Friday, January 30, 2015

My appearance on Independence Live

A few hours ago, I was whisked off to a top secret location in the arctic tundra (or, by the wonders of modern technology, "Glasgow") to be interviewed by the brilliant Vince Docherty for Independence Live's Thursday Conversations series.  You can see most of it HERE - the first few minutes are missing due to a technical hitch, but the full recording will apparently appear on YouTube in a couple of weeks.  The discussion mostly focused on polls, but it also briefly covered the impact of Syriza's triumph in Greece.

In the interests of sheer vanity, by the way, can I just point out that my hair loss is not quite as severe as it appears in the video - the light was catching me at a very unfortunate angle!

Apparently it's a weekly tradition that they finish the evening by having soup, which I can report was absolutely delicious.  A post-soup group photo may well be appearing on Facebook, I gather.

And earlier in the day, I went to see First Minister's Questions for the first time.  Our local MSP Jamie Hepburn had reserved some tickets for SNP members, so I thought I might as well take the opportunity to go.  He also very kindly arranged a tour of the building, which was excellent, but left me more confused than ever about the "hidden meanings" of some of the architectural features.  Is it really possible for something to be simultaneously a hammer and a curtain?  (Or a leaf and an upturned boat?)

27 comments:

  1. Top man, James.

    Put it on now and watching.

    All the best

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  2. James Kelly wrote: "... my hair loss is not quite as severe as it appears in the video - the light was catching me at a very unfortunate angle!"

    Oh, absolutely! Happens all the time . . .

    Let me gently offer that most of us similarly afflicted have grasped this kind of straw at one point or another on the long journey to acceptance of the inevitable.

    One day you WILL complete all five stages of grief, and know peace.

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    1. The fifth stage of grief is complete baldness, Christian. You may already have arrived at that destination, but I've a way to go before I join you. (Sorry, but you did ask for that!)

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  3. Good interview - you should do more of these. Informative, interesting. The host's question I thought were well considered.

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  4. Excellent interview James, really enjoyed it.

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  5. Enjoyed watching it last night. We have the same ideas about time and events. Now past Christmas and almost to the end of the month the SNP support seem far more resilient than what happened in 2010. I suppose it does help having some active SNP branches working day in and day out such as here in Dundee.

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  6. Ah, Vince! I remember him from uni, way back in the the 90s :-)

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  7. SS's 10 poll PoP (UK Comres, Survation, Ashcroft, ICM, Opinium, MORI):
    48% SNP
    24% Lab
    14% Con
    6% Lib
    4% UKIP
    4% Green

    SS'd 10 poll Populus PoP with 2010 natID weight removed:
    48% SNP
    23% Lab
    16% Con
    6% Lib
    3% UKIP
    3% Green

    Populus really does look almost exactly like all the other main pollsters when you remove the 2010 ID weighting.

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  8. Thought provoking interview, James. I listened (not watched) twice to it, and enjoyed it both times.

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  9. Enjoyable and informative interview.

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  10. I forgot to ask: Do you know when Ashcroft's Scottish polling will be released?

    DDH

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  11. Next week - it probably won't be Monday, because that's when he releases his national poll.

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    1. He has issued marginal polls on Thursdays.

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  12. Is there any word about which seats he's polling?

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    1. Anecdotally, we know about Gordon and Glasgow Central. I'd be amazed if he hasn't polled Inverness, and Ross, Skye & Lochaber. Probably the three southernmost constituencies, if only to throw a bone to the Tories. There'll be quite a few.

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  13. Going by twitter a huge rake of SNP candidates were announced today. Michael Stewart missed out on Edinburgh West which seems a shame. Must be close to have all candidates announced now.

    Sadly Clackmannanshire gave Tasmina Mercenary a shot. Real shame as she really gives out all the wrong signals.

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    1. I don't really understand what some people have got against Tasmina - she's been in the SNP for a very, very long time now. I thought her reaction when she narrowly failed to be elected to the European Parliament was brilliant.

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    2. She's stuck with the SNP because she kept getting nominated for elections she then lost. She's no reason to move to a Greener Grass. But someone who was previously a member of the Conservative and Labour party does not come across as someone reliable, of conviction or remotely believable.

      I find nothing in anything I have read about her that does not confirm the apparently widely held view that she is an opportunistic egotist and would sell the SNP and Scotland out if she felt she would personally gain.

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    3. At the same time, I would argue that Labour would have been a much better bet for a careerist when she joined the SNP in 2000. She was also a member of the SNP for 14 years before she stood for an election.

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    4. Labour in Ochil will certainly be pleased at her selection. The leaflets practically write themselves. She'll probably still win, though.

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    5. I believe she will. Ochil is our #1 target, being the only Labour-SNP marginal. The party leadership are obviously pushing hard for her.

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  14. Does anyone know when the next poll with independence polling questions will be released? I'm interested to see how the oil crisis/Smith Commission proposals have affected opinion on the issue.

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    1. I took part in a YouGov poll last night which asked for voting intention, how certain I was to vote for that party, independence yes/no, oil price, fracking, trident and which party I thought was best for each issue. Could have been private, but the wording read like a poll for publishing to me.

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    2. We've already had some of these. Quite a few polls have been taken since the oil price drop and Smith.

      In most recent, MORI found Smith pushed people to indy. Panelbase, when hitting people in the face with a really leading 'oil price disaster' question before asking voting intention, still found a nice double digit lead for the SNP.

      On the oil price...

      American shale ponzi scheme is already going belly up. It was never profitable / sustainable, not even at £100 a barrel+, not with a 80%+ 3-year well decline rate. Companies leveraged to the max, junk bonds etc... Already laying off 1000's and going bust. Makes our loses in Aberdeen look tiny. When the shale drillers hedges (essentially insurance on barrel price for a period) run out, the whole thing will come tumbling down. Another sub prime (oil) debt bubble.

      It's why OPEC are saying they expect prices to be on the up again by the end of the year. They wanted to show the world that shale was a ponzi before other places went nuts, thought they could live the shale fantasy too, and flooded the market with yet more eyewareringly expensive (to produce) and environmentally disastrous oil that caused prices to temporarily tumble.

      We've no need to worry about fracking taking off in the UK. Not once the news here pics up on the crash in the states as it accelerates.

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