For the third time in 2015 so far, the combined vote for the SNP and Plaid Cyrmu has reached 5% in the YouGov daily poll - which on this occasion leaves them just 1% behind the Liberal Democrats across Britain. You'll probably recall that we saw quite a few results like this towards the end of last year.
Britain-wide voting intentions (14th-15th January) :
Conservatives 32% (n/c)
Labour 32% (-2)
UKIP 16% (+1)
Greens 8% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
The Scottish subsample figures give the SNP their biggest lead of the year so far (and also the biggest since YouGov's methodology change) : SNP 49%, Labour 22%, Conservatives 13%, UKIP 7%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Greens 3%. The flipside is that, just for once, there hasn't really been any significant downweighting of respondents who say that the SNP is the party they most closely identify with. All the same, this gives an indication of the results we could probably expect on a regular basis if it wasn't for the distorting effect of Westminster-centric party ID weighting.
A GB-wide Ipsos-Mori telephone poll was also released yesterday. As ever, it gave two sets of voting intention figures - without the turnout filter, the SNP have a 39% to 28% lead in the Scottish subsample, and with the turnout filter the SNP lead by 43% to 21%. Technically the latter figures should be regarded as the headline result, but either way the sample size is absolutely tiny.
Someone who wishes to remain firmly incognito (never let it be said that I don't listen!) contacted me last night to suggest that I might like to scroll down through the Ipsos-Mori datasets, and take a look at the geographical breakdown of Ed Miliband's personal satisfaction rating...
Net satisfaction in Ed Miliband's performance as Labour leader :
North of England: -24
English Midlands and Wales: -38
South (excluding London): -36
Ouch, ouch, and thrice OUCH. This is starting to look like a consistent pattern.
I'll hold off from updating the Poll of Polls for the time being, because RevStu revealed yesterday that there are voting intention figures to come from the new full-scale Scottish poll conducted by Panelbase.
By the way, in case you missed my reply on the previous thread to a suspected "concern troll" (someone posing as a "concerned" supporter of independence in an attempt to sow division and lower morale), I've had a wizard idea for today -
In honour of Mr (or Ms) Anonymous, I propose that we declare today "Address Your Opponents With A Song In Your Heart" Day. I challenge all readers of this blog to say at least three nice things about Jim Murphy before each criticism, and that way we'll have converted the whole world to independence by teatime. I'll kick us off.
Jim, your bone structure is epic, you're considerate to your neighbours by having such a hushed voice, and I have no reason to believe that you're not kind to cute kittens. But do you really have to put a weapons system on the Clyde that has the sole purpose of mass-murdering hundreds of millions of men, women and children, and condemning the unlucky survivors to a slow, painful death through radiation poisoning?
* * *
UPDATE : There's a bizarre graphic on the Guardian website, purporting to illustrate the relative membership sizes of "the five parties". Yes, you're way ahead of me here - the SNP don't appear, in spite of being the third largest party in the whole UK, with far more members than three of the parties in the graphic. What makes it even more extraordinary is that the graphic is directly preceded by a passing reference to the SNP's membership numbers - apparently even that juxtaposition hasn't been sufficient to generate self-awareness at the Guardian's HQ about one of the more ludicrous examples of their London-centricity.
The whole London media are fast becoming a self-parody on this topic.