Thursday, May 7, 2015

One thistle on a badge, all the polls still gleaming, seven months of hurt, never stopped me dreaming

Oh dear.  The title was originally going to read "the Poll of Polls still gleaming", because I'd taken on board your requests to calculate a final Poll of Polls update, and was just about the press 'publish'.  I then noticed that I had included three polls that shouldn't be there, and excluded five polls that should be.  The nerves are jangling so much that I think I'm just going to leave it at that.  Suffice to say that the SNP would probably have been in the high 40s (in my incorrect calculation they were on 48.0% and Labour were on 26.2%).

Labour "insiders" have told the Guardian that they expect to hold seats in Glasgow that they really shouldn't be holding - it's obviously impossible to know whether that's the truth, a bluff, or a half-bluff, but please use it as motivation to keep the get-out-the-vote effort going until the very last second at 10pm.  In many places you can just turn up, volunteer your services, and you'll be told what to do.  (And if anyone wants to leave details of where to go in specific locations, feel free to leave a comment below).

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If I can be permitted a brief moment of self-indulgence, this blog has had 40,421 unique readers in the last month - that's 10,000 higher than in the month leading up to the referendum.  Does that mean the election has been bigger than the referendum?  Obviously not, but it's amazing how close we've got to a repeat of the same intensity.

Even allowing for the fact that a substantial minority of readers are from far-flung places, I reckon that roughly 1% of the entire population of Scotland has visited Scot Goes Pop at some point in 2015 so far.  Not bad for a little blog that started out in 2008 with an average of (literally) three readers per day!

19 comments:

  1. Well done, James - you richly deserve the success (even if this is a thoroughly ropey title for a post).

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    1. Count yourself lucky - the original plan was "Rule the Poll of Polls! The Poll of Polls rules the waves! It shows that Scots are very, very unlikely to ever, ever, ever be slaves!"

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  2. Sounds like nonsense to me james. Usual tripe they try to pass off as realpolitik

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  3. Sounds like canvassing generated optimism to be but I'd imagine, especially in parts of Glasgow, people probably are still saying on the doorstep that they will vote Labour when in fact that intend to vote SNP. This could be for deep-seated family reasons or local connections, so that they will just not publicly defer from the tradition of being a Labour sheep and putting a cross in their box.

    There is also the fact that there have been some suggestions that turnout may be lower than expected in some areas and in many of the Glasgow constituencies turnout is low anyway and even was for the referendum (compared to the rest of Scotland). These Labour people might feel confident that their GOTV operation can have an impact.

    All just straws in the wind at the moment. It wouldn't surprise me though if they keep a couple of their Glasgow seats but let's face it even if Labour somehow, and contrary to all expectations and expert predictions, get 10 seats or more, that is still a colossal and epoch defining generational shift away from Labour since 2010 and towards the SNP. We are talking consolation here. However there will be Labour people, such is their inured delusional world view, who take comfort from such things. Scottish society needs a re-invigorated Labour party, but who can do it? No-one on the current roster anywhere as far as I can see.

    Anyway, I hope everyone voted and has fun watching the results come in!

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  4. Is turnout looking high? At 5pm at my local polling station there were apparently only 8 registered people left who hadn't voted.

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    1. David Clegg of the Record claims the turnout is 20% down on the same time on referendum day. 65% would be respectable by recent standards, but couldn't really be described as high. Maybe there'll be a late rush - it's a nice evening (where I am, anyway).

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    2. On Twitter, SNP Penicuik suggesting 75% turnout so far, although obviously that's only at one polling station.

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    3. "20% down" could mean 20% of the turnout, i.e. the turnout to date is 80% of the turnout to date in the referendum. That would imply a total turnout of 70%.

      To be honest, either 65% or 70% would be fine for the SNP as long as its intended supporters (as indicated in the polls) turn out in good numbers.

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  5. I am sorry to say my fraud alert twitches every time a Labour or mainstream source tells us to expect them to do better than any rational indication. Not long now before the postal ballots are mixed in before counting. Have still never heard a rational expectation of why they do that.

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  6. A good drive?
    I often take the bus which passes Moray Golf Club. The club always has four large flags flying outside the club house: Moray GC's own flag; the Saltire; the union flag; and a final one which varies [according to visiting golfers from overseas?]. Anyway, today, a naked mast without the union flag. Maybe it's at the menders?

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    1. Perhaps the knackers yard is more appropriate

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  7. I went back and read the guardian update on scottish branch. Its followed up by a comment regarding undecideds, 'going back to the devil they know', which, well, may have some truth to it, but I would think some will also break the snps way. Not only that but if turnout is 65%, that is not high, so it may also indicate that undecideds, arent voting.

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    1. The Guardian has reached Telegraph, Daily Mail style coverage of Scottish politics.

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  8. Bookies still evens SNP + 50. They don't listen to Labour!

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    1. I wouldn't take the betting markets as any kind of indicator at this stage. They were very slow to react to the last UK polls last night which showed a move to Labour.

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  9. Not so anonymous Thomas William Dunlop


    Any feelings on size of the turnout yet?

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  10. All our workers in Dundee seemed pleased with the mood of the electorate today. Plenty of eye contact, winks and smiles in contrast to the previous GE in 2010 where a lot voters put their head down and didn't establish eye contact.

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  11. Ladbrokes tweeting that Jim Murphy now clear favourite to hold his seat

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