Friday, August 14, 2015

SNP wangle a wondrous win in Wishaw - and bag a by-election belter in Banknock

Well, we certainly haven't had to worry about election withdrawal symptoms over the summer - not only have we been treated to the most bizarre party leadership contest in recent history, we've also been working our way through a succession of Scottish local government by-elections, mostly brought about by the elevation of SNP ex-councillors to the House of Commons.  We have two more of those tonight.

Wishaw by-election result :

SNP 51.1% (+16.6)
Labour 32.8% (-24.9)
Conservatives 10.3% (+2.4)
SSP 3.1% (n/a)
UKIP 1.8% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 1.0% (n/a)


Denny and Banknock by-election result : 

SNP 69.1% (+30.1)
Labour 14.7% (-16.0)
Conservatives 11.6% (+7.9)
Greens 4.6% (n/a)

As Angus McLellan has pointed out in the comments section below, the Denny & Banknock result has to be treated with caution, because Labour suspended their own candidate a couple of days ago after he was alleged to have made sectarian comments.  It's difficult to know how much effect that sort of thing has, because many voters may not even be aware of what's going on.  For what it's worth, the average swing from Labour to SNP in the two by-elections is roughly 22% - that's 3% higher than in the bumper crop of results last week, and is even a touch better than the 21% recorded in the Aberdeen double-header a couple of weeks ago.  Adjusting for the fact that the SNP start from a higher baseline in local elections, it's the equivalent of a 33% or 34% swing at the general election.

20 comments:

  1. The Denny one may be a bit special. That wasn't really a Labour candidate there as he'd been dropped by the party a couple of days back. Still, a win's a win.

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  2. Apart from the most northerly councils where independents tend to dominate, there must be very few wards in Scotland that the SNP would not win at the moment: Annandale? Newton Mearns? Colinton?

    There certainly don't look to be any Labour could win.

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    1. There must be at least a couple in Ian Murray's patch.

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    2. I stood for the SNP in a by-election here in 2013 and got about 13% I think. I struggle to imagine me winning if we had a rematch now, I have to say.

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    3. Actually, there's a by-election soon just up the road from me, in Penicuik. I've offered to go and leaflet because I could do with the exercise, but although everyone is having kittens because the SNP needs to retain the seat to retain power in the council, I don't see how they can lose right now. I understand the retiring councillor (now MP) topped the poll in 2012.

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    4. Well it wont be Labour in Heldon & Laich by election in Moray due on the 1st October. I wouldn't be surprised if a slimy snivelling Independent who is too gutless to admit he or she is a Kipper or a Tory to win it due to a peculiar local demographic called RAF Lossiemouth. Even though I rate the ruling Independent/ Tory coalition on Moray Council as one of the worst in Scotland that gets frequent bad publicity but the tenacious quizzers hang on always by one means or another.

      It is also the council district that contains Gordonstoun School.

      There is another irony in that Roy Williamsons ashes were scattered on Hopeman beach. I think very few folk know that or indeed that he went to that particular school.

      There wont even be a labour candidate standing even though Lossie is the birthplace of one Ramsay McDonald. Not many folk locally know that either.

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    5. Aye, Heldon and Laich is a strange one and I have doubts about a SNP victory - for all the reasons you correctly state. The "slimy snivelling independent" seems to be popular with the elderly - god knows why.

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    6. I forgot to add that Heldon and Laich becomes important fro another reason and that is that the ruling Independent - Tory coalition could be overthrown if the SNP should win this one, especially if Labours 2 councillors went into coalition with the SNP, probably wont happen though as Cllr Sean Morton wouldn't be out of place in the Tory Party since he is another Brit Nat. He was a pretty vocal Naw advocate in the Referendum. His dislike for the SNP follows traditional Labour heidbanger DNA.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. It's the Wishaw one that really warms the cockles of my heart tonight. I used to live there, and moved to Peeblesshire in 2007 (just in time to vote in the game-changing election). In my day, Wishaw just weighed the Labour vote. If you were one of these people who thinks their vote is wasted unless it's cast for the winning candidate, you certainly didn't have to puzzle who to vote for.

    I had the pleasure of not voting for Jack McConnell and Frank Roy and a few more numpties over the years. And as for the council, don't get me started. Wall to wall Labour and as corrupt as hell. The reason I have never voted Labour in my life and never would.

    Now the SNP have got over 50% in a council by-election. I think I'm just going to go away and have a wee greet. In my bed in a bloody Tory stronghold.

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  5. Well you are now in a Tartan Tory stronghold where the working class will prosper and will be the envy of the world.

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    1. Seriously, how many people do you think you're winning over with sneering and Nazi jibes?

      Coolheads Prevail

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    2. try running that past me again? Which part of the comment was a Nazi Jibe?

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    3. Jimmy Glesga is a troll who has spent the last few weeks referring to SNP supporters as "Nat sis" - which is presumably supposed to be a cross between Nazis and ISIS.

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    4. His real name is James McGibbon. Google 'nat sis left foot forward'.
      I have no idea if he is related to the McGibbon that stood for UKIP in Glasgow.

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  6. Poor SNP! They lost the referendum, their Westminster contingent is useless, and now the leadership is running away from independence.

    So they console themselves with local authority by election victories.

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    1. Edna Welthorpe (Mrs)August 14, 2015 at 7:42 PM

      Have a lie down dear.

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    2. It's the SNP members that will need to lie down, once the SNP manifesto for Holyrood is published.

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  7. Aldo go back to sleep and keep dreaming about your lovely referendum win. We've all moved on now.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, sure! (Picture Father Ted leaning over and giving a little wink)

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