after and consider and of course being in government with your hands on power is seductive and risking that is to leave the people in the lurch, as the justification often goes.

      Your idea of the SNP, is I gently suggest, outdated. They are a two term government seeking reelection with unfinished business to be getting on with. They also have the Quebec history ringing in their ears and what has happened after the narrow loss in the second referendum. These things make them cautious. They would not be human if it did not.

      And anyway, we have not, yet, been turned down for a referendum after a democratic vote in favour of one. So the issue is at present academic. The referendum principle has been accepted by precedence. Only a strong balking from Westminster with court appeals exhausted etc. etc and Corbyn agreeing set in stone as the alternative govt would even begin to justify a plebiscite by election.

      I agree the relative simplicity and immediacy of it is appealing to those of us who would go again tomorrow in a heartbeat. But that is my heart speaking, not my head. My head says it is referendum or bust. The die is cast and Westminster is not Madrid.

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    7. I would guess that every single SNP elected official would gladly resign tomorrow, if that was a condition of independence.

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    8. Based on what, Juteman? You'll be right about many of the older ones, who joined the party when it was highly unlikely to offer them anything approaching a career, but it seems rather likely that there are a lot of young turks who are in it now for personal advancement. If you're looking for a job in politics in Scotland today, it's not the Labour party you'll be joining.

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  12. I'm a mite worried by the small Undecided population. Is that an artefact of Ipso-Mori's technique or does it indicate the undecideds are making up their minds and breaking decisively for Yes?

    If there is any sign of the latter we are odds on for Yes and we must seek another referendum soonest after May while this support lasts, The Tories are still in nasty mode, Corbyn remains untested and before the SNP can be berated for their use of the new 'powers'. We know the unionist media will be at them, almost totally unfairly but it's propaganda soonest and some of it will stick.

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  13. Wow.
    Not really surprised though, as i've spoken to a couple of older folk that admitted to voting No, and now bitterly regret it.

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    1. I was helping at a very local Yes group's street stall just after postal voting started and news came of an older gentleman who had sent of his No vote and who was already bitterly regretting it.

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  14. Surely connected to the Tories getting in again with a majority?
    And the backtracking on home rule.
    Before the referendum there was a chance of a new government for traditional labour voters to hold out for.

    If Labour under Corbyn is thumped in 2020 it could be the last straw for Labour supporters in Scotland.

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  15. I think the SNP need to state before the Holyrood elections that a vote for them is a vote for independence. Make it very clear that if they form the next government, they will hold a referendum. No ifs, no buts, a vote for the SNP IS a vote for a referendum. Keep the momentum going.
    It's coming yet, for a that.

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  16. If the Red Tories manage to manipulate the leadership election and Corbyn doesn't win we can probably expect the yes vote to increase even further. The smear campaign has finished them off in Scotland if any of the right wing candidates win.

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  17. A little something to cheer up the nationalists as the first anniversary of the real vote approaches.

    Time will tell whether it's an outlier or start of a trend.

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    1. Sadly for you Aldo, it is consistent with the already clear trend towards Yes since the referendum. It's simply the biggest Yes lead recorded (1% or 2% before) and the first time Yes has been over 50% unadjusted.

      The real picture doesn't have to this rosy for the trend to be true. Time, and demographics are on our side, as is the last GE result, in both countries. The Nasty party are back and in full flow while Scotland has feisty champions fighting our corner to make people feel good about being Scottish.

      The 56 have had successes but there is still time for them to be seen as feeble. Which is why we cannot wait too long for the next referendum.

      Your voters are dying off or being converted under your very eyes to Yes.

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    2. These are interesting figures Aldo:

      Working full time:
      55% Yes
      42% No

      Working part time:
      54% Yes
      44% No

      Not working:
      65% Yes
      31% No

      Retired
      39% Yes
      58% No

      Standard retirement age was what 65 until recent changes?

      I see "Hard working people support independence". Dave should be pleased seeing those with "get up and go" backing "taking responsibility / standing on own two feet" etc...

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    3. Two things:

      1) There is not an actual referendum in the offing, so minds are not concentrated on the issue.

      2) Polls showing majority support for independence are not particularly rare. Through the mid 2000s, there were polls which showed big leads for the option of an independent Scotland. Nearly ten years later we would reject it by a double digit margin.

      It is inevitable that occasional polls will indicate support for independence. It gets attention because of the political situation we now find ourselves in. But you can look back through the archives and find such polls stretching back decades.

      The political, electoral and economic barriers to independence remain immense. I often compare the unionist experience to being on a plane. It might crash but it probably wont - and this is just a wee bit of turbulence.

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    4. Theres a definite move to Yes.Slowly but surely and across all age groups and socio-economic types it seems.

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    5. Aye you are right. The electorate have not debated any of the stuff you mention ever. We really need to have a good long debate about currency, the EU, economics etc. You know, TV debates, town hall meetings etc. We also need to make a whole new pro-indy media for people to read if Yes is to get above 30% as per IPSOS MORI polls. The whole independence issue just hasn't ever been at the forefront of Scottish politics before. There's no way people can appreciate the issues; they'd need to have been discussing them all the time for say, 4 years at least.

      Anyway, I hear the SNP just won a landslide in Holyrood.

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    6. Seems like just yesterday that every single unionist/quisling was desperate to inform us that there had never ever ever ever ever ever ever been an opinion poll showing majority support for Scottish Independence. Now it seems that they are in fact 20 a penny. Britnat-Unitrolls. Never knowingly consistent for long.

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    7. That's not what I'm getting at. Of course there has been a big debate in the country these last few years. But the moment of 'danger', if you will, has passed. Therefore you can expect more frivolous answers to such polls than, if, for example, an actual referendum were being held next Thursday.

      It's like midterm polling during a government. 2 years out from the election and everyone is kicking the government. 2 days out and they're not so sure - they're being fairer in their assessment of the government and scrutinising the opposition more. We could be looking at a similar sort of effect here.

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    8. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 8:04 PM

      A Quisling is a traitor and a Nazi. So you Nat sis are not Nazis? When people vote clearly and the opposition deny this then it could end up with civil war. Try having respect for the majority old chap.

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    9. I never said Yes leads were non existent, ever. I said they are rare in comparison to no leads. But there are so many polls conducted on this issue that you can reasonably expect a pro indy lead every now and again.

      I say wait for the trend. Indy polls come out on average once a month. By Crimbo, we should have a fair idea what's going on.

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    10. Yep, they don't do themselves any favours with all the "Quisling" stuff, do they? Future indyref, if it ever happens, will be, in part, a judgment of the conduct of those seeking separation - as the last one was. They would do well to remember this.

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    11. Do you think the Glasgow WC is helping the unionist cause by calling independence supporters Nazis?

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  18. "A wee bit of turbulence". You are an eternal optimist Aldo! :) I believe Louis XVI said something about a "wee rebellion" on the eve of the Revolution. ;)

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    1. There is no reason for alarm - and wont be - until we are entering the closing stages of a future referendum campaign with polling numbers like this. But the distance and obstacles between where we are now and that situation I've outlined are considerable.

      The one good thing to come out of this is that it will pile pressure on Nicola Sturgeon - a gradualist - from the fundamentalists within her own party. Does she take the cautious route and alienate a large chunk of her supporters or does she indulge them and accept all the risks associated with that? A very tough decision. Both options risky but one could lead to independence, the other to disaster. Which way to go?

      I'm glad I'll never have to make such a decision.

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    2. I'm glad I'll never have to make such a decision.

      So are 99.99 recurring% of the public, have a nice day.

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  19. I have serious doubts that many SNP supporters could be wowed back to Labour. The bottom line is that despite being left leaning Corbyn is just another unionist career politician Westminster to the core. Much as I hate to agree with the war mongering, more Tory than the Tories Blair he is right that England will never elect a left wing prime minster and could well cause a split between the various factions in the Labour camp. It would be pretty hard for them all to continue working in harmony { ok that would be a first ever for Labour] when so much bad blood has flowed between the sides.
    Remember this poll is not about Labour catching some SNP voters who voted SNP for being farther left than Labour , this is about people saying they would vote for independence

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  20. I'm assuming the question asked in the poll was the same as last year's referendum question. But the electoral commission has said that the EU referendum question cannot be a Yes/No response as "Yes" becomes, automatically, the more positive and affirmative response - putting the No campaign at an immediate disadvantage. I can only assume this decision is based on their observation of the Scottish referendum.

    So, in future, if we have another indyref, the options could well be "leave the UK" vs "stay in the UK". I wonder what that would do to the polling figures?

    You know, it would almost be worth having another indyref just to see people putting up large, wooden "LEAVE" signs in their front gardens.

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    1. There's another straw over there Aldo.

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    2. My point has relevance. If the electoral commission has ruled that "Yes/No" questions are inherently biased then these things tend to operate on precedents and any future indyref question and answer will therefore be worded differently. That renders your poll out of date before it was even published.

      You wouldn't make a good lawyer would you? "The defendent is guilty your honour, we found this blood soaked knife in his pocket and he was chanting 'kill kill!' ".

      Scottish Skier: "Ha! A mere strawman!"

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    3. LOL!

      1 point for attempted deflection.



      Next.

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    4. Aldo is an independence supporter? Shurely shome mishtake?

      Mind you he has been on about the formerly proposed EUref question:

      "Should the United Kingdom be an Independent Country?"

      And it's comparability to the Scottish iref one.

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    5. Aldo - when you read the electoral commission research, the problem with the government's EU question is that a YES response was associated with the status quo.. keeping things as they are.

      Referendum questions typically quiz voters on the proposal, so this format could be confusing and seen as leaning.

      A 'no' response in a referendum would usually be associated with the 'no change' option.

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    6. Not only did the Electoral Commission approve the indyref question, it was *their suggestion*!!

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  21. Poor Aldo. 8 posts since 6:20. Smoke coming off his fingertips as he tries to type his way out of his existential crisis.

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    1. Aldo says he's not a troll...poor Aldo...got his buttons well and truly pressed on a previous post....and now poor retarded Troll GWC has dissed him. he's burned his boats wherever they've sailed. Altogether now POOOOOOR Aldo!

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  22. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 8:43 PM

    "You know, it would almost be worth having another indyref just to see people putting up large, wooden "LEAVE" signs in their front gardens." says Aldo.

    Amusingly it is Aldo who will be first to get his "LEAVE" sign up just as soon as the date for the Euro-Ref is announced, along with all the other UKIPERS.

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    1. Aldo is an independence supporter? Shurely shome mishtake?

      Mind you he has been on about the formerly proposed EUref question:

      "Should the United Kingdom be an Independent Country?"

      And it's comparability to the Scottish iref one.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 9:23 PM

      Skier are you impersonating a Tartan Tory exile tax dodger?

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    3. Beat it GWC, A.K.A troll!

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  23. Good poll obviously. :-D

    However, no one poll is going to be the gamechanger since we already know what the gamechanger is from May. Not that the Westminster bubble twits have the slightest chance of understanding it. It's simply that we had no intention of giving up after the first Indyref and instead are determined to work even harder from here on in. Rest assured, our supporters, members activists have not stopped any more than Nicola and the SNP administration has. We will win the next indyref the same way we won the Westminster elections and the same way we'll fight to win the Holyrood elections. Street by street, door by door, voter by voter.

    Self-evidently, it helps to have out of touch nasty party twits like Osborne making a twat of themselves over Trident and indeed so much else.

    Certainly, it's never going to stop being funny watching dim-witted Pouters shrieking hysterically about oil prices and completely failing to understand why it's backfiring on them.

    And yes, the jawdropping sight of the London Labour establishment and the Westminster bubble Blairites shitting all over their own democratic processes and Corbyn's supporters with the astonishing Labour Purge is hardly going to harm us.


    But the bottom line is that unless the Scottish public trusted us, want to hear what we have to say and know that we are on their side then we would be as utterly irrelevant as the lib dems now are.

    Let's also see what the polls say next year when the tories begin their civil war, purges and run about like headless chickens over whether they want to be a pro-Europe pro-EU immigration party or not.

    Though TBH, if the incompetent fop Cameron and tory party HQ keep whispering to the press about holding a sudden snap referendum very early next year then the chaos in the tory party will begin even sooner than we thought. ;-)

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 9:41 PM

      You did not win the Westminster Elections. YOUR Tory pals did.

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    2. Here comes the troll, looking for a rise.

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    3. This is a Scottish blog you fuckwitted Pouter.

      Piss off back to the Daily Mail where you can proclaim your undying love for that inept dickhead Farage in peace, you racist kipper twat.

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    4. Wow, Mick, that's a wee bit too harsh. GWC is a pain in the backside but he just feeds off that. Don't feed the trolls!

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    5. GWC is the Pouter James McGibbon and he self-evidently has the IQ of a peanut.

      James indulges the trolls by letting them post on here but that hardly means I or anyone else have to endorse their sub Daily Mail pish, racism and trolling by being polite to them.

      Sure, we can all have a good laugh at how hopelessly out of touch they are, but at the end of the day I have better things to do than indulge some Pouter imbecile who obviously knows fuck all about Scottish politics and has nothing of value to say whatsoever.

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  24. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 9:38 PM

    GWC, 8:43 pm. Look pal I do not mind being an arsehole but please do not impersonate. ONE is enough.

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  25. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 9:59 PM

    A future Scotland with border controls at Gretna could look like this. Tommy Sheridan minister for morals. Wee Nicola fashion consultant. WEE ECK WIE THE BIRD wig consular representative tae North Korea.
    Cunningham Brit Hater minister for moral and women's rights tae abortion as well as special representative tae the Vatican and forgiveness by his holiness fae Argentina...
    And the Paisley Slapper of course fae the toon of Mirren. John Swinney future Bank of Credit Union Scotland Chief Director. Cannot think think of an immigration minister but perhaps a keep them in minister and a wall like Berlin. But we will be happy being Scottish. Everyone a Scotsman.

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    1. And head chief of bawbag trolls, I give you, Glasgow Working Class!!!!! Everyone cheer!

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:30 PM

      I would certainly take taxpayers money for bein the heid yin of Scottish bawbags. Why not the Nat sis are dain it. Jings is it only Nat sis that can con the people.

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    3. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 2, 2015 at 10:47 PM

      Anony. In the event of Scotland leaviing the Union and border controls at Gretna will us Brits get a tattoo on our arm? Will we be able to leave? I do not have ginger hair should I get a cosmetic ginger Celtic hair do to prove my Scottishness.

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    4. You really are a ridiculous child. Now stop talking nonsense and go to bed.

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    5. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 3, 2015 at 12:19 AM

      And you think you can get the cake and eat it whilst deceiving the Scottish people. Just tell the truth old chap. You get independence you do not get access to England. And why would you want to. Port Glesga round trip to Germany.

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    6. Eh? You make no sense troll.

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  26. James, you don't need to be rich to go on holidays to places like Goa. Skyscanner ( Scottish company too ) will clue you in on the flights, then book your hotel with Accorhotels online. At times you get mega discounts if you sign up for the loyalty card. I see they have 2 places in Goa which cost £50 a night just now.

    But a 30% yes lead? You will have to wait until we are independent to get that. When all the diehards ( and dickhead trolls ) remarkably forget they voted no. Everyone loves a winner.

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  27. No recalled indyref weighting? FFS, why not?

    Might be ahead. Might not.

    The teasing bastards.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 3, 2015 at 1:05 AM

      New Scottish alliance with the Mac Merkal och aye ra noo up yer kilt brain dead Jocks. VE VILL run your country in accordance vith ra wishes of Der Fuhrer wee Alec fae ra North our obedient servant.

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    2. Mori don't do recalled vote weighting at all in any of their polls.

      Pretty sure they were the first to pick up the SNP westminster landslide and got quite close to the actual SNP 50% when the likes of Yougov had low 40s?

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  28. Ahh, I get it now, Glasgow Working Class is a pro-indy parody. Haha, funny work mate, but I think you've blown your cover, no real unionist would try to come across as such an ill-informed, bigotted numpty who despises the "jocks" on purpose.

    But you do a good job of showing up how anti-Scottish the Brit-Nats really are. Keep up the good work, Glasgow WC :D

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  29. Whenever the Britnat haters start doing their nuts You can just hear another little bell ring as someone else joins the SNP

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  30. Humans are tribal animals and like to go with the herd. I wonder if a self-reinforcing tipping point will be reached in the coming years (I don't think we are there yet), independence will become the new normal, and the default position of the person who just wants to go with the flow is a 'yes'.

    In that situation, even the Daily Record will change its tune on independence. That will be the marker of when we know we will win...

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    1. Humans are greedy animals and like to follow money.

      But I think the same, a tipping point will be reached when the businesses who obediently lined up to shoot down Yes start to worry about profit. It will be media who panic first. Then retailers. (Not banks, obvs nor the bloody BBC.)

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    2. I couldn't care less about what any Brit Nat rag does or says now. A plague on all their houses. I wont buy any of them and I will not give any of them any succour in any way. They will be the first to sell us out in any way they can.

      The P&J for instance will always be the voice of Trump and advocate the building of Golf Courses before supporting anything that brings real jobs to Scotland or defending those jobs it still has.

      The Daily Rectum will always tow the line of its southern corporate Masters even when Scotland goes Independent.

      The Brit Nat Press and Media is one herd I hope that collectively throws itself off a cliff.

      I don't see a place for them in a Independent Scotland because they will always act against the interests of the overwhelming majority of Scots and in the interests of an unaccountable minority.

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  31. I 'm wondering this morning, assuming this poll is reading a real phenomenon, if the SNP GE rhetoric of Smith not being enough, not being the Vow, of going to Westminster seeking DevoMax has worked. In conjunction with the Scotland Bill, which thanks to the 56 has had British MSM coverage. Add in the EVEL thing that got temporarily seen off. The penny has dropped amongst that section which voted 'Not Yet' to give WM one more chance. This doesn't have to depend on the Vow, just consistent with it.

    But events since have made it abundantly clear that WM will NEVER give us FFA/DevoMax. That is simply not on offer under the Union. The miserely, power hoarding for power's sake nature of the Union has been laid bare. The British MSM's fascination with the 56 has meant MSM consuming No voters have been exposed to this.

    I think thanks to the Tories' instincts and Cameron's tin ear the Union as busted flush has been exposed and people are turning away. Add in the EU ref polling where it seems at least possible England might drag us out Europe and people may be wanting to jump before they are pushed.

    The EU Referendum will push the worst sort of Little Englander Eurosceptic into our homes constantly. I hereby predict Yes support to rise during the Euro Ref. IF I'm right it will. Though will any of the pollsters be measuring it?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Re TNS methodology:

    I was phoned by them on Tuesday and asked a load of questions about food safety.

    So is it only political polls that they conduct face-to-face?

    ReplyDelete
  33. I took part in this poll, 1st time ever I've been phoned by them. The guy said they were struggling to find 18-24 year olds to vote, I told him they were all yes...anyway, I'm not in that age category unfortunately!

    I am sure he asked me how I voted before, he asked so many questions though, Corbyn related questions that made me think it was Labour, but then I thought, there is no way they would be polling on him and wasting money...

    Great poll, but we have to remember that this without a blitzcreig of negative media, there are still scared yes voters out there, happy to say yes now, but come the cold light of the vote, they waiver.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 3, 2015 at 8:57 PM

    The Scotsman did a good truthfull article about the Nat sis today. No public debating and all singing from the same hymn sheet. Sounds like 1930s Germany, But of course the Nat sis want Franfurt to dictate our currency and economics.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think if we were to filter out the words "Nat" and "sis"(what ever that means) from your comments we would be left with very little.
      You add little to our debate of any substance.
      As a direct result of Your British state's actions,we are seeing people being transported to and around Europe in vehicles designed to ensure they do not reach their destination.
      Sound familiar Mr. GWC

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 3, 2015 at 9:56 PM

      Could you try to comment on my comment. I think Nat sis is appropriate.

      Delete
    3. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

      Delete
  35. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 3, 2015 at 10:44 PM

    Seems the Scotsman was right. Silence and no debate. And why did the Nat sis change their minds on NATO when their membership is Anti? Was it a temporary ruse to convince the Scots you were serious about shared defense. You will have to come clean sometime.

    ReplyDelete
  36. It looks as though James needs to close the comments while he is on vacation. The trolling is way past silly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think glasgow working class is a very bitter Jim Murphy.

      The clues are in what he says and the name he has chosen

      Delete
    2. He's a 'Unionsist.

      LOL. See what I did there. ROLF. God I'm so funny LMAO. I'm going to use that in every LOL post from now on ROLF+LMAO.

      ;-)

      Delete
    3. Careful SS, you're like one 'shrieking' away from going full Mick Pork there. :)

      Delete
    4. So what...the trolls aren't there to be petted,

      Delete
    5. I think James knows exactly what he's doing...leaving us to sort them out. Well we can either ignore them completely or have a bit of fun watching them scratch themselves to death. Nasty little creatures. Be assured they hate themselves more than we ever could.

      Delete
  37. Let them sodding well troll, they're feeling threatened now and what we're seeing is them flailing their wee dying troll legs in the air. Enjoy.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Why are these trolls still on here. Don't they have call centres to man for Blair McDougal!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 4, 2015 at 7:38 PM

      Wee eck feels more comfortable in the company of faith people. The wee Telly Tubby Taliban has spoken. Why are the so called socialists in the Nat si party so silent?

      Delete
  39. Aww sweet. Wee troll came home from....ahem...work, had his tea and started trolling. He must be the best company in the swamp.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 4, 2015 at 9:12 PM

      It just shows how the Nat si supporters have decended into stupour. Sad for Scotland and the human race. What happened to the Enlightenment and debate.

      Delete
    2. GLASGOW WORKING CLASSSeptember 4, 2015 at 9:30 PM

      Work! I am Scottish. Get a grip.

      Delete
  40. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 4, 2015 at 9:26 PM

    Aye well deep depression in Scotland a bunch of other Nat sis have gubbed our fitbae team. The home of Stalin prevailed. Polls show !!#

    ReplyDelete
  41. James - just completed a panelbase poll - so hopefully we'll have some more results to chew over soon. Independence / Holyrood voting intention, plus performance of Nicola/Kezia and thoughts on devolving more powers. Also a somewhat biased question asking about what should be done with income tax in Scotland: the options were essentially increase basic rate+spend more/decrease basic rate+spend less/leave same - nothing about the higher rates/bands.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Colour me sceptical. I still can't see much reason for a No voter to have turned into a Yes since the referendum. What do we know now that we didn't then?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The probability of a Tory WM Government for the next couple of decades?

      Delete
    2. Voting No was effectively a guarentee of prolonged periods of Conservatives rule in the future. Perhaps people thought Labour was going to win this year, but the Conservatives would have remained the UK's natural party of government. So I find it hard to believe that the No result had much to do with people thinking Miliband was going to come to their rescue.

      Delete
    3. Further cuts to the welfare state? No actual useful powers for Scotland? Trident renewal? House of Lords expansion? Large Oil discoveries in the North Sea? Torys trying to kill our green industry? A skewed electricty market for Scottish producers? Shall I go on?

      Delete
    4. No has been in decline since early 2013; this poll is just a natural progression of this rather than any sudden big swing. Steady No to Yes rather than any big jump.

      At the same time, DKs have been moving to Yes equally steadily. These have mainly come from the over 65's who had a large DK group. They seem to be catching up with the under 65's who back independence in majority and have done for some time.

      This is also our first post-budget poll. There is evidence that many of the new Yes are coming from C2DE groups, e.g. those getting some form of welfare.

      In the referendum, people in full time work voted Yes in majority. Those receiving some form of welfare, be they pensioners or those working part-time and getting tax credits, housing benefits...voted No (see MORI tables). They are now seeing these slashed, leaving them desperate. George destroying the union...

      Delete
    5. There's a common misconception that those 'doing ok' voted No to protect that. However, that's not true; people in full time work and so 'doing ok' voted Yes. It was those more reliant on the welfare state that voted No. Now they are reaping that whirlwind sadly.

      The destruction of the welfare state by the Tories marks the end of all British things in Scotland; this process starting in 1979. All we are left with is the discredited BBC.

      Delete
    6. The academic 'Scottish Referendum Study' also showed that the belief significant more devolution would come with a No shot up 10% after the vow. This was undoubtedly a factor in the last minute swing back to No. Of course it was all a lie; something everyone can see now.

      Delete
    7. I think we may, over the next year or so, be witness to the Mother of all Buyer's Remorse. These new converts to YES will be the loudest voices screaming for IndyRef 2.

      Delete
  43. "Colour me sceptical. I still can't see much reason for a No voter to have turned into a Yes since the referendum. What do we know now that we didn't then?" says Keaton.

    See Pantone 300 above: "Cruel tory austerity, EVEL, attacks on disabled, trident renewal, New Labour and media attacks on Corbyn, EU referendum, bombing Syria, Abolishing welfare state, Peers and MPs raping and murdering children, stealth privatisation of NHS and other public services, TTIP, erosion of human rights, increased inequality, promotion of aristocracy as ruling elite, no new powers of any significance, treats Scotland like a colony."

    ReplyDelete
  44. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 5, 2015 at 10:23 PM

    Another referendum will be a bonus for the Nat sis. Another two years without policy discussion and indeed no discussion from them while they adopt failed Tory education policy. And wee King Jum Eck only likes the company of the faithful. Bring back the Enlightenment and get the Nat sis oot. SAVE SCOTLAND.

    ReplyDelete
  45. I wonder if the Bookies would be paying out on a Yes vote the day before a Referendum on this poll or a series of Yes polls. Didn't some of them pay out on a No vote a day before the last Referendum?

    It is just a poll and I still don't trust any of them. How many of them predicted a Tory majority at Brit GE? Health warnings apply especially if we get another Indy Referendum with some 800,000 postal votes cast. Perhaps Ipsos Mori didn't use vote recall for that reason as the Postal voters have vanished and they have trouble finding a lot of Naw voters?.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Survation EU referendum poll for The Mail on Sunday:

    Stay: 49
    Leave: 51

    Scottish subsample (83 people, for what it's worth):

    Stay: 53
    Leave: 47

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Westminster VI:
      55% SNP, 6% Green, 15% Lab, 13% Con

      On average, Tories still well ahead UK-wide and increasing their lead. No sign of any Corbyn bounce certainly!

      Delete
    2. To be fair, I don't think I've ever seen anybody predict a Corbyn bounce!

      Delete
  47. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 6, 2015 at 12:08 AM

    How many Scots Nat sis would move to England or elswhere in the event of Nazi lism. How many who voted for Nazi lism would admit to voting for it. Why do Nat sis want to hand power to Herman the German? What the F has happened to the Scots. Is the booze contaminated?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Edinburgh Working ClassSeptember 6, 2015 at 10:13 AM

      Salt and sauce!

      Delete
    2. When will you dissappear troll. Have you not got work to go to?

      Delete
  48. James,this is the first time I have commented on your column and I must admit it is because of your resident troll,Glasgow Working Class. This guy is hilarious.His grammatical errors,punctuation,spelling and all-round massacre of the English language make him an almost National Treasure.I love this guy,please do not discourage him.Reading his mince makes my day.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I think Gwc is secretly Cathy Jameston.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Anon 3.24AM is right....let's enjoy...won't be long till he self destructs like Aldo.

    ReplyDelete
  51. A while back I did a best fit trend for all the poll data I could find. I anchored it on the referendum results. It predicted that on data going back 15 odd years that independence would become the majority opinion. The trend indicated a date of around the end of September but these things are vague by nature being biological. But the the trend is slow and steady as lava and seems to be as unstoppable. Just see how it continued despite every tactic last year.

    I think as it becomes a clearer majority the might accelerate and catch the last unionist by surprise causing them to make some nasty panic decision which could harm a lot of people. The quiet majority they think still exists is quietly dying of old age. Because that seems to be the basis of the change generational. A unionist generation being replaced by a younger one that has a settled will on independence in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Has the game changed yet?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. See above.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 6, 2015 at 11:21 PM

      James had fun commenting on your blog. One thing is clear your devotees do not believe in democracy I wonder if you do! Denying the right of the majority and the rights of minorities is a dangerous game and as we see civil war is an ugly ever present scenario when fundamentalist idiots prevail.

      Delete
  53. I've not been on this thread for a while, but I would just like to make a few things clear:

    1) I am not anti EU. I will vote to stay in. I eat kippers for breakfast - I don't vote for them.

    2) The poll showing a Yes lead wasn't weighted by 2014 vote. It also has a very low numbers of undecided - 3%. It's usually double that - or more.

    I suspect those who believe we have reached a crossover point will be somewhat disappointed by polling in the next few months.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Who cares about your beliefs Aldo, you're just a troll, and not really a very annoying one at that, sorry. Your neediness comes through so clearly that it's almost embarrasing.

    ReplyDelete