Wednesday, May 6, 2015

SNP lead by 20+ points in enchanting Election Eve poll from YouGov

Unexpectedly, we've been given one more full-scale poll from YouGov before we reach polling day (and I gather we may also have an equally unexpected Survation poll later).

Scottish voting intentions for tomorrow's UK general election (YouGov, 4th-6th May) :

SNP 48% (-1)
Labour 28% (+2)
Conservatives 14% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)
Greens 1% (n/c)
UKIP 1% (-1)

Respondents were additionally asked how they would vote in their own specific constituency, producing a very slightly larger SNP lead -

SNP 48%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 14%
Liberal Democrats 7%
UKIP 2%
Greens 1%

These numbers are marginally better for Labour than the three most recent YouGov polls.  That doesn't necessarily mean there's been a late recovery for the party - they could just be a touch on the high side in this poll due to normal sampling variation, and that theory is supported by the fact that today's Panelbase poll suggested a further small increase in the SNP lead.  However, the Survation poll may make the situation clearer.

UPDATE : The Survation poll is out - full details, plus more analysis of the YouGov result, will appear in a fresh post HERE.

20 comments:

  1. 48-28 on standard VI

    48-27 when asked to think of constituency.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k7juya7b2u/Scotland_Tables_Website.pdf

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    1. 48-28 are the headline figures - after controlling for likelihood to vote and asking about constituency.

      48-26 without LTV or constituency adjustments

      48-27 with constituency adjustment only.

      Perhaps suggest that there will be some tactical voting for Lab, but it's pretty limited.

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  2. Replies
    1. Nah. Unusually it looks like the filtering by likelihood to vote and the constituency VI adjustment actually helps Labour a little bit.

      The main VI is SNP 48, Lab 26. This then becomes 48, 27 when asked to think of constituency and then becomes 48, 28 after controlling for likelihood to vote.

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    2. I know, was just joking & having a wee dig at some who were saying Labour will come-back a month ago. Standard of error & all that also :P

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  3. Latest Scottish Westminster poll (YouGov):
    SNP - 48% (-1)
    LAB - 27% (+1)
    CON - 14% (-1)
    LDEM - 7% (-)

    on intention to vote - margin of error stuff. I have been quite surprised and pleased the SNP vote has remained steady for such a long time now and not the drop we have seen in a few Westminster elections in times past. Looks good for tomorrow.

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  4. ps. two polls issued today showing the SNP vote at 48%. Gap bigger in this election than the Holyrood election in 2011.

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  5. This must be the late surge Jim Murphy predicted. Ah well, the Nats had a good run.

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  6. Survation will also be issuing a Scotland-wide poll this evening...

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    1. FWIW, the Survation GB poll (Scottish sample ~300) has SNP 54, Lab 23.

      http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Final-GE2015-Mirror-Poll-4c0d8h8.pdf

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  7. Daily Record shites out of backing Labour on its front page!

    https://twitter.com/nickeardley/status/596059955612033024

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    1. I think that's quite a good front page, actually. It contradicts the oft-made assertion that, if Cameron manages to hang on, it's the fault of voters in Scotland who voted against him.

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  8. SNP - 45.9%
    LAB - 25.8%
    CON - 15.0%
    LD - 7.1%
    GRE - 2.6%
    UKIP - 2.4%
    OTHER - 1.3

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    Replies
    1. That's using the "ballot paper" method, so isn't comparable with their previous polls.

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  9. BREAKING: New Scottish Survation poll.
    SNP - 45.9%
    LAB - 25.8%
    CON - 15.0%
    LD - 7.1%
    GRE - 2.6%
    UKIP - 2.4%
    OTHER - 1.3%

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  10. missed out Survation!

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  11. A vote of 48 per cent for the SNP tomorrow would be tremendous. They need to get the vote out, that is all that remains, then we can see whether the polls will be translated in results.

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  12. Survation poll

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/election-2015-exclusive-daily-record-5649340

    SNP 49
    Lab 25
    Con 16
    LD 6

    Using their "ballot paper" method (showing candidate names):

    SNP 46
    Lab 26
    Con 15
    LD 7

    Willie Rennie seems to be getting ridiculously over-excited. LD on 32.5% in the Highlands using the "ballot paper" method (22.7% without). That would still mean them losing most of their seats.

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  13. Have a look at the actual Daily record article on this here http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/election-2015-exclusive-daily-record-5649340

    You have to go halfway down to get to teh headline numbers which are actually as follows
    SNP - 48.9%
    Labour - 24.8%
    Con - 15.5
    Lib - 5.9%

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  14. I keep expecting things to go wrong...Seems to good to be true.

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