I can't totally vouch for the accuracy of these figures, because it's difficult to find an exhaustive list of opinion polls for tomorrow's crucial referendum in Greece, but as a far as I can see an average of all the polls conducted entirely since July 1st produces the following numbers...
Between the options of YES and NO on the institutions proposal, which one would you choose?
In other words, it's far, far, far too close to call. The bookies' expectation (and therefore by automatic extension Neil Lovatt's expectation) that Yes will win is probably based on two main factors - the theory that voters tend to break for the more conservative option when it comes to the crunch, and also the modest momentum that Yes has enjoyed over the course of the ultra-truncated campaign. We'll soon discover whether that reasoning proves well-founded.
However, you don't actually have to wait on tenterhooks for the result, because PB's David Herdson has, in his trademark unassuming style, told us what will DEFINITELY HAPPEN regardless of whether it's a Yes vote or a No vote -
"The act of a snap referendum was, however, perhaps predictable as the equivalent of a student sit-in or protest march, which is the kind of politics Syriza is familiar with: the belief that a demonstration of solidarity and causing enough of a fuss will force opponents to grant concessions.
Those tactics work rarely enough in the workplace or the university, never mind the conference chambers of government, which is why Syriza has signed its own government’s death warrant."
David goes on to congratulate himself on being a pro-austerity Tory, and therefore right about absolutely everything. It would save a great deal of time if the rest of us would just grow up and accept that.
Still, I'd just like to gently say that I'm not sure David's logic is entirely solid on this particular occasion. He assumes that a Yes vote will lead immediately to the Greek government's resignation. Will it? Quite possibly, but I'm not 100% convinced. He also assumes that the centre-right New Democracy would win any subsequent general election, and that's where I'm much more confident he's going astray. Greece has a barking mad electoral system, which effectively turns PR into a winner-takes-all affair. Syriza could easily win a fresh general election on a substantial minority vote similar to that won by Cameron's "One Nation" Conservatives in this country, and after a tight referendum I think that would be the most likely outcome. Why would a significant chunk of the 45%+ of voters who had just voted No to austerity in a referendum suddenly start to vote for pro-austerity parties at a general election? That's the only way Syriza could lose (as long as the party itself doesn't fracture, which may be a risk).
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RevStu is rightly proud of a new Panelbase poll which shows that Wings Over Scotland is now the third most popular source of political content in Scotland, with 10% of the population reporting that they visit the site at least once a week for that specific purpose. However, just to inject a small note of caution, this is one of those rare occasions where we can say with confidence that an online poll is likely to have produced a slightly misleading result, because we know that politically-committed people who use the internet a great deal are over-represented in volunteer online polling panels. We'd really need a telephone poll to get a more accurate result - my guess is that it would still show the alternative media doing extremely well, but not quite reaching the giddy heights suggested by Panelbase.
For example, the poll suggests that NewsShaft is visited by 2% of the population for political content every week - that would imply that they get well over 100,000 unique visitors per week (I say 'well over' because any Scottish political site also gets visitors from outside Scotland). I don't know what their actual figures are, but I would guess that they're probably a bit lower than that.
Incidentally, Scot Goes Pop had 12,500 unique readers on Tuesday of this week. That's far and away the most it's ever had in a single day - I think the previous record high was somewhere between 6000 and 7000. It came completely out of the blue, and was plainly caused by the outrage over the cheers at Westminster after the huge 56-3 Scottish majority in favour of Home Rule was overturned by English MPs.