Thursday, April 9, 2015

SNP lead by 14% in the second subsample to be wholly conducted after the 'Frenchgate' smear

The Scottish subsample from today's Britain-wide YouGov poll, conducted yesterday and the day before, shows : SNP 42%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 18%, Liberal Democrats 6%, UKIP 4%, Greens 2%.  This is the kind of result that would have looked entirely typical until the methodological change that YouGov introduced yesterday, but it's now a touch harder to interpret.

For the first time that I can remember in a long, long time, the political weighting in a GB-wide YouGov poll has seen the SNP vote scaled up in real terms - only by a small amount, but it's still a very different story from the routine downweighting we've been used to.  Unlike yesterday, though, the new likelihood to vote filter hasn't boosted the SNP - with or without it, they lead by 42% to 28%.

It really is quite frustrating that the mists of a methodological adjustment have descended at exactly the moment we are searching to see if anything fundamental has changed.  But we'll shortly have more clarity, because a full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov is coming very soon, possibly tonight, possibly tomorrow.  It's very difficult to know what to expect from it - taking account of the new methodology in the GB-wide polls, the subsample figures might be pointing to a small reduction in the SNP's enormous lead, or they might just as easily be pointing to no change at all.  We'll see.

74 comments:

  1. Here's a dumb question.

    The new methodology weights according by likelihood to vote in Jan/Feb. I assume that data is derived from past YouGov polls. In those polls the SNP were significantly downweighted. So if that is how they achieved their 'base line' doesn't that therefore also somehow affect these figures - because they base they are starting off with could be artificially low?

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    1. Yes, but that doesn't alter the fact that the SNP are no longer being downweighted in the way they were. Even if a disadvantage for the party is being 'locked in' by the new methodology to some extent, it does look as if something has changed.

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    2. Having said that, the change might simply be that YouGov are inviting fewer SNP voters to take part in their polls in the first place, because they've also changed the basis on which they send out invites.

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  2. YouGov have updated their constituency nowcast today (SNP 55, Lab 2, Con 1 and LD 1)

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/09/numbers-are-clear-labour-narrowly-ahead/

    The only actual seat change in Scotland is Dunfermline, which has flipped from SNP narrowly ahead to Lab narrowly ahead. A fair number of the SNP leads have been downgraded in status (i.e. "likely" instead of safe, "leaning" instead of "likely", or "close" instead of "leaning"). They describe this as being due to a "very slight softening of SNP support", although they don't quantify it.

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    1. That said, "very slight" suggests it can't be anything more than 2%. Anything more than that and it would be statistically significant / couldn't be described as "very slight". The downgrades more reflect the fact that a lot of the Lab / SNP contests are relatively close, as was shown by the ComRes poll. It's not as if the SNP are polling >40% and Labour are polling <30% *everywhere*.

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    2. Yougov say that 3/5 of proposed SNP seats are actually "too close to call". Fair comment or not? It's all wonderfully/frustratingly complicated to my untutored eyes.

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    3. I think that's a typo. It means that their nowcast only considers 22 of the 55 in the SNP column as "SNP" (i.e. safe). The other 33 (3 out of 5) are in varying degrees of likelihood below that - likely, leaning or too close to call.

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    4. Thanks, James.

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  3. Wife just been polled (looking for me but I wasn't in) she didn't catch who it was by. NE fife, asked voting intention, 2010 recall, candidate prompting, she doesn't know local candidates but interestingly was asked if she knew ming campbell and who she'd prefer out of libdems and snp even though VI was already declared as snp. Any ideas who/ what poll?

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    1. Sounds like a Lib Dem internal poll

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    2. Might conceivably be an Ashcroft poll as well, because he hasn't done NE Fife yet, although admittedly the latter question doesn't sound quite right.

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    3. Quizzed her a bit more about it, they only asked about tim brett and Stephen gethins, she reckons it felt libdem leaning more than objective so I'm inclined to think libdem internal. We're getting a lot of libdem material through the door here. Suspect this is one they really want to/ think they can hold

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  4. Wife just been polled (looking for me but I wasn't in) she didn't catch who it was by. NE fife, asked voting intention, 2010 recall, candidate prompting, she doesn't know local candidates but interestingly was asked if she knew ming campbell and who she'd prefer out of libdems and snp even though VI was already declared as snp. Any ideas who/ what poll?

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  5. New Statesman election site tweeting that the YouGov Scotland poll is "newsworthy".

    Not sure what to make of that. If I had to guess, based on the adjustments to their nowcast, I would guess it was a decrease in the lead / Labour above 30%?

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    1. The only thing that would be truly newsworthy now would be a significant shift in Labour's favour. Unless it's just hype, of course.

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    2. It's obviously a decrease in the lead - it's just a question of how big. "Newsworthy" is troubling, but not quite as troubling as "sensational".

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    3. I think (I hope) it's MoE stuff in the absolute SNP numbers. I wonder though if we will be seeing a decrease in the lead as more tory/ld stragglers go Labour...

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    4. Could be that the movement is still against Labour.

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    5. Yes, if it is a big drop in the lead, it'll be interesting to see whether it's due to Labour picking up Tories and LDs, or if there's been a direct move from the SNP. I guess the latter would be a worse sign.

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  6. I'm voting SNP but I have to say; Ed Miliband's made a good call on the non-doms. Jim Murphy made an appalling reference to the vouchers but it struck a chord to anyone ignorant of the issue. Labour have moved to the left and it wouldn't surprise me if it took back some left leaning SNP, non-nat voters.

    Where have the SNP been on non-dom, zero-hours contracts? The message has been highlighted by Labour. Surprised me, but I tip my hat to Ed Miliband. Hopefully, SNP can start getting more of a message through than simply "strong voice for Scotland". Working people need solid policy commitments too.

    A friendly obervation from an SNP voter.

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    1. Labour have not moved to the left. They are doing their usual pre election thing of making left sound bites.
      Thanks for your concern.

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    2. I am concerned. I want to see 35 plus SNP seats. I agree, can never trust them to deliver on their left soundbites. But non-dom has been a gamechanger by the looks of the polls down south. They sound far more left, I think. And they have, at least, got key pledges on minimum wage.

      I just want the SNP to have key policy commitments too. I don't feel the stronger for Scotland line, although good, can keep the momentum. I understand it can be difficult for the SNP to find a line when much of the Welfare budget is reserved, though.

      Regardless, keeping Labour honest is a good line. Simply want some of the good policies to by more clearly part of the campaign, though.

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    3. Why not make the childcare pledge, for example, the clear distinguishing factor for us?

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    4. Keep up the anti-Trident line. Definite vote winner for the SNP.

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    5. Don't feed the concern troll. Non-Domestic taxpayers and their tax arrangements are an insignificant rusty halfpenny compared to spending on trident, or pfi or london crossrail, sewer system, house of lords etc etc.

      What the english do to themselves is up to them. It's a different country full of foreigners who vote UKIP. Fuck them and you!

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    6. The childcare pledge is a devolved matter, surely?

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    7. I'll believe the Labour spin about non-doms when wee Ed Miliband hands back the £12 Million he received from them and not until then.

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  7. From Anthony Wells (Yougov via his UK polling report blog):

    "Elsewhere, last night’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs). Nothing particularly unusual, but note that YouGov are now on their election footing, meaning they weight by likelihood to vote in a similar way to ICM and Ashcroft polls (so people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote get a weight of 1.0, people who say they are 9/10 likely to vote get a weight of 0.9 and so on). In past elections this has tended to slightly favour the Conservatives, but this time round it isn’t actually making any substantial difference at all. YouGov have also changed their sampling slightly – taking samples from people who polled in January and February (a period when Labour had a very slight lead in the polls) and weighting them using Jan/Feb vote, rather than party ID from back in 2010.
    It also means they are now seven days a week, so we’ll be getting a fresh YouGov poll every night up until the election."

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  8. I would imagine that after the last 7 days any poll is "newsworthy". For example the SNP maintaining their lead in the face of two tough debates and Frenchgate would be very newsworthy.

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  9. Also the Survation subsample for today is SNP 51, Lab 26, for what little it's worth (8-9 April)

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  10. James
    The YouGov subsamples should be compared to the sub-samples we were getting in January, if they match then there has been no change since then. My recollection is that YouGov average sub-samples in January was 42-28 so todays spot on.

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  11. Just read on twitter that YouGov have a full Scottish poll coming out tonight, and they suggest there's been a significant shift, but they wont say to whom.

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  12. Well clearly not to the Snp if they are down grading the seat predictions. :-(

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    1. Absolutely, there's no point kidding ourselves - on the basis of what we've been told, it's highly likely there's been a reduction in the SNP's lead. (In this one particular poll, I mean.)

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    2. Weird yougov say there has been a 'very slight softening' in the SNP vote but that there has been a significant shift in the poll they are releasing. That doesn't add up does it? Unless the shift is from Tories / LDs to Lab.

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    3. Yougov subsets might hint at a bit of Con to Lab. Other poll subsets suggested a touch of the same, although I have SNP opening up the lead again after nikileaks/the debate.

      Labour getting gubbed and the Tories falling to an even lower share of the vote would be great for the SNP. The first is on the cards but 50 odd seats is getting into fantasy land. I'd be fine with a good few less and the Tory vote taking a measurable hit. All three UK party votes down or crashing.

      Would completely screw any Tory-led mandate for governance of Scotland. Same goes for Lib collapse - but that's set too.

      Tories who value the union shouldn't vote Labour paradoxically. By doing so they weaken the main 'strong unionist' party even more.

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    4. What were the last yougov figures?

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    5. SNP 46, Lab 29, Con 16, Others not very much. Published on Monday, fieldwork finished last Tuesday (31st March).

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  13. Panelbase UK:

    Which one of the seven leaders taking part do you think…
    won the debate -
    Sturgeon 31%
    Cameron 26%
    Miliband 22%
    Farage 12%


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  14. Oh, and Survation UK constituency vote (rather than straight VI):
    56.4% SNP
    19.2% Lab
    15.2% Con
    3.1% Green
    3.1% Lib
    2.1% Green

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  15. I'm so concerned too, this really is a very big concern, we should all be concerned that our party, the SNP, which I am a member of, is being outflanked on the left by Labour who are now sounding like a serious option.

    I'm starting to be really convinced by their mrssage and may be tempted to vote for them. In fact I think I will! Yes, I've made up my mind, I'm going to vote Labour, they are just so credible now.

    I'm so concerned about this, it could have a real impact on the SNP who I obviously want to win, oh no!

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  16. Panelbase UK voter thoughts:

    Who do you think Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, would prefer to lead the next UK Government?
    46% Lab
    16% Con
    12% Don't think she minds
    26% DK

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  17. Just seen one source suggesting SNP 40%, Lab 37%. :(

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    1. That would leave only 23% for the other four parties.

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    2. If that's the case, and I hope it isn't, then maybe people here shouldn't be too paranoid about 'concern trollers' discussing strategy. They may or may not have some valid points.

      FWIT, I think the SNP should be doing all it can to hold on to the 45% - focusing on the constitution and Scottish interests.

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    3. What/where is the source? That seems implausible. If Labour were that close in a national poll they would be taking the lead in at least some of the cross-breaks published this week.

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    4. No, that's completely unconvincing. Say the figures are correct then we can really tell very little at this stage other than that those are the figures for this one poll. You'd need a lot more evidence than one poll. As others have pointed out today's subsamples from other pollsters show the usual large SNP lead. The suggestion elsewhere that the non-dom issue had been a game-changer in England is laughable, yet you are suggesting we discuss that seriously?

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    5. Happened to see it being discussed just now on the Pie and Bovril politics forum. The source is unnamed.

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    6. Yeah just saw that on p and b myself, if that's true then we're all as well going home for fuck sakes

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    7. Not sure how that equates to a 'very slight softening' of the SNP vote.

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    8. Well aye, that's not softening, that's pummeling into the earth

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    9. We should hardly need reminding that bizarre yoyoing yougov polling isn't to be taken that seriously. Unless a huge shift in polling gets backed up by the other pollsters then it's an outlier. That's always been the case and it would still be the case even if it wasn't yougov.

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    10. @ Mick

      It's yougov who historically have the widest range / most noise in Scottish polling; far more than any other pollster. Mainly between Lab and SNP. Has shown reversed results from month to month sometimes - labour 1 points ahead, then SNP.

      MORI and TNS never had that problem. Survation neither, but its relatively new.

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    11. 10 points ahead, then SNP... that should be.

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    12. Not just in scottish polling as some of their other polling has bounced up and down at various times but it's certainly a valid point.

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  18. If the SNP can poll around 45 per cent in May, then I think that should be good enough to get at least 30 seats, probably more. I think that 45 per cent of the vote is a realistic target.

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  19. I don't buy these polls that say the SNP are going to win over 50 seats. Anything over 30 seats would be a brilliant result.

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  20. Hell on Earth will be a Lib/Lab pact

    no more powers to Scotland

    I'd be more depressed than sept 19th

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  21. Strange hypothetical YouGov poll of GB, asking people who they would vote for if SNP and PC stood candidates everywhere in GB.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jjf1thmxbe/JoeResults_150408_SNP_Plaid_if_national_VI_W.pdf

    SNP get 11% across GB and PC get 2%. Mostly at the expense of Labour in England, I think.

    The Scottish cross-break (n=163) is SNP 43, Lab 24, Con 21, Others <6. So basically the same as a normal Scottish poll but with slightly more Tories than normal.

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  22. https://yougov.co.uk/results/

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/09/numbers-are-clear-labour-narrowly-ahead/

    This is showing SNP predicted to win 55 seats.. but

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    1. Is this what all the weeping and wailing is about?

      Wings tweeted this an hour ago.

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    2. No.

      The link above is an estimate based on responses to YouGov in individual seats across GB. It reduced the SNP estimate from 56 to 55 seats, but also downgraded the status of a number of the SNP seats (i.e. implying that the lead has closed somewhat).

      The "weeping and wailing" is about a full scale Scottish poll by YouGov due to be released at 10pm. The only clue that's been given to its figures by a reliable source is that it's "newsworthy".

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    3. It was posited as 'newsworthy' indeed, but not in a good way for the SNP. I confess to being worried by the talk. I didn't see how there could possibly be any closing of the gap and thankfully it was the other way round.

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  23. Watch this for a little moral boost! http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2015/04/09/jim-murphy-saviour-of-the-union-the-movie/

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  24. False alarm! SNP have increased their lead

    Now on 49 labour on 25

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  25. Who ever made up that crap on Labour come back. Took a proper radgie man. Not cool haha
    Anyway..

    SNP 49 +3
    Lab 25 -4
    Con 18 +2
    LD 4 +1

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    1. James,

      You (and I can relax). Whilst inputting canvass data have been toing and fro-ing for news)

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    2. *mops brow* I should know better than to trust rumours on a football forum of all places.

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  26. All that fretting was for nothing! Dreadful news for Labour.

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  27. Still.....they had me fooled. I'm away to change my pants.

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  28. Sweet Jesus 49%? You guys had me worried.

    Newsworthy indeed!!!

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