I decided to have a little peek at the Betfair odds for the Scotland v New Zealand match, just to see how impossible the task is rated as being, and sure enough the disparity in the odds is mildly embarrassing. But you'll be happy to hear that Scotland are much more highly fancied on one crucial measure, namely the outcome of the coin toss.
To win toss?
New Zealand 10/11
IMPLIED PROBABILITY OF SCOTLAND WINNING THE COIN TOSS : 50%
IMPLIED PROBABILITY OF NEW ZEALAND WINNING THE COIN TOSS : 50%
I must say that sounds more or less right to me. It's absolutely uncanny.
Huzzah for the bookies!
Huzzah for the Wisdom of Crowds!
I can't think of any other way I would ever have worked out that there is a 50% chance of winning a coin toss. My doubts have lifted at last - from now on, I'll definitely be joining Neil "Alligators" Lovatt and his fan club in ignoring scientifically-conducted opinion polls, and instead assuming that the best way of predicting election results is to look at spread-sheets examining the behaviour of wealthy Tory gamblers in minute detail.
(PS. Do you reckon this post is worth another "Eet Vos A Pleasure To Shrrrrred Eet, James"?)