Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Breaking : Survation telephone poll underway

I've been contacted by a reader whose daughter has just been polled by Survation over the phone.  Questions included Yes or No to independence, Holyrood voting intention, and whether Jeremy Corbyn makes you more or less likely to vote Labour.

It's rare for Survation to conduct Scottish polls by phone (they generally use their volunteer online panel), but it's not completely unheard of.  We saw two telephone polls from them immediately before the referendum, and one immediately afterwards.  The first of the pre-referendum polls was commissioned by McDougall HQ, and unusually for a No campaign internal poll, was published - probably because they were panicking about the polling narrative in the media and wanted to calm things down.  The second was an eve-of-polling special for the Record, who in normal circumstances save money by commissioning online polls from Survation.

The new poll could be a private commission from Labour, in which case it'll never see the light of day, but I think it's more likely that a newspaper is splashing out on a telephone poll to mark the anniversary of the referendum.  If so, it's going to be absolutely fascinating to see what the findings are on independence, because this will be the first time we've ever seen the combination of a 'real world' data collection method (which in recent weeks has produced clear Yes leads) and weighting by recalled referendum vote (which more often than not has produced very slender No leads).  I genuinely don't know what to expect.

We'll also get the first meaningful pointer to whether the SNP's massive Scottish Parliament lead has been dented by Corbyn becoming UK Labour leader.

16 comments:

  1. Survation released a telephone poll of ~500 ethnic minority Scots earlier today (commissioned by an academic at Strathclyde). Conducted in July/August.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Final-Strathclyde-Tables-5e0m21.pdf

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  2. The tax credit cuts letters are not long away now. That should create a big swing.

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  3. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 16, 2015 at 9:13 PM

    Strange thing to say that not receiving state benefits will create a swing! Well paid jobs and education should create a swing.

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    Replies
    1. People in full time work support independence in strong majority. It was those dependent on the British welfare state that voted No to protect that.

      George is going to whip that protection from beneath their feet, then have another line of cocaine and laugh at them for voting No.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 16, 2015 at 11:10 PM

      Are you sure about that!

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    3. Private and public sector employees alike are more yes than average.

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  4. Well we just had a da of the Brit Nat media telling us sweaties that we should go home to Labour because Jeremy can turn water into wine and then walk on it. Hello Lazarus!

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 16, 2015 at 11:15 PM

      Are you sure about that or are you a fan of Skier?

      Delete
  5. The benefits apply to older people as well. That group voted no in the majority. Take away their benefits and boom..they will change their tune. Certainly it was the middle classes and older people who helped BT. Some younger benefit claimants were also no voters.

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  6. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 17, 2015 at 12:18 AM

    You seem obsessed by benefits. My generation worked and got a few bob tae help in between jobs. You are out of touch with workers. Scottish people will need tae work and pay lots of tax to pay for the Nat si project. Honesty required from Nat sis.

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    Replies
    1. You wouldn't know what it meant to be honest anymore GWC

      You have spent far too long on here now twisting, turning, spoiling, obfuscating and abusing logical arguments and decent commentators.

      Do you even know, or can you remember, what the truth and honesty look and feel like anymore?

      Or has it been lost in your soul alongside the bile and racist overtones you casually throw out in nearly every response?

      Your entire existence and history on this blog can be summed up quite neatly in a few lines -

      You post nothing of substance and very rarely post anything of relevance

      You're happy to throw the word 'Nat si' (sic) out in 75% of all your posts hoping to somehow casts aspersions on the majority of the electorate in this country...(playground behaviour)
      .
      You constantly seek attention, something I suspect you fail to receive much of in real life, given the amount of time you spend on here posting your inanities and banalities. and quite frankly given what you do present to us on here, you'd be hard pressed to find a discerning adult, let alone child, who'd want to spend any time in your company

      I feel sorry for you, as I'm sure many others do, when they look at your constant attempts to spoil other people's enjoyment on here.

      Debate is welcome, and actively encouraged, but what can you honestly say you bring to the party?

      To be fair though, and as we've been constantly reminded in election after election recently, the Scottish electorate aren't daft and they will quickly and easily see through you and see you for what you really are.

      But do carry on and don't let me try and stop you

      You serve a purpose, you are the invisible face of one side of the ongoing debate we are having in Scotland, and I think I can say almost unequivocally, you are doing a grand job for my side.... any undecided voters who may stray this way couldn't fail to be impressed by you




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    2. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 17, 2015 at 1:12 PM

      So if what I say gives you some advantage why the long winded comment containing absolute nonsense?

      Delete
  7. Why do any of you give the attention seeking moron the time of day?
    Ignore him completely and he will go away and join his fellow bigots and Scotland haters on the pages of the North Britisher,DM or Torygraph

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  8. Hi friends I found an awesome way to get weekly brief traffic report to my website through, http://freeanalyticreports.com

    ReplyDelete