Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Alex Salmond's love of Blighty, and why nobody would notice if Ed Miliband was replaced by a bacon sandwich

You might be interested to know that the International Business Times have done an interview with Alex Salmond.  It sounds like they're going to run more than one piece about it, but you can read the first one HERE.

UPDATE : And more of the interview can be read HERE.

38 comments:

  1. Lord Ashcroft just tweeted something like "My my, these Scottish constituency polls are looking interesting" and a Tory account from the Borders somewhere wrote "the suspense is killing us!" in reply. David Maddox, reporter at the Scotsman, then tweeted "some interesting borders constituencies for you guys" directly to him or something like that.

    My hunch - the poll results are going to show SNP losing to the Tories in some of the borders seats. It's probably going to be bad for us - if it was another SNP wipe-out like the others then there's no reason why Ashcroft would say "my my, aren't these interesting". We'll probably see weird stuff like the Tories taking Aberdeenshire West or a borders seat or two (note - "constituencies" as referred to by Maddox, not singular) and maybe Labour doing better than people expect. I don't know.

    Prepare yourselves for inevitable comments of the SNP's juggernaut stalling and obligatory comments from my fellow nationalists of how it's just a reminder "no complacency" etc.

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    1. if it was another SNP wipe-out like the others then there's no reason why Ashcroft would say "my my, aren't these interesting"

      Except that he would want to hype up his own poll. And that it's the first constituency polling in Scotland in years, so whatever the results it's going to be interesting. Are you saying that if it predicted the SNP taking 40 seats from Labour it would be a yawnfest?

      But I agree in principle: expect the worst, hope for the best and all that.

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    2. "Prepare yourselves for inevitable comments of the SNP's juggernaut stalling and obligatory comments from my fellow nationalists of how it's just a reminder "no complacency" etc. "

      We're already campaigning and canvassing whereas the unionist parties are notable by their almost complete absence on the ground. It's crystal clear where the complaceny is right now and it's not us. It's an amusing idea that every political party and activist hangs on Ashcroft's every word but it's als twaddle.

      I'd also be inclined to take Ashcroft more seriously if he wasn't a tory millionaire who had to quit his party in disgrace or that he sponsors idiots like Smithson on Stormfront Lite to hype up his polls to laughable levels.

      Hype which, incidently, entirely explains the "interesting" comment. What else is he going to say? LOL 'Yeah my polling is pretty much in line with the far greater number and more up to date scottish polls and subsamples.'

      It's just more data and the value of it will be determined by the SNP's own private polling in constituencies as well as canvassing that is planned in a great many seats where we need to know how things are on the ground. If it's backed up by that kind of evidence then, sure, it's handy for a snapshot but it's hardly going to change much in the way of strategy since we already have a pretty good idea of where things will be toughest.

      Nor would I put much stock in tory surge predictions as I remember how laughably wrong they were in 2010. Incumbency is often overstated since, unless it's backed up by a ferociously efficient and very visible ground campaign, it's usually just a theoretical bonus that more often than not gets lost in the bigger party Vs party picture of a GE.

      There are unquestionably some incredibly useful things that can be gleaned from the totality of polling but the fact of the matter is we are not about to let any polling, good or bad, deflect us from working as hard as possible to overturn or slash some of these huge majorities. If the out of touch westminster twits don't realise that by now then are going to be in for one hell of a shock come May.

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    3. "But I agree in principle: expect the worst, hope for the best and all that."

      And never lose sight of it being one set of polls while I'm sure James and a few others on the site will be keen to check the actual detail of them rather than just the headline spin Ashcroft and others will inevitably put on them.

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    4. And just to back up what I said about them maybe only confirming what we already know apparently Ashcroft has said he thinks the SNP surge is "real".

      LOL

      No shit sherlock? Well that Is interesting. If it wasn't already bleeding obvious.

      *chortle*

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    5. Likely 2010 weighted which would make any SNP surge appear rather more subdued.

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    6. Daily Record PressmanJanuary 29, 2015 at 12:05 PM

      The NATS won a landslide in 2011 and never won any of the Border seats so expectations wont be high for them in this part of the country but I like your provocative spin.

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  2. I would expect the Tories to be the main challenger in Michael Moor's seat - you just need to look at the 2011 Holyrood results. His tweet could also mean that seats with large Labour majorities are now marginal. His sub-sample polls have been favourable to the SNP albeit the numbers in these sub-samples rather small.

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  3. Ah yes, Alex Salmond the anglophile. That one has always tickled me. Kind of like the whole "I'm not racist, but...". Surely nobody would actually believe a word of that?

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    1. Why would anyone disbelieve it, unless they buy into the nonsense about the SNP being "anti-English"?

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    2. It just seemed a little defensive. He'll be going at pains to insist that some of his best friends are English next!

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    3. When James Mackenzie randomly called me a "misogynist" who "obviously doesn't care for women very much", I was sorely tempted to point out that most of my friends are women - it might well have sounded defensive, but it would have had the virtue of being true.

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    4. I kind of wish he'd resisted the urge to make a bacon sandwich remark, too. It's the equivalent of calling him fat, or laughing at Jack McConnell's kilt.

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    5. As little Ed would say, "Wethpect!"

      LOL

      Funny how some play the racist card when it's blindingly obvious that it was the westminster twits who were falling over themselves to appear scottish not that long ago. Maybe we should have just implied little Ed, Cameron and calamity Clegg were racists for doing so? Some of the twits best friends are working class after all. ;)

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    6. I'm a francophile and married to one. I don't think Scotland should be ruled from Paris and my wife agrees with me.

      Have I just been anti-French?

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    7. "Have I just been anti-French?"

      Not at all. It's more if somebody defensively proclaimed to everyone how they're not actually anti-French and said how much they love the French really. The "I like the French, but...", "I'll have you know that all of my best friends are French" kind of thing. When a public figure feels the need to publicly deny something it's usually a pretty good indication that they're guilty of whatever it is they're denying.

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    8. I feel sure you've just been guilty of one of the classic logical fallacies, Stoat. I'll have a browse and see if I can identify which one.

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    9. Salmond's "I love England, me" bit is the mirror image of, and just as grim to watch as, Jim Murphy's constant screaming about how "patriotic" he is. At least this is just an occasional thing for Eck, though. Murph seems to have spent his entire time since becoming leader running around in a Scotland top.

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    10. Hey, I'm a mass of contradictions.

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    11. well, you are a unionist, are you not?

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    12. Stoat: "When a public figure feels the need to publicly deny something it's usually a pretty good indication that they're guilty of whatever it is they're denying."

      Well, you're a kinda public figure here on this public forum so, let's try it with you, shall we?

      Stoat, are you still beating your wife?

      And applying your dictum: "When Stoat feels the need to publicly deny something it's usually a pretty good indication that Stoat's guilty of whatever it is Stoat's denying."

      Either you deny the charge, indicating your guilt, or you do not defend yourself against the charge, indicating your guilt.

      Either way your response evinces guilt. Wonderful -

      Kinda like the medieval test to determine if a woman is a witch - tie her up, weigh her down, and throw her in the river. Wait for five minutes. If she floats, she's a witch and she will be burnt at the stake. If she drowns, she's exonerated. Either way, she's toast.



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  4. Main challenger is right - but to the SNP not anyone else. This looks entirely likely to be an SNP win come May.

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  5. Wonderfully inept Liberal PPB tonight.

    First half (clearly just the National one) no mention of the SNP.
    Second half Wee Wullie with the aspiration "please don't slam your door in our face".

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  6. I wonder what the Tory message is going to be. So far we have :-

    SNP - Vote SNP for a strong voice for Scotland. Positive, effective.
    Labour - We're changing, honest. Downbeat, pleading.
    Liberal - Please don't slam the door on us. Conceding, begging.

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    1. I thought the Labour message was "I know we're shit, but if you don't vote for us the Tories will get in and they're marginally worse."

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    2. The Libs one did very definitely look like an instructional video. 'Please keep the door open and talk to us like these people here!'

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  7. http://news.sky.com/story/1416764/snp-surge-is-real-says-pollster-lord-ashcroft

    Don't think the Ashcroft polls will be anything for the SNP to fear:


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  8. Sky News on the ball about who contested the Indy Ref: "Lord Ashcroft pointed to last year's Scottish independence referendum, where the SNP picked up 45% of the votes, as evidence of the surge."

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  9. Lord Ashcroft couldn't predict that his farts smell.

    I was having an epiphany (as you do) as regards the unionist sneering about low oil prices.

    The answer to the odious nerks is obvious.

    If Scotland was to become independent with oil at $130 a barrel then any future growth would be slight and the potential for a fall in price could cause trouble without the oil fund to balance out revenues.

    If Scotland was to become independent with oil at $50 a barrel then the only way is up. The price could drop to $0 and the impact would be smaller than the current fluctuation. And when the price rises again we're laughing all the way to jet-packs for everybody.

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    1. Concern Trolling becomes Nonsense Trolling.

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  10. Even if SNP only win 20 seats,Labour will have to answer if they do badly England

    A nightmare scenario

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  11. MickPork

    I am glad you are already leafleting and canvassing. Was discussing with a couple of fellow members in Edinburgh Central yesterday our concern that nothing is happening and none of the new members has been asked to do anything yet. I did though miss the last branch meeting as babysitting fell through.

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    2. I haven't been asked to do anything yet and was thinking I should wander over to Edinburgh West and stick my head round the door, has Michelle Thomson opened her constituency office yet?

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  12. I can't speak to every branch obviously and know mainly the west coast, but I've been told there is leafleting already going on in Edinburgh and more planned for saturday and sunday. As for canvassing, again from what I have been told there has been at least some in the Edinburgh area if not a huge amount as yet.

    New memberswise, unless something has gone very badly wrong they WILL have been contacted in your area at least via email and usually through the meetings. Sure, we aren't getting all 94,000+ out leafleting or canvassing (nobody ever thought we would) but I at least have been surprised by how many new members have already joined in with the 'regulars' this early. It will vary from area to area but I have no doubt that the closer May gets the more active people will get as the reception so far has been very good. The dire weather hasn't helped but it also hasn't stopped a good deal of work being done.

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  13. New YouGov poll in the wild. Just completed, Westminster, Holyrood and Independence questions as well as a number of opinion tests.

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  14. It'll be interesting to see the next poll on independence opinion. I'm really hoping it hasnt dropped due to the oil crisis.

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