The Holyrood figures from last week's astounding Ipsos-Mori poll have been belatedly released, and if you thought there was some kind of law of physics that would prevent the SNP's lead for Holyrood being even bigger than their humongous 29-point Westminster lead, you were wrong.
Holyrood constituency vote :
Liberal Democrats 6%
Holyrood list vote :
Liberal Democrats 6%
So it appears that the traditional differential between Westminster and Holyrood voting remains in place, but simply with the SNP operating at a much higher level than before. That said, the SNP's lead on the list is actually slightly smaller than their Westminster lead, probably because a chunk of their support is drifting to the Greens (and to a much lesser extent to the SSP) on that ballot. Of course, at the 2011 election, it was on the list vote that the SNP were significantly underestimated in the polls, with people proving much more likely to vote for the same party twice when they were actually faced with a real ballot paper.
One little problem with this poll is that the Greens are on 4% on the constituency ballot, even though on past form the party is likely to sit out most constituency contests altogether. So it's interesting to ponder where those votes would really go. Even if they broke 50/50 between the SNP and other parties, that would suggest a true SNP figure of 59%.
As noted last week, this poll was conducted between the 22nd and 29th of October, which means it spans three distinct periods - the three days prior to Johann Lamont resigning, a brief period when the media were claiming that either Gordon Brown or Jim Murphy might be taking over, and then a longer period when it was clear that Jim Murphy was the sole frontrunner. So a decent chunk of the respondents to this poll were giving the SNP an enormous lead in the full knowledge that Murphy was the Labour leader-in-waiting they were probably rejecting.
By the way, am I the only person who is dumbfounded that Murphy has given a huge hostage to fortune by repeatedly claiming that Labour will hold every single one of their Scottish seats at next year's UK general election? He's even taken personal responsibility for that prediction by stating that he knows how to make it happen. Now I do appreciate that there are plenty of pessimists/realists about the SNP's prospects of holding on to their current lead, but from Labour's point of view you'd still have to be a super-optimist not to think you're in major trouble in at least a handful of particularly vulnerable seats, such as Falkirk and Ochil & South Perthshire.
Not that it will be at all funny to see Murphy having his words played back to him next May, or anything like that.