Saturday, May 9, 2015

Does Cameron 'get it' yet?

Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at the International Business Times, pondering whether David Cameron is ready to make the huge concessions that will now be necessary if he truly wants to prevent independence.  You can read it HERE.  (It's also on Yahoo HERE.)

17 comments:

  1. James, I don't quite get your comment in your article ; "The honest expectation is that Scotland will accept with equanimity what England would never accept in a million years, and will revert to impotently voting Labour as nature intended".

    Are you expecting people to return back to Labour now?

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    1. Of course not. I wasn't talking about my own expectation, and that should be clear from the preceding sentences.

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    2. Sorry. I'm a little tired from last night's celebrations. I should really have clocked that. You made a very good point. Their expectations only come from their misunderstanding of Scottish people (touch wood). This probably stems from their arrogance.

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  2. Cameron cannot accept the SNP's anti-austerity mandate, to do so would require the conservative manifesto be consigned to the flames.

    FFA is probably the Westminster plan.

    John Tyler

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  3. The fact that Devo Max is now being called FFA leads me to think that FFA is now on the cards.
    Cameron can't be seen to give those Scots the Devo Max that they wanted, but FFA is much more acceptable.

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  4. unchillfilteredMay 9, 2015 at 7:15 PM

    Thanks for providing so many great insights over this period of intense political activity in Scotland. I would be interested to hear if anyone can explain the route now to independence for Scotland, if as seems likely to me the UK votes to stay in Europe and Westminster flatly refuses to allow a second indy referendum.

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    1. I actually think a Tory government is less likely to attempt to block a referendum than a Labour government would have been. Ruth Davidson indicated that she'd had lengthy discussions with Cameron on that topic.

      Personally, I think there's at least a 15-20% chance of Britain voting to leave the EU. It's unlikely but not fanciful.

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    2. I think 15% is putting it high. Tories only put it on the table to reclaim the UKIP vote. The usual last minute MSM Project Fear will ensue to ensure a 'No' result.

      But then I fairly sure that UKIP was a bullingdon club invention to attack the immigrants and draw attention away from the wealthy elite as the real benefactors of austerity.

      SqueuedPerspextive

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  5. Cameron is touting " Scotland will be 'strongest devolved government in the world'".
    You only have to look up Devolved Governments on Wiki to find out that this is a sh!tload of t%rds. It is the weasel wording that counts.

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    1. Those words will come back to haunt him. The Basque Country and Navarre have Full Fiscal Autonomy, and both are devolved governments (Spain is not a federal state).

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    2. Thanks James for the correction. Serves me right for not reading everything in detail. Catalonia fits in how?

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  6. Latest survation UK subsample!:

    66% SNP
    14% Con
    12% Lab
    3% Lib

    Sorry, couldn't help it!

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  7. Incidentally, what happens to the Kellner Correction now?

    Yougov were the worst pollster for 2015 I believe?

    I reckon 2015 past vote weighting should be fine going forward. :-)

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    1. Haven't you heard? It's all the voters' faults. At least according to Kellner.

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    2. Cameron has at most 1 year to come up with proposals which will meet Scottish aspirations.
      Failure to do so will result in the SNP legitimately having another referendum in their manifesto for the Scottish elections based on,either failure to deliver on the vow or no prospect of the real changes Scots want to see within the union.
      He can bluster all he wants about Scots only having a legal right to have another referendum without his permission but that just won't cut it.
      As always,democratic mandate trumps legal "rights",unless he wants to send in the troops (again).
      Westminster no longer has a mandate to run Scotland without our say so.
      Independence,in my view,would probably look very similar to FFA with the need for common DEFENCE arrangements and a few other things continuing to be shared with England.

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  8. I wonder when the Holyrood polls will come. Perhaps with all the attention that the SNP surge has garnered we'll get some more VI polls than usual?

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    1. Fairly consistent up to now with ~60% of MSPs SNP + Green.

      But aye, that's where attention switches now!

      First UK-wide poll from survation as a majority for indy in the Scotland subset, although normal caveats apply!

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