Thursday, April 16, 2015

Here's how the Lib Dems magically get themselves into the lead in (some) of their comfort polling

Slightly surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats have released the datasets for the internal poll of East Dunbartonshire that they leaked yesterday - one of what Ashcroft famously referred to as their "comfort polls".  So they've helpfully made it very easy for us to spot the working of the conjuring trick which has somehow got them (just about) into the lead in the poll, in spite of the word on the ground being that they're well behind, and probably not even in second place.

Here's how it was done...

* The results were weighted by 2010 vote recall.  On the headline numbers, this resulted in respondents who said they voted SNP being weighted down from 53 to 33 (a drop of almost two-fifths), while respondents who recalled voting Lib Dem were upweighted from 73 to 90.  Assuming that a significant proportion of people are probably getting their 2010 and 2011 votes mixed up, this factor alone is sufficient to introduce a huge distortion, and to transform what would have been a comfortable SNP lead into a small Lib Dem lead.

* No other form of political weighting was added to help balance out any distortion from the 2010 weighting (a practice used by some other pollsters, albeit admittedly not Ashcroft).  Respondents were asked how they voted in the independence referendum, producing too big a lead for No, and yet the headline voting intention figures were not weighted by recalled referendum vote.  Again, that alone would have been sufficient to put the SNP in the lead.

* The poll departs from standard good practice by not asking the headline voting intention question at the start of the question sequence.  It's in fact asked fifth.  The big problem is with Question 4, which names the local candidates and asks respondents to rate them.  Unsurprisingly, this works in Jo Swinson's favour, because only 3.3% of the sample have not heard of her, compared to 49.7% who haven't heard of SNP candidate John Nicolson.  (Although Mr Nicolson is a television personality, he's been off our screens for quite a while, and is probably more recognisable for his face and voice than for his name.)

* When the voting intention question is finally asked, it's posed like this : "If the general election was tomorrow, how would you vote in the East Dunbartonshire constituency knowing who is standing?" (my emphasis). People try to keep their responses to polls logically consistent, and if you've just said that you like Jo Swinson and haven't heard of John Nicolson, it's very hard to suddenly say you're planning to vote for John Nicolson, particularly when the question is insisting that you take into account who is standing. So it's likely that some people who plan to vote SNP (or indeed Labour) without being overly fussed about the candidates will have been coaxed into falsely saying that they are going to vote for Swinson. This is the twisting effect of question sequence that was famously illustrated in a Yes Minister scene, in which Sir Humphrey gets Bernard to say he is both in favour and opposed to the reintroduction of National Service.

What's interesting of course is that the Lib Dems have done a large number of these polls, but have only released a small fraction of them. That suggests even a rigged methodology isn't sufficient to produce a favourable result in many seats.

* * *

Have you ever had one of those nightmare journeys over a ridiculously short distance that leaves you wondering if a celestial power is conspiring against you? Yesterday morning I was due to take part in one of Derek Bateman's audio recordings at around 11.30, but the Stagecoach bus I was planning to catch turned up early, and I missed it by literally twenty seconds. So I texted Derek to let him know I would be late. After waiting an eternity, the bus I finally caught managed to shed its drive shaft midway during the journey. I didn't have the heart to text Derek again to tell him the bus had broken down, if only because it would have sounded like a classic "the dog ate my homework" excuse. So instead I hopelessly tried to make up the time by running when I got to the city centre, and I eventually arrived at the studio 50 minutes late. Thankfully everyone was very understanding, although when the recording is put on the website I suspect you'll still be able to hear me gasping for breath!

37 comments:

  1. Also could add to your points, it only asks the favourability of the SNP & Lib Dem Candidates. Missing the Tories, Labour candidates.

    Which frames it as a two-way battle before the voting intention.

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    1. I thought of mentioning that, but I wasn't entirely sure whether the figures for the other candidates had simply been excluded from the datasets.

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    2. Check the Hornsey and Wood Green poll

      http://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/03/Hornsey-Wood-Green-Lib-Dem-poll.pdf

      Labour and Lib Dem named which will overly increase tactical switching for the incumbent I'd imagine !

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  2. A friend who lives in Dingwall has just received a letter (via Lib-Dem HQ) from a "James Murray, 74, Retired Director of a Construction Company" explaining how "I have voted for the Conservatives in the past, but I know that in this election in order to stop the SNP I have to vote for the Liberal Democrats.....the Liberal Democrats have proved that they've got what it takes, having worked with the Conservatives in the National interest and rescuing the economy.....blah blah blah etc etc.... I live in a Lib-Dem constituency too. Will I be getting one too I wonder? Will they bother changing "James Murray's" name? Don't the 2010 election graphs prove that the SNP "have no chance here" anyway? Desperate stuff.

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    1. I live in the same constituency as your friend. I am really curious to know why they did not name the construction company. I can think of a few round here that if they were named would immediately have locals signing up as SNP members.

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    2. We received the same letter too this morning... and we're in Cardross (near Helensburgh) - Alan Reid's constituency.

      Apparently, we're told, its a two horse race between Lib Dem and SNP - and all the helpful Conservative voters are already planning to vote SNP. This'll be news to the local Tory candidate Alastair Redman I'm guessing...

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    3. I am in the North East Fife constituency, I have just received the same letter addressed to my wife and myself, even though I am a long time SNP member, and have never contacted the Lib Dems before.

      How did I get on their data base? and is it legal to contact me, as I have never given them permission to contact me personally?

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    4. They seem to be spreading "James Murray" pretty thinly!!

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    5. Imagine that, the Lib Dems pretending that in real life they're Tories. Don't they know anything? The fools.

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    6. @Dubbieside - they'll be using the electoral register and, yes, it is perfectly legal. All of the parties who have any amount of money at all do this kinf od thing.

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  3. Hmm...

    Second try.

    I look forward to your breathless comments on Bateman's Half Hour.

    Two of my favourite commentators at once!

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  4. From @tighnacoille Helen via JOHN NICOLSON ‏
    Re the LibDem "poll" leaked "exclusively" to numerous publications; the polling company have this to say.. http://survation.com/in-reference-to-recent-liberal-democrat-polling-shared-privately-with-the-media/

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  5. Sympathies James.Reminds me of when I used to use Scotrail, and was always late for work. Trains were too crowded, got stuck in tunnels ,electricity broke in carriages. Train going backwards as junction broken.

    I now drive to work as at least I am in control of the route I take! Still late though!

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  6. I too got the letter referred to above and I'm in Caithness. Here it is BTW for anyone who might be interested..

    http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/smerral/pictures/lib-dem-letter2.jpg

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    1. That James Murray signature is funny, I thought my signature hadn't changed since school, but that one really hasn't

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    2. It's not even that. If "Mr. James Murray" really still can't manage joined up writing, particularly in a signature - as this gentleman plainly can't - after all these years as a supposed top dog in a business empire would you want to advertise the fact? Surely not. It obviously detracts from the quality of whatever argument "he" is attempting to put forward. Or I suppose the Lib Dems thought it would show that "Mr. James Murray" was still at heart a honest, level headed artisan? In any case, it laughingly strikes me as the work a right (or left) handed individual attempting a signature using their other hand. The Lib Dems are really desperate aren't they? Pathetic.

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    3. The imprint at the bottom has an address in London; so much for being the "Scottish" Liberal Democrats.

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  7. Can we get a link to the datasets please?

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  8. Sorry very O/T but before tonight's debate, how are Plaid in the polls, if you know?
    Thanks

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    1. There's a list of Welsh polls here. Looks like they're battling UKIP for third place.

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    2. A YouGov Wales poll came out earlier today:

      Labour 40
      Conservatives 26
      UKIP 13
      Plaid Cymru 12
      Lib Dems 6
      Greens 4

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  9. How many people were polled? 53 SNP and 73 Lib Dem sounds like the total sample size can't have been more than 250.

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    1. It was quoted in one of the articles. More than that, but well under 1000.

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  10. Interesting polling in today's latest YouGov Nowcast poll. They now predict that the SNP will win 50 seats (-5), and detect a shift to Labour from the SNP in Edinburgh East, Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North/Leith over the last week.

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    1. Hopefully this is Con and Lib moving a tad to tactical Labour.

      This is really good for the SNP if it happens. It might mean they get a few less seats, but crucially, the Tory vote falls on 2010.

      The last couple of polls have Con + Lib combined on just 21%. If this falls even further, it's a bloody disaster for unionists. Imagine the Tory vote down on 2010, Lib dem vote collapsed and Labour down big. A vertible hat-trick.

      Also, how could e.g. a Con-Lib coalition hope to even try to justify governing Scotland / freezing out the SNP if 80% or more voted against them.

      I'm keeping fingers crossed for a bit of Tory + Lib tactical. Will be a huge bonus I don't mind not winning a couple more seats for if the polls to come true!

      This is why Ruth and Dave have been getting a little worried and calling for Con voters not to vote for Lab tactically. I would be a really stupid thing to do and a gift to the SNP.

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    2. Edinburgh has traditionally been a tough place for the SNP to get elected using First Past the Post voting system. I think they only won their first seat in Edinburgh in 2007. Given that the No vote was just over 60 per cent in Edinburgh then it looks hard going for the SNP.

      I reckon Tommy Sheppard will win Edinburgh East. The SNP did well in 2010, and Gilmore's majority is one of the smallest in regards Labour and SNP. I think Michelle Thomson has a real chance in Edinburgh West. I am not sure about Edinburgh North and Leith, possibly SNP, although might be close. Edinburgh South is quite difficult, it will be between the SNP and Labour, again may be a close one. I think Joanne Cherry may win Edinburgh South West.

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    3. I can't face another 5 years with Crappy Gilmore as my MP. I will be heartbroken if Tommy doesn't get elected, even if we sweep the board elsewhere. My girlfriend and I are out every weekend canvassing and we're getting very positive returns.

      It's interesting that despite the very well-founded health warnings that James has pointed out on this Lib Dem 'comfort poll' Election Forecast have taken it seriously enough to be now predicting East Dunbartonhire as a Lib Dem hold.

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    4. Surely to goodness that can't be the reason they've changed their forecast - they're serious academics, they wouldn't be taking a party internal poll seriously. Hopefully it's just a weird coincidence.

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    5. I know, it seems bizarre but there it is - I can't think of any other explanation. In the last week or so they've returned to showing Charlie Kennedy getting the boot in RS&L after having revised after the Ashcroft poll showed him not too far behind, which is nice to see.

      They reckon the SNP will take Edinburgh East with a thumping 47% but I have to admit that this Yougov Nowcast is unsettling me a lot. I can't pretend to understand their Bayesian modelling chat so just have to keep chapping doors in the meantime!

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    6. Oh well, I guess this afternoon's news will have Election Forecast running to rectify that!

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  11. In my opinion, the polling has been organised by Ashcroft to paint an eventual 30 SNP seats as some kind of failure.

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    1. That's ridiculously paranoid. What on earth does he have to gain? He's previously shown minimal interest in Scottish politics. He only conducted one poll before the referendum and one post-vote analysis. This lack of interest was probably because a) the opportunities for the Tories have been so limited and b) there were few competitive seats until the relatively recent movement in the WM polls.

      You should get a room with George Foulkes, he's just as paranoid about Ashcroft the other way.

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    2. At least I know they are out to get me!

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  12. MORI sub-sample:

    52% SNP
    19% Con
    16% Lab
    8% Green
    4% Lib
    0% UKIP

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  13. Just had a call from Populus conducting a poll in the North East Fife constituency. As both my wife and I are over 55years old could not do the survey as they wanted younger age groups. Said they may call back tomorrow when doing other age groups.

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