This afternoon has seen the publication of one of the most remarkable Britain-wide polls for many a year. Ipsos-Mori are now showing the SNP on an 8% share of the vote - in spite of the fact that Scotland comprises just 9% of the population of Great Britain! Strangely, the SNP are 'only' on 59% in the Scottish subsample - the apparent anomaly comes about because respondents in Scotland are more likely to say they are certain to vote. And it's perfectly possible that phenomenon will carry through (at least to some extent) to the election itself, due to the surge in public engagement caused by the referendum.
The Liberal Democrats are just 1% ahead of the SNP across Britain - and that's in spite of the fact that their 9% share is a touch higher than their recent average.
Britain-wide voting intentions (Ipsos-Mori) :
Liberal Democrats 9%
Plaid Cymru 1%
The combined share of 61% for the two 'major' parties is desperately low by historical standards, and with the Conservatives now holding a slight lead (which neutralises Labour's in-built advantage from the constituency boundaries), this could be another welcome sign that the UK political system is becoming more like India's - ie. hung parliaments and coalitions being the norm without proportional representation even having been introduced.
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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
This will be the last update of the Poll of Polls before the Panelbase poll drops out of the sample, so unless a new full-scale Scottish poll comes along soon we'll revert to being reliant on subsamples from GB-wide polls only. The Panelbase numbers make up exactly half the sample, with the other half drawn from ten subsamples - four from YouGov, two from Populus, one from Ipsos-Mori, one from Ashcroft, one from ICM and one from Survation.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :
SNP 43.6% (-1.6)
Labour 26.1% (-0.9)
Conservatives 15.9% (+0.3)
UKIP 6.3% (+0.4)
Liberal Democrats 4.7% (+0.4)
Greens 2.4% (+0.4)
(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)