I've just been belatedly catching up with the datasets for the YouGov poll that was published in the Sunday Post. I was hoping to be able to tell you the unrounded figures on the independence question, but unfortunately we're back to our old problem of YouGov secrecy - there isn't enough information to make the calculation. By a process of deduction, the Yes vote must be somewhere between 46.8% and 47.5%, and the No vote must be between 52.5% and 53.2%, but it's not possible to narrow it down any more than that.
The datasets are more useful on the question of what impact a pledge for a second referendum would have on the SNP's vote at next year's Holyrood election. Although the headline figures showed that 11% of respondents would be more likely to vote SNP and 15% would be less likely to do so, that wasn't quite as illuminating as you might think - if it was SNP voters saying they're more likely to vote SNP, for example, that might just be people saying that they're more likely to do what they're planning to do anyway. What really matters is how many of the SNP's voters would be alienated by a referendum pledge, and indeed how many voters from other parties would be won over. The findings on that point are fascinating.
7% of people who voted SNP three weeks ago say that they would be less likely to vote for the party next year if another referendum is promised, and an additional 1% say they would not vote SNP anyway. But 2% of both Labour and Liberal Democrat voters say that a referendum pledge would make them more likely to switch to the SNP - and even more extraordinarily, 2% of Tory voters, 4% of Labour voters, and 6% of Liberal Democrat voters say they will vote for the SNP next year anyway. We haven't had a full-scale Scottish poll since May 7th, but this may be the first indication that the SNP are enjoying a honeymoon effect, and that their support has crept up further from 50%.
If we "just for a bit of fun" adjust this month's results on the basis of how people say their votes might be changed by a new referendum pledge, the SNP would be left with 48% next year - enough for a second overall majority, as long as SNP voters don't drift off to other parties on the list. In reality, that's a meaningless figure, because people's voting intentions will change between now and May as a result of issues that have nothing to do with independence referendums - but it's a useful illustration of how the unionist parties may be overestimating the traction they can expect to get from banging on about the "threat" of Indyref 2.
22% of SNP voters say that they would be more likely to vote for the party again next year if there's a referendum pledge. That's mostly meaningless, but perhaps not entirely - there are other pro-independence parties, after all, and it could be that passionate supporters of independence would be more likely to stick with the SNP on the list if they're given some "red meat" to vote for. That would obviously help to minimise the dangers of a split vote on the list that we've been discussing in recent weeks.