It's been a while since I last updated the Poll of Polls, and I was interested to see how this one would work out, because the Scottish subsamples over recent days have been all over the place. There were a couple of narrower gaps reported by YouGov on Thursday and Friday, but any slight worries we might have had over those were allayed by huge SNP leads in Friday's Populus subsample, and in today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times.
This update is based on seven Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls - five from YouGov, one from Populus and one from Opinium. As a number of us have been pointing out for a few weeks, the new Opinium methodology is utterly bonkers, with their Scottish subsample figures practically constituting works of fiction - so the fact that Opinium accounts for as much as one-seventh of today's sample effectively means that the SNP lead is being artificially adjusted downwards.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :
SNP 42.1% (-1.7)
Labour 26.9% (+3.0)
Conservatives 18.7% (+1.3)
Liberal Democrats 5.4% (-1.5)
Greens 3.6% (+0.3)
UKIP 3.0% (-1.5)
(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
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Kenny "Devo or Death" Farquharson live-tweeted Jim Murphy's speech at the Scottish Labour conference yesterday, and there was one line in particular that made me laugh -
"Reminds me of John Smith's platform speeches, some of which were awful."
It took a good twenty seconds for the implication to fully dawn on me. It was a bit like saying : "Jim isn't always a good public speaker, but then Jesus had his off days as well, which means...oh my God...wow."