After the false alarm on Friday, it looks like this morning's Britain-wide YouGov poll really is the last from the firm for this year. It's the Winter Solstice today, and the Lib Dems might just be wishing the darkness could swallow them up - once again they find themselves 2% behind the Greens, and just 1% ahead of the SNP and Plaid Cymru. And yet the broadcasters still haven't announced a change to their initial proposal to exclude the SNP, Plaid and the Greens from the leaders' debates. Just how much longer can this nonsense go on?
Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 18th-19th December) :
Labour 34% (-1)
Conservatives 32% (+2)
UKIP 15% (-1)
Greens 8% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
Even more importantly, the Scottish subsample gives the SNP an enormous 44% to 24% lead over Labour. So while Jim Murphy may think he's had a "good week", the polls beg to differ. Still, it's perfectly possible that proper, full-scale Scottish polls will pick up a change in attitudes that the Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls have thus far failed to detect, and the first test of that will come in a Survation poll that is apparently due in the Daily Record tomorrow. The last Survation poll gave the SNP a ridiculously big lead, so if that eases down only a little it might well be due to normal sampling variation. A big drop might be more significant (unless there's another methodological change, of course).
I'll hold off for Survation, and then calculate the final Poll of Polls update of this tumultuous year.