Monday, April 13, 2015

SNP vote soars into the stratosphere in breathtaking TNS poll

TNS have today published their third full-scale Scottish poll since the referendum...

Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (TNS, 18th March - 8th April) :

SNP 52% (+6)
Labour 24% (-6)
Conservatives 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+3)
Greens 3% (-1)

UKIP are not listed because they're literally on zero (there were two respondents interested in a Farage à trois, but they were rounded down to zero).

These figures mean that TNS are suggesting an absolutely astonishing trend over the last few months.  Their first post-referendum poll in January/early February produced an SNP lead of 'only' 10%, which made it look as if they were going to slot in as one of the most Labour-friendly pollsters.  A second poll not long afterwards saw the lead increase to 16%, which was pretty much in line with most online pollsters.  Now, in one fell swoop, the lead has reached 28% - which completes a rapid transformation for TNS and leaves them as one of the two most SNP-friendly firms.  (The other is Ipsos-Mori, which also showed a position of SNP 52%, Labour 24% in their most recent poll - but that was way back in January.)

Now it's true that last week's YouGov poll also showed the SNP lead reach a record level, so it would be wrong to instantly dismiss the TNS poll as an obvious outlier.  It now seems much more likely that there has been further movement to the SNP at some point over the last few weeks.  But the sheer scale of the swing suggested by TNS over such a relatively short period of time is not something that has been recorded by any other firm so far, and it would be just as well to remain cautious until it is.  I can't see any obvious methodological change that would be generating an illusory swing, so it may just be that margin-of-error effects are exaggerating the trend slightly.

But that's not much comfort for Labour - to state the obvious, they desperately need to be gaining ground, and the mounting evidence that the swing is in completely the opposite direction will be greeted with unmitigated horror in McTernan HQ (which in normal circumstances is renowned for being such a happy, jolly sort of place).

52 comments:

  1. James, do you suppose it is possible that Smurfy was tipped the flavour of the TNS polling. It was collected from sometime in March and stopped on the 8th April.

    It might explain his lunatic behaviour in the last "three debates?"

    He is buggered and even if all the unionist vote for just one candidate in each constituency the odds are that really would not be able to hold any great number.

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  2. I make that:

    52% SNP
    43% Conservative & Unionist
    3% Greens

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  3. Perhaps Jim Morphy knew of this in advance? His behaviour is becoming increasingly angry, twitchy and, I would argue, irrational. Perhaps he is starting to realise that he is in serious danger of losing his seat; SNP canvassing returns in East Ren are going well. For all that he has been an MP for almost a couple of decades it is only in the last year people have been truly exposed to him and they don't like what they see.

    Here's hoping all SNP members keep busy over the next few weeks. Watching the Politics Show debacle has certainly stirred me into a couple of extra shifts. It is going to be very interesting to see what the Unionists come up with - they seem to have played their cards so whatever it is will be increasingly preposterous.

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  4. 6% for the LibDems looks a bit on the high side.

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    1. hehehehehhehe......
      I dunno if you meant that analytically or comically, but it was enjoyable anyway.....
      Damn the FibDums. I hope they lose all their seats. How naive I was to think they were progressives. They richly deserve what's about to happen to them.

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    2. couldn't have said it better...I still regret my tactical LibDem vote in 2010

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  5. Incredible that 24% are still intending on voting Labour.

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    1. I agree Geoff are they in old folks homes

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  6. Luigi - Yes where the hell did they do the poll! 6% Libs...Was it in Kirkwall?

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  7. Geoff I would love to see the demographic break down of that 24%. I am guessing 70% over 60's. Maybe SS or James will elighten us!

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    1. Only in 55+ are Labour over 30%; 32% Lab vs 42% SNP for that group.

      Mainly the over 65s causing it.

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  8. 48% SNP / 24% Lab in today's populus subsample.

    Kind of overshadowed a I guess.

    :-)

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  9. 48% is stupendous. I think 52% plus could be a complete Labour wipe out, or verging on it! I think there might be some tactical voting as well. However I suspect it's so disorganised, it will work against the unionists.

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  10. The SNP Pouters are probably going to be self combusting over these polls.

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  11. Murphy was right though. The polls are shifting during the campaign...just not to Labour! LOL

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  12. Weird Guardian / ICM poll of GB, gives Tories 6 point lead.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/261719404/Gdn-ICMApr2015CampaignPoll1

    Sub-sample is equally weird, SNP 44, Con 35, Lab 12 (!)

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    1. James, maybe that's tactical voting taking effect, Lab voters voting Tory to keep the SNP out - or something......

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    2. Beware of sub-samples -

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  13. My thoughts on the 6% are people asked who they will vote for say LD because of tactical voting?

    Ed Balls, today admitted that there will be cuts in Scotland, and Chuka Umma said that it would be Ed Milliband who decided UK Labours election pledges, not Jim Murphy, leaving a 'Big Black Hole', in Jim Murphy's claim, that there would be no need for cuts in Scotland, and that he was the one who would decide what happens in Scotland.

    hehehe!

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  14. george m clarksonApril 13, 2015 at 3:40 PM

    A swing of 12 points is significant ...I will bet that Labour is abandoning Scotland as it is not worth while fighting ,and they can work something out with the SNP later .Murphy has been thrown under a bus and not many people will care
    The canvassing returns will be showing the same picture and Scottish labour are resigning themselves to their fate ,Even Cockers is saying the same !

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  15. James - Surely that's an error. Tories 32% in Scotland. But surely that would play into the SNP hands, as it's the Labour party being hit. SNP are fighting Labour seats.

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    1. It is nonsense and outlier occasionally statistics with throw up weird results. Good that SNP are on 44% despite and obviously rogue poll.

      Seats
      SNP 47
      Tories 9
      LibDem 2
      Labour 1

      Harhar

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    2. Hopefully our LibDem will NOT be one of the 2 Argyll deserves better

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  16. Ashcroft GB poll, Scottish sub-sample: SNP 45, Lab 16, Con 13, Others <9.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ANP-150413-Full-data-tables.pdf

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  17. Gosh, these polls are too true to be true. I my young days decades ago I used to be pleased when the SNP pre 1974 polled into double figures. Gosh again.

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  18. It's obvious what's happened. The 45 Yes are solid as rock support, for the SNP. You have to think they will pull at least another 5 % on top of that, from soft no voters. 50% is not crazy talk.

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  19. At the moment, Jim Murphy has to realise that he might not just be the "man who lost Scotland" for SLAB. He could well turn out to be the man who let the Tories go ahead of them in Scottish VI for Westminster.

    That really would be a proper reflection on the "quality" of the man.

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  20. Awesome poll. I was a bit worried after all the msm spin following lsst weeks debates . Looks like the scots have made up their minds and wont be deflected. Just not listening anymore. Hope nicola turns the screws on devo max in this weeks debate with milliband et al. Something along the lines of scottish prople think your smith proposals are mince and by returning snp at these levels shows they want proper devo max and milliband has a moral obligation to the peoplr to delivrr it

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  21. It ain't over till the fat lady sings. You never know when a Hail Mary pass will succeed at the last.

    I'm keeping on working on it.

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  22. You just know that they aren't finished withy the dirty tricks. I wont even put the radio on tomorrow morning in case it starts spinning and spraying vomit. These polls will only further increase the Press and Media tirade against SNP. I dare not put on TV in case it explodes.

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  23. James I have not posted before, but I have been out canvassing yesterday and today. in a traditional Labour heartland of the heartlands in Glasgow. What struck me , I have been canvassing from the late 90s onwards, is the number of woman especially woman under 40 that are solid SNP.. I know this is totally anecdotal based on a colleague`s and my own canvassing.Nicola seems to be extremely popular with this group . Is anything showing up in polls to back my observation

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    1. Well that's interesting because I was wondering what effect the Smear memo, then the shouting and bullying of Nicola would be having, particularly on women.

      If you look at this poll as well as the YouGov one, you see an SNP increase of about 5%, I wonder if this is women now making up their minds, based on the disgusting behaviour shown towards Nicola?

      Hope so.

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    2. It might be a combination of women liking Nicola and actively disliking Murphy.

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    3. Yeah I think there is something to this. I reckon men liked Salmond's style better, and now women are impressed by Stugeon: net result for SNP is best of both worlds with strong support from men already baked in and support from women on the rise.

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  24. Not anonymous Thomas WIlliam Dunlop, Kuopio, Finland

    I am a it worried about the undecideds. Could it be the case of shy unionist voters, not wanting to disclose their intentions. How much of them would have to cast this vote tactically against the SNP to make a difference? 29 % undecided is still greater than the 28 % lead the SNP enjoys, so it may be very tight in a lot of seats at the end.
    However my opinion, this unlikely as it would need to see almost every undecided plump for Labour/ LibDEm depending the seat in question to make a difference.

    I think we might see the Scottish electorate astound us and deliver a clean sheet for the SNP ( and "granny" the opposition). Just like 2011 again

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    1. A big chunk of that 29% won't vote at all. Certain to vote was 67% and very likely to vote 11%. 56% expressed a firm VI, so that leaves ~15% of the total electorate who are undecided but will vote.

      I suspect more of that group will be unionist, undecided as to which party to support. We saw something similar in the referendum. Yes support hardened with about a month to go, giving some very good polls (the one lead and a few near things). Later on more of the remaining undecideds broke to no, and there was a higher turnout than expected.

      Coming back to this election, that pool of 'undecided' voters should close the gaps somewhat, but it's totally unrealistic to expect that to overturn such a clear lead.

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    2. If 56% of the total electorate gave a firm voting intention and 78% of the total electorate are certain/very likely to vote, surely that still leaves c. 28% of those certain/likely to vote who have not given a voting intention. Or have I misunderstood your figures?

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    3. Turnout won't be as high as 78%. More likely low 70s, maybe high 60s. 56% of the total sample expressed a firm intention. That leaves maybe 15% of the total electorate who will vote but have not yet decided. Labour would have to win the vast majority of that undecided vote, or win over some of those expressing a VI, to make it close.

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    4. Thanks for the explanation.

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  25. Some anecdotal info for you. I am in Moray I have been canvassing my neighbourhood as I did during the Yes campaign. I would say that all the Yes voters are swinging in behind SNP. There are 7 new folk in the neighbourhood since the Referendum, score is 5-1 SNP over Tory with one UD. Nobody votes Lib or Labour in my neighbourhood any more. Last Labour voters died a few weeks ago. 5 folk have died since the referendum, 1 Yes voter and 4 No voters. So from my neighbourhood Yes vote has gone from 63% Yes to 67%. I wonder if that is pattern being experienced elsewhere in Scotland. 2 No voters have actually emigrated since then and riddance to them.

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    1. My gran voted No. So I'm rather in favour of persuading people to change their mind rather than waiting for them to die off.

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    2. Demographics though are in the favour of the Yes vote providing they don't emigrate. I couldn't blame anybody for getting out though. Well not Yes voters at least.

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  26. We've all been saying, this can't happen at the actual election. It's impossible. The SNP is bound to slip back a few points. Over 30 seats will be astonishing.

    Yes, sure, consider it all said.

    But you know, the opposite could happen. There is a tide in the affairs of men, and all that. This could just bandwagon into something completely unanticipated. LPW has an interesting article about how Murphy is on a losing wicket in everything he does.

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    1. http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/if-yolk-sticks.html

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  27. I think the problems the Unionist parties are facing is that, simply put, people don't believe them any more. I have a lot of time for Julian Treasure's theory as laid out at the TED conference last year (https://www.ted.com/talks/julian_treasure_how_to_speak_so_that_people_want_to_listen/transcript?language=en) basically boils down to be decent, honest, enthusiastic, and have respect for others.

    Jim Murphy in particular fails on all of these metrics, and in the age of old media maybe he could have got away with it. Now his sneering mug is seen, shared, discussed, critiqued, disregarded and eventually lambasted by hundreds of thousands of people within minutes of an appearance in the MSM. Net effect is that every appearance, every sneer, every bully boy interruption contributes to the drip, drip, drip of Scottish Labour's spiral of blood letting and eventual recriminations.

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  28. Half expecting Labour renegades to start claiming they're losing this election on purpose so they can make a dramatic comeback next time. Not as ludicrous as some clutching at straws comments from Labour.

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  29. Labour clinging on to the hope that the don't knows will break for them, fair enough, but it won't happen.

    The simple fact is, that earlier polls who asked voters who had expressed a preference, showed that while very few SNP voters felt they might change their minds about who they would vote for, far more Labour voters said they were open to voting SNP.

    I would be confident in saying that a lot of the don't knows, who are not the normal, not likely to vote at all, will in fact be previous Labour voters who have been scunnered by Jim Murphy, so don't know if they will vote Labour...and most of them wont.

    Will they switch to another party? who knows, but I'd imagine that a lot of them will be seeing the rise in SNP % point in polls, and the human herding instinct will cause them to have a far closer look at what the SNP are saying.

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  30. The Undecideds, like the postal vote, is a construct to explain the sudden "defeat" of SNP candidates. Just like they did in the referendum.
    Maggots eating the heart out of what passes for democracy in our modern world.

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