Tuesday, February 24, 2015

SNP lead by 17% in new Poll of Polls

Today's update of the Poll of Polls is based on one full-scale Scottish poll from Survation, plus nine Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls - four from YouGov, two from Populus, one from ComRes, one from Ashcroft and one from Opinium.  I haven't previously been able to incorporate polls from Opinium, because they've only just started publishing geographical subsample figures.  However, that long-overdue step has coincided with them introducing a barking mad methodological change which has led to the SNP being severely downweighted.  It's particularly irritating that this has happened not long after Populus finally put their house in order to some extent.

I may go into more detail about Opinium's folly when I have the time, if only because I've got an alliterative title in mind for a blogpost, and it'll probably nag away at me until I get it out of my system.

Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :

SNP 43.3% (-0.5)
Labour 26.6% (+3.6)
Conservatives 16.6% (-1.2)
Liberal Democrats 5.6% (-1.4)
Greens 3.5% (+0.6)
UKIP 3.4% (-1.1)

(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

12 comments:

  1. Come on you Reds! The comeback is on!

    *cough*

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  2. On these figures Electoral Calculus gives SNP 37 gains, Lab 29 losses.

    SNP 43
    Lab 12
    Con 3
    LD 1

    *develops cold sweat*

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    1. I just entered the figures into EC and it gives:

      SNP - 46
      LAB - 11
      LIB - 1
      CON - 1

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    2. www.scotlandvotes.com gives:

      SNP - 44
      LAB - 11
      LIB - 2
      CON - 2

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    3. Lets be honest the SNP winning 40 plus seats in May would be an incredible result, particularly given FPTP, and the MSM's hatred of the SNP. Still over two months to go, but SLAB are in a terrible state.

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    4. I agree, muttley - based on this POP's figures, even if SLAB manage to take 4 points from SNP and reduce the lead from 17% to 8% between now and polling day, SNP should still get around 35 seats, and SLAB around 20. Worst case scenario for me.

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    5. Agreed. Was having a look at the bookies and as it stands the SNP are set to take 39 seats. Lots of marginal swings though and that includes predicted Labour seats.

      Is it possible for the SNP to poll higher?

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  3. *watching you sweat*

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  4. SNP lead now sub-20. The front bench will already be planning for the post-Sturgeon era.

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  5. The red Tories are in trouble !!!!

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  6. Survation sub-sample:

    SNP 50, Lab 25, Con 14, Others <4.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Feb-Mirror-tables.pdf

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  7. Survation/DailyMirror poll LAB 34% CON 28% UKIP 19% LDEM 10% GRNS 4%.

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